Jump to content

2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?

Reagan1k

By Reagan1k
in Business and Markets

 Share

Recommended Posts

jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45899

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, UTGrad98 said:

Ordered 2 sandwiches 2 cups of soup and 2 drinks from pot belly last week. Paid over 40 dollars. Haven't eaten out since. I have been wanting to save money for years by eating at home for lunch with my work. Started that last week. We are saving a ton. All it took was a 40 dollar fast food bill.

Big tipper.  I just priced that order out on their website and it's under $30 with tax.  (This is in Austin, I don't know where you are.)

I will say this -- if you order a drink from a fast food joint and you have concerns about cost, that's not smart.  $2.20 for a 25 cent product, and it's watered down to boot.  Good job.

Final comment:  ordering from PotBelly if there is a Thundercloud Subs within a mile or two (again, Austin, but choose your own local deli) and paying a greater than 40% premium, that's not smart.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 7.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

52-80
52-80
Bateshorn
Bateshorn

The only thing more predictable than the GOP running up huge deficits on tax cuts and military spending, is each one suddenly becoming horrified by deficit spending 5 mins after a Democrat is sworn in

PilotsError
PilotsError

Posted Images

Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, UTGrad98 said:

Ordered 2 sandwiches 2 cups of soup and 2 drinks from pot belly last week. Paid over 40 dollars. Haven't eaten out since. I have been wanting to save money for years by eating at home for lunch with my work. Started that last week. We are saving a ton. All it took was a 40 dollar fast food bill.

Soup must cost a lot there or you’re ordering double meat on your large sandwiches. I go there regularly and it’s not more than $12 ever, even with a cookie. I get a regular sandwich, chips and a medium drink.  If you get a large drink, you’re getting raped. If you get it to-go, you’re just going to smell up your office. A medium tea or soft drink at the restaurant will get you unlimited refills. 

Thundercloud is far superior, but I have no idea on the cost difference.  Potbelly is good for a hot sandwich, but Thundercloud is the best. Would love to open a franchise Tcloud here in Dallas. I’m sure it’d go over like a wet fart on silk panties. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45899

Posted
Posted
43 minutes ago, Porterhouse said:

Would love to open a franchise Tcloud here in Dallas. I’m sure it’d go over like a wet fart on silk panties. 

I've had 2 kids work there, and it's pretty solid behind the scenes, not to mention the bread and subs are good.  It also doesn't seem like a Dallas kind of joint.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

I've had 2 kids work there, and it's pretty solid behind the scenes, not to mention the bread and subs are good.  It also doesn't seem like a Dallas kind of joint.

There are multiple reasons I intimated it wouldn’t work here. That is one. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
RDCanecutter

RDCanecutter 26411

Posted
Posted
14 hours ago, UTGrad98 said:

Ordered 2 sandwiches 2 cups of soup and 2 drinks from pot belly last week. Paid over 40 dollars. Haven't eaten out since. I have been wanting to save money for years by eating at home for lunch with my work. Started that last week. We are saving a ton. All it took was a 40 dollar fast food bill.

True. When you stop eating out, it's like you found a way to print a $20 bill every day. Then after a month, your old jeans fit again.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Immaculate Vibes

Immaculate Vibes 114

Posted
Posted

https://www.ft.com/content/6bed7dff-f5e2-4105-a948-449f2d80ad32
 

Bold policy response needed to restore Fed credibility on inflation

 

Spoiler

Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found here. 
https://www.ft.com/content/6bed7dff-f5e2-4105-a948-449f2d80ad32

Suggesting that the US Federal Reserve needs to stop lagging behind inflationary developments on the ground is the polite way of describing what the world’s most powerful central bank must do when its policy committee meets this week. More bluntly, the Fed needs immediately to stop its asset-purchase programme, guide markets towards expecting three and possibly more interest rises this year and bring forward to March the announcement of plans to reduce its balance sheet. It also needs to explain how it has managed to get its inflation call so wrong and why it is so late in reacting properly. Without that, it will struggle to regain the policy narrative and restore its credibility. Since the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee last met on December 14-15, the US headline consumer price index breached 7 per cent. The core measure of rising prices has gone above 5 per cent with broadening drivers. Unemployment has fallen below 4 per cent while labour force participation has remained unchanged, stuck below pre-pandemic levels. Moreover, the Fed’s estimate for its preferred measure of inflation — the core personal consumption expenditure index — for 2021 is 4.4 per cent, more than double what it projected a year ago, and the 2022 forecast has been raised to 2.7 per cent. Further upward revisions in 2022 are surely on the cards. All these data points speak directly to the Fed’s mandate. They suggest that monetary policy should no longer be accommodating. Yet it is still uber stimulative, and on track to remain so for a while. Rather than tapping on the brakes, the Fed still has its foot on the accelerator: real interest rates after taking into account inflation are extremely negative. While it is on course to stop its quantitative easing stimulus programme at the end of this quarter, it continues to inject funds into a marketplace sloshing with liquidity. No wonder financial conditions have remained historically loose despite a dramatic shift in analysts’ policy calls since Fed chair Jay Powell belatedly “retired” the “transitory” characterisation of inflation at the end of November. Forward-looking inflationary pressures continue to be fuelled not just by producer price increases still to make it through the system but also by persistent labour shortages, more supply-side disruptions and a further 10 per cent leg up in oil prices in January. Having grossly mischaracterised inflation for most of 2021 and missed one policy window after another, the persistently late Fed policy reaction risks what Powell himself warned is a “severe threat” to livelihoods. Accordingly, at its meeting this week, it should send a clear message that it is serious in addressing inflationary pressures. This should be done via an immediate ending of QE, forward guidance on three interest rate rises and signalling that the balance of risks has tilted to tighter policies. The Fed should schedule for March the announcement of its “quantitative tightening” plan. To make all this credible, officials must also come clean on why they so badly misread inflation for so long (as noted before, I believe this will go down in history as one of the central bank’s worst inflation calls), and explain how they are now better at incorporating a broader set of bottom-up indicators into its macro modelling and forecasts. This is what I believe the Fed should do. I worry that it won’t, however. Marked by the experience three years ago when market volatility forced it into a U-turn (that is, reverting to more accommodative monetary policy even though the economy did not warrant it), the Fed may well favour a more gradual approach. Indeed, there is a window for such an approach to deliver an orderly adjustment in policy that avoids some combination of prolonged hot inflation, a slowdown in economic growth and unsettling financial volatility. But that window is very small and highly risky. Judged in terms of risk scenarios, the threat to society is one of a persistently slow Fed being forced later this year into an even bigger bunching of contractionary monetary measures. The result would be otherwise avoidable harm to livelihoods, greater financial instability, a higher risk of domestic stagflation and a greater threat to global economic and financial wellbeing. The Fed has an opportunity this week to catch up to realities on the ground and regain some of its lost credibility. To do so, it will need to be bold. Continuing on its current path risks another, significantly more disruptive policy error later this year.

 

  • Like 1
  • Fuck You 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

Taco Casa is a useful tool. Whatever tool that is where, if something is blocked up, the tool will get it flowing again. That tool.

Taco Casa can help with the chip shortage?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Laxtonto

Laxtonto 12080

Posted
Posted
16 hours ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

 

Increase fuel prices + increased ammonia prices + potential increased fed rate + major spike in inflation of daily goods and farm equipment used  in farming in comparison to last year could easily drive some ag products to the moon. 
 

The real question is which is driving it and can it be curbed? When we have one of these market forces happening farmers can generally price in these fluctuations and the consumer costs stay relatively flat. 
 

Combine them all, and I could see a major spike in ag commodities. The question is which ones and how soon.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Parliament

Parliament 14255

Posted
Posted (edited)

Sure.  Now recalculate for $3.50 corn.  Because we're due for a year above trendline yield.

And do you mind if I ask where you live and what you do?  I sell ag tech in western MN.

ETA

If NC corn is $5.40 for you, you're in a strong basis region, and I bet able to market against Sept futures.  If that's true, you're not gonna see $3.50 soon.

Edited by Parliament
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Royalfan5

Royalfan5 2354

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Parliament said:

Sure.  Now recalculate for $3.50 corn.  Because we're due for a year above trendline yield.

And do you mind if I ask where you live and what you do?  I sell ag tech in western MN.

ETA

If NC corn is $5.40 for you, you're in a strong basis region, and I bet able to market against Sept futures.  If that's true, you're not gonna see $3.50 soon.

I'm a farmer oriented commodity broker in Nebraska with clients in Colorado, Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, Missouri, and Minnesota. Feed cattle from time to time too. I'd agree we are due for a good year, which why were making sure guys are getting more ahead than they usually are. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Blotto

Blotto 23497

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

7.5.   Seven point fucking Five 

 

Quote

Consumer prices in January surged more than expected over the past 12 months, indicating a worsening outlook for inflation and cementing the likelihood of substantial interest rate hikes this year.

The consumer price index, which measures the costs of dozens of everyday consumer goods, rose 7.5% compared to a year ago, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

That compared to Dow Jones estimates of 7.2% for the closely watched inflation gauge. It was the highest reading since February 1982.

Stripping out volatile gas and grocery costs, the CPI increased 6%, compared to the estimate of 5.9%.

The monthly rates also came in hotter than expected, with headline and core CPI both rising 0.6%, compared to the estimates for a 0.4% increase on both measures.

Core inflation rose at its fastest level since August 1982.

On a percentage basis, fuel oil rose the most in January, surging 9.5% as part of a 46.5% year-over-year increase. Energy costs overall were up 0.9% for the month and 27% on the year.

Vehicle costs, which have been one of the biggest inflation contributors since it began surging higher in the spring of 2021, were flat for new models and up 1.5% for used cars and trucks in January. The two categories have posted respective increases of 12.2% and 40.5% over the past 12 months.

Shelter costs, which make up about one-third of the total CPI number, increased 0.3% on the month, which is the smallest gain since August 2021 and slightly below December’s increase. Still, the category is up 4.4% over the past year and could keep inflation readings elevated in the future.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19069

Posted
Posted

One more big reading in front of us (March report showing February numbers) and then we should be back to normal as it will be in comparison to last year after inflation took off. 
This was baked in and always going to happen this month. I don’t know who was saying 7 but my market guys were dead balls on saying 7.5.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19069

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Buy the dip, assholes?

Nah. I’m just saying if you listen to smart people as opposed to morons on the TV none of this should have come as a surprise. One more month and then the headlines will go away, more or less.  Life got a lot more expensive in the last year. I doubt it gets cheaper. But I also doubt it’s going to keep getting lots more expensive. 

Edited by Wulaw Horn
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Cheeseweasel

Cheeseweasel 26438

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Nah. I’m just saying if you listen to smart people as opposed to morons on the TV none of this should have come as a surprise. One more month and then the headlines will go away, more or less.  Life got a lot more expensive in the last year. I doubt it gets cheaper. But I also doubt it’s going to keep getting lots more expensive. 

So what you are saying is "it's a huge shit sandwich and we're all gonna have to take a bite"

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
gsoda3

gsoda3 3254

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

One more big reading in front of us (March report showing February numbers) and then we should be back to normal as it will be in comparison to last year after inflation took off. 
This was baked in and always going to happen this month. I don’t know who was saying 7 but my market guys were dead balls on saying 7.5.  

 

1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Nah. I’m just saying if you listen to smart people as opposed to morons on the TV none of this should have come as a surprise. One more month and then the headlines will go away, more or less.  Life got a lot more expensive in the last year. I doubt it gets cheaper. But I also doubt it’s going to keep getting lots more expensive. 

 

there were a few analysts saying it, but not many were saying 7%.  the street average was 7.3%. 

 

it's hard to fault the general public for reacting in a strong way when those who should know (and are assumed to be smart) have been so wrong from the jump.  it's not just the "morons on the tv" who were wrong.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19069

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, gsoda3 said:

 

 

there were a few analysts saying it, but not many were saying 7%.  the street average was 7.3%. 

 

it's hard to fault the general public for reacting in a strong way when those who should know (and are assumed to be smart) have been so wrong from the jump.  it's not just the "morons on the tv" who were wrong.  

Look- if it would have come in at 7 which was the expectation people would still have been off to the races writing articles and tweeting and the like. 
the point I was making (and sorry if it wasn’t clear) was that this number was always going. To look awful, next months number will look awful and then after that it will start to seriously drop bc we will be comparing YOY pricing to a point in time last year after the elevator went up, as opposed to before it happened. Hope that makes sense. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing


Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business and Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Subscribe!... Donate!... Advertise... COOKIE MONSTER!

×
×
  • Create New...