2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?

[Fudge Nuggets 19190]

We've been getting shit raises for the last few years (1.5 - 3.0%) and got a 3% raise this year.  However the yearly bonuses have been pretty good, this year's was over 30% of my yearly base so no complaints there.  I would probably look for something else but I'm way overpaid for the little amount of work I have to do.

[UTGrad98 2272]

1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

We've been getting shit raises for the last few years (1.5 - 3.0%) and got a 3% raise this year.  However the yearly bonuses have been pretty good, this year's was over 30% of my yearly base so no complaints there.  I would probably look for something else but I'm way overpaid for the little amount of work I have to do.

I think you and I have the same job

[Shaggy3.0 1695]

On 4/1/2022 at 1:36 PM, CHIEF said:

Just filled up the F350...LOL

Still not full.

CHIEF

Meh.  Just eat less.  It's healthy.

[Fudge Nuggets 19190]

3 hours ago, UTGrad98 said:

I think you and I have the same job

I seriously put in at max 20 hrs of real work a week (usually more like 10 hrs) and wind up in the highest tax bracket  by blind luck. I keep my head down and answer the D&I quiz questions the way “they” want and hope the checks keep coming. 

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

 

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

This was a really good listen. I may have linked to a piece by this Zoltan guy in the CR like a dummy, but here they discuss more in depth the impact of sanctions. Basically with the idea of risk free central bank FX reserves irreparably tarnished, we will have decreased demand for treasuries over time. This as our necessary debt issuance continues to grow. The only solution at scale will be more QE and debt monetization by the Fed. Inflationary for us obviously. 
 

Also he predicts some shift to governments stockpiling commodities with their surpluses rather than buying foreign govt bonds. Part of a shift from just in time supply chains to just in case accumulation. China has a head start on that. For instance they hold 50% of global wheat stockpiles while we hold 6%.
 

Also discusses why central banks are poorly equipped to deal with any slowdown that results from this. You can’t print oil or iron ore etc. A lot to consider. 
 

 

 

[CHIEF 5081]

15 hours ago, Shaggy3.0 said:

Meh.  Just eat less.  It's healthy.

Eating Ramen and frozen pizza from the Dollar General in Knox City this weekend. Life doesn’t get any better. Only gonna cost $450 in diesel for the privilege. 
CHIEF

[Johnny Chimpo 478]

53 minutes ago, CHIEF said:

Eating Ramen and frozen pizza from the Dollar General in Knox City this weekend. Life doesn’t get any better. Only gonna cost $450 in diesel for the privilege. 
CHIEF

Don’t forget to give a shout-out to the Knox city greyhounds while you’re there. 
 

 

Edited April 3, 2022 by Johnny Chimpo

[Blotto 23498]

Quote

Aldi: (grocery) Purchase prices should increase by up to 50 percent

Aldi (german discount supermarket) does not want to give exact figures. According to Funke information, however, the group assumes that the purchase prices for groceries could become between 20 and 50 percent more expensive in the next few weeks.

Meat, sausage and dairy products are to become “significantly more expensive” from Monday, as the group confirms. According to information from our editorial team, a surcharge of around 30 percent is planned for butter.

Because of the war, there is currently no (livestock food) supply. Because there is no feed for the animals, fewer pigs, cattle and above all chickens are raised. "Food in Germany now costs more money than ever before," writes the agricultural organ "Agrarheute

Because of their sheer size alone, Aldi Süd and Aldi Nord are trendsetters when it comes to pricing in German food retail. "We expect that the sales prices in the entire trade will rise considerably in the coming months,"

 

Inflation is no picnic here, but shits about to get real in Europe it appears. 

[Parliament 14258]

12 minutes ago, Blotto said:

 

Inflation is no picnic here, but shits about to get real in Europe it appears. 

Boo fucking hoo.  Sleep with a dog; wake up with fleas.

[CHIEF 5081]

56 minutes ago, Blotto said:

 

Inflation is no picnic here, but shits about to get real in Europe it appears. 

Brisket better bring Cabrito home.

CHIEF

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

11 hours ago, Blotto said:

 

Inflation is no picnic here, but shits about to get real in Europe it appears. 

Yikes. That’s scary time shit if we are talking overnight type increases. Like potential fall of

governments/uprisings in the street type stuff if food prices rapidly go up 50%. 

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

Governments are transitory. 

[52-80 19151]

12 hours ago, Blotto said:

 

Inflation is no picnic here, but shits about to get real in Europe it appears. 

So the germans grocers are learning to be greedy capitalists like americans, right

[52-80 19151]

Cold spell hitting europe and gas/lectric

prices blowing through the roof again

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

13 hours ago, Parliament said:

Boo fucking hoo.  Sleep with a dog; wake up with fleas.

What are you insinuating?

[Parliament 14258]

I'm insinuating Germany deserves a large share of the blame for the unpleasantness in Ukraine.   Specifically, they got high on all that sweet Russian natural gas, and ignored the inevitable hangover.  Also I'm just mad.

Edited April 4, 2022 by Parliament

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

1 hour ago, Parliament said:

Also I'm just mad.

*Surly

[ChickenSandwich 9834]

On 4/3/2022 at 9:29 PM, Parliament said:

 

Edited April 5, 2022 by ChickenSandwich

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

 

Here’s the historical numbers. 

 

[crash_davis 23108]

 Inflation for consumers. Record profits for companies. 

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exxon-signals-record-quarterly-profit-oil-gas-prices-2022-04-04/?utm_source=reddit.com

HOUSTON, April 4 (Reuters) - Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM.N) on Monday said its first-quarter results could top a seven-year quarterly record, with operating profits from pumping oil and gas alone of up to $9.3 billion.

A snapshot of the largest U.S. oil company's quarter ended March 31 showed operating profits from oil and gas, its biggest unit, could jump by as much as $2.7 billion over the prior quarter's $6.6 billion.

Exxon does not hedge, or lock in oil sales, and results generally match changes in energy prices. Russia's invasion of Ukraine pushed up oil by 45% last quarter over the final period of 2021, to an average of $114 per barrel, the highest in seven years. read more

The estimates suggest total earnings for the quarter of about $9.8 billion at the mid-point of Exxon's estimates, according to Scotiabank global equity research.

Exxon shares, which have jumped 36% year to date, rose slightly on Monday to $83.16. Official results are expected to be released on April 29, according to a securities filing.

The outlook implies adjusted earnings around $2.29 per share, Scotiabank analyst Paul Cheng said in a note. The total would guarantee Exxon its highest quarterly profit since at least 2014.

The blockbuster oil and gas profits offer a preview of what lies ahead for other firms' oil earnings. Such results could strengthen calls by U.S. and European Union lawmakers for windfall profit taxes on energy companies.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-01-18/supply-chain-crisis-helped-shipping-companies-reap-150-billion-in-2021

Shipping Companies Had a $150 Billion Year. Economists Warn They’re Also Stoking Inflation

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

18 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

Inflation for consumers. Record profits for companies. 

Oil companies made money during record oil price increases? Color me shocked.

Show me percentages, not dollars, regardless. If I'm paying 30% more for everything, I expect my top line to rise accordingly. How much went below the bottom line is all that matters.

[crash_davis 23108]

6 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Oil companies made money during record oil price increases? Color me shocked.

Show me percentages, not dollars, regardless. If I'm paying 30% more for everything, I expect my top line to rise accordingly. How much went below the bottom line is all that matters.

Shell bought cheap Russian oil for a few days after the war started. Russia was trying to dump their oil for cash. Shell finally stopped after getting hammered in the news. The prices at the pump continued to rise during this cheap buying spree. 

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

1 hour ago, crash_davis said:

 Inflation for consumers. Record profits for companies. 

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exxon-signals-record-quarterly-profit-oil-gas-prices-2022-04-04/?utm_source=reddit.com

HOUSTON, April 4 (Reuters) - Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM.N) on Monday said its first-quarter results could top a seven-year quarterly record, with operating profits from pumping oil and gas alone of up to $9.3 billion.

A snapshot of the largest U.S. oil company's quarter ended March 31 showed operating profits from oil and gas, its biggest unit, could jump by as much as $2.7 billion over the prior quarter's $6.6 billion.

Exxon does not hedge, or lock in oil sales, and results generally match changes in energy prices. Russia's invasion of Ukraine pushed up oil by 45% last quarter over the final period of 2021, to an average of $114 per barrel, the highest in seven years. read more

The estimates suggest total earnings for the quarter of about $9.8 billion at the mid-point of Exxon's estimates, according to Scotiabank global equity research.

Exxon shares, which have jumped 36% year to date, rose slightly on Monday to $83.16. Official results are expected to be released on April 29, according to a securities filing.

The outlook implies adjusted earnings around $2.29 per share, Scotiabank analyst Paul Cheng said in a note. The total would guarantee Exxon its highest quarterly profit since at least 2014.

The blockbuster oil and gas profits offer a preview of what lies ahead for other firms' oil earnings. Such results could strengthen calls by U.S. and European Union lawmakers for windfall profit taxes on energy companies.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-01-18/supply-chain-crisis-helped-shipping-companies-reap-150-billion-in-2021

Shipping Companies Had a $150 Billion Year. Economists Warn They’re Also Stoking Inflation

You know what would limit profits? Price controls. We should look into that. 

Edited April 5, 2022 by Immaculate Vibes

[crash_davis 23108]

2 minutes ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

You know what would limit profits? Price controls. We should look into that. 

Not the answer. This is simply a supply and demand issue, although maximizing profits sometimes has a way of fucking common people. 

 

 

[Parliament 14258]

Yeah I got fucked by not owning enough Exxon stock.

[Muny_Tex 293]

You know what would limit profits? Price controls. We should look into that. 

Is this a serious post? If so, Robert Mugabe applauds your highly innovative strategy


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[workswithseed 2103]

13 minutes ago, Muny_Tex said:

Is this a serious post? If so, Robert Mugabe applauds your highly innovative strategy


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

It's not.

[StassneyHorn 6575]

Exxon had it pretty rough, just like all of us. 

[Parliament 14258]

I try to avoid getting sucked into this sorta thing, so I'll drop some levity and go to bed.   Exxon had a great quarter.  A great 24 months even.  But index to back before the Pandemic, and they haven't tracked as well.  We can each pick our starting points to illustrate our respective points.

I'm not gonna bemoan corporations for being successful.  Good for Exxon.  Wish I owned some of their stock.

 

[fattyflattie 4639]

3 hours ago, Parliament said:

I'm not gonna bemoan corporations for being successful.  Good for Exxon.  Wish I owned some of their stock.

 

QFMFT. 
 

Oh noes, a company did well when everything came together for a minute. 

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

And more pain to come sadly. 

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

Pain is transitory. Take two aspirin and see me in the morning.

[crash_davis 23108]

I don't think anyone is saying that Exxon shouldn't make a profit. For the uneducated, it's going to look bad when inflation is through the roof. Some will see it as corporate greed, others will see it as maximizing profits. Others will put stickers on gas pumps because they are too fucking stupid for their own good.

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

14 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

I don't think anyone is saying that Exxon shouldn't make a profit. For the uneducated, it's going to look bad when inflation is through the roof. Some will see it as corporate greed, others will see it as maximizing profits. Others will put stickers on gas pumps because they are too fucking stupid for their own good.

Thanks for sharing. 
 

Anyway, coming to a country near you.

 

Hold on to your butts

[Shaggy3.0 1695]

2 hours ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Pain is transitory. Take two aspirin and see me in the morning.

But when I do this, I can't boner up.

[workswithseed 2103]

8 minutes ago, Shaggy3.0 said:

But when I do this, I can't boner up.

Getting old sucks.

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

54 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

Others will put stickers on gas pumps because they are too fucking stupid for their own good.

Others will donate to groups that build mansions with their donations and are too stupid to realize they are getting played.

[fattyflattie 4639]

4 hours ago, crash_davis said:

I don't think anyone is saying that Exxon shouldn't make a profit. For the uneducated, it's going to look bad when inflation is through the roof. Some will see it as corporate greed, others will see it as maximizing profits. Others will put stickers on gas pumps because they are too fucking stupid for their own good.

Sir, most of our politicians are very well educated.  

[Blotto 23498]

18 hours ago, Parliament said:

 Good for Exxon.  Wish I owned some of their stock.

 

XOM has been a dogshit stock for the last 15 years. Sure it pays a dividend, but most years that is 2-4 percent, rarely eclipsing 5 percent. SPY and QQQ are far, far better investments

Here's XOM's net income over the last 10 years:

My guess is that over the next 15 years, the major indexes will continue to kick the shit out of the oil majors. O&G isn't going to disappear over night, but the boom days are over. 

Edited April 6, 2022 by Blotto

[fattyflattie 4639]

38 minutes ago, Blotto said:

XOM has been a dogshit stock for the last 15 years. Sure it pays a dividend, but most years that is 2-4 percent, rarely eclipsing 5 percent. SPY and QQQ are far, far better investments

 

I had a big chunk of money tied up in them for years.  The Div was nice but there was way better places to park. I broke out eventually and now this shit. Happy for those still in but what a kick in the nuts. I’ve been snakebit with XOM every time I’ve traded them. 

[UT_OB1 2220]

There hasn’t been enough positive in this thread, so I’ll start: lumber is back down to only about double what it was pre-pandemic. A little bit of sarcasm thrown in but it is a nice teen and I hope it continues so I don’t need to bring an armed guard to HD to get lumber for framing. 
 

To get back on track though, from one of our suppliers this morning:

 

I want to provide you an update on the impact of the Sulfur market.  For 2Q22, the Green Market Sulfur index has settled.  The index is now $481/LT, up $199 from the 1Q22 index of $282/LT.   It’s a big move for sure.   The only other time the price has been at this level was in 2008 when it hit $617 before falling to -0- a few months later at the start of the 2009 recession. 

[Johnny Chimpo 478]

Not sure about all the other sources of sulfur but At least some of the very high h2s oilfields that would create a lot of pure sulfur for the global markets have moved to reinjection of high h2s gas for reservoir pressure maintenance. 

[3adays 454]

It cost me $30.00 (before tip)for a plate of puffy tacos and margarita at Amaya’s Taco Village today. This inflation shit is really getting out of hand. 

[statsman 5461]

Economic questions-

1. Is it going to take a big raise in interest rates to bring inflation back under control? (That will cause a recession, right?)

2. Are we (the west, the mainstream) done with MMT?

3. Would some smart, federal budget moves (shoring up SS and Medicare for long term, reforming health insurance to be like Switzerland’s) do anything to help with inflation structural causes?

[Snake Diggity 4622]

3 minutes ago, statsman said:

Economic questions-

1. Is it going to take a big raise in interest rates to bring inflation back under control? (That will cause a recession, right?)

2. Are we (the west, the mainstream) done with MMT?

3. Would some smart, federal budget moves (shoring up SS and Medicare for long term, reforming health insurance to be like Switzerland’s) do anything to help with inflation structural causes?

1. There’s still the probability (imho) that the inflation we are seeing is related more to supply chain and labor force issues than the money supply.  We need a period (6+ mo?) of relative stability (no pandemic, no precipice of world war) before we can determine whether rates should be raised dramatically.  I am still hopeful that inflation begins to level off by the 2nd half of the year.

2. No.  
 

3. I don’t think those moves would have an outsized impact against the causes of the inflation we are currently seeing.

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

1 hour ago, statsman said:

Economic questions-

1. Is it going to take a big raise in interest rates to bring inflation back under control? (That will cause a recession, right?)

2. Are we (the west, the mainstream) done with MMT?

3. Would some smart, federal budget moves (shoring up SS and Medicare for long term, reforming health insurance to be like Switzerland’s) do anything to help with inflation structural causes?

1- In the same way that globalization was deflationary, de-globalization will be inflationary so the amount that interest rate hikes will help over time is tbd. 
 

2- Nope. See other posters here blaming most of the inflation on Covid supply chain/Ukraine. Minimal acknowledgment of monetary expansion’s role. Also, best to ignore its role, because we are stuck with mmt. Actually will accelerate more going forward. As I laid out in other posts, Fed is going to have to step in and monetize more debt in the future. 
 

3- not politically feasible. Might be too late anyway. The next 5-10 years a lot is going to happen. 

Edited April 7, 2022 by Immaculate Vibes

[Parliament 14258]

1 hour ago, statsman said:

Economic questions-

1. Is it going to take a big raise in interest rates to bring inflation back under control? (That will cause a recession, right?)

2. Are we (the west, the mainstream) done with MMT?

3. Would some smart, federal budget moves (shoring up SS and Medicare for long term, reforming health insurance to be like Switzerland’s) do anything to help with inflation structural causes?

1.  Printing all that money and giving it to people willy nilly was a mistake.  If you really need to print money, be more surgical when you give it away.  That said, much of what we're seeing now is supply-driven.  Chinese supply chain and now Russia taking all of that commodity supply coming offline.  Not sure the fix for that.  I guess the Federal Government could expedite oil well permits and such.  That would help...some.  Seems to me though, that it's gonna suck for awhile.

2.  Politically, it's still a "winner."  Look at how a few States are looking to send "gas rebates" back to people willy nilly.

3.  No.  Fixing healthcare is necessary, but the benefits would come years downrange.  

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

17 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Printing all that money and giving it to people willy nilly was a mistake. 

End thread.

Add QE to the mix (a program which should have ended years ago) and you're fucked.

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

Quote

 

The increased global demand for specialty chemicals, the tight supply of most raw materials and significant logistical issues have resulted in extraordinary inflation of our costs throughout last year. It has proven impossible to predict how different materials and services are impacted by inflation and our efforts so far have failed to recover the cost increases already incurred and those that will be implemented soon. We are therefore announcing a price increase, effective on all deliveries on or after May 1, 2022. 

We thank you for your understanding during this unique and challenging time for our industry. We value our partnership and remain committed to providing consistent, high quality products and services.

 

Another day, another supplier letter announcing increases.