2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?

[statsman 5,462]

Thanks for the replies. I don’t want to fall into the trap of thinking all phenomena are caused by US policy (US monetary policy is having only a minor impact on inflation in the other side of the globe). However, it seems like, if we’re going to have to take some medicine, getting our economic house in order first would be a good idea.  This would help reduce the time spent in recession and help accelerate out of it. 
That’s why I think shoring up plans for covering long term entitlement obligations and restructuring health insurance for economy and efficiency would be good ideas. 

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

Just now, statsman said:

US monetary policy is having only a minor impact on inflation in the other side of the globe

That's not true. The dollar is the world's currency. Anything we do to fuck it up has global implications.

[Snake Diggity 4,622]

I think it’s possible we could enter a fairly severe recession and still see extremely low unemployment.  I think we could see all of these things happen at the same time:

Recession caused by inflation

Continued low unemployment 

Continued increases in home values

The thing I really don’t have a guess on is what the impact of those things would be on rates, stocks, and medium/long term economic growth.

Edited April 7, 2022 by Snake Diggity

[Incredulity 11,669]

I don't see how, if we are using the generally agreed to definition of "recession".

Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP will not result in "continued low unemployment".

 

Right now we have a sort of Boom-flation.  We all seem to be kind of waiting for the feather that breaks the camels back with demand and price increases.  As the saying goes, the cure for high prices is high prices.

 

 

[Trey3216 15,346]

1 hour ago, statsman said:

Thanks for the replies. I don’t want to fall into the trap of thinking all phenomena are caused by US policy (US monetary policy is having only a minor impact on inflation in the other side of the globe). However, it seems like, if we’re going to have to take some medicine, getting our economic house in order first would be a good idea.  This would help reduce the time spent in recession and help accelerate out of it. 
That’s why I think shoring up plans for covering long term entitlement obligations and restructuring health insurance for economy and efficiency would be good ideas. 

It would be, but there is little to no political or consumer will for any of these things to be shored up.   

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

I think it’s possible we could enter a fairly severe recession and still see extremely low unemployment.

Doubtful. Recession by definition is a contraction of GDP. If GDP goes down, it means consumer purchasing went down. If goods aren't being sold, people get laid off. 

[tbone_ 14,118]

Doubtful. Recession by definition is a contraction of GDP. If GDP goes down, it means consumer purchasing went down. If goods aren't being sold, people get laid off. 

I could see a way since the labor force participation rate is so low

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

1 minute ago, tbone_ said:

I could see a way since the labor force participation rate is so low

Possible. And if the Government keeps printing money and handing it out without getting "goods and services" for it, we'd be toast.

[Snake Diggity 4,622]

1 hour ago, Incredulity said:

I don't see how, if we are using the generally agreed to definition of "recession".

Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP will not result in "continued low unemployment".

 

Right now we have a sort of Boom-flation.  We all seem to be kind of waiting for the feather that breaks the camels back with demand and price increases.  As the saying goes, the cure for high prices is high prices.

 

 

GDP could shrink and if there’s enough slack in the demand for workers then unemployment would remain low, especially if  unemployment benefits were decreased/shortened.  

42 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Doubtful. Recession by definition is a contraction of GDP. If GDP goes down, it means consumer purchasing went down. If goods aren't being sold, people get laid off. 

Depends on how much slack there is in the demand for workers. 

24 minutes ago, tbone_ said:

I could see a way since the labor force participation rate is so low

Participation isn’t actually that low, relatively to history, especially for prime working age.  A lot of what people are seeing as low participation is just olds retiring a few years early.

 

Edited April 7, 2022 by Snake Diggity

[CHIEF 5,082]

On 4/7/2022 at 10:48 AM, Cheeseweasel said:

Doubtful. Recession by definition is a contraction of GDP. If GDP goes down, it means consumer purchasing went down. If goods aren't being sold, people get laid off. 

The items are already sold.  Maybe it's possible to keep unemployment low just producing items already paid for. Wishful thinking is that we see the supply chain catch up, shit is back on shelves, and things get back closer to normal.

CHIEF

[torre 1,285]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10701089/Bank-America-analyst-warns-clients-recession-shock-coming-days.html

 

Above article released this PM,  lengthy with several charts.    Presented for comments.  Note Dalio's comments.  Economics is not my field or forte.

Excerpts:

A Bank of America analyst warned that the U.S. economy is deteriorating fast and could push the country into a recession just three days after Deutsche Bank predicted the fall to come in 2023 as the Federal Reserve tightens interest rates to tame surging inflation.  

BofA chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett wrote in a note to clients: ''Inflation shock' worsening, 'rates shock' just beginning, 'recession shock' coming.'

Dalio argued that the Fed now faces a bind in which rate hikes will either be too low to reduce inflation, or too high for the economy to withstand.

'So what you have is an enough tightening by the Federal Reserve to deal with inflation adequately, and that is too much tightening for the markets and the economy,' he said.

'The Fed is going to be in a very difficult place a year from now as inflation still remains high and it starts to pinch on both the markets and the economy,' Dalio explained.

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

This is a great chart. When do things break? Idk but unsustainable. 
 

 

[StassneyHorn 6,575]

When is our debt due? 

[Fudge Nuggets 19,190]

On 4/6/2022 at 3:39 PM, Blotto said:

Sure it pays a dividend, but most years that is 2-4 percent, rarely eclipsing 5 percent.

The dividend rate is based on the price you paid for the stock whenever you bought it and the size of the dividend paid while you hold it.  It has fuck all to do with the current stock price unless you just bought it that day.

I bought XOM back in 2020 and have a 10.5% dividend yield until they cut the dividend payment.  I’m betting the dividend goes up before they ever cut it.

[Blotto 23,498]

1 minute ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

The dividend rate is based on the price you paid for the stock whenever you bought it and the size of the dividend paid while you hold it.  It has fuck all to do with the current stock price unless you just bought it that day.

I bought XOM back in 2020 and have a 10.5% dividend yield until they cut the dividend payment.  I’m betting the dividend goes up before they ever cut it.

No shit? As I didn't plan on addressing every possible individual dividend rate over the last 15 trading years, I thought stating the usual dividend range is as useful as any other measure.  Congratulations on purchasing XOM when its dividend rate temporarily spiked above 10%, but for the vast majority of XOM shareholders that simply isn't the case. My point remains that XOM has had shitty returns for the last 15 years and both SPY and QQQ proved to be better investments. My guess is that will be the case for the next 15 years as well. 

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

1 hour ago, StassneyHorn said:

When is our debt due? 

Never. Remember we have the reserve currency and can print money to monetize our debt. We’ll never default officially. What happens because of that? We’re all going to find out. 

[Parliament 14,258]

1 hour ago, StassneyHorn said:

When is our debt due? 

When our debtors invade America and start taking our assets.

[Fudge Nuggets 19,190]

1 hour ago, Blotto said:

My point remains that XOM has had shitty returns for the last 15 years and both SPY and QQQ proved to be better investments. My guess is that will be the case for the next 15 years as well. 

I wouldn’t assume both SPY and QQQ are going to return 10.5% a year for the next 15 years.  They might, but it’s not a no brainer.

[Muny_Tex 293]

Our first signs of rationing/hoarding/desperation driven by shortages have now appeared with regard to baby formula.

Is beef/chicken next? Any other guesses?

https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/9525498002

“Among the states hit worst with baby formula supply shortages, according to Datasembly: Minnesota had the highest out-of-stock percentage for the week of March 13th at 54%, followed by Connecticut, Hawaii, Iowa, Louisiana, Maryland, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota and Texas, all at 40% or higher.

Cities with the highest out-of-stock rates: San Antonio (56%), Minneapolis (55%), and Des Moines (50%), for the week of March 13. Houston, New Orleans, and Oahu were above 45%.”

[StassneyHorn 6,575]

1 hour ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

Never. Remember we have the reserve currency and can print money to monetize our debt. We’ll never default officially. What happens because of that? We’re all going to find out. 

We’ll all be dead, so your fear porn posts can end as well

[Blotto 23,498]

50 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I wouldn’t assume both SPY and QQQ are going to return 10.5% a year for the next 15 years.  They might, but it’s not a no brainer.

I doubt they will either, but the vast majority of XOM shareholders aren't getting a 10.5% dividend payout across all their holdings either (they likely aren't getting close to half of that). You seem stuck on that 10.5% dividend return like your personal investment success with XOM is relevant to anyone but you. The dividend today is ~4% which is much closer to the typical range over the last 15 years. My original statement was simply that XOM has been a shitty investment over the last 15 years when compared to a shit ton of other stocks and the major indexes. I don't really see how that can be argued. For performance over CY2022 alone, its probable that O&G stocks will perform better than the indexes. But if I'm looking forward 15 years and had to make the purchase tomorrow, I'm  buying SPY or QQQ over XOM and its 4% div, and probably not giving it more than 15 seconds thought. 

[StruggleBus 3,922]

9 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

We’ll all be dead, so your fear porn posts can end as well

Should we treat global warming the same way then? I mean, we'll all be dead by the time it matters so who cares, right?

[Incredulity 11,669]

49 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

Should we treat global warming the same way then? I mean, we'll all be dead by the time it matters so who cares, right?

 

live look at Surly leftists 

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

10 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

We’ll all be dead, so your fear porn posts can end as well

“In the long run we are all dead”

Keynes 

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

[Royalfan5 2,354]

11 hours ago, Muny_Tex said:

Our first signs of rationing/hoarding/desperation driven by shortages have now appeared with regard to baby formula.

Is beef/chicken next? Any other guesses?

https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/9525498002

“Among the states hit worst with baby formula supply shortages, according to Datasembly: Minnesota had the highest out-of-stock percentage for the week of March 13th at 54%, followed by Connecticut, Hawaii, Iowa, Louisiana, Maryland, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota and Texas, all at 40% or higher.

Cities with the highest out-of-stock rates: San Antonio (56%), Minneapolis (55%), and Des Moines (50%), for the week of March 13. Houston, New Orleans, and Oahu were above 45%.”

Given that beef production continues to run above year ago levels, and we are seeing the best daily runs since 2019, I wouldn't worry about beef. Bird flu on the chickens should wrap up by early June, and pork is starting to close the gap a bit on the disease losses from last year. Feed availability is ahead of a year ago as well. 

[StassneyHorn 6,575]

3 hours ago, StruggleBus said:

Should we treat global warming the same way then? I mean, we'll all be dead by the time it matters so who cares, right?

We already do nothing and are dying it from it today. There are no negative consequences to pursuing green energy.

Edited April 11, 2022 by StassneyHorn

[StassneyHorn 6,575]

1 hour ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

“In the long run we are all dead”

Keynes 

“Look at these debt charts that don’t list assets”

 

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

11 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

We already do nothing and are dying it from it today. There are no negative consequences to pursuing green energy.

That’s a pretty hot take.
 

If only there were some way to examine potential economic and geopolitical consequences of prioritizing green energy over other forms of energy. 

[StassneyHorn 6,575]

No it isnt

[Incredulity 11,669]

[StassneyHorn 6,575]

Try again

[StruggleBus 3,922]

1 hour ago, StassneyHorn said:

There are no negative consequences to pursuing green energy.

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

1 hour ago, StassneyHorn said:

There are no negative consequences to pursuing green energy.

Funneling money to the 1% has no negative consequences. 

[StassneyHorn 6,575]

15 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

Don’t be afraid to list the dangers of investing money into renewable energy that doesn’t apply to investing money in fossil fuels

[StassneyHorn 6,575]

16 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Funneling money to the 1% has no negative consequences. 

Can’t imagine the hubris in posting this when the alternative is funneling money to 1%ers that lied about effects of global warming knowingly for decades.

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

10 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Can’t imagine the hubris in posting this when the alternative is funneling money to 1%ers that lied about effects of global warming knowingly for decades.

It's the same 1%ers my guy.

[StassneyHorn 6,575]

Lol

[Trey3216 15,346]

15 hours ago, Muny_Tex said:

Our first signs of rationing/hoarding/desperation driven by shortages have now appeared with regard to baby formula.

Is beef/chicken next? Any other guesses?

https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/9525498002

“Among the states hit worst with baby formula supply shortages, according to Datasembly: Minnesota had the highest out-of-stock percentage for the week of March 13th at 54%, followed by Connecticut, Hawaii, Iowa, Louisiana, Maryland, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota and Texas, all at 40% or higher.

Cities with the highest out-of-stock rates: San Antonio (56%), Minneapolis (55%), and Des Moines (50%), for the week of March 13. Houston, New Orleans, and Oahu were above 45%.”

It's a family effort to make sure our 5 month old has formula.  My wife and I, my parents, her mom, her sister...  It's an asswhipping hunting for formula.  Shit keeps me up at night sometimes.  

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

4 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

It's a family effort to make sure our 5 month old has formula.  My wife and I, my parents, her mom, her sister...  It's an asswhipping hunting for formula.  Shit keeps me up at night sometimes.  

Your 5 month old should just learn to farm and drive an electric car.

[UTGrad98 2,272]

1 hour ago, Trey3216 said:

It's a family effort to make sure our 5 month old has formula.  My wife and I, my parents, her mom, her sister...  It's an asswhipping hunting for formula.  Shit keeps me up at night sometimes.  

Have the nanny feed her. 

[TxTower 651]

When is our debt due? 

Debt is due at the maturity date. In the case of our govt debt, it is due when various Treasury bills and notes mature, typically in the 1 -30 yr range. At maturity, these debts must either be repaid with cash or refinanced at current market rates with lenders who will continue to buy our debt.

I have a question - why does talk of inflation cause you vaginal irritation?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Trey3216 15,346]

 

 

[bschoolprof 6,252]

the putin price hike.  

[Blotto 23,498]

March CPI numbers released tomorrow before market open. If my memory is correct, last month SPY opened up down a decent amount before recovering later in the day.

Quote

Estimates are that inflation rose at an annual rate of 8.4% last month, surpassing February’s 7.9% reading and the fastest pace since the early 1980s. The monthly rise is expected to be 1.2%. That would be a record for the recent era of low inflation.

The monthly report will reflect the full brunt of the run-up in energy prices caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in late February. While the price of a barrel of oil has fallen since then to around $100 from as high as $139 and along with it the cost of a gallon of gas, that drop will not be reflected in March’s number.

Should be interesting if they are trying to set the expectation in Psaki's press conference. SPY puts and UVXY calls loaded for the open!

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

8 minutes ago, bschoolprof said:

the putin price hike.  

The cost of freedom. 

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

4 minutes ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

The cost of freedom. 

Laughs in Raytheon. 

[StassneyHorn 6,575]

2 hours ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Your 5 month old should just learn to farm and drive an electric car.

Babies nowadays acting like millennials 

[StassneyHorn 6,575]

1 hour ago, TxTower said:

Debt is due at the maturity date. In the case of our govt debt, it is due when various Treasury bills and notes mature, typically in the 1 -30 yr range. At maturity, these debts must either be repaid with cash or refinanced at current market rates with lenders who will continue to buy our debt.

I have a question - why does talk of inflation cause you vaginal irritation?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

No vaginal irritation here, you must be confusing me with those crying about an extra 20 dollars for gas, how much the upkeep of their pools have gone up, or the cost of French fries for their Disney vacations in these dark, terrible, times.