2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?

[Thetexashammer 1,062]

40 minutes ago, tbone_ said:

This is really the only true actual solution.

Last time I looked, the VA removed maximum limits on its loans. They had been around $450k. I am still having trouble believeing I can do a million dollar VA loan, but holy shit if I can it's gonna be awesome.

[LCHorn 2,620]

13 hours ago, Thetexashammer said:

Last time I looked, the VA removed maximum limits on its loans. They had been around $450k. I am still having trouble believeing I can do a million dollar VA loan, but holy shit if I can it's gonna be awesome.

I’ve originated several of these and they are indeed AWESOME.  Even better if you are eligible to have your funding fee waved.  
 

Of note, I’ve not seen an investor (the entities to which we sell the loans on the secondary market) willing to go above $1.5m on the loan side (so effectively that’s the max loan amount), and bear in mind these loans are particularly valuable in an improving rate environment because of how cheap and easy they are to refinance for a lower rate.

Its such a great option that when I talk to veteran borrowers we spend a good bit of time mapping out their long term purchase plans-if you have $200k of your housing benefit locked up on an investment property you won’t be able to take advantage of this because you need your full benefit available to go $0 down at prices exceeding the conforming loan limit.  In other words, if you are a boot Lt or lance corporal buying a first home in Killeen, it might be prudent to wait to use your VA home loan benefit and use a different loan for an early career purchase (if the intention is to hold onto the property).

[UTPhil2006 3,807]

Very good advice above 

[washparkhorn 9,939]

Why orthodox economic theories fail: they pretend externalities do not exist,

[BabaYaga 15,300]

32 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

Why orthodox economic theories fail: they pretend externalities do not exist,

[Bozo_Casanova 26,472]

6 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

Why orthodox economic theories fail: they pretend externalities do not exist,

Me, after twenty years of ranting about Jean Baptiste Say, Adam Smith, and Henry George:

 

[Incredulity 11,675]

PCE higher than expected.

GDP lower than expected.

Market in the shitter.

Stagflation back in the conversation?

[Snake Diggity 4,625]

2 hours ago, Incredulity said:

PCE higher than expected.

GDP lower than expected.

Market in the shitter.

Stagflation back in the conversation?

Why does bad news for the world economy make you erect?

[Incredulity 11,675]

4 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Why does bad news for the world economy make you erect?

why don't you want to discuss the current economic data?

[Snake Diggity 4,625]

5 hours ago, Incredulity said:

why don't you want to discuss the current economic data?

I’m fine with discussing it.  It’s just odd (and telling) that you run to this thread with your peepee wagging every time something bad happens.

I have a hard time seeing unemployment rise to the point of stagflation.  What’s it called when there’s moderately high inflation, moderately low economic growth (not recession), and low unemployment?

[TxTower 652]

I’m fine with discussing it. ...  What’s it called when there’s moderately high inflation, moderately low economic growth (not recession), and low unemployment?

Higher for longer.

[Snake Diggity 4,625]

53 minutes ago, BeardIP said:

the Fed is stuck in “monetary policy purgatory,” said KPMG’s chief economist, as it deliberates if and when it will cut rates. All options are on the table, including a dreaded rate hike.

I will be very surprised if they raise rates again this year.  They don’t want to tank the market before the election.  Raising rates is far more likely to do that than letting inflation stay higher than desired.

[Snake Diggity 4,625]

31 minutes ago, BeardIP said:

Who is they? The Fed? The alleged non-political, election-agnostic agency?

I really don’t want to CR this, but the Fed’s rate decisions have political implications, one way or the other.  Whether or not the Fed is actively trying to assist the incumbent, or just trying not to help the challenger, or just doing their best to have as minimal impact on politics as possible, the closer we get to November, the less likely I think it is that the Fed does anything outside of what they’ve already announced they’ve planned.

Edited April 26 by Snake Diggity

[jimmyjazz 45,963]

21 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

I’m fine with discussing it.  It’s just odd (and telling) that you run to this thread with your peepee wagging every time something bad happens.

Well, we know it's not politically driven.  They tell us so.

[Bozo_Casanova 26,472]

I thought about not posting this here because of the recent epidemic of vagina sand about political content outside the cloak room. Since it’s on the table at this moment, however- inflation is first and foremost a monetary phenomenon. Should the president be directly consulted on monetary policy if otherwise be able to put their thumb on the scale? Because a certain candidate’s advisers are drafting proposals. I’m sure that’s fine and would definitely not return us to the free cocaine monetary era. 

WSJ

 

[Biff Tannen 45,691]

8 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I thought about not posting this here because of the recent epidemic of vagina sand about political content outside the cloak room. Since it’s on the table at this moment, however- inflation is first and foremost a monetary phenomenon. Should the president be directly consulted on monetary policy if otherwise be able to put their thumb on the scale? Because a certain candidate’s advisers are drafting proposals. I’m sure that’s fine and would definitely not return us to the free cocaine monetary era. 

WSJ

 

 

 

Quote

[The disgraced former president's] allies are quietly drafting proposals that would attempt to erode the Federal Reserve’s independence if the former president wins a second term, in the midst of a deepening divide among his advisers over how aggressively to challenge the central bank’s authority.

Former Trump administration officials and other supporters of the presumptive GOP nominee have in recent months discussed a range of proposals, from incremental policy changes to a long-shot assertion that the president himself should play a role in setting interest rates. A small group of the former president’s allies—whose work is so secretive that even some prominent former Trump economic aides weren’t aware of it—has produced a roughly 10-page document outlining a policy vision for the central bank, according to people familiar with the matter.

 

[bernorange 8,362]

14 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

... Should the president be directly consulted on monetary policy if otherwise be able to put their thumb on the scale? ...

Let gold compete with the Fed's fiat as unpegged legal tender (no capital gains or sales taxes and let it have full legal tender status in parallel with the USD at market rates) and that wouldn't matter.  Short of that, the answer is obviously fuck no.

[UTPhil2006 3,807]

Get us some 4-5% rates and the devil himself can run the Fed for all I care 

[lucious leftfoot 126]

On 4/26/2024 at 9:31 AM, TxTower said:

 

Higher for longer.

 

That will be a problem. Rates where there are means $1.7T dollars in interest over the next 12 months. 
 

 

Total tax revenue was $4.44T in 2023. 

Edited April 27 by lucious leftfoot

[Incredulity 11,675]

On 4/25/2024 at 3:04 PM, Snake Diggity said:

I’m fine with discussing it.  It’s just odd (and telling) that you run to this thread with your peepee wagging every time something bad happens.

I have a hard time seeing unemployment rise to the point of stagflation.  What’s it called when there’s moderately high inflation, moderately low economic growth (not recession), and low unemployment?

Bullshit.  The thread topic is inflation.  A phenomenon the economy hadn’t dealt with for about 40 years.  Yes, its a bad thing.  

Maybe the forum isn’t for you if your fe-fes get hurt when anyone discusses the economy.

[Incredulity 11,675]

16 minutes ago, lucious leftfoot said:

That will be a problem. Rates where there are means $1.7T dollars in interest over the next 12 months. 
 

 

Total tax revenue was $4.44T in 2023. 

Massive deficits for the foreseeable future.  Or rate cuts.

Nobody has the political will(probably rightfully so, political suicide) to raise enough taxes to deal with the issue.

[jimmyjazz 45,963]

19 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Bullshit.  The thread topic is inflation.  A phenomenon the economy hadn’t dealt with for about 40 years.  Yes, its a bad thing.  

You don't post when the print is good.  You post with a massive inflation boner when the print is bad.  It's not hard to figure out where you stand.

[Incredulity 11,675]

2 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

You don't post when the print is good.  You post with a massive inflation boner when the print is bad.  It's not hard to figure out where you stand.

I stand in economic reality. Unlike yourself and the double coupon, sack lunch head up ass crew

[jimmyjazz 45,963]

Just now, Incredulity said:

I stand in economic reality. Unlike yourself and the double coupon, sack lunch head up ass crew

You stand in a reality you've created for yourself, dumbass.

[Incredulity 11,675]

5 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

You stand in a reality you've created for yourself, dumbass.

 

Truly a rapists wit

[lucious leftfoot 126]

2 hours ago, Incredulity said:

Massive deficits for the foreseeable future.  Or rate cuts.

Nobody has the political will(probably rightfully so, political suicide) to raise enough taxes to deal with the issue.

There’s a recent proposal to increase the capital gains tax, which would also include unrealized gains. 

[Incredulity 11,675]

2 minutes ago, lucious leftfoot said:

There’s a recent proposal to increase the capital gains tax, which would also include unrealized gains. 

Biden’s proposal isn’t going to happen.  

[Incredulity 11,675]

8 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

slashing revenue

Not this shit again.

 

Federal tax revenue has been in the same approximately 15-18% of GDP for 7 decades 

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFRGDA188S
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[jimmyjazz 45,963]

12 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Federal tax revenue has been in the same approximately 15-18% of GDP for 7 decades

I know you struggle with math and graphs and whatnot, but operating at the lower end of that range is a problem.  DM for details.

[B00M 6,416]

16 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

I know you struggle with math and graphs and whatnot, but operating at the lower end of that range is a problem.  DM for details.

I actually would appreciate seeing how much of the current deficit is due to reduced revenues and his much is due to increased borrowing costs. If you feel like nerding out a bit 

[Incredulity 11,675]

56 minutes ago, B00M said:

I actually would appreciate seeing how much of the current deficit is due to reduced revenues and his much is due to increased borrowing costs. If you feel like nerding out a bit 

Cliffs:

it’s not a revenue problem.  It’s a spending problem which is being amplified by higher rates.

[lucious leftfoot 126]

2 hours ago, B00M said:

I actually would appreciate seeing how much of the current deficit is due to reduced revenues and his much is due to increased borrowing costs. If you feel like nerding out a bit 

 

18 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

I know you struggle with math and graphs and whatnot, but operating at the lower end of that range is a problem.  DM for details.

US deficit fiscal year 2023 was $1.7T. 
 

Raising revenue from 16.2% of GDP to 18%, the top of the range, would gain $500B. 
 

51 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

So, this is an important question: when you say “the” economy, what economy do you mean?
Because the insane thing to me is that all of these types talk and act like inflation is a thing in the US…and only the US. Instead of it being a fucking GLOBAL issue. Inflation is and has been worldwide, triggered by the cascade of economic fallout from the pandemic, and the waves that set off.
So, if you want to talk about how US inflation is, the intellectually honest discussion to have is how we’re doing relative to our peers.
But you’ll see that none of these folks want to have that conversation. Nope. Inflation is only happening here, and it’s entirely on Biden. Don’t look at the inflation everywhere else, at even higher rates, in countries where Biden ISN’T POTUS.
It’s all so stupid. But stupid is our national ethos.

Projected inflation  in G7 countries in 2024. From the IMF

Uk 2.6

USA 2.9
Italy 1.7

France 2.4

Germany 2.4

Canada 2.6

Japan 2.2

https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/PCPIPCH@WEO/WEOWORLD/VEN
 

[jimmyjazz 45,963]

Seems like those inflation projections are optimistic.  

[Brisketexan 105,152]

Projected inflation  in G7 countries in 2024. From the IMF
Uk 2.6
USA 2.9
Italy 1.7
France 2.4
Germany 2.4
Canada 2.6
Japan 2.2
https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/PCPIPCH@WEO/WEOWORLD/VEN
 

Yep…and then net that against each country’s projected GDP growth to get the whole picture (esp as they are partially companion measures). Most every economy would love our mix of inflation and GDP.

[Incredulity 11,675]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Nope. Inflation is only happening here, and it’s entirely on Biden

 Nobody has said that.  It’s been accused as subtext ad-nauseam.  

First we had the denial phase…

then we had the bargaining phase…

 

classic stages of grief by the double couponing crew.

 

 

 

 

[Brisketexan 105,152]

 Nobody has said that.  It’s been accused as subtext ad-nauseam.  
First we had the denial phase…
then we had the bargaining phase…
 
classic stages of grief by the double couponing crew.
 
 
 
 

Then what, pray tell, do YOU think the primary factors are driving our inflation and GDP numbers?

[lucious leftfoot 126]

6 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Yep…and then net that against each country’s projected GDP growth to get the whole picture (esp as they are partially companion measures). Most every economy would love our mix of inflation and GDP.

 

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

Then what, pray tell, do YOU think the primary factors are driving our inflation and GDP numbers?

debt. 
unsustainable. But how to tell when the party ends?

[jimmyjazz 45,963]

14 minutes ago, lucious leftfoot said:

debt. 
unsustainable. But how to tell when the party ends?

I thought we were promised the debt would be wiped out by now?

[Captainant 27,679]

21 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I thought we were promised the debt would be wiped out by now?

I remember hearing overtures of "the growth will pay for the debt!" at the time of the last major round of tax cuts

[Incredulity 11,675]

42 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Then what, pray tell, do YOU think the primary factors are driving our inflation and GDP numbers?

1.) supply shocks from lockdowns

2.) demand boom from stimulus 

Currently we are dealing with knock on effects of the first wave of inflation that make inflation sticky, such as ballooning commercial/business insurance.

[Incredulity 11,675]

27 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I thought we were promised the debt would be wiped out by now?

Only by the voices in your head.  No one has EVER promised the federal debt will be wiped out.

[jimmyjazz 45,963]

8 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Only by the voices in your head.  No one has EVER promised the federal debt will be wiped out.

LOL are you high?  I direct you to campaign quotes by your dear leader.

[Incredulity 11,675]

8 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

LOL are you high?  I direct you to campaign quotes by your dear leader.

Once again I’ve never said anything positive about Trump.  Nothing that comes out of his mouth should be taken seriously.

but this isn’t the forum or thread for that even though you repeatedly try to cast everything in 6th as political 

Edited April 28 by Incredulity

[jimmyjazz 45,963]

Just now, Incredulity said:

Once again I’ve never said anything positive about Trump.  Nothing that comes out of his mouth should be taken seriously.

Oh, we shouldn't take him seriously.  Got it.

Despite your backtracking, you were wrong.  Good thing is you should be very used to it by now.

[Incredulity 11,675]

1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

Oh, we shouldn't take him seriously.  Got it.

Despite your backtracking, you were wrong.  Good thing is you should be very used to it by now.

Milk update?

[jimmyjazz 45,963]

2 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

but this isn’t the forum or thread for that even though you repeatedly try to cast everything in 6th as political 

It's because you bitches dance around politics all the time yet run crying to moderators when anyone left of Hitler shows up.

Fuck off.

Just now, Incredulity said:

Milk update?

Ask your wife.

[Incredulity 11,675]

1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

It's because you bitches dance around politics all the time yet run crying to moderators when anyone left of Hitler shows up

Lol. What the fuck are you babbling about?  
 

nonstop crying is all you do.  What a clown.

[UTPhil2006 3,807]

[Neonmoon 38,129]

1 hour ago, lucious leftfoot said:

 

debt. 
unsustainable. But how to tell when the party ends?

Ah 1980, the beginning of the debt monster. Fiscal responsibility at its best 

[B00M 6,416]