2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?

[Incredulity 11,675]

1 minute ago, Parliament said:

Too the moon!

[Mullet Free 40]

6 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Oh yeah, it's a rocket ship alright, almost back to half its peak:

Just for reference, you are here in the cycle. 
 

 

 

[jimmyjazz 45,963]

"Cycle".  Lulz.

[Brisketexan 105,151]

7 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

"Cycle".  Lulz.

See similar graphs for tulip bulbs, beanie babies, certain Franklin mint collectibles, various metals at various times, etc. etc. blah blah blah.

See, you're at 1990 on the Beanie Baby price bounce -- you'd be a FOOL not to jump in now!

 

[Mullet Free 40]

57 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

"Cycle".  Lulz.

It goes in 4 year cycles. 
 

 

its hard to see because it’s gotten so big but there was a bull run in 2013. So 2013, 2017, 2021…

 

 

45 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

See similar graphs for tulip bulbs, beanie babies, certain Franklin mint collectibles, various metals at various times, etc. etc. blah blah blah.

See, you're at 1990 on the Beanie Baby price bounce -- you'd be a FOOL not to jump in now!

 

None of those charts are similar. 

[Hefeweizen 5,324]

Jeez can we keep BTC and fiat money out of this thread at least?  There is a tiny segment of the population interested in crypto but just like gold and silver it should stay in its niche.

 

I have a bad feeling that inflating our way out of debt isn’t going the way policy makers thought it would.  Maybe we’re caught in a little conundrum here.

[Mullet Free 40]

Ackman begging the Fed to pause. This guy loves the long tweets/blog size posts. 
 

 

 

[Parliament 14,260]

#fuckthat

[Mullet Free 40]

pretty good thread here. Interesting comparison to 1998. Coincidentally the rate cut he’s discussing occurred right as Long Term Capital Management was blowing up. The first big modern Wall St bailout. Peanuts by today’s terms. $3.65B

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

I love that everyone is positioning themselves based on how it helps them, their narrative, their media message, etc. instead of what is good for the nation. 

[Catpfish 618]

Not to sound CR, but isn't that pretty much standard operating procedure for both sides of the political aisle today? 

[Hefeweizen 5,324]

56 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

I love that everyone is positioning themselves based on how it helps them, their narrative, their media message, etc. instead of what is good for the nation. 

Everyone always talks their book.  It’s just become way more obvious.

[Storm the Field 5,295]

Canada CPI for February came in light, despite a pause in rate hikes:

MOM +0.4% vs 0.5% estimate

YOY dropped from 5.9% to 5.2% vs. estimated 5.4%.

[Trey3216 15,346]

1 hour ago, Mullet Free said:

pretty good thread here. Interesting comparison to 1998. Coincidentally the rate cut he’s discussing occurred right as Long Term Capital Management was blowing up. The first big modern Wall St bailout. Peanuts by today’s terms. $3.65B

Coincidentally, I alluded to that in another thread regarding how long Credit Suisse has been having problems.  They've been under fire during every credit event since LTCM.  This does seem a lot more like that ordeal than '08 to be honest.  I guess we'll see.  

[B00M 6,416]

1 hour ago, Cheeseweasel said:

I love that everyone is positioning themselves based on how it helps them, their narrative, their media message, etc. instead of what is good for the nation. 

When you saying “positioning” are you referring to messaging or investments? In either case, what positioning do you see as good for the nation? If that position doesn’t align with basic human instincts (greed, fear), what are the odds of alignment? Zero?

[Parliament 14,260]

1 hour ago, Cheeseweasel said:

I love that everyone is positioning themselves based on how it helps them, their narrative, their media message, etc. instead of what is good for the nation. 

Great point.  You go first.

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

6 minutes ago, B00M said:

In either case, what positioning do you see as good for the nation?

Beanie baby prices seem solid.

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

Just now, Parliament said:

Great point.  You go first.

I subscribe to the Reverse Wally Fairway theory of economics.

[Storm the Field 5,295]

22 hours ago, Mullet Free said:

Just for reference, you are here in the cycle. 
 

 

 

[Incredulity 11,675]

bitcoin collapses

[Mullet Free 40]

First Fed decision in a while that hasn’t been heavily telegraphed in a while. The expectation before shit hit the fan was 25-50 bps hike. I think that 25 bps is still most likely with dovish talk about pausing going forward and watching markets closely. Being ready to reverse course quickly if needed etc. 

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

What will happen: 25 basis points.

 

What I want to happen: 50 basis point drop. BRRRRTTT THIS MOTHERFUCKER!!!!

[Trey3216 15,346]

1 hour ago, Cheeseweasel said:

What will happen: 25 basis points.

 

What I want to happen: 50 basis point drop. BRRRRTTT THIS MOTHERFUCKER!!!!

I think a pause would be ideal.  50bp drop would show that the FED is truly scared of systemic risk, and while BRRRRRRRRRTTTTTTTTTT, the market would likely sell off.  A raise and the market sells off.  A pause and we go sideways for another few months as things figure themselves out. 

[bernorange 8,362]

I predict 25bp and future guidance that another 25 bp hike next go 'round is likely pending data

[washparkhorn 9,939]

Moral Hazard part 3,237. When the Harvard boys are calling it a “financial crisis” — the bailouts are officially sanctioned. 

 

[Mullet Free 40]

4 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

Moral Hazard part 3,237. When the Harvard boys are calling it a “financial crisis” — the bailouts are officially sanctioned. 

 

When given a choice, they will **Always** print. 

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

37 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

Moral Hazard part 3,237. When the Harvard boys are calling it a “financial crisis” — the bailouts are officially sanctioned. 

 

No one expects a 50 BPS drop. Maybe that's why I didn't get into Harvard. 

 

That and the money.

The shitty predictions, the money, and the low GPA. 

AMONGST the reasons I didn't get into Harvard are...

 

I'll come in again.

[LCHorn 2,620]

25 bps and MBS went from +18 to +62 in four minutes.  

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

The fix is in. Hide you kids. Hide you wives.

[Hefeweizen 5,324]

27 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

The fix is in. Hide you kids. Hide you wives.

We’re fucking doing this crash now, aren’t we?

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

5 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

We’re fucking doing this crash now, aren’t we?

Leroy Motherfucking Jenkins.

[Mullet Free 40]

 

looks like for now Powell has decided to protect the currency over the banks. Remains to be seen how much more of a backstop Fed will have to provide to those banks. 

[Mullet Free 40]

Balance sheet expansion continues. Another $90B this week. 
 

 

Edited March 23, 2023 by Mullet Free

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

BRRRRRRRRTTTTTTTTT is back on the menu, boys.

[B00M 6,416]

Isn’t that uptick in holdings the treasury bills (or whatever) the fed has given these struggling banks full value for so they have liquidity and the fed can hold them to maturity to avoid the unrealized losses? It ends up being a wash, right? Did I miss the BRRRRT?

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

4 minutes ago, B00M said:

Isn’t that uptick in holdings the treasury bills (or whatever) the fed has given these struggling banks full value for so they have liquidity and the fed can hold them to maturity to avoid the unrealized losses? It ends up being a wash, right? Did I miss the BRRRRT?

Yeah, that exactly what it is. 

[B00M 6,416]

So fuck the fed but this just seems like the ethical thing to do given how quickly they raised interest rates. 

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

4 minutes ago, B00M said:

So fuck the fed but this just seems like the ethical thing to do given how quickly they raised interest rates. 

I used to be a fuck The Fed guy, but at this point, any other alternatives to The Fed are much worse. 

(insert Giant Douche / Turd Sandwich gif here)

[washparkhorn 9,939]

AI is the ultimate deflationary headwind.

https://economics.mit.edu/sites/default/files/inline-files/Noy_Zhang_1.pdf
 

We examine the productivity effects of a generative artificial intelligence technology—the assistive chatbot ChatGPT—in the context of mid-level professional writing tasks. In a preregistered online experiment, we assign occupation-specific, incentivized writing tasks to 444 college-educated professionals, and randomly expose half of them to ChatGPT.
 

Our results show that ChatGPT substantially raises average productivity: time taken decreases by 0.8 SDs and output quality rises by 0.4 SDs. Inequality between workers decreases, as ChatGPT compresses the productivity distribution by benefiting low-ability workers more. ChatGPT mostly substitutes for worker effort rather than complementing worker skills, and restructures tasks towards idea-generation and editing and away from rough-drafting. 

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

More time to waste on Surly. Sweet!

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

16 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

The joke is going to be on them when I use AI to print my own money at home, and then who needs billable hours anyway?  Suck it, globalists.

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

[Bozo_Casanova 26,472]

3 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

ChatGPT mostly substitutes for worker effort rather than complementing worker skills, and restructures tasks towards idea-generation and editing and away from rough-drafting. 

Sorry rurals, I guess we didn't need you to learn to code after all. 

Edited March 24, 2023 by Bozo_Casanova

[Incredulity 11,675]

Its coming for the laptop people, bet on it.  

[Mullet Free 40]

More “inflation relief” on the way in UK

 

 

 

[Parliament 14,260]

So it's their choice of course, but I don't think that's gonna work very good.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,515]

12 hours ago, Mullet Free said:

More “inflation relief” on the way in UK

 

 

 

Very different world where the conservative govt brags about taxing energy companies even more.

also isn’t giving people money create more inflation not less?

[B00M 6,416]

39 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

also isn’t giving people money create more inflation not less?

That’s our concern dude

[Parliament 14,260]

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

 

also isn’t giving people money create more inflation not less?

You cracked the code!

[Hefeweizen 5,324]

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Very different world where the conservative govt brags about taxing energy companies even more.

also isn’t giving people money create more inflation not less?

The solution to inflation is to take their money away.

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Very different world where the conservative govt brags about taxing energy companies even more.

also isn’t giving people money create more inflation not less?

The solution to inflation is to take their money away.