2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?

[Captainant 27,668]

4 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

1. Massive government spending.

2. ??????

3. Captain One Trick Pony: "Blame Corporations!"

4. Profit

 

It's the tax cuts driving the deficit my dude. They do happen to primarily benefit corporate entities, I'm sorry that triggers you.

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

You really believe your own bullshit, don't you?

When is the last time you paid corporate tax? 

[Incredulity 11,671]

1.) Massive Gov't Deficit Spending

2.) Debt balloons, Inflation awakens, Fed raises interest rates to tame inflation

3.) ?????

4.) Profits

Edited September 5, 2023 by Incredulity

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

Damn those corporations!

[B00M 6,416]

20 minutes ago, Captainant said:

 

It's the tax cuts driving the deficit my dude. They do happen to primarily benefit corporate entities, I'm sorry that triggers you.

the link you shared says the tcja will increase the overall debt by $1-2T total over 10 years. That’s a $200B/year deficit increase, right? That doesn’t explain the $1T increase. I suspect the biggest contributor will be increased interest rates increasing our debt servicing 

 

Edited September 5, 2023 by B00M

[Incredulity 11,671]

Just now, B00M said:

I suspect the biggest contributor will be increased interest rates increasing our debt servicing 

 

When the MSM finally catches on the freak out will be epic.

Stunned surprise that a quintupling of interest rates blows gigantic holes in Gov't budgets

[babysdaddy 2,724]

 

 

[BabaYaga 15,298]

6 minutes ago, B00M said:

I suspect the biggest contributor will be increased interest rates increasing our debt servicing 

 

You think?  We can see the lights out moment clearly - when 100% of our GDP goes to servicing the interest on the debt, we're fooked.  

[Captainant 27,668]

1 minute ago, B00M said:

the link you shared says the tcja will increase the overall debt by $1-2T total over 10 years. That’s a $200B/year deficit increase, right? That doesn’t account for the $1T increase. I suspect the biggest contributor will be increased interest rates increasing our debt servicing 

You're definitely right that the increased interest rate is also ballooning the debt via servicing costs - but the "principal" amount is still significantly increased by that unnecessary economic stimulus that was immediately followed by COVID stimulus.

 

It's also that revenue is still basically flat - despite massive economic growth that was supposed to "pay for the tax cuts". Hard to decrease the debt when you can't pay it down.

[Nathan Jessep 147]

1 minute ago, babysdaddy said:

 

 

Uh oh. There's that word again. 
 

29 minutes ago, Captainant said:

 

It's the tax cuts driving the deficit my dude. They do happen to primarily benefit corporate entities, I'm sorry that triggers you.

Expenditures up 16%, revenues down 7%.
 

My dude. 

[52-80 19,158]

28 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

1. Massive government spending.

2. ??????

3. Captain One Trick Pony: "Blame Corporations!"

4. Profit

yeah its not like US Individuals also dont enjoy some of the lowest income taxes amongst all wealthy nations.

the chickenfuckers have only 1 same chicken to fuck. 

[Captainant 27,668]

If you'd really like to talk brass tacks on deficit, this is pretty good overview from the 2022 CBO outlook report (I linked to a report on the 2018 CBO report previously)

https://www.crfb.org/papers/analysis-cbos-may-2022-budget-and-economic-outlook

Quote

High deficits and debt are driven by a disconnect between spending and revenue. Between FY 2023 and 2032, CBO projects spending will total $72.2 trillion (23.2 percent of GDP) while revenue will total $56.5 trillion (18.1 percent of GDP). In other words, projected revenue will only be enough to cover just over three-quarters of projected spending.

As a result of the aggressive federal response to the COVID-19 crisis, spending rose from $4.4 trillion (21.0 percent of GDP) in FY 2019 to $6.8 trillion (30.5 percent of GDP) in 2021. As COVID relief expires, CBO projects spending will fall below $6 trillion to a low of 21.9 percent of GDP in 2024 before rising to nearly $9 trillion – or 24.3 percent of GDP – by 2032.

 On the revenue side, CBO estimates receipts will surge between FY 2021 and 2022, from $4.0 trillion (18.1 percent of GDP) to $4.8 trillion (19.6 percent of GDP), but then fall back to an average of 18.1 percent of GDP per year thereafter.

The near-term revenue surge is due to a combination of a strong economic recovery, rapid inflation, large capital gains in tax year 2021, the deferral of some taxes through COVID relief measures, and other factors.

Beyond FY 2022, CBO expects revenue to fall as a share of GDP relative to the 2022 level while growing in nominal dollars. Revenue will fall to 18.6 percent of GDP ($4.9 trillion) in 2023 and to a low of 17.6 percent of GDP ($5.0 trillion) in 2025, then rise back to 18.2 percent of GDP ($6.7 trillion) by 2032, after many provisions in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) have expired. 

But fundamentally, the problem is that revenues are too low. We shouldn't be forcing the government to do less and less - we need that sort of scale to be able to realize mass infrastructure projects like fixing the crumbling interstate system, or going to Mars, or even just ensuring that citizens have clean and lead-free water. 

2 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

yeah its not like US Individuals also dont enjoy some of the lowest income taxes amongst all wealthy nations.

the chickenfuckers have only 1 same chicken to fuck.

Yall are so fucking eager to misunderstand my point so you can continue to shitpost. It's incredible. Revenues are down EVERYWHERE - taxes are at historically LOW rates, and especially so for individuals in the highest income bracket. It just so happens that corporations have also received massive tax benefits (that also benefit their shareholders, the wealthy individuals). 

But sure, call me names and dishonestly misunderstand the point. Keep on hitting the classics

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

23 minutes ago, B00M said:

the link you shared says the tcja will increase the overall debt by $1-2T total over 10 years. That’s a $200B/year deficit increase, right? That doesn’t explain the $1T increase. I suspect the biggest contributor will be increased interest rates increasing our debt servicing 

 

Yes, but the interest rates are increasing because (checks talking points) evil corporations are taking profits. 

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

5 minutes ago, Captainant said:

We shouldn't be forcing the government to do less and less

[B00M 6,416]

33 minutes ago, Captainant said:

You're definitely right that the increased interest rate is also ballooning the debt via servicing costs - but the "principal" amount is still significantly increased by that unnecessary economic stimulus that was immediately followed by COVID stimulus.

 

It's also that revenue is still basically flat - despite massive economic growth that was supposed to "pay for the tax cuts". Hard to decrease the debt when you can't pay it down.

What massive economic growth? We only saw 6% growth in ‘21 because our GDP shrank by 3% during covid. We’ve basically averaged 2% GDP growth since 2000 while averaging deficits of 4% of GDP. It seems clear that the only reason we’re seeing any GDP growth at all is because of the deficit spending, and with elevated interest rates, there’s just no way it’s mathematically sustainable. 

 

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

15 minutes ago, B00M said:

What massive economic growth? We only saw 6% growth in ‘21 because our GDP shrank by 3% during covid. We’ve basically averaged 2% GDP growth since 2000 while averaging deficits of 4% of GDP. It seems clear that the only reason we’re seeing any GDP growth at all is because of the deficit spending, and with elevated interest rates, there’s just no way it’s mathematically sustainable. 

But...but...MUH TALKING POINTS

[babysdaddy 2,724]

42 minutes ago, Captainant said:

If you'd really like to talk brass tacks on deficit, this is pretty good overview from the 2022 CBO outlook report (I linked to a report on the 2018 CBO report previously)

https://www.crfb.org/papers/analysis-cbos-may-2022-budget-and-economic-outlook

But fundamentally, the problem is that revenues are too low. We shouldn't be forcing the government to do less and less - we need that sort of scale to be able to realize mass infrastructure projects like fixing the crumbling interstate system, or going to Mars, or even just ensuring that citizens have clean and lead-free water. 

Yall are so fucking eager to misunderstand my point so you can continue to shitpost. It's incredible. Revenues are down EVERYWHERE - taxes are at historically LOW rates, and especially so for individuals in the highest income bracket. It just so happens that corporations have also received massive tax benefits (that also benefit their shareholders, the wealthy individuals). 

But sure, call me names and dishonestly misunderstand the point. Keep on hitting the classics

I don't think anyone is calling you names.  You just don't understand math.  Fundamentally, the problem is spending.  Corporate income tax revenue (and rates) to the US government by year

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FCTAX

The numbers bounce all over the place and, until 2017, the taxable number had been 38%.  It dropped to 21% and there was not a corresponding linear drop in revenues.  Regardless of that, corporate tax income as a percentage of GDP was between 1.5% and just under 2% for the last 30+ years.  Our spending for 2023 is expected to be $6T+ and we have a $2T deficit. Our nominal GDP is around $24T.  The difference (if you used linear numbers which I already pointed out were incorrect) would be around $100B in additional revenue.  The deficit would still be $1.9T due to spending.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/W006RC1A027NBEA  Also, this chart looks like revenues are up.  Play around on the St Louis Fed site.  Might give you some actual numbers to educate your worldview.  

[Incredulity 11,671]

9 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

Also, this chart looks like revenues are up.  Play around on the St Louis Fed site.  Might give you some actual numbers to educate your worldview.  

live look at Captainantifa (yes, I am calling him names)

 

 

Edited September 5, 2023 by Incredulity

[Snake Diggity 4,624]

Equal parts:

Inflation increases govt spending (Medicare and SSI)

Interest rates rising to increase govt debt service

Tax breaks lowering revenue

Seems like errbody tries to CR the shit but the bulk of it is really just covid chickens coming home to roost via inflation/rates.

 

I do think it’s possible that some of the assumptions in the math end up being wrong and things could be dramatically better (or worse) than it seems.  My guess is that if it’s not better (or if it’s worse), we will see rates dropped dramatically in short order to reduce debt service and increase tax revenue (which is a pickle because that would also likely exacerbate inflation, which means higher Medicare/SSI costs, but that would still probably be the play).

[Captainant 27,668]

16 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

live look at Captainantifa (yes, I am calling him names)

If the greatest insult you can think of for someone is that they're anti-fascist.... I think that says more about you than me

[Incredulity 11,671]

Just now, Captainant said:

If the greatest insult you can think of for someone is that they're anti-fascist.... I think that says more about you than me

Newsflash. 

Burning gov't buildings isn't anti-fascist.  Antifa is literally a domestic terrorist group.

[jimmyjazz 45,952]

1 hour ago, Incredulity said:

Newsflash. 

Burning gov't buildings isn't anti-fascist.  Antifa is literally a domestic terrorist group.

Oh, so CR is that way? -->

Jesus, you hypocrite.

[fattyflattie 4,639]

2 hours ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Yes, but the interest rates are increasing because (checks talking points) evil corporations are taking profits. 

Absolutely unacceptable, tbh. Corporate greed of these industrial types is sickening.  Just watching the country burn because of a mission statement and fiduciary duty. 

[Incredulity 11,671]

10 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Oh, so CR is that way? -->

Jesus, you hypocrite.

 

4 hours ago, Captainant said:

https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/briefing-book/how-did-tcja-affect-federal-budget-outlook#:~:text=Conventional estimates,Office's (CBO's) conventional score.

turns out if you cut corporate taxes and create more carveouts for the ultra wealthy, revenues fall! Whodathunkit???

YUP, 

Nothing political here AT ALL.

 

Wake up and smell your own bullshit.

[jimmyjazz 45,952]

6 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

 

YUP, 

Nothing political here AT ALL.

 

Wake up and smell your own bullshit.

No, there IS nothing political about that.  It's factual.  Your post, on the other hand, was totally political, which is fine for the DT and 6St fascists but totes off  limits for anyone else.

Hypocrite.

[Incredulity 11,671]

3 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

our post, on the other hand, was totally political, which is fine for the DT and 6St fascists but totes off  limits for anyone else.

LOL,

 

What a dildo.

[jimmyjazz 45,952]

1 minute ago, Incredulity said:

LOL,

 

What a dildo.

Sick burn.

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

30 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Oh, so CR is that way? -->

 

CR is transitory. 

[jimmyjazz 45,952]

3 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

CR is transitory. 

Snowflakes are forever.

[ChickenSandwich 9,836]

Sustainable?

 

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

11 minutes ago, ChickenSandwich said:

Sustainable?

Nope. Something is going to snap. Prepare your anus.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Cheeseweasel said:

CR is transitory. 

I thought it was at a record high.

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

19 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

I thought it was at a record high.

They certainly smoke their own shit.

[Incredulity 11,671]

1 hour ago, Cheeseweasel said:

They certainly smoke their own shit.

[troph 24,798]

[B00M 6,416]

4 hours ago, ChickenSandwich said:

Sustainable?

 

From those comments 

(I have not verified authenticity)

 

[52-80 19,158]

8 hours ago, babysdaddy said:

I don't think anyone is calling you names.  You just don't understand math.  Fundamentally, the problem is spending.  Corporate income tax revenue (and rates) to the US government by year

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FCTAX

The numbers bounce all over the place and, until 2017, the taxable number had been 38%.  It dropped to 21% and there was not a corresponding linear drop in revenues.  Regardless of that, corporate tax income as a percentage of GDP was between 1.5% and just under 2% for the last 30+ years.  Our spending for 2023 is expected to be $6T+ and we have a $2T deficit. Our nominal GDP is around $24T.  The difference (if you used linear numbers which I already pointed out were incorrect) would be around $100B in additional revenue.  The deficit would still be $1.9T due to spending.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/W006RC1A027NBEA  Also, this chart looks like revenues are up.  Play around on the St Louis Fed site.  Might give you some actual numbers to educate your worldview.  

To extend on this gentleman and scholar's work, here's the change of tax revenue, indexed to when Ronald Reagan - the 3rd most evil man in history - came into power.

The two more or less chase eachother,  During GWH - 2nd most evil man in history - corp taxes actually even ran higher than personal taxes.  (coincidence, not causation)

 

And even if you pulled the corporate line up to match personal line at the very end of the time series, it wouldnt have made a dent in the annual deficit because personal tax revenue is responsible for FIVE TIMES that of the corporate.  its like eating a big mac every day and blaming the slice of cheese for obesity. 

 

 

[52-80 19,158]

9 hours ago, B00M said:

What massive economic growth?

We only saw 6% growth in ‘21 because our GDP shrank by 3% during covid. We’ve basically averaged 2% GDP growth since 2000 while averaging deficits of 4% of GDP. It seems clear that the only reason we’re seeing any GDP growth at all is because of the deficit spending, and with elevated interest rates, there’s just no way it’s mathematically sustainable. 

 

well, even though there was no actual massive economic growth, the stock market went up really high (which i confuse with the economy), and thats super duper bad because other people are not supposed to get wealthier than me.  its totally unfair.

[Incredulity 11,671]

One thing I am absolutely sure of.

The next few TRILLION of spending will be the one that cracks the motherfucking code.  If only the government had spent the last few trillion as wisely as the next super genius spending blowout.

[Bozo_Casanova 26,460]

I’ll take People who give Fuckall about Deficit Spending for a trillion Alex 

13 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

One thing I am absolutely sure of.

The next few TRILLION of spending will be the one that cracks the motherfucking code.  If only the government had spent the last few trillion as wisely as the next super genius spending blowout.

 

[StassneyHorn 6,575]

Did the Heritage Foundation put out it's annual "What if Households spent money like the Government" paper? Did the "King of Debt" comment on the Biden deficit? Why are any of you surprised the deficit blew up when we raised rates

[Nathan Jessep 147]

48 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Did the Heritage Foundation put out it's annual "What if Households spent money like the Government" paper? Did the "King of Debt" comment on the Biden deficit? Why are any of you surprised the deficit blew up when we raised rates

Top economist here calls the increase “stunning”.  Maybe he should’ve logged onto Surly and DM’d @StassneyHornto get the obvious news. 
 

https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1698391469881455098?s=46&t=uKnL2agxvSx0rJZI2y3iWw

 

 

 

 

[tbone_ 14,123]

From those comments 
(I have not verified authenticity)
 

This is absolutely happening.

Can’t remember if I’ve posted this rant before or not but here goes anyway. We are undergoing a massive secular consolidation of the ownership of the housing stock of this country in the hands of fewer and fewer institutional capital groups. 50 years ago every housing unit was owned by an individual, even apartments. Today an ever growing number of households rent and that number is going to keep growing as we keep building more rental housing as a % of overall new housing units.

Since I develop apartment complexes my job is to build vehicles that reach further and further into peoples pockets to facilitate this transfer of wealth. I said that to my boss one day he looked at me like I had three heads. He’s a Wharton B school guy so I know he knew I was right. I think he was just surprised I actually said it out loud.

But that’s our world. Better buy the stocks of the companies that own everything I guess.

[52-80 19,158]

if theres one thing younggins should know, its that wealth accrues more to capital than to labor... working for a wage is not as good as earnings from owning stuff (until it gets seized by the government).

that said, working in America aint so bad...

 

[Captainant 27,668]

6 hours ago, 52-80 said:

if theres one thing younggins should know, its that wealth accrues more to capital than to labor... working for a wage is not as good as earnings from owning stuff (until it gets seized by the government).

Gotta love a good ol "fuck you I got mine" attitude that dishonestly frames paying taxes as """gOvErNmEnT sEiZuRe""". What an earnest and intellectually honest position to start from. 

Like... Y'all do know what happens when people run out of money to buy stuff, right? Although I guess to you ghouls you'd just call it a "buying opportunity" while completely overlooking the destruction of the social contract and a reversion to a flavor of serfdom in which the wage earners never truly own anything and are subjects to their landlords. 

There's plenty to go around, it's just that people think that it's their god given responsibility to extract as much wealth as they can and their right to exploit everyone and anything they hold a power dynamic over. We weren't always such fucking business ghouls as a nation of businessmen 

Edited September 6, 2023 by Captainant

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

[Incredulity 11,671]

12 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Gotta love a good ol "fuck you I got mine" attitude that dishonestly frames paying taxes as """gOvErNmEnT sEiZuRe""". What an earnest and intellectually honest position to start from. 

Like... Y'all do know what happens when people run out of money to buy stuff, right? Although I guess to you ghouls you'd just call it a "buying opportunity" while completely overlooking the destruction of the social contract and a reversion to a flavor of serfdom in which the wage earners never truly own anything and are subjects to their landlords. 

There's plenty to go around, it's just that people think that it's their god given responsibility to extract as much wealth as they can and their right to exploit everyone and anything they hold a power dynamic over. We weren't always such fucking business ghouls as a nation of businessmen 

It really sucks you keep getting passed over for promotion.  Maybe consider changing employers.  You can do this All-Star!!!

[Captainant 27,668]

1 minute ago, Incredulity said:

It really sucks you keep getting passed over for promotion.  Maybe consider changing employers.  You can do this All-Star!!!

You're missing the point of this entire exchange: we are nearing the point where a wage earner isn't really fit for America anymore. Getting promoted (for a second time by this employer) gives me a raise that gets me back to where I was a couple years ago pre-inflation, but we can't afford to buy a new home in advance of a larger family - everything in 2023 costs 60% to 100% MORE than it did in 2018. 

The only way to buck that right now, as correctly called out by 52-80, is to emulate the investor/owner class and seek opportunities to exploit people less fortunate than you, in hopes that you can one day break into the ultra-wealthy class

9 hours ago, tbone_ said:

Since I develop apartment complexes my job is to build vehicles that reach further and further into peoples pockets to facilitate this transfer of wealth. I said that to my boss one day he looked at me like I had three heads. He’s a Wharton B school guy so I know he knew I was right. I think he was just surprised I actually said it out loud.

Tbone has got it right on the nose here. Business, especially housing, is no longer about growing wealth and opportunity - it's about transferring it to the investor class. Which just so happens to be who's pumping the most cash into the legislative system and literally writing the rules of the game to pull the ladder up after themselves.

[Incredulity 11,671]

5 minutes ago, Captainant said:

You're missing the point of this entire exchange

Oh I get it.  You cos-play as Trotsky.

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

Blaming business for inflation is like blaming the football for the interception you just threw.