2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?

[UT_OB1 2,224]

4 hours ago, hornbri said:

Rules

Yeah, I don’t believe him. @Wulaw Horn prove it! 

[StassneyHorn 6,635]

Giving kids in the US free or discounted lunches does not lead to worldwide inflation in food prices.

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

14 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Giving kids in the US free or discounted lunches does not lead to worldwide inflation in food prices.

One car driving over a bridge doesn't destroy it. Continuing to print money to cover our debts/problems is the issue. 

Quote

 

Spending

The government expects to spend $6.011 trillion in 2022. More than 65% of that pays for mandated benefits such as Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.

Discretionary spending pays for everything else. It will be $1.688 trillion. The U.S. Congress appropriates this amount each year using the president's budget as a starting point. 

Interest on the U.S. debt is estimated to be $305 billion.1 Interest on the approximate $30 trillion federal debt is the fastest-growing federal expense.3 The CBO expects net federal interest costs to double by 2031 and triple by 2051.4

The U.S. Treasury must pay the interest to avoid a U.S. debt default. A debt default by the U.S. has unknown consequences because it has never happened.

 

https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-federal-budget-breakdown-3305789

[StassneyHorn 6,635]

That didn’t help

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

3 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

That didn’t help

Sorry, I don't have the time nor the crayons to explain it to you.

[StassneyHorn 6,635]

One car driving on a bridge doesn’t break it as a an explanation to why giving discounted or free lunches to kids in the US causes worldwide food inflation shows the thought process of someone who eats crayons.

1.3 trillion in deficit spending was cut in the budget compared to the last guy. You should be ecstatic.

Edited April 13, 2022 by StassneyHorn

[StruggleBus 3,922]

24 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

One car driving on a bridge doesn’t break it as a an explanation to why giving discounted or free lunches to kids in the US causes worldwide food inflation shows the thought process of someone who eats crayons.

1.3 trillion in deficit spending was cut in the budget compared to the last guy. You should be ecstatic.

Would you shut the fuck up already? Your schtick is old and not funny

Edited April 13, 2022 by StruggleBus

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

24 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

1.3 trillion in deficit spending was cut in the budget compared to the last guy.

Budget does not equal actual. This doesn't include Ukraine spending / Build Back Better. Soooo...Ooops! It's gone.

[StassneyHorn 6,635]

11 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

Would you shut the fuck up already? Your schtick is old and not funny

No schtick here. When a posters only reasoning is “big numbers bad” and “c’mon dude really” nobody learns anything.

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

2 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

No schtick here. When a posters only reasoning is “big numbers bad” and “c’mon dude really” nobody learns anything.

If posting the CBO's report doesn't educate you, I can't help you. But I'm sure you get your news from sources that are "all over" the inflation mess we are currently in and have blamed the people you don't like. Keep circle jerking.

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

40 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

One car driving on a bridge doesn’t break it as a an explanation to why giving discounted or free lunches to kids in the US causes worldwide food inflation shows the thought process of someone who eats crayons.

1.3 trillion in deficit spending was cut in the budget compared to the last guy. You should be ecstatic.

Shitty fiscal policy is really a both sides issue.  No need to CR it. 

[StassneyHorn 6,635]

5 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

If posting the CBO's report doesn't educate you, I can't help you. But I'm sure you get your news from sources that are "all over" the inflation mess we are currently in and have blamed the people you don't like. Keep circle jerking.

If posting the budget is 1.3 trillion less than the previous guys, maybe you could take a second to think who is doing more to fight off inflation with “less big numba.” Following that up with citing Build Back Better in budget discussions when it hasn’t even passed is hysterical.

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

18 minutes ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

Shitty fiscal policy is really a both sides issue.  No need to CR it. 

100%. No one has the balls to fix it because it would cost them re-election.

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

12 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

If posting the budget is 1.3 trillion less than the previous guys, maybe you could take a second to think who is doing more to fight off inflation with “less big numba.” Following that up with citing Build Back Better in budget discussions when it hasn’t even passed is hysterical.

Let's see if the budget matches the spend. 

Hint: it rarely does.

[CHIEF 5,095]

22 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

She's still too young for milk mixed in.  Like I said, we've been lucky so far that every week someone in our family was at the store at the right time to procure a can, but it definitely sits on your mind a bit.  Tried to order some on Amazon this morning and I had an estimated delivery of next THursday (we'd be out by then) but a guaranteed delivery of the week after that.  Can't wait around for that.  

CHIEF Jr.'s pediatrician was William Halden, https://www.kvue.com/article/news/local/austin-doctor-retires-after-59-years-as-pediatrician/269-260110653. He was also my wife's pediatrician, when she was little. He started fortifying CHIEF Jr.'s milk/formula from the day he was born with Gerber Rice cereal. He said formula is going to be extremely expensive and the cereal would help stretch it by filling him up. It worked, it also worked for a new couple that lived in our old Austin neighborhood. Their son couldn't sleep through the night, first child, and they were at their wits end.

Take a dime size diameter pile, put it in the bottle with the formula/milk. Take the bottle nipple and cut a small "X" to enlarge the hole so the thicker formula can get through, shake it up, and you are set.

Sorry to derail the thread a bit, but always looking to help.

CHIEF

Edited April 13, 2022 by CHIEF
The shake.

[Trey3216 15,352]

3 minutes ago, CHIEF said:

CHIEF Jr.'s pediatrician was William Halden, https://www.kvue.com/article/news/local/austin-doctor-retires-after-59-years-as-pediatrician/269-260110653. He was also my wife's pediatrician, when she was little. He started fortifying CHIEF Jr.'s milk/formula from the day he was born with Gerber Rice cereal. He said formula is going to be extremely expensive and the cereal would help stretch it by filling him up. It worked, it also worked for a new couple that lived in our old Austin neighborhood. Their son couldn't sleep through the night, first child, and they were at their wits end.

Take a dime size diameter pile, put it in the bottle with the formula/milk. Take the bottle nipple and cut a small "X" to enlarge the hole so the thicker formula can get through, shake it up, and you are set.

Sorry to derail the thread a bit, but always looking to help.

CHIEF

We have been supplementing with rice cereal as well.  She's a heavy eater.  

[Incredulity 11,682]

https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2022/march/why-is-us-inflation-higher-than-in-other-countries/

 

 

Conclusion

The United States is experiencing higher rates of inflation than other advanced economies. In this Economic Letter we argue that, among other reasons explored by the literature, the sizable fiscal support measures aimed at counteracting the economic collapse due to the COVID-19 pandemic could explain about 3 percentage points of the recent rise in inflation. However, without these spending measures, the economy might have tipped into outright deflation and slower economic growth, the consequences of which would have been harder to manage.

 

[52-80 19,231]

1 hour ago, Incredulity said:

https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2022/march/why-is-us-inflation-higher-than-in-other-countries/

 

 

Conclusion

The United States is experiencing higher rates of inflation than other advanced economies. In this Economic Letter we argue that, among other reasons explored by the literature, the sizable fiscal support measures aimed at counteracting the economic collapse due to the COVID-19 pandemic could explain about 3 percentage points of the recent rise in inflation. However, without these spending measures, the economy might have tipped into outright deflation and slower economic growth, the consequences of which would have been harder to manage.

 

Yeap, it's high for everyone due to global supply effects.

Yeap, many of them also have had deleterious fiscal and monetary policies.

Yeap, US y/y inflation is *higher* than other advanced economies. 

Yeap, some of them are even way worse because of dire economic backdrop (chiefly deteriorating production)

 

People who want to narrow this down into such a single causal factor like "it IS/ISNT due to putin/biden/leekumkee/willsmith" can go fuck themselves

 

[Incredulity 11,682]

61.14%

 

is that bad?

[WBT 20,654]

Erdogan has no idea what he's doing.

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

32 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

willsmith

I'm not convinced.

[52-80 19,231]

1 minute ago, Cheeseweasel said:

I'm not convinced.

keep my price hike out yo mothafuckin mouth

[52-80 19,231]

38 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

61.14%

 

is that bad?

genuinely feel bad for people like those who legitimately cant afford disruptions like that.  americans, for the large part, are way better buffered than them

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

2 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

genuinely feel bad for people like those who legitimately cant afford disruptions like that.  americans, for the large part, are way better buffered than them

Truth. It always hits the poorest of the poor harder. 

[Skipper 6,193]

So when does the demand side start getting hit.  Anecdotal but restaurant reservations in Dallas at popular spots seem harder to get than ever, airfare/hotels for summer travel skyrocketing, etc. etc.   Not until middle class maxes out credit cards?  Just curious for those following more closely whether any behavioral changes have started showing up in data.  

[jimmyjazz 46,104]

3 hours ago, Cheeseweasel said:

100%. No one has the balls to fix it because it would cost them re-election.

Except for the part that the budget deficit tends to drop under ___ administrations and rise under ___ administrations.  No CR.  Fill in your own blanks, but just be honest.

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

6 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Except for the part that the budget deficit tends to drop under ___ administrations and rise under ___ administrations.  No CR.  Fill in your own blanks, but just be honest.

What a simplistic view of how our economy works.

[Trey3216 15,352]

57 minutes ago, WBT said:

Erdogan has no idea what he's doing.

He did during that fake coups  

[jimmyjazz 46,104]

1 minute ago, Cheeseweasel said:

What a simplistic view of how our economy works.

Had I claimed it was a doctoral dissertation on our economy, you might have a point.  It's a correlation, and one that half the country always downplays.  Odd.

[Trey3216 15,352]

12 minutes ago, Skipper said:

So when does the demand side start getting hit.  Anecdotal but restaurant reservations in Dallas at popular spots seem harder to get than ever, airfare/hotels for summer travel skyrocketing, etc. etc.   Not until middle class maxes out credit cards?  Just curious for those following more closely whether any behavioral changes have started showing up in data.  

It's already starting.  Monthly rail freight's post COVID peak was last May, and has been flattish ever since.  Heavy truck purchases are declining and approaching levels only reserved for recessionary environs (Granted, some of that is sever supply shortages in new trucks. Friends with a guy that owns a massive Volvo/Mack dealership that has an order for 330 trucks from McLane, and could only sell him 50 because there's no more inventory).    But freight is always a good leading indicator of economic activity.  

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-13/freight-and-shipping-slowdown-show-u-s-growth-is-vulnerable

[52-80 19,231]

28 minutes ago, Skipper said:

So when does the demand side start getting hit.  Anecdotal but restaurant reservations in Dallas at popular spots seem harder to get than ever, airfare/hotels for summer travel skyrocketing, etc. etc.   Not until middle class maxes out credit cards?  Just curious for those following more closely whether any behavioral changes have started showing up in data.  

Looking at household/consumer debt probably helps fill out the picture.

If people can still run up their CC for cheap, and simultaneously can hold off on new apparel and other CPI components, theres still appetite to spend on expensive fuel and rent and etc. 

With the way housing pricing has been, I do wonder if a spike in rates (carried over into ARM) will be what topples this whole thing all over, again

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

15 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

It's a correlation,

Of what? Recessions? Boom Economies? Pandemics? Congress (who controls the cash)? 

Correlation does not equal causation. 

 

[jimmyjazz 46,104]

1 minute ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Of what? Recessions? Boom Economies? Pandemics? Congress (who controls the cash)? 

Don't be fatuous.  POTUS proposes the budget.

 

Quote

Correlation does not equal causation. 

Great lesson, ace.  That's why I used the word.

[Wulaw Horn 19,147]

4 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Don't be fatuous.  POTUS proposes the budget.

 

Great lesson, ace.  That's why I used the word.

Serious question- what is the last presidential budget (either president with either side controlling congress) that's actually been looked at or considered for more than 5 seconds?  I don't necessarily mean a spending priority here or there, my sense is that it's a time waste and no attention is paid to the submission, as a general rule and at all times.  Did I get that wrong?

[jimmyjazz 46,104]

18 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Serious question- what is the last presidential budget (either president with either side controlling congress) that's actually been looked at or considered for more than 5 seconds?  I don't necessarily mean a spending priority here or there, my sense is that it's a time waste and no attention is paid to the submission, as a general rule and at all times.  Did I get that wrong?

I don't think it's always ignored.  It's step 1 of the process for laying out discretionary spending.

The very fact that the correlation exists should say something, but only Republicans can CR up the DT, so I'm out.

[Incredulity 11,682]

Just now, jimmyjazz said:

but only Republicans can CR up the DT, so I'm out.

you've done a fine job on this page.

 

Also,

 

[jimmyjazz 46,104]

2 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

you've done a fine job on this page.

 

Also,

 

 

 

I quite literally did not, but you're not known for your insight.

[Incredulity 11,682]

couldn't stay away, could ya?

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

5 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

but only Republicans can CR up the DT, so I'm out.

[jimmyjazz 46,104]

15 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

couldn't stay away, could ya?

I'm not having this argument.  I am happy to post on this thread, and will remain doing so.

I've asked this before -- were you dropped on your head as a toddler?  You really struggle.

[Incredulity 11,682]

22 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

so I'm out.

Your words, brain genius.

[jimmyjazz 46,104]

7 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Your words, brain genius.

Wow, let's slow down for the kid on the short bus:  out of the discussion about budget deficits and POTUS political party.

How high was the drop?

[Incredulity 11,682]

1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

POTUS political party

Still CR'ing.

 

What a bitchass.

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

3 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Still CR'ing.

Things are tough for the stuttering bird poop guy so they have to take it out on someone.

Edited April 13, 2022 by Cheeseweasel

[jimmyjazz 46,104]

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

3 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

[jimmyjazz 46,104]

 

 

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

Solid retort

[jimmyjazz 46,104]

Best of the best, both sides.

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

Just now, jimmyjazz said:

Best of the best, both sides.