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2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?

Reagan1k

By Reagan1k
in Business and Markets

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52-80
52-80
Bateshorn
Bateshorn

The only thing more predictable than the GOP running up huge deficits on tax cuts and military spending, is each one suddenly becoming horrified by deficit spending 5 mins after a Democrat is sworn in

PilotsError
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52-80

52-80 19147

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13 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

. . . not to mention houses ain't groceries.

correct.  laws of supply and demand only affect things selectively.  so for housing it's so elementary it's s/d "101" for housing, but a wheel of cheese is extortionate collusion.

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45893

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, 52-80 said:

correct.  laws of supply and demand only affect things selectively.  so for housing it's so elementary it's s/d "101" for housing, but a wheel of cheese is extortionate collusion.

You know better than this.

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LCHorn

LCHorn 2615

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38 minutes ago, bernorange said:

Markets don't seem very happy with the CPI print.  Fed isn't going to cut rates with inflation refusing to stay down like Cool Hand Luke getting pummeled in the yard.

MBS is up, 10 year T note is flat, DOW is down .30%, S&P is down .42% as I write this.  That's not "we're unhappy" at all, in my opinion. 

That said, sounds like Google did a smaller round of layoffs last night--let's see if the other tech firms decide to follow. 

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Hal Finney

Hal Finney 174

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Posted
12 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

It's not THAT crazy.  Same bag is $3.64 in Austin.

Now, I'm not sure why anyone over the age of, say, 16 would eat that shit, but that's a different issue.

No I meant how wrecked and dingy it looked.

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Neonmoon

Neonmoon 38129

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

So rent shopping pays off?  Renewing a lease leads to higher cost?  Seems logical, if I understand the metric correctly.

New rents are super cheap compared to years past. So don’t renew your lease. Move or negotiate lower rent. 

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Guest

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Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

It's not THAT crazy.  Same bag is $3.64 in Austin.

Now, I'm not sure why anyone over the age of, say, 16 would eat that shit, but that's a different issue.

 

56 minutes ago, Hal Finney said:

No I meant how wrecked and dingy it looked.

Taken in Austin. I noticed how nasty it looked when I snapped the photo too. Bottom shelf of the stand.

Just thought it funny as this was my first trip to the store since I posed the article about the French grocery store calling out PepsiCo/Frito-Lay for ridiculous price hikes. Voila! They are now on sale for $1 less.

Also, if eating Doritos over the age of 16 is wrong, I don't want to be right.

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gmr548

gmr548 16576

Posted
Posted
On 1/10/2024 at 3:14 PM, Bozo_Casanova said:

Never mind the politics of this post we don’t have enough housing. The biggest input to the demand side was the combination of 

1) Low rates (monetary stimulus by the Fed to encourage investment ahead of savings)

2) The 2001, 2003, and 2017 Tax cuts (Fiscal stimulus expressly designed to protect/inflate asset values) 

3) Millennials entering the workforce 

And 

4) The 2007-2010 financial crisis

Elizabeth Warren sure as shit hasn’t endorsed #2, so I’m not sure Elizabeth Warren has to do with the other 3.

but either way, local exclusionary zoning and bad planning standards prevented the infill boom that should have happened in response to the above. We need more housing.

IOW Go get your shinebox and take it to the CR.

But what you have to understand is FOX News said she is bad. And my uncle said so on Facebook too, right after he brilliantly protected his privacy by copy-pasting a paragraph about not taking his photos than had only two or three misspellings. 

4 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

So rent shopping pays off?  Renewing a lease leads to higher cost?  Seems logical, if I understand the metric correctly.

While it depends on the market, in the current climate yes because there has been a surge in new supply. This has not really been the case for a while.

If I were an operator would I be playing hardball on lease renewal increases and letting people walk in this environment, only to end up leasing the unit at a similar rate to what I could have renewed at after incurring turnover costs and loss of rental income? No, probably not, but it does seem to be the case that some are. Most of 2024 is likely going to be pretty flat in terms of rents as that supply surge carries into the new year but I expect rents to start increasing notably again by 2025.

In a relative sense it's a pretty good time to be a renter, for once. Also CPI rent data sucks in general and is probably inflating (hehe) inflation numbers a bit, just as it likely undersold inflation on the up-slope.

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Captainant

Captainant 27639

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Well it'll help when companies aren't gouging for profits as much too

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/jan/19/us-inflation-caused-by-corporate-profits

Quote

Nearly 60% of the drop in key goods and services’ inputs was driven by large declines in energy costs, such as jet fuel and diesel fuel, while transportation and warehousing costs have fallen by nearly 4% since June 2022 peaks.

Still, prices remain high. Consumers are still paying about 25% more for groceries, the report notes as an example.

Corporations maintain high prices by exploiting cost shocks caused by events like the Ukraine war and coordinating price hikes, said Isabella Weber, a University of Massachusetts Amherst economist who was not part of the paper.

The shocks create an environment in which it is safe for firms to increase prices as they expect their competitors to do the same, said Weber.

“This is a form of implicit collusion,” she said. “Firms do not even need to talk to one another to know that a cost shock is a great time to raise prices. But when costs fall, price setting firms do not have any incentive to decrease prices.”

If no firms launch a price war, Weber added, then companies “hold the line” on prices and widen margins. She pointed to food processors as an example.

 

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Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

Best consumer sentiment reading since July 2021.

GENsK5RXEAAfgwr?format=png&name=900x900

Current conditions, future conditions, inflation expectations all much better than expected.

 

That sentiment chart is wild.

Global pandemic with huge unknowns that literally pauses our normal way of life and completely transforms how we live, work, and play? Sure, I don't feel that great.

Inflation? Aw fuck no, everything is going to hell.

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troph

troph 24781

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 1/17/2024 at 2:39 PM, StassneyHorn said:

Is this double couponing?

IMG_0236.thumb.jpeg.719a12553d7ed0a7d740a52e9f1d299e.jpeg

That’s triple coupons. Analog. Sunday paper. Scissors, don’t get excited not lesbian scissors, old fat grandma scissors but don’t use her fabric scissors she’ll rip your face off. Now get to cutting.

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fattyflattie

fattyflattie 4639

Posted
Posted
52 minutes ago, troph said:

That’s triple coupons. Analog. Sunday paper. Scissors, don’t get excited not lesbian scissors, old fat grandma scissors but don’t use her fabric scissors she’ll rip your face off. Now get to cutting.

Damn. Fabric scissors took me back instantly. Well done. 

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45893

Posted
Posted

I'm not sure why you called me out, but hey, it's a challenge.  I downloaded the data and it appears to me that the tweet you linked represents a classic case of saying data say one thing when in reality they say another.  If I plot the month-to-month change in that metric, it's pretty clear that prices have STABILIZED over that time frame.  Just because a chart looks hyperbolic doesn't mean it is.  Good luck in your next fishing expedition, and please ignore my refusal to fuck with Excel any more than I already have.  Next?

image.thumb.png.7e6300f0e01e524c75391d3aa3aa81a6.png

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bernorange

bernorange 8359

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Quote

.. inflation reduces purchasing power. Data show the changing value of the dollar and its purchasing power. Figure 1 shows the value of the dollar set at 100 (representing full value) in 1983. The value of the dollar is 37 in 2021. This means that since 1983, the purchasing power of a dollar has been reduced by 63 percent. ...

https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/page1-econ/2021/12/01/a-dollars-worth-inflation-is-real

 

 

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Posted
Posted

The debt worries me. It worries me more because I don't think the people who have the power to solve the crisis have any interest in doing so.

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5541

Posted
Posted
21 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

The debt worries me. It worries me more because I don't think the people who have the power to solve the crisis have any interest in doing so.

the plan has always been to kick the can down the road, and then fund appropriations to build a longer road.
it has worked for quite a while, but when interest becomes the largest annual expenditure it seem s unsubstainable; but it has been a good run.

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babysdaddy

babysdaddy 2721

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4 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

the plan has always been to kick the can down the road, and then fund appropriations to build a longer road.
it has worked for quite a while, but when interest becomes the largest annual expenditure it seem s unsubstainable; but it has been a good run.

that's how you know, without a doubt, that QE will be back at some point.  Suppressing rates is the only way the show goes on.  

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Incredulity

Incredulity 11657

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16 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

that's how you know, without a doubt, that QE will be back at some point.  Suppressing rates is the only way the show goes on.  

Yes, every time I try to figure out what the Fed will do in the near future I conclude keeping rates about where they are makes a lot of sense.  Then I consider the debt costs and the only options are significant tax increases or accommodative monetary policy.

perhaps we thread the needle and grow our way out of this, but I figure the odds of that are 3720 to 1.

 

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