2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?

[Howlin wolf 133]

2 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

Jesus, you guys watch a lot of cuckoo goldbug shit 

 

[Incredulity 11675]

is there a sub-reddit "Oddly-placed economic advice"?  

[Mr. Drummond 2199]

23 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

is there a sub-reddit "Oddly-placed economic advice"?  

r/silverdegenclub  

[troph 24871]

They’re just asking questions.

[52-80 19183]

On 5/19/2024 at 6:20 AM, jimmyjazz said:

People have been howling about the imminent deficit spending induced collapse for a half century.  That's not to say it can't or won't happen, but the hysteria has been roughly the same the whole time.

There's definitely no reason to consider today's concern as anything but the typical howling of the last half century.

[Wally Fairway 5565]

Goddamn Beeks never said a word 

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/30/orange-juice-makers-turn-to-alternative-fruits-amid-record-high-prices.html

Quote

Orange juice prices are going through the roof 

 

• The benchmark frozen concentrated orange juice futures, traded on the Intercontinental Exchange in New York, closed at another record high of $4.77 per pound on Wednesday.
• Harry Campbell, a commodity market data analyst at research group Mintec, said that soaring orange juice prices have forced manufacturers and blenders to adapt to the situation by considering alternative fruit juices.

[Trey3216 15348]

On 5/24/2024 at 12:26 PM, Captainant said:

I'd love to see the breakdown between wages paid to people providing services vs revenues generated. I'd bet there's a similar divergence that tracks more with revenue than with wages - prices have gone up a shitload faster than wages

Well, there's a multiplier effect on wages in terms of prices of goods in the market...

[Trey3216 15348]

On 5/27/2024 at 5:05 PM, CHIEF said:

I misquoted the amount of US debt that China has sold off. They had three trillion worth and sold off all but $700 billion. They are using that $2.3 trillion to buy up all the precious metals they can.

CHIEF

So they likely sold debt at a lower price than they bought it.  There's also a lot of annual flow, because the US isn't settling trade differentials with China with cash.  It's always debt.  Therefore, if China wants to keep selling rubber dog shit to the good people of Wink, TX and and Toad Suck, AR they will have to purchase US debt at some point.  

[CHIEF 5094]

9 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

So they likely sold debt at a lower price than they bought it.  There's also a lot of annual flow, because the US isn't settling trade differentials with China with cash.  It's always debt.  Therefore, if China wants to keep selling rubber dog shit to the good people of Wink, TX and and Toad Suck, AR they will have to purchase US debt at some point.  

I think they are positioning themselves for when that all stops with an invasion of Taiwan. Get anything you can get right now before they are stuck with the debt because of sanctions.

CHIEF

[52-80 19183]

Why would capitalism do this!?!??

 

[UTPhil2006 3807]

On 4/26/2024 at 10:27 AM, BeardIP said:

the Fed is stuck in “monetary policy purgatory,” said KPMG’s chief economist, as it deliberates if and when it will cut rates. All options are on the table, including a dreaded rate hike.

Leaning towards a cut in Sept 

[Howlin wolf 133]

On 5/26/2024 at 5:51 PM, CHIEF said:

True. But there is a problem with the BRICS nations and ASEAN nations trying de-dollarization. Russia, Iran, and North Korea have been sanctioned off for a couple of years to decades. China and India have bought up enough gold and silver that COMEX and the LBM no longer control the precious metals market. The Bank of Shanghi has the majority of the World's gold, currently, and China is going to use it to back the BRICS currency, after they start a situation that gets them sanctioned by the Western nations.

We are dangerously close to loosing half of the nations, in the East, using US dollars as a reserve currency. The bond market is shit. Central banks are using printed dollars to buy up as much gold as they can, but foreign governments are reluctant to buy US debt. China liquidated from three billion dollars down to about 700 billion. I'm not sure who will eventually get left holding the bag, but someone is. The US has, by far, had the longest standing fiat currency, even though it has truly been a fiat currency since 1971. We have been printing money with nothing to back it for decades. The federal government just prints money to buy its own bonds. I have heard people say we will just inflate the debt away, others that say the trap has been laid. We may have some hyperinflation, followed by austerity  measures. No one will like it, but something has to be "reset".

CHIEF

The two biggest Brics players will never be all in together. 
 

 

[Wally Fairway 5565]

On 5/31/2024 at 10:18 AM, UTPhil2006 said:

Leaning towards a cut in Sept 

September 2024?

[fattyflattie 4639]

23 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

September 2024?

Very important that things are trending the correct way thru October. 

[Parliament 14261]

On 5/31/2024 at 9:18 AM, UTPhil2006 said:

Leaning towards a cut in Sept 

 

23 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

September 2024?

Wally whatever you're thinking.  Don't.

[fattyflattie 4639]

On 5/27/2024 at 12:43 PM, Fudge Nuggets said:

Nah, I don’t think he will ever be able to top his thought that poor people don’t deserve an education.

Typed without a hint of irony from the absolute least diverse and wealthiest Houston exurb to ever exist.   

[Fudge Nuggets 19206]

6 hours ago, fattyflattie said:

Typed without a hint of irony from the absolute least diverse and wealthiest Houston exurb to ever exist.   

Yes, I live in a terrible place when it comes to lack of diversity.  You won't get any argument from me on that point.  But it doesn't mean I buy into the hatred and lack of compassion of those like you.  Despite the wealth of this place, there are pockets of those that are doing what they can to survive.  I don't wish for their kids to be banned from a quality public education.

Edited June 3 by Fudge Nuggets

[Bozo_Casanova 26494]

On 5/31/2024 at 9:18 AM, UTPhil2006 said:

Leaning towards a cut in Sept 

When people were saying recession at the end of last year, I didn’t see it, and when they were saying rate cuts at the beginning of this year I didn’t see it.

I still don’t, for all the same reasons: this is an active and responsive market economy. Demand is strong, we aren’t overproducing goods, wages are up, housing inventories aren’t high, and most importantly the current rates are in a very historically normal range. 

We could MAYBE see a symbolic cut of 25bps this fall to signal flexibility and loosen up housing in particular, but 3.5% inflation is pretty benign at full employment but it’s still north of where they want it, and my guess is that until either inflation is in the 2’s or unemployment is in the 5’s with a higher LPR on top, we won’t see a material adjustment to rates. 

Edited June 3 by Bozo_Casanova

[Trey3216 15348]

1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

When people were saying recession at the end of last year, I didn’t see it, and when they were saying rate cuts at the beginning of this year I didn’t see it.

I still don’t, for all the same reasons: this is an active and responsive market economy. Demand is strong, we aren’t overproducing goods, wages are up, housing inventories aren’t high, and most importantly the current rates are in a very historically normal range. 

We could MAYBE see a symbolic cut of 25bps this fall to signal flexibility and loosen up housing in particular, but 3.5% inflation is pretty benign at full employment but it’s still north of where they want it, and my guess is that until either inflation is in the 2’s or unemployment is in the 5’s with a higher LPR on top, we won’t see a material adjustment to rates. 

Agree with you on a lot of this statement, but I do think there are some signs that there is overproducing of goods (namely durables that are very capital intensive).   

[Bozo_Casanova 26494]

3 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Agree with you on a lot of this statement, but I do think there are some signs that there is overproducing of goods (namely durables that are very capital intensive).

No doubt, but in the antediluvian era before free liquidity covered the land, we called that the business cycle

[52-80 19183]

15 hours ago, fattyflattie said:

Typed without a hint of irony from the absolute least diverse and wealthiest Houston exurb to ever exist.   

“Wont someone ELSE think of the children?!?!?”

[Wally Fairway 5565]

19 hours ago, Parliament said:

 

Wally whatever you're thinking.  Don't.

👍

[LCHorn 2621]

9 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

When people were saying recession at the end of last year, I didn’t see it, and when they were saying rate cuts at the beginning of this year I didn’t see it.

I still don’t, for all the same reasons: this is an active and responsive market economy. Demand is strong, we aren’t overproducing goods, wages are up, housing inventories aren’t high, and most importantly the current rates are in a very historically normal range. 

We could MAYBE see a symbolic cut of 25bps this fall to signal flexibility and loosen up housing in particular, but 3.5% inflation is pretty benign at full employment but it’s still north of where they want it, and my guess is that until either inflation is in the 2’s or unemployment is in the 5’s with a higher LPR on top, we won’t see a material adjustment to rates. 

Personally I think the Larry Summers “inflation might be due to high rates” drumbeat will grow as we get closer to the end of the year.  
 

Also, purely anecdotal but between me in mortgage lending and wife in tech, we know ALOT of people laid off in the last 12-24 months, many of whom are having a terrible time finding something comparable.  I’m getting really skeptical about using the unemployment rate as a predictive measure.  

[jimmyjazz 45979]

7 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

Also, purely anecdotal but between me in mortgage lending and wife in tech, we know ALOT of people laid off in the last 12-24 months, many of whom are having a terrible time finding something comparable.  I’m getting really skeptical about using the unemployment rate as a predictive measure.  

I don't know your age, but assuming you're old enough to have some well-paid higher-ups in your circle, that anecdote may not be so related to current economics as you think.  I helped found a company in the early 90s, rode the wave for 23 years, went thru a buyout and the moment I saw the new parent company's VP Engineering's resume I knew I was toast.  Virtually identical to mine, except in Europe.  I got canned a couple of months later.  Finding a new position in my field (where I was a recognized leader) was impossible.  Eventually I leveraged some old contacts and landed my dream gig that is now really taking off some 8+ years later, but searching for a new gig when you have some gray hair can be a real bitch.

[LCHorn 2621]

1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

I don't know your age, but assuming you're old enough to have some well-paid higher-ups in your circle, that anecdote may not be so related to current economics as you think.  I helped found a company in the early 90s, rode the wave for 23 years, went thru a buyout and the moment I saw the new parent company's VP Engineering's resume I knew I was toast.  Virtually identical to mine, except in Europe.  I got canned a couple of months later.  Finding a new position in my field (where I was a recognized leader) was impossible.  Eventually I leveraged some old contacts and landed my dream gig that is now really taking off some 8+ years later, but searching for a new gig when you have some gray hair can be a real bitch.

I’m not entirely sure I’m following but I think you’re referring to ageism.  That might be a part of it but we’re seeing the same thing across lots of differently aged peer groups.  

Mortgage lending historically is a good place for an older person to still be useful but I think this particular down cycle has been hard on them.  Tech, particularly because there’s just been so many more layoffs there, probably contributes more to my perception of labor weakness.

Again, all this is anecdotal, but I hear a lot of folks taking state jobs and they are happy to be employed but it’s a pay cut and not in their field of expertise.  

[jimmyjazz 45979]

3 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

I’m not entirely sure I’m following but I think you’re referring to ageism.

I guess that's what it's called.  There is a perception out there that someone ~ 50 YO is no longer able to deliver the energy required for a particular job.  It's a little different for the C-Suite guys, they have board allies all over the place, but in my case I made a (perhaps poorly calculated) effort to stay well within the tech team realm, and in that world, age becomes an issue.  I (of course) have no idea about real estate and lending.  It's all worked out for me personally, but there was a moment . . .

[Bozo_Casanova 26494]

1 hour ago, LCHorn said:

Personally I think the Larry Summers “inflation might be due to high rates” drumbeat will grow as we get closer to the end of the year.  
 

Also, purely anecdotal but between me in mortgage lending and wife in tech, we know ALOT of people laid off in the last 12-24 months, many of whom are having a terrible time finding something comparable.  I’m getting really skeptical about using the unemployment rate as a predictive measure.  

 

80’s: busting unions/LBOs etc

90’s: offshoring high skill non college jobs

2000-2010’s: automating routine professional work (ERP/CRM/etc)

2020’s-2030’s: automating or offshoring professional decisions (eg underwriting and approval) and basic creative work (contract drafting and editing) with AI etc. 

see a trend? 

all of those trends were enabled by low cost investment capital (cheap debt) and major wealth creators for a small number of people. All of them drafted or forced a large number of people into the service sector at lower wages. Since richer people spend less as a percentage of GDP growth, the net was lower inflation despite GDP expansion AND an acceleration of asset prices for things like housing. 
 

It’s all well and good for Summers to talk about the rates, but at some point the Tax code has to get a look.

Edited June 3 by Bozo_Casanova

[Bozo_Casanova 26494]

1 minute ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

 

Narbeque

 

Edited June 3 by Bozo_Casanova

[LCHorn 2621]

12 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

It’s all well and good for Summers to talk about the rates, but at some point the Tax code has to get a look.

I don’t want to put the cart before the horse but I think that’s something post election that will suddenly become the crisis de jure.
 

Not to go full Cloak Room, but I think the historical party of labor should be hammering this on the campaign to sever some of the populist energy on the right and it more naturally plays to their base.  Maybe they are and I’ve just not been paying attention.  

[Dbeasy 15071]

On 5/30/2024 at 5:15 AM, 52-80 said:

There's definitely no reason to consider today's concern as anything but the typical howling of the last half century.

People who just brush away the debt issue are living in a fantasy world. 

Yes people have been talking about the debt forever, and yes a certain party only is concerned about it when they aren’t in the White House. 

But that doesn’t change the fact that all credible financial leaders have been warning over and over that we are on an unsustainable path and the later the country tries to fix it, the worse the human suffering will be. And the numbers now, as you’ve shown above, are starting to reach the critical zone. 

[Bozo_Casanova 26494]

11 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

Not to go full Cloak Room, but I think the historical party of labor should be hammering this on the campaign to sever some of the populist energy on the right and it more naturally plays to their base.

That party is gone

[jimmyjazz 45979]

2 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

People who just brush away the debt issue are living in a fantasy world. 

Yes people have been talking about the debt forever, and yes a certain party only is concerned about it when they aren’t in the White House. 

But that doesn’t change the fact that all credible financial leaders have been warning over and over that we are on an unsustainable path and the later the country tries to fix it, the worse the human suffering will be. And the numbers now, as you’ve shown above, are starting to reach the critical zone. 

Or, and bear with me here, one might conclude that these "credible financial leaders" have no clue what's happening when they sound the same alarm decade after decade.

[UTPhil2006 3807]

ADP jobs lower than expected 

[Incredulity 11675]

32 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

ADP jobs lower than expected 

well, to be catastrophically cynical:  that means government will report a blow-out to the high side.

ADP and Gov have been diametrically opposed for a couple years now.

[Trey3216 15348]

On 6/5/2024 at 9:46 AM, Incredulity said:

well, to be catastrophically cynical:  that means government will report a blow-out to the high side.

ADP and Gov have been diametrically opposed for a couple years now.

Ding Ding Ding! 

[UTPhil2006 3807]

On 6/5/2024 at 9:46 AM, Incredulity said:

well, to be catastrophically cynical:  that means government will report a blow-out to the high side.

ADP and Gov have been diametrically opposed for a couple years now.

Hashtag nailed it. And not in a good way 

[Incredulity 11675]

What a freaking clownshow.

[jimmyjazz 45979]

Is there a methodology difference at play that would explain this all-too-common divergence?  It's nuts.

[Incredulity 11675]

5 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Is there a methodology difference at play that would explain this all-too-common divergence?  It's nuts.

You want

 

or

or

[StassneyHorn 6617]

ADP will always be off because they don’t count government work, farming, and base the numbers off their amount of captured business and try to extrapolate that out. 

[Storm the Field 5295]

Betting on BLS numbers based on ADP is as unreliable as assuming each Wednesday's EIA oil inventories will match the API estimates that come out on Tuesdays.

They're looking at 2 totally different data sets with different methodologies.

Edited June 7 by Storm the Field

[StassneyHorn 6617]

Unsure if government contractors are captured in the data or classified as government work rather than industry.

Between the CHIPS Act and Infrastructure bill I wouldn’t be surprised to see headlines claim massive government employment that’s really construction contracts or alternative energy projects, but have them portrayed as bean counters

[UTPhil2006 3807]

CPI here in a couple minutes. Fed announcement later 

[washparkhorn 9939]

Immaculate disinflation narrative takes hold. Dollar down as hikes become highly unlikely. Weakening labor market signaling slowing. Headline 0.0% M/M. Core 0.2% M/M. 

[Redneck Mutha 8006]

[Indomitable 80]

 

 

 

[Incredulity 11675]

I was told jobsgiving?  Hazmchconfuz

[StassneyHorn 6617]

And it may not? The fuck does he know? He masturbates to PCE

[StassneyHorn 6617]

The way these old suits cant wrap their heads around the gig economy in the US, and that nobody is unemployed unless they want to be, will hit them the same day they tip their DoorDash.

[Incredulity 11675]

1 hour ago, StassneyHorn said:

and that nobody is unemployed unless they want to be

Interesting, was told no wai can make ends meet so must shoot heroin in tarp city under overpass.