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2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?

Reagan1k

By Reagan1k
in Business and Markets

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HonkeyVape

HonkeyVape 107

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

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Americans consumerism won't be crushed. Credit cards maxed to the extreme, over-leveraged to the hilt, and will be bleeding-out in a ditch in the streets but broadcasting on instagram live with an iPhone in new Nike Dunks.

Edited by HonkeyVape
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52-80
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Bateshorn
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The only thing more predictable than the GOP running up huge deficits on tax cuts and military spending, is each one suddenly becoming horrified by deficit spending 5 mins after a Democrat is sworn in

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Captainant

Captainant 27764

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, HonkeyVape said:

Americans consumerism won't be crushed. Credit cards maxed to the extreme, over-leveraged to the hilt, and will be bleeding-out in a ditch in the streets but broadcasting on instagram live with an iPhone in new Nike Dunks.

I mean, if the median wage was able to cover more than fundamental living expenses we'd probably see fewer maxed out credit cards. More than half the US population making under $65k/yr ain't gonna go very far when median RENT is $2k/mo. That's half the paycheck just on having a place to sleep - not even talking food or kids or transportation. 

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Live within your means...and if you want more, do more.

Offensive, i know.

I live in a nice 2 bedroom house, as an empty nester. $1700/ month house note.

Some of your math is fucked up.  keep clinging to those excuses though.

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Captainant

Captainant 27764

Posted
Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, slorch said:

Live within your means...and if you want more, do more.

Offensive, i know.

I live in a nice 2 bedroom house, as an empty nester. $1700/ month house note.

Some of your math is fucked up.  keep clinging to those excuses though.

Maybe you could learn me some of your Texas Tech math, because $65k/yr comes out to around $1200/wk before taxes. And median means literally the middle number of the set - not the average - so please explain how "my math is fucked up" to say that half(ish) of their pay is going to rent/housing when the national median is about $2000/mo

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11 hours ago, Captainant said:

Maybe you could learn me some of your Texas Tech math, because $65k/yr comes out to around $1200/wk before taxes. And median means literally the middle number of the set - not the average - so please explain how "my math is fucked up" to say that half(ish) of their pay is going to rent/housing when the national median is about $2000/mo

"Regardless of my below median income, I deserve to have a national median house."

loosely translated, of course.

 

You're always playing the "we deserve more" bullshit card and ignoring reality.

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Captainant

Captainant 27764

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, slorch said:

"Regardless of my below median income, I deserve to have a national median house."

loosely translated, of course.

 

You're always playing the "we deserve more" bullshit card and ignoring reality.

My point is that IF you are earning the national median income, you probably cannot afford the national median house. That is a problem. Housing costs - and pretty much every cost - are way out out of sync. It's inflation, stupid. But you and your merry band of supply-side trickle down economists are really slorching hard to intentionally misunderstand what I'm saying as "everyone deserves everything". 

I'm saying that empirically, wages have been suppressed for SO long while consumer costs and even moreso business profits have been rising meteorically- were gonna reach a fucking breaking point. 

I just think it's funny how violently y'all react to the idea of our current economic configuration being completely unsustainable 

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gmr548

gmr548 16614

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I wish the newer generations had an understanding or ability to shift gears into "austere mode", but poor people pooling together their money in an airbnb in Miami won't be stopped. We are going to get rate hikes until there is blood in the streets and then we will say, "but why did it have to come to this?"

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Incredulity

Incredulity 11683

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Captainant said:

I just think it's funny how violently y'all react to the idea of our current economic configuration being completely unsustainable

I think it’s funny how instinctively y’all turtle to the economy is rigged position when someone expresses the reality of economic mobility in America.

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52-80

52-80 19245

Posted
Posted
17 hours ago, slorch said:

Live within your means...and if you want more, do more.

Offensive, i know.

I live in a nice 2 bedroom house, as an empty nester. $1700/ month house note.

Some of your math is fucked up.  keep clinging to those excuses though.

Well, ditchdiggers need nice apartments too

XvhpyuYS9D_ZT-bGJ_xwvS-lBll-SMipYjMe1ckg

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19221

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

i think your reading comprehension should have been remedied during grade school

Your lack of compassion for those less fortunate than yourself should have been remedied by your parents before you were potty trained.

Which begs the question, are you an asshole because your parents hated you or do your parents hate you because you're an asshole?

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52-80

52-80 19245

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Your lack of compassion for those less fortunate than yourself should have been remedied by your parents before you were potty trained.

Which begs the question, are you an asshole because your parents hated you or do your parents hate you because you're an asshole?

my parents taught me work ethic and financial discipline, which set me up for a good life.

i volunteer to help the homeless, and give to charity in the developing world.  i just dont have compassion for or patience towards dumbfucks like you.

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Lack of compassion by the hippies and the commies on this board= expecting people to fucking work

 

yep: guilty 

 

next up: a lecture on poverty

 

y’all ignored Andy DuFresne: the solution lies within  

 

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HonkeyVape

HonkeyVape 107

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8 hours ago, gmr548 said:


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Not sure how this makes sense. Are you saying it’s not wrong to continue spending on fun/luxury/travel when housing/food/utility/transportation costs are pushing you to your limit?

Poor people feeling entitled to things that are outside of their budgets is a problem. So the conversation becomes a political one about what a citizen should be entitled to (e.g. free/low cost healthcare, low cost housing on the one end of the spectrum and iPhones and an the ability to go on vacations for their mental health, etc.)

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Js1

Js1 85570

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

"Entitled" is a really fucking ugly word.

There is no demographic more entitled than rich, white, upper middle class/rich men. No one below should have anything even remotely approaching what they have - secure housing, unlimited access to higher education, good employment opportunities, voting power, etc 

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troph

troph 24905

Posted
Posted
On 6/24/2023 at 4:18 PM, slorch said:

Lack of compassion by the hippies and the commies on this board= expecting people to fucking work

 

yep: guilty 

 

next up: a lecture on poverty

 

y’all ignored Andy DuFresne: the solution lies within  

 

Problems like poverty are complex and do not boil down to a solution set of one if it did a lot less poverty would exist in this world. 

On 6/24/2023 at 5:02 PM, Incredulity said:

They’re Leftists, but the point stands 

I actually think you have solid contributions to this thread. This isn’t one of them.

I’m as leftist as they come in some ways and l will out work every last mother fucker on this board.

I also think real compassion for other humans plight is the best thing we can do to heal the current abhorrent divide.

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6637

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Fresh data you freaks

https://www.realtor.com/research/may-2023-rent/
 

Highlights
-May 2023 marks the first year-over-year rent decline for 0-2 bedroom properties (-0.5% Y/Y) observed since trend data began in 2020. 

-The median asking rent in the 50 largest metros increased to $1,739, up by $3 from last month and down $38 from its July 2022 peak. 

-Rent for 2-bedrooms saw its first year-over-year decline in our data history, while smaller units saw rents increase. Rent by size: Studio: $1,463, up 2.0% ($28) year-over-year; 1-bed: $1,628, up 0.4% ($6) year-over-year; 2-bed: $1,923, down 0.5% (-$10) year-over-year.

-Rents in the Midwest are slowing, but continue to increase (4.5% Y/Y), while rents in the West (-3.0% Y/Y) and South markets (-0.7%) were lower than a year ago.

-With the release of the mid-year forecast, we expect that the median asking rents will experience a small annual decline at a rate of -0.9% in 2023.

 

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bernorange

bernorange 8363

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Quote

... orders for long-lasting U.S. factory goods were up 1.7% in May versus the expected decrease of 1%.

The monthly increase in durable goods orders was $4.9 billion and was largely driven by transportation equipment that was up for the third consecutive month, the U.S. Census Bureau said in the report.

The core durable goods section, which excludes the volatile transportation sector, was up 0.6% in May versus the expected drop of 0.1%. Excluding defense, new orders rose 3%. ...

https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-06-27/U-S-durable-goods-beat-expectations-in-May-gold-price-keeps-its-daily-gains.html

Signs that inflation isn't tamed - ammo for the Fed to justify raising rates more.

Quote

The U.S. will enter a downturn in the fourth quarter, followed by a "year of contraction and a European recession in 2024," according to HSBC Asset Management.

In its midyear outlook, the British banking giant's asset manager said recession warnings are "flashing red" for many economies, while fiscal and monetary policies are out of sync with stock and bond markets.

Joseph Little, global chief strategist at HSBC Asset Management, said while some parts of the economy have remained resilient thus far, the balance of risks "points to high recession risk now," with Europe lagging the U.S. but the macro trajectory generally "aligned."

"We are already in a mild profit recession, and corporate defaults have started to creep up too," Little said in the report seen by CNBC. ...

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/27/hsbc-global-economies-are-out-of-sync-2024-will-be-a-year-of-contraction.html

Quote

The Federal Reserve plans to keep hiking interest rates to stem inflation, which means an increase in corporate default rates is likely in coming months.

The corporate default rate rose in May, a sign that U.S. companies are grappling with higher interest rates that make it more expensive to refinance debt as well as an uncertain economic outlook.

There have been 41 defaults in the U.S. and one in Canada so far this year, the most in any region globally and more than double the same period in 2022, according to Moody's Investors Service.
...

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/24/high-interest-rates-economic-uncertainty-boost-corporate-defaults.html

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4627

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Posted
16 minutes ago, bernorange said:

https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-06-27/U-S-durable-goods-beat-expectations-in-May-gold-price-keeps-its-daily-gains.html

Signs that inflation isn't tamed - ammo for the Fed to justify raising rates more.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/27/hsbc-global-economies-are-out-of-sync-2024-will-be-a-year-of-contraction.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/24/high-interest-rates-economic-uncertainty-boost-corporate-defaults.html

“Profit recession”. LoL, can’t wait to see the layoff and pay freeze announcements citing that as the reason.

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troph

troph 24905

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

Fresh data you freaks

https://www.realtor.com/research/may-2023-rent/
 

Highlights
-May 2023 marks the first year-over-year rent decline for 0-2 bedroom properties (-0.5% Y/Y) observed since trend data began in 2020. 

-The median asking rent in the 50 largest metros increased to $1,739, up by $3 from last month and down $38 from its July 2022 peak. 

-Rent for 2-bedrooms saw its first year-over-year decline in our data history, while smaller units saw rents increase. Rent by size: Studio: $1,463, up 2.0% ($28) year-over-year; 1-bed: $1,628, up 0.4% ($6) year-over-year; 2-bed: $1,923, down 0.5% (-$10) year-over-year.

-Rents in the Midwest are slowing, but continue to increase (4.5% Y/Y), while rents in the West (-3.0% Y/Y) and South markets (-0.7%) were lower than a year ago.

-With the release of the mid-year forecast, we expect that the median asking rents will experience a small annual decline at a rate of -0.9% in 2023.

 

this is pretty big.

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bernorange

bernorange 8363

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Quote

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell talked tough on inflation Wednesday, saying at a forum that he expects multiple interest rate increases ahead and possibly at an aggressive pace.

"We believe there's more restriction coming," Powell said during a monetary policy session in Sintra, Portugal. "What's really driving it ... is a very strong labor market."
...
Most economists think the rate hikes ultimately will pull the U.S. into at least a shallow recession.
...

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/28/powell-say-more-restriction-is-coming-including-possibility-of-hikes-at-consecutive-meetings.html

Context:

Quote

The Fed took the market at least a little bit by surprise when it decided to project two more rate hikes earlier this month. It comes as readings on consumer prices continue to slow, and as the Fed itself admits that the impact from past increases have yet to be felt on the broader economy.

Tom Essaye, the founder and president of Sevens Report Research, says the answer to this puzzle lies in a framework put out by former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke, in a paper published in May.
...
... the Bernanke paper also warned that the longer a tight labor market is allowed to persist, the greater the chances it becomes a constant source of upward inflation. “If the current Fed is listening to Bernanke (and I imagine they are), then the Fed may be more focused on unemployment than anyone appreciates,” says Essaye.

That’s why there is 50 more basis points of hiking in store, probably regardless if CPI declines further. Essaye says the focus will be on the labor market, and markets have two fears — either no change, which will mean the Fed will have to get even more hawkish, or a really sudden deterioration, in which case there will be evidence it’s gone too far.
...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-a-recent-paper-from-bernanke-explains-the-feds-current-fears-even-as-cpi-slows-b10fa0e6

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bernorange

bernorange 8363

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The initial weekly jobless claims decreased by 26,000 to 239,000 in the week to Saturday, surprising the markets with a bigger-than-expected drop.

Economists’ consensus calls projected the initial claims to come in at 266,000. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 to 265,000.

,..

https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-06-29/U-S-weekly-jobless-claims-drop-by-26-000-to-239-000-gold-price-sinks-to-daily-lows.html

Whether these numbers are real or made up BS, the Fed is going to use them to justify more rate hikes.

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