2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4975]

Yeah, total net worth may have increased, but if you are young and have an expanding family you are actually worse off. Say you owned a Home worth 200k in 2019. It's now worth 300k. Cool. But you've had a couple of kids since then. So you need the kind of house that was worth 300k in 2019. That house is now 450k. And you haven't seen enough salary increases to quite keep up with inflation. And interest rates now make that house even less affordable. The mortgage payment on a 200k loan at 3% is $843 per month. Assuming you have no other equity in your home other than the discrepancy in the price, you need a mortgage for 350k. That's gonna run you $2329 per month at 7%. And your making less real money than you were at the start of it all. With more mouths to feed and more bodies to clothe. Your really on top of the world. 

[52-80 19147]

11 hours ago, NotActuallyALonghorn said:

Yeah, total net worth may have increased, but if you are young and have an expanding family you are actually worse off. Say you owned a Home worth 200k in 2019. It's now worth 300k. Cool. But you've had a couple of kids since then. So you need the kind of house that was worth 300k in 2019. That house is now 450k. And you haven't seen enough salary increases to quite keep up with inflation. And interest rates now make that house even less affordable. The mortgage payment on a 200k loan at 3% is $843 per month. Assuming you have no other equity in your home other than the discrepancy in the price, you need a mortgage for 350k. That's gonna run you $2329 per month at 7%. And your making less real money than you were at the start of it all. With more mouths to feed and more bodies to clothe. Your really on top of the world. 

That's using a single-sided view of the market.  But it takes 2 sides to make a market.

The marginal new participants are shopping entry level houses.  The larger houses are discretionary.

IF the larger houses become more unaffordable, lower demand will reduce its price.  New buyers still want want your entry level house, AND its existing occupants want to stay in place (because they cant afford the larger one), so it will command higher relative value.

"Salary increases have not kept up with inflation" is simply untrue.

Family house ownership rate is the same it has been for decades.  House ownership rate by age bracket is the same as it has always been.

Latest Housing Affordability Index is above 100.  100 =  median family earns enough for a mortgage on a median home.

If you have more children, yes you have to feed and clothe them.  Is that somehow a uniquely unsolvable problem now compared to any time and place in history.  In the past, were larger houses discounted for families and children given free food vouchers or something?

[LCHorn 2615]

5 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

If you have more children, yes you have to feed and clothe them.  Is that somehow a uniquely unsolvable problem now compared to any time and place in history.  In the past, were larger houses discounted for families and children given free food vouchers or something?

Bravo, sir

[bernorange 8359]

I hear that Baltimore is selling houses for $1 if you commit to living in it.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/baltimore-wants-to-sell-hundreds-of-vacant-homes-for-1-each/ar-BB1kdX0l

[Nice Guy Eddie 13509]

1 hour ago, bernorange said:

I hear that Baltimore is selling houses for $1 if you commit to living in it.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/baltimore-wants-to-sell-hundreds-of-vacant-homes-for-1-each/ar-BB1kdX0l

look out for the dead bodies from Marlo's crew.

[Neonmoon 38129]

8 hours ago, bernorange said:

I hear that Baltimore is selling houses for $1 if you commit to living in it.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/baltimore-wants-to-sell-hundreds-of-vacant-homes-for-1-each/ar-BB1kdX0l

Hard pass 

[Incredulity 11657]

Slap together a free trade coffee shop, micro-distillery, a beard wax emporium, and a ketamine therapy office…it will gentrify.

[Daddy Fat Sax 53]

This is a fascinating clip. This guy is very plugged in. He says the last fed statements were signs that they will accept higher inflation. Also the economy is slowing but they want that slowing to be “as orderly as possible”.

 

[Hefeweizen 5310]

These AI bots are getting creative with their user names.

[Incredulity 11657]

El-Erian is quite often exactly right on matters such as this.  Dismiss him at your own peril.

 

[tbone_ 14113]

Supply side has always been the problem. But when you are a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

[Neonmoon 38129]

14 hours ago, Hefeweizen said:

These AI bots are getting creative with their user names.

It’s Cum Rocket aka GRHorn. He’s a cancer the mods will not excise. 

[Snake Diggity 4620]

2 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

It’s Cum Rocket aka GRHorn. He’s a cancer the mods will not excise. 

It’s ridiculous that users are allowed to get banned multiple times and just create another account and immediately continue doing the same shit that got them banned in the first place.  It renders the ignore feature useless.  A cancer on the site is a very good metaphor.

[bernorange 8359]

45 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

... just create another account and immediately continue doing the same shit that got them banned in the first place...

Posting a tweet from CNBC Squwkbox is the sme shit that got him banned previously?  That's the bar for Surly pitchforks?

[Guest]

Yeah, y'all that are bitching about that post are insane. 

[Hefeweizen 5310]

7 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Yeah, y'all that are bitching about that post are insane. 

I don’t think the post is the problem, dude.  It’s what comes next.

[Neonmoon 38129]

11 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

It’s ridiculous that users are allowed to get banned multiple times and just create another account and immediately continue doing the same shit that got them banned in the first place.  It renders the ignore feature useless.  A cancer on the site is a very good metaphor.

 

10 hours ago, bernorange said:

Posting a tweet from CNBC Squwkbox is the sme shit that got him banned previously?  That's the bar for Surly pitchforks?

Snake Diggity was not referring to the CNBC post. 

8 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Yeah, y'all that are bitching about that post are insane. 

Hence the confusion 

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4975]

19 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

It’s ridiculous that users are allowed to get banned multiple times and just create another account and immediately continue doing the same shit that got them banned in the first place.  It renders the ignore feature useless.  A cancer on the site is a very good metaphor.

Wouldn't herpes be a better analogy?

[Storm the Field 5294]

Consumer sentiment at highest level in 3 years. Inflation expectations drop back below 3%

For the first time in 4 years, more people do not expect a recession than do. 

[StassneyHorn 6575]

PCE gonna come in around 2.2 tomorrow and Jerome will let out an audible ‘gasm that keeps himself sitting at his desk for a few minutes.

[washparkhorn 9939]

Greed-flation continues its meteoric rise

 

[gmr548 16576]

10 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

PCE gonna come in around 2.2 tomorrow and Jerome will let out an audible ‘gasm that keeps himself sitting at his desk for a few minutes.

 

[Thetexashammer 1062]

[StassneyHorn 6575]

Please post that in the charts with no discussion and context thread

[Neonmoon 38129]

PCE & Core PCE as expected. Personal Spending up a little. 

[Thetexashammer 1062]

1.6 trillion in interest by the end of the year. Buckle your seat belt Dorothy.

[Guest]

I laughed. We really going to get worked up because we have to pay $0.15 more for a cheeseburger? Gladly pay it.

Now do a post on how much I'm paying for self-employed health insurance. That's the real inflation that hurts.
 

 

[Storm the Field 5294]

Manufacturing PMI prices paid came in hot yesterday.

Services PMI today is basically the reverse. Prices paid index sunk to a 4 year low.

Edited April 3 by Storm the Field

[Incredulity 11657]

1 hour ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

I laughed. We really going to get worked up because we have to pay $0.15 more for a cheeseburger? Gladly pay it.

Now do a post on how much I'm paying for self-employed health insurance. That's the real inflation that hurts.
 

 

Now do McDonalds, Burger King...etc.  

It's commonly known that fast food labor is about 25% of sales.  Cheeseburger was $4. (which is low comparatively)  Labor was $1.  Labor went up 25%.  Labor is now a $1.25.   They will have to charge more than $.25 more per Cheeseburger to maintain margins.

They are choosing to boil the frog and not jump the price all at once.  It will get there.

 

[Js1 85296]

6 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

I laughed. We really going to get worked up because we have to pay $0.15 more for a cheeseburger? Gladly pay it.

Now do a post on how much I'm paying for self-employed health insurance. That's the real inflation that hurts.
 

 

Cheeseburger, fries and shake at In-and-Out - $9.25 before tax

Same thing at Whataburger or McDonalds - at least $13-$15

[BabaYaga 15289]

Yep.  This is one of many incremental price hikes.  Corporations never absorb cost increases - it's passed on to the consumer

[Nice Guy Eddie 13509]

My high yield savings account just announced a rate drop from 4.5 to 4.4%. 

[B00M 6414]

On 3/31/2024 at 4:28 PM, Thetexashammer said:

1.6 trillion in interest by the end of the year. Buckle your seat belt Dorothy.

$35T, $50T, $75T… what’s the difference? Just take control of the fed and put interest rates at 0%

 

[Daddy Fat Sax 53]

On 3/31/2024 at 4:28 PM, Thetexashammer said:

1.6 trillion in interest by the end of the year. Buckle your seat belt Dorothy.

Well when you put it that way, it’s obvious why we’re raising the inflation target. Need to justify lowering rates. 

[Hefeweizen 5310]

8 hours ago, BeardIP said:

Here’s a worst-case scenario for investors, according to economists at Bank of America: “Job growth of 250k+, stronger-than-expected wage growth, and a fall in the unemployment rate would likely further price out the chance of a June cut,” they wrote in a research note this week.

Your idea of worst case is weird.  Continued growth and no rate cut is probably 1a from best, but that’s ridiculously narrow view of the market.  I would say contraction would be significantly worse all around.

[babysdaddy 2721]

 

No rate cuts for you! Sorry real estate boyz

[tbone_ 14113]

The 10 year can eat a dick

[ChickenSandwich 9829]

7 hours ago, babysdaddy said:

 

No rate cuts for you! Sorry real estate boyz

Full time time workers fell, part time soared, 2nd and third jobs also increased (each job counts as an individual even if performed by the same person)  

Don’t give up hope yet  

 

 

[Bozo_Casanova 26437]

On 8/12/2021 at 8:09 PM, Bozo_Casanova said:

I think the important thing is that the sun will drown us in fire. Maybe tomorrow, maybe eventually. 

So far so good

[TxTower 650]

 
No rate cuts for you! Sorry real estate boyz

Baring some complete unforeseen economic collapse, June is now definitely off the table and cuts for the rest of 2024 are in question as well.

Higher for longer.

[Boss Hogg 808]

1 hour ago, TxTower said:

Baring some complete unforeseen economic collapse, June is now definitely off the table and cuts for the rest of 2024 are in question as well.

Higher for longer.

 

On 4/5/2024 at 9:08 AM, tbone_ said:

The 10 year can eat a dick

Starting to see trickles of syndicated multifam bros blowing up. Evidently a lot of those deals involve ARMs or shorter term loans that have to rollover now at higher rates. They need they to come down. Glad I got out of my little piece of one a while back. 

[bernorange 8359]

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/05/fed-governor-bowman-says-additional-rate-hike-could-be-needed-if-inflation-stays-high.html

DebbieDowner.gif

[UTPhil2006 3806]

2 hours ago, bernorange said:

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/05/fed-governor-bowman-says-additional-rate-hike-could-be-needed-if-inflation-stays-high.html

DebbieDowner.gif

Basically the fed knows about as much as the average shaggy poster it seems. 

[Parliament 14249]

And they’re less confident in their incompetence than we are.  Shaggy > Fed

[Bozo_Casanova 26437]

I was at a conference a few weeks ago where some very serious bond and fixed income guys on a panel were all agreeing and nodding to each other that the rate environment was punitive and restrictive and also that the economy is really robust, unemployment is very low and there’s no reason to expect either wages or asset prices to stop rising. 

Things are tough all over!!!

Edited April 7 by Bozo_Casanova

[TxTower 650]

So chances of a rate hike are on the table?

Yep.

FWiW comrades I don’t think we are raising at this consideration yet but we ain’t cutting anytime soon.

[StassneyHorn 6575]

On 12/28/2023 at 4:16 PM, StassneyHorn said:

Q1 job numbers in 2024 are going to be so fucking hot that all the same annoying people will start asking “Will the fed reverse course and raise rates?” Good news on the economy will be bad trading days again.

[52-80 19147]

Have the low-information cabal raised their pitchforks against the Chocolate Barons yet

 

 

 

Edited April 7 by 52-80

[52-80 19147]

7 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I was at a conference a few weeks ago where some very serious bond and fixed income guys on a panel were all agreeing and nodding to each other that the rate environment was punitive and restrictive and also that the economy is really robust, unemployment is very low and there’s no reason to expect either wages or asset prices to stop rising. 

Things are tough all over!!!

If you’re 45 year old senior fixed income manager, the average effr during your entire working tenure is….1.5%

[jimmyjazz 45893]

5 hours ago, 52-80 said:

Have the low-information cabal raised their pitchforks against the Chocolate Barons yet

*Has