2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?

[Incredulity 11675]

1 hour ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

here you'll find a list of posts made by @StruggleBus @workswithseed @Incredulity @Immaculate Vibes @Cheeseweasel @BabaYaga  decrying the explosion in our national debt from 2016-2020:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MMT has entered the chat

 

How’s that working out for ya?  Fucking brain genius 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

Just now, Incredulity said:

 

MMT has entered the chat

 

How’s that working out for ya?  Fucking brain genius 

one post.

then, while you're at...find one post where i've even hinted that our skyrocketing debt isn't a huge fucking problem.

[tbone_ 14128]

Would you bitches please shut the fuck up

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

1 minute ago, tbone_ said:

Would you bitches please shut the fuck up

i'm all for a serious convo on fiscal policy. it shouldn't include these shameless fucking clowns.

[gmr548 16580]

428k jobs added in April, slightly above expectations. One would think this has to taper off at some point soon as we're getting pretty close to pre pandemic employment totals, with a labor pool that's shrunk by millions of workers.

It is very sad to see a thread ostensibly about economics just be a hacky political circle jerk rooting for a recession to make *name of political party removed because not CR* look bad.

There's interesting, good faith discussion to be had, as the current economic situation, and really the entire timeline going back to March 2020, is unprecedented in all of our lifetimes... but this thread is a clown show.

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

Just now, gmr548 said:

428k jobs added in April, slightly above expectations. One would think this has to taper off at some point soon as we're getting pretty close to pre pandemic employment totals, with a labor pool that's shrunk by millions of workers.

It is very sad to see a thread ostensibly about economics just be a hacky political circle jerk rooting for a recession to make *name of political party removed because not CR* look bad.

There's interesting, good faith discussion to be had, as the current economic situation, and really the entire timeline going back to March 2020, is unprecedented in all of our lifetimes... but this thread is a clown show.

Agreed for the most part although it’s hard at times to separate fiscal and monetary policy since they can be intertwined. 

 

14 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

find a single fucking post where anyone quoted above decried the explosion in national debt from 2016-2020.

one post.

My old account was nuked. I’ve been a consistent advocate of fiscal sanity and sound money to the point of probably being annoying to a lot of people. GFY. 
 

 

[Hefeweizen 5328]

5 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

428k jobs added in April, slightly above expectations. One would think this has to taper off at some point soon as we're getting pretty close to pre pandemic employment totals, with a labor pool that's shrunk by millions of workers.

It is very sad to see a thread ostensibly about economics just be a hacky political circle jerk rooting for a recession to make *name of political party removed because not CR* look bad.

There's interesting, good faith discussion to be had, as the current economic situation, and really the entire timeline going back to March 2020, is unprecedented in all of our lifetimes... but this thread is a clown show.

There is no good faith discussion with people who have an agenda.  
 

I see nothing but bad news right now except full employment.  That is an interesting conundrum isn’t it?  How do you leverage that while trying to put brakes on inflation?

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

6 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

There's interesting, good faith discussion to be had

you're absolutely right, but not with the clowns i called out. 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

35 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

There is no good faith discussion with people who have an agenda.  
 

I see nothing but bad news right now except full employment.  That is an interesting conundrum isn’t it?  How do you leverage that while trying to put brakes on inflation?

doesn't appear there's a smooth way to get ourselves out of the corner we've boxed ourselves into. pain cometh.

Edited May 6, 2022 by DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt

[bernorange 8362]

21 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

i'm all for a serious convo on fiscal policy. it shouldn't include these shameless fucking clowns.

Take it to the fucking CR you dingus.  We talking about inflation in this thread.

[workswithseed 2112]

2 hours ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

here you'll find a list of posts made by @StruggleBus @workswithseed @Incredulity @Immaculate Vibes @Cheeseweasel @BabaYaga  decrying the explosion in our national debt from 2016-2020:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wait, what? There was a whole discussion of how this could lead to stagflation from there. Go ahead and read it. 

 

Edited May 6, 2022 by workswithseed

[Parliament 14260]

Guys, please take it to the CR.

[Incredulity 11675]

1 hour ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

you're absolutely right, but not with the clowns i called out. 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

1 hour ago, workswithseed said:

Wait, what?

It's like you want to prove my point...

 

your concern...in april of 2020, is noted.

[workswithseed 2112]

10 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

It's like you want to prove my point...

 

your concern...in april of 2020, is noted.

So you didn't mean to add 2020 then. 

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19103]

2 hours ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

Agreed for the most part although it’s hard at times to separate fiscal and monetary policy since they can be intertwined. 

 

My old account was nuked. I’ve been a consistent advocate of fiscal sanity and sound money to the point of probably being annoying to a lot of people. GFY. 
 

 

Your old account was nuked because you are a fucking troll.  You have been crowd sourced from this site 2-3 times, but keep coming back like a cockroach.

[workswithseed 2112]

7 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Your old account was nuked because you are a fucking troll.  You have been crowd sourced from this site 2-3 times, but keep coming back like a cockroach.

It's like you have no power. 

As someone who loves to brag that others don't know how taxes work, and how cool you are. What's your way to work out of stagflation? 

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19103]

18 minutes ago, workswithseed said:

It's like you have no power. 

As someone who loves to brag that others don't know how taxes work, and how cool you are. What's your way to work out of stagflation? 

Not engaging with you, mental midget. 

[workswithseed 2112]

1 minute ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Not engaging with you, mental midget. 

K

[Fudge Nuggets 19206]

On 4/28/2022 at 9:39 AM, Trey3216 said:

Been discussing with some mortgage folks I know and the real rates needed to ease the housing price freight train are in the 12-15% range. 

I saw multiple posts in wulaw's mortgage thread where board members were re-financing with ARMs.  I shook my head wondering if those posters blocked out 2007 / 2008 from their memories.

[BLKNSTY 289]

We have: an incredibly strong dollar, sustained high levels of inflation, rising interest rates, stock market off by 15% from recent highs with tech stocks down 30%, high fuel costs, very low unemployment, a record number of job openings, rising wages, stagnant economic growth, commercial real estate sitting at 40% leased, residential real estate coming off a multi-year tear, treasury rates at all time highs, a bloated fed balance sheet with a plan to shed some assets.

Not including anything geopolitical/political, anything else y’all would include?


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[Incredulity 11675]

4 minutes ago, BLKNSTY said:

We have: an incredibly strong dollar

What are you basing this on?

Dollar to Euro is in a similar range since 2015.  Same with Dollar to AUD, Japanese Yen, SK Won.

It has strengthen significantly against South American Currencies in a similar time frame but not the rest of the world.  

[Trey3216 15347]

12 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I saw multiple posts in wulaw's mortgage thread where board members were re-financing with ARMs.  I shook my head wondering if those posters blocked out 2007 / 2008 from their memories.

I could see doing an ARM if the locked in rate was for 3+ years, which might give you an out to re-fi.  But I don’t see rates being where they were 3 years from now either.   Today’s rates are actually a healthy level.   

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19103]

27 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

What are you basing this on?

Dollar to Euro is in a similar range since 2015.  Same with Dollar to AUD, Japanese Yen, SK Won.

It has strengthen significantly against South American Currencies in a similar time frame but not the rest of the world.  

Yeah, no.  Dollar is currently at its strongest levels in a while against the Euro/Swiss Franc/GBP etc....

[BabaYaga 15301]

4 hours ago, Hefeweizen said:

There is no good faith discussion with people who have an agenda.  

Leave the CR out of this...

[BabaYaga 15301]

45 minutes ago, BLKNSTY said:

very low unemployment

Doves are driving the Fed, so this is their mandate.  When you factor in the labor participation rate, it's still skewed to some extent

[Fudge Nuggets 19206]

38 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

I could see doing an ARM if the locked in rate was for 3+ years, which might give you an out to re-fi.  But I don’t see rates being where they were 3 years from now either.   Today’s rates are actually a healthy level.   

With rates having been artificially suppressed for years, the odds that rates three years down the road are less than they were a couple of months ago are slim and none.

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

 

[BLKNSTY 289]

What are you basing this on?
Dollar to Euro is in a similar range since 2015.  Same with Dollar to AUD, Japanese Yen, SK Won.
It has strengthen significantly against South American Currencies in a similar time frame but not the rest of the world.  

Collective basket of foreign currencies on market watch. We’re up 16% YOY and the chart looks like we’re right at 20 year highs. With us increasing rates while the rest of the world not, should be a steady grind up for the for the foreseeable future unless things drastically change. And even if things do drastically change, chances are those events would further strengthen the dollar.


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[BLKNSTY 289]

Doves are driving the Fed, so this is their mandate.  When you factor in the labor participation rate, it's still skewed to some extent

Understandable and I do think the “underemployed” is an issue but I don’t know if I’m comfortable with how the gig economy folks are considered in these numbers. But just from my viewpoint, we’re hiring like crazy and I see help wanted signs everywhere.


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[BabaYaga 15301]

1 minute ago, BLKNSTY said:

Understandable and I do think the “underemployed” is an issue but I don’t know if I’m comfortable with how the gig economy folks are considered in these numbers. But just from my viewpoint, we’re hiring like crazy and I see help wanted signs everywhere.


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Same.  I'm back to testing the waters and when word went out, I'm getting flooded with friends and prior co-workers with organizations desperate to hire.  

[jimmyjazz 45976]

11 minutes ago, BLKNSTY said:

Collective basket of foreign currencies on market watch. We’re up 16% YOY and the chart looks like we’re right at 20 year highs.

Yup.  This is an ETF, and I'm not familiar with their fees (headwinds), etc., but it tends to back up your viewpoint:

[TxTower 652]

treasury rates at all time highs

Um what? How old are you?


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[Immaculate Vibes 114]

A couple of interesting paradoxes in the economy. Low unemployment, but record number of people quitting their jobs. I guess that’s people quitting and looking for raises elsewhere?

Also dollar strengthening but UST demand slowing, rates rising.  

[Neonmoon 38129]

Yields are not at all time highs

[BLKNSTY 289]

yeah my bad, I thought I was looking at a 20 year chart but it was just 10. So yields are at about a 12 year high with some room to run.


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[TxTower 652]

yeah my bad, I thought I was looking at a 20 year chart but it was just 10. So yields are at about a 12 year high with some room to run.


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Yeah just a little room with this dovish Fed.
I guess my chart goes back further than yours.

[tbone_ 14128]

My parents 16% mortage in 1984 says hi

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

10 hours ago, tbone_ said:

My parents 16% mortage in 1984 says hi

Their $70k house does too 

Edited May 7, 2022 by DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt

[tbone_ 14128]

Their $70k has does too 

Which is where we’re all headed back to if that chart reverses

[fattyflattie 4639]

23 hours ago, tbone_ said:

Which is where we’re all headed back to if that chart reverses

Impossible. A family of four cannot physically live in 1800ft^2 any longer.  For four, your looking 3750-4000 min. 

[Hefeweizen 5328]

1 hour ago, fattyflattie said:

Impossible. A family of four cannot physically live in 1800ft^2 any longer.  For four, your looking 3750-4000 min. 

We’re doing 1100 with four and a dog.  We’ve done it before in air bnb and it was great.  We’re in 3000 now and don’t use over 1200 of it.

 

 But I could live in a tent if I have a comfy bed.

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

On 5/6/2022 at 8:38 AM, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

you're absolutely right, but not with the clowns i called out. 

Since you "called me out", allow me to retort.

 

I'm not a "Fiscal Conservative". I'm a fuck sending money to a Government that pisses away our resources to fatten their friends (and their own) wallets. We don't need to print more money, raise taxes, etc. for some pet fucking project to determine how many times a snail will cross the road and how this impacts the (current thing) community.

If that makes me "fiscally conservative", then so be it. We knew this reckoning was coming. QE was a nightmare allowed to continue because people in power were getting rich as a result. 

 

[Parliament 14260]

22 hours ago, Hefeweizen said:

We’re doing 1100 with four and a dog.  We’ve done it before in air bnb and it was great.  We’re in 3000 now and don’t use over 1200 of it.

 

 But I could live in a tent if I have a comfy bed.

This is how you humble brag.

[Trey3216 15347]

39 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Since you "called me out", allow me to retort.

 

I'm not a "Fiscal Conservative". I'm a fuck sending money to a Government that pisses away our resources to fatten their friends (and their own) wallets. We don't need to print more money, raise taxes, etc. for some pet fucking project to determine how many times a snail will cross the road and how this impacts the (current thing) community.

If that makes me "fiscally conservative", then so be it. We knew this reckoning was coming. QE was a nightmare allowed to continue because people in power were getting rich as a result. 

 

And their friends that keep them in power were getting even richer.  

[Wulaw Horn 19098]

23 hours ago, Hefeweizen said:

We’re doing 1100 with four and a dog.  We’ve done it before in air bnb and it was great.  We’re in 3000 now and don’t use over 1200 of it.

 

 But I could live in a tent if I have a comfy bed.

I can tell you this, from experience, you can definitely fuck in a tent. 

[Royalfan5 2354]

15 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I can tell you this, from experience, you can definitely fuck in a tent. 

Fucking outside of a tent ain't that difficult either. 

[Wulaw Horn 19098]

12 minutes ago, Royalfan5 said:

Fucking outside of a tent ain't that difficult either. 

This is true, but the wife might not be as up for it. We took the RV out this weekend down to the beach.  She said no to shaking the RV and then no to outside. If I'd have had the damn tent I'd have gotten laid.  DIdn't bring it b/c it was just an overnight. I'm an idiot.  You might have a more adventurous SO than me.  She's fine with car or tent or our own yard, but draws the line at outside with the whole world to potentially see. 

 

And to get this thread back to inflation- if it keeps going any higher I think I'm living in that tent permanently.  

Edited May 9, 2022 by Wulaw Horn

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

And to get this thread back to inflation- if it keeps going any higher I think I'm living in that tent permanently.

[gmr548 16580]

Impossible. A family of four cannot physically live in 1800ft^2 any longer.  For four, your looking 3750-4000 min.