2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

18 minutes ago, Humble Beast said:

That’s the paradox. We’re (hopefully) realizing we need more oil and gas investment right as interest rates are rising worldwide. Makes it tougher to increase supply which would bring prices down over time. 

We fucked around.

We are finding out.

[washparkhorn 9,939]

11% inflation in Germany. 

[washparkhorn 9,939]

Key Fed data - PCE numbers up - supporting further tightening (rate hikes) by the Fed in an effort to destroy demand. Services inflation, rather than goods, is the primary driver (but goods inflation continues).

https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/personal-income-and-outlays-september-2022

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

42 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

11% inflation in Germany.

Let's put all our energy eggs in this Russian basket and see how that works out...

[Humble Beast 258]

9 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Let's put all our energy eggs in this Russian basket and see how that works out...

Let’s put all our energy eggs in this Chinese basket and see how that works out…

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

12 minutes ago, Humble Beast said:

Let’s put all our energy eggs in this Chinese basket and see how that works out…

[Hefeweizen 5,324]

Let’s put all our eggs on the ground and jump around!

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

6 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

Let’s put all our eggs on the ground and jump around!

That's how chickens grow.

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4,976]

I prefer my eggs over medium, with some Cajun spice sprinkled on them. Or maybe Fiesta brand fajita seasoning, depending on the mood I am in.

[Not a cat 5,658]

11 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

11% inflation in Germany. 

Germans and high inflation - what could possibly go wrong?

[Armybrat 40,850]

2 hours ago, Not a cat said:

Germans and high inflation - what could possibly go wrong?

Watch out for the assholes in the beer halls.

[jimmyjazz 45,960]

15 hours ago, Armybrat said:

Watch out for the assholes in the beer halls.

So, all of them?  (Except the beer wenches?)

[Armybrat 40,850]

37 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

So, all of them?  (Except the beer wenches?)

Just watch the wenches…

 

[Humble Beast 258]

 

[washparkhorn 9,939]

The Fed wants to fight inflation by almost doubling unemployment from 3.5 to 6%. Why? Because that is the primary tool available to it.  They have no power to combat one of the primary drivers of inflation:

Political pressure will ramp up from the Dems and the Populist Repubs as a result of the yaw demonstrated above. Temporarily, that pressure indicates a weakening dollar and stronger S&P when pricing in the peak Fed Rates on the anticipation the Fed will blink. The Fed is caught in a trap of its own making.  
 

tldr: pain and no solution for one of the core drivers of inflation.

As the economic uncoupling of the West from China continues, supply chains must shorten and become more resilient. Localization and regionalization will redefine the economies of the West. Great opportunities will emerge as old solutions wither. 

No CR. We are all in this together. 

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

3 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

The Fed is caught in a trap of its own making.

Truth. "Coming out of Covid" should have been a plan 2 years ago. We should have planned for it, but we suck at planning past the next quarter/month. We fucked around and we are about to find out.

[Humble Beast 258]

BIS paper on dollar milkshake/wrecking ball  

A lot we have talked about here, but a couple interesting things.

 

Strong dollar hurts global trade generally.

 

”Second, an appreciation of the dollar tends to go hand in hand with weaker global trade (Graph 3, right-hand panel). This is linked to the widespread use of the dollar for trade invoicing and financing. When the dollar appreciates, export prices, which are sticky in the short term, do not change much, while import prices in local currency increase, depressing import demand.4 In addition, a stronger dollar tightens trade credit conditions as trade credit is denominated mainly in US dollars. This hinders both imports and exports and puts pressure on global value chains.5 Consistent with such outcomes, the World Trade Organization forecasts a significant slowdown in world trade growth in 2023.“

Also another call from a foreign entity for the Fed to chill. 
 

“Finally, there is the question of whether the sharp appreciation of the dollar makes the case for greater global coordination of monetary policy. The concern could be that central banks may otherwise overtighten monetary policy from a global standpoint as they try to limit exchange rate depreciations.12 While most central banks have increased policy rates rapidly in recent months and have communicated their intention to hike rates further, real interest rates have declined over the past year or so and remain negative in most regions (Graph 5, right-hand panel). Furthermore, inflation remains stubbornly elevated. These observations caution against the notion that monetary policy is overreacting to the global surge in inflation.”

Good luck with that. 

[Captainant 27,676]

48 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Truth. "Coming out of Covid" should have been a plan 2 years ago. We should have planned for it, but we suck at planning past the next quarter/month. We fucked around and we are about to find out.

/noCR there were several legislative attempts to plan longer, but they never made it past the senate for some reason ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

7 minutes ago, Humble Beast said:

makes the case for greater global coordination of monetary policy.

Fuck. That. Noise. 

We don't want to be tied to the whims of China/India/Brazil/EU. 

Manifest destiny bitches!!!!

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

3 minutes ago, Captainant said:

/noCR there were several legislative attempts to plan longer, but they never made it past the senate for some reason ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I'm skeptical of any "plan" that comes out of Congress that isn't filled with more pork than a Fayetteville Saturday.

[Captainant 27,676]

1 minute ago, Cheeseweasel said:

I'm skeptical of any "plan" that comes out of Congress that isn't filled with more pork than a Fayetteville Saturday.

and that's fair

[washparkhorn 9,939]

ISM shows growth and stabilizing prices paid. Stable prices equals inflation slowing.

Jolts numbers scaring markets as employment remains strong (Fed wants higher unemployment to stop wage price spiral). The market has been pricing in a pivot (again).

Inversion in the 10/3 (key Fed measure) looming, which should signal the Fed to back off intensity of hikes. Small business missing rent payments and consumers relying more on credit cards with high interest rates are evidence of the Fed rate hikes working to destroy demand. 

Bad news is good news remains in play when it comes to the Fed. Perverse to say the least but reality in this Fed driven economy. 

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

1 hour ago, washparkhorn said:

Stable prices equals inflation slowing.

So no need for another rate hike, right FED?

 

Uh...right FED???

[Incredulity 11,675]

JPowell like

[bernorange 8,362]

The Fed is thinking about what is best in life:

To crush inflation, see it shrivel amidst a recession, and hear the lamentation of the women.

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

FED: Prima Nocta is back on the menu, boys.

[Gravy Train 974]

13 hours ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Truth. "Coming out of Covid" should have been a plan 2 years ago. We should have planned for it, but we suck at planning past the next quarter/month. We fucked around and we are about to find out.

There was a plan, unfortunately, this is what it looked like:

 

[Humble Beast 258]

I considered not sharing these because he’s such a creep. A couple of these graphs were good though and despite his Epstein connection he’s still pretty plugged in and his viewpoint could be one that is considered above the noise. 
 

 

[Captainant 27,676]

2 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

 

So just to be clear: you're implying that social security benefits, not record corporate profit margins, is a leading driver of inflation? Or that this benefits increase of 8.7% to adjust for inflation is bad for Americans?

Like, you do know shit had gotten more expensive right? Lol

[PilotsError 2,287]

JFC, you think this is on the corporations and not the government printing press??  Gd.  

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

9 hours ago, Gravy Train said:

There was a plan, unfortunately, this is what it looked like:

BRRRRRRRTTTTTTTT was the plan all along.

[52-80 19,159]

32 minutes ago, PilotsError said:

JFC, you think this is on the corporations and not the government printing press??  Gd.  

moreover, regardless of the upstream cause of inflation, the fact that the social security benefits are increased to offset inflation was codified in law in the 1970s!!!! (under R presidency, IIRC)

something that happens automatically for 5 decades is somethng you dont usddenly take "leadership" credit for.  lmao.

 

https://www.ssa.gov/news/cola/

Quote

History of Automatic Cost-Of-Living Adjustments (COLA)

Congress enacted the COLA provision as part of the 1972 Social Security Amendments, and automatic annual COLAs began in 1975. Before that, benefits were increased only when Congress enacted special legislation.

 

[52-80 19,159]

through my leadership, i provided my child his dinner yesterday.  not that im already supposed to do that as a parent anyway.

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

3 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

through my leadership, i provided my child his dinner yesterday.  not that im already supposed to do that as a parent anyway.

Through my leadership, I am responding to your post with a positive message. Have a great day, 52-80. 

[52-80 19,159]

8 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Through my leadership, I am responding to your post with a positive message. Have a great day, 52-80. 

Thank you sir. Yesterday, he was the tallest, heaviest, and oldest hes been in his life, all credits to me. 

[Hefeweizen 5,324]

All shitposting aside (who am I kidding) I think the pressure is easing finally.

 

 I am seeing contractors shrink their margins and getting much more competitive in pricing.  Supply chain still fucked but all of a sudden the tightness in a lot of the market has been relaxed.   I have stopped hiring period until next year, probably summer at the earliest.

 

I think we’ll get this hike and then it will begin to ease.  But rates are still going to go up until first quarter of next year.

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

10 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

I have stopped hiring period until next year, probably summer at the earliest.

Recession is a self-fulfilling prophecy. 

[Armybrat 40,850]

1 hour ago, 52-80 said:

 

Oh goody, we’re catching up to 2014.

[Captainant 27,676]

57 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

through my leadership, i provided my child his dinner yesterday.  not that im already supposed to do that as a parent anyway.

Lol I mean I'm not sure how to respond to this political grievancd without getting accused of CR'ing.

Oh no! A press release highlighting that this action, while routine, is the largest of it's kind so far! Someone stop this abuse of the press!!!

Did you actually think of anything that linked your post to inflation, or did you just want to post in your hugbox?

1 hour ago, PilotsError said:

JFC, you think this is on the corporations and not the government printing press??  Gd.  

BRRRRRT certainly inflated the capital base, but inflation is outrunning monetary supply growth by a factor of 2-3x, and correlates more strongly with increases in corporate profits.

And dangit wouldn't ya know it, since the 2017 TCAJ there's even fewer drains to remove capital from the economy via corporate taxes. Which are of course at historic lows while profits are record high and wages are increasing slower than inflation for low income (read: hourly) workers. 

I'm just saying, y'all are pretty eager to pick ONE thing that's still pretty recent as the cause of a long term problem that's been fucking coming for years since we never made any meaningful changes after 2008, and rolled back what we did put in place

Edited November 2, 2022 by Captainant

[Wally Fairway 5,550]

WSJ article on CPI showing the details of components, and a clicky-boxy thing to get a more personalized inflation number (sorry if paywalled, and sorrier if already posted)

https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-tracker-cpi-data-prices-11657717467?mod=hp_listb_pos2

Quote

The Journal has put together a price tracker of common items that many Americans buy monthly to see the direction of prices that matter to you. This living page will automatically update with the most recent prices from the CPI as new numbers are released.

The CPI basket of 80,000 items is broken down into categories broad (such as food) and narrow (like bananas). Let’s take a closer look at fruits and vegetables, foods we’re all supposed to be eating daily.

 

 

[Gravy Train 974]

1 hour ago, Armybrat said:

Oh goody, we’re catching up to 2014.

Not fast enough, but we'll be paying for it.

SSI wage cap jumps up to $162K (from $147K).  They're also taking an additional 0.9 percent in Medicare taxes on earnings that exceed:

$250,000 for married taxpayers who file jointly
$125,000 for married taxpayers who file separately
$200,000 for single and all other taxpayers

OTOH, 401k limit jumps to $22,500 and IRA up to $6,500, so any raises you're planning on are probably spoken for. 

Is taxation a component of "Wage-Price Spiral?"

[Armybrat 40,850]

Last SS COLA adjustment we netted together 17 Cents a month after the Medicare increases.

🎉

[txduck87 985]

Last SS COLA adjustment we netted together 17 Cents a month after the Medicare increases.

That’s the difference between the medium and large blizzard at DQ! Winning?

[Incredulity 11,675]

2 minutes ago, txduck87 said:

That’s the difference between the medium and large blizzard at DQ! Winning?

ummm, no.

Sensitive issue.  My kids are fiends for blizzards(who's aren't).  It's stunning what 3 mini Blizzards cost.

[52-80 19,159]

47 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

Last SS COLA adjustment we netted together 17 Cents a month after the Medicare increases.

🎉

dont go spend it all at one place!!!

[52-80 19,159]

the white house inflation tweet got sent to Guantamo....

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

Just now, 52-80 said:

the white house inflation tweet got sent to Guantamo....

That means .75 from the Fed, doesn't it?

[Armybrat 40,850]

12 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

dont go spend it all at one place!!!

We’ve been saving it to get an M&M Mini-Blizzard. Only five more months to go (barring a price increase over the current $2.89)!

[washparkhorn 9,939]

“Cumulative effects” = things may break warning

Dollar drops; equities rise

The dreaded Lag

[CowboyFred 1,151]

5 hours ago, Captainant said:

Lol I mean I'm not sure how to respond to this political grievancd without getting accused of CR'ing.

Oh no! A press release highlighting that this action, while routine, is the largest of it's kind so far! Someone stop this abuse of the press!!!

Did you actually think of anything that linked your post to inflation, or did you just want to post in your hugbox?

BRRRRRT certainly inflated the capital base, but inflation is outrunning monetary supply growth by a factor of 2-3x, and correlates more strongly with increases in corporate profits.

And dangit wouldn't ya know it, since the 2017 TCAJ there's even fewer drains to remove capital from the economy via corporate taxes. Which are of course at historic lows while profits are record high and wages are increasing slower than inflation for low income (read: hourly) workers. 

I'm just saying, y'all are pretty eager to pick ONE thing that's still pretty recent as the cause of a long term problem that's been fucking coming for years since we never made any meaningful changes after 2008, and rolled back what we did put in place

1234

CR or not, pinning our economic crisis solely on this administration is fucking bullshit.  Sorry the last administration fucked us over and that we had a world wide shutdown.  Y’all chucklefucks were celebrating the 2017 tax cuts even though report after report indicated it would screw us years down the line.