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2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?

Reagan1k

By Reagan1k
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The only thing more predictable than the GOP running up huge deficits on tax cuts and military spending, is each one suddenly becoming horrified by deficit spending 5 mins after a Democrat is sworn in

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HamsterHookah

HamsterHookah 112

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10 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

250K since "the start of 2022" has a lot of wiggle room.  I'm also not sure that $130K makes sense as average salary -- if amazon is laying off warehouse employees, is that a "tech layoff"?

Not disputing, just asking questions.  For a friend.

Understand where you are coming from and good questions: I'll try to find some more hard data.

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HamsterHookah

HamsterHookah 112

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21 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

250K since "the start of 2022" has a lot of wiggle room.  I'm also not sure that $130K makes sense as average salary -- if amazon is laying off warehouse employees, is that a "tech layoff"?

Not disputing, just asking questions.  For a friend.

Layoffs.fyi seems to be a good source:

2023: The Tech Layoffs Continue

2022 became known as the year in which dozens of tech companies began to lay off thousands of employees even as many businesses have found it hard to attract qualified IT personnel. And 2023 seems to be following the same pattern, with a variety of tech companies cutting their workforces.

So far in 2023, 200 tech companies have laid off a total of 86,822 workers, according to layoffs-tracking website Layoffs.fyi.

Edited by HamsterHookah
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HamsterHookah

HamsterHookah 112

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@jimmyjazzHere is a tool to play around with compensation if curious: https://www.comprehensive.io/explorer/titles/location=all&sortDir=asc

@gurt It appears Recruiters (Technical & Sales Recruiters) were making good money at Big Tech?https://www.comprehensive.io/explorer/titles/title=Sales+Recruiter&title=Senior+Technical+Recruiter&title=Technical+Recruiter&location=all&sortDir=asc

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gurt

gurt 736

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Yeah was about to post layoffs.fyi is a pretty good source for tech layoffs.

Tech recruiters were definitely making bank, even though it is a job that almost anybody could do.  It is such a boom time job, 2020-2022 everybody was hiring so much that every person "breaking into tech" was either in recruiting or sales, with the former making over 6 figures to DM people on LinkedIn.  

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45567

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41 minutes ago, gurt said:

Yeah was about to post layoffs.fyi is a pretty good source for tech layoffs.

Tech recruiters were definitely making bank, even though it is a job that almost anybody could do.  It is such a boom time job, 2020-2022 everybody was hiring so much that every person "breaking into tech" was either in recruiting or sales, with the former making over 6 figures to DM people on LinkedIn.  

Good lord, it took me (grumble grumble) X years to hit that pay as principal engineer and reluctant department manager.

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HamsterHookah

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1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

Good lord, it took me (grumble grumble) X years to hit that pay as principal engineer and reluctant department manager.

There is definitely a lot of "regressing to the mean" now that the heady, free-cash and cheap VC money days are over (to come back one day or gone forever?) and it's healthy to recalibrate some of the $200k jobs that are really $100k (or whatever) jobs outside of a tight labor market in tech, but the point is that it's still not great that high paying jobs in high COL areas are being gutted and replaced by low paying jobs, no matter the nominal gains.

Maybe the volume of jobs gained, no matter the quality, will outweigh the jobs in tech lost as it pertains to helping the economy and our consumption-based GDP model and if so that is a good thing. I haven't seen data to suggest that.

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HamsterHookah

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22 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I'm understandably grumpy about tech compensation after a company for which I was literally the first engineer subsequently IPO'ed and eventually slogged our way through big money headwinds (they exist) to turn an annual profit if it hadn't been for . . . c-suite bonuses.

Understandable! 

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HamsterHookah

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4 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Replace highly paid tech jobs with a firehouse of borderline poverty wage jobs, resulting in a decrease in unemployment AND decreased wage growth, huzzah! Bonuses to all the execs and buybacks for the shareholders with all the money saved!

Also, not sure how accurate this is, but I've heard that with respect to the January jobs report that was celebrated, all the big tech layoffs that came with severances (which range from basic 60 days to very generous 200+ days) actually still reflect payroll data.

Maybe you or someone else who knows it better can verify, but I hear to get the real number you have to subtract the tens of thousands of jobs from that report number for a more realistic estimate and that Q2/Q3 will reflect market conditions more accurately, with respect to Tech.

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Captainant

Captainant 27479

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47 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Recruiters for tech companies, not "highly paid tech jobs". 

Eh recruiters and HR are definitely a big chunk, but quite a few engineering and development teams for products have been laid off as well. Point remains, highly paid roles are being laid off and replaced by many more lower paid jobs. It's literally the only way would be seeing wage growth slowing while unemployment is at all time lows. 

It's great for the stock market, but not great for the non-corporation people living IN the economy 

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15325

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21 hours ago, Captainant said:

Replace highly paid tech jobs with a firehouse of borderline poverty wage jobs, resulting in a decrease in unemployment AND decreased wage growth, huzzah! Bonuses to all the execs and buybacks for the shareholders with all the money saved!

Workforce productivity is not all that pretty right now either 

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HamsterHookah

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20 hours ago, Captainant said:

Eh recruiters and HR are definitely a big chunk, but quite a few engineering and development teams for products have been laid off as well. Point remains, highly paid roles are being laid off and replaced by many more lower paid jobs. It's literally the only way would be seeing wage growth slowing while unemployment is at all time lows. 

It's great for the stock market, but not great for the non-corporation people living IN the economy 

Dude. 

We are in complete and total agreement here. First time ever.

Balloons drop. Music goes off.

We have common ground!!

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Royalfan5

Royalfan5 2348

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14 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Market price for US eggs has been tanking over the past 5 weeks, believe it or not.

Eggs.jpg.52ebc48c100f6772d9d39fd790220bc2.jpg

Curious how long  until this actually translates to lower prices on store shelves. I'll start holding my breath.

It's like demand slows down after Christmas baking season. 

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On 2/6/2023 at 4:49 PM, Captainant said:

Eh recruiters and HR are definitely a big chunk, but quite a few engineering and development teams for products have been laid off as well. Point remains, highly paid roles are being laid off and replaced by many more lower paid jobs. It's literally the only way would be seeing wage growth slowing while unemployment is at all time lows. 

It's great for the stock market, but not great for the non-corporation people living IN the economy 

If engineers can be replaced by "low earners," I'd posit that the engineers were underemployed to begin with. 

Son is in the industry and is actively being recruited with offers of 2.5 to 3X over his current pay, first year in the role.  None of their teams are downsizing, in fact key players are still telling employers to fuck off with the 5 days in the office routine after they figured out it was unnecessary.  Employers are definitely trying to pull back/ streamline, but even in very low unemployment times on paper at least, the employees are calling the general shots. People doing the actual 'tech' work are not being let go.  It's still very much a seller's market.

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Royalfan5

Royalfan5 2348

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8 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Eggs didn’t double in price past years and we had Christmas baking season then as well.

Seasonal moves get exaggerated when there are problems like bird flu. Also everyone is going to be real pissy in 6-12 months when beef goes through the roof

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Royalfan5

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1 hour ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Enjoy your 4th of July Cricket Burgers.

Guess you should have been willing to pay up earlier to ensure supply. The tightness in cattle is coming because of drought, and poor calf prices the last couple of years have shrunk the herd. On the bright side there is a shit load of cheap chicken in the pipeline, and hog numbers could bounce quickly too. 

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Incredulity

Incredulity 11563

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27 minutes ago, Royalfan5 said:

Guess you should have been willing to pay up earlier to ensure supply. The tightness in cattle is coming because of drought, and poor calf prices the last couple of years have shrunk the herd. On the bright side there is a shit load of cheap chicken in the pipeline, and hog numbers could bounce quickly too. 

Same thing was predicted in cotton this year too and that turned into **Price is Right Horn**.   

I am not really trying to argue, but it will be interesting to see what comes of the pending doom prediction for beef prices.  As a consumer I can tell you the "beef prices" problems from Tysons earnings report on Monday sure as hell hasn't made it to retail.

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