2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?

[Captainant 26902]

8 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Interesting, was told no wai can make ends meet so must shoot heroin in tarp city under overpass.

You really gotta stop reading pronghorns Twitter feed man

[StassneyHorn 6429]

1 hour ago, Incredulity said:

Interesting, was told no wai can make ends meet so must shoot heroin in tarp city under overpass.

Where? It’s better to be poor in a city than poor in the rurals

[troph 23995]

55 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Where? It’s better to be poor in a city than poor in the rurals

[Storm the Field 5254]

PPI came in extra soft, which is sure to piss off the people that hate inflation but also hate seeing it go down.

 

Edited June 13 by Storm the Field

[bernorange 8338]

1 hour ago, Storm the Field said:

PPI came in extra soft ...

There's a pill for that.

[washparkhorn 9898]

Argentina showing the world (again) how to fuck around and find out when combatting inflation. Austerity kills the patient. GDP plummets and unemployment spikes. 

“Argentina’s gross domestic product shrank by 5.1% compared to the same period last year, while unemployment climbed  to 7.7% in the first quarter of 2024, according to reports by the National Institute for Statistics and Census (INDEC).

https://t.co/aiFTGTW8br

Edited June 28 by washparkhorn

[Storm the Field 5254]

PCE 0.0% for May, now at 2.6% YOY, lowest since May '21. Core PCE up only 0.1%, also 2.6% YOY, lowest since March '21.

Edited June 28 by Storm the Field

[TxTower 648]

Odds of a Sept cut sure to go up.

[Gatorubet 29538]

On 6/12/2024 at 9:47 PM, StassneyHorn said:

Where? It’s better to be poor in a city than poor in the rurals

What do you want from your robbery victim - the Rolex and wallet from the guy going to the symphony - or the pouch of Redman and the pocket knife? 

[StassneyHorn 6429]

What side are all you fast food slobs taking in the value menu wars?

McD, Wendy’s, BK, Taco Bell, and now Sonic all have rolled out new menus and deals after getting their ass blasted by customers.

Wont lie I was walking past McDonalds and saw the 5 and 6 dollar value menu and it got me inside. No Sonics in my area but they got $1.99 quarter pounder I think.

 

Edited July 7 by StassneyHorn

[Deej 76156]

I don't know how the fast food places in my neighborhood stay in business when the taco trailers offer 6 al pastor tacos for $7.99.

[LCHorn 2529]

21 hours ago, Deej said:

I don't know how the fast food places in my neighborhood stay in business when the taco trailers offer 6 al pastor tacos for $7.99.

Haha, I tried Cuantos Tacos Saturday and it was $17 for 6 misc tacos (two were pastor).  Clearly I’m paying hipster prices.  

[Deej 76156]

8 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

Haha, I tried Cuantos Tacos Saturday and it was $17 for 6 misc tacos (two were pastor).  Clearly I’m paying hipster prices.  

Where I live, there is at least one trailer on every corner. Actually, anywhere you can fit a trailer, there's a trailer. Competition is tough. 

[Texas Jeff 1913]

On 6/3/2024 at 6:18 PM, jimmyjazz said:

I guess that's what it's called.  There is a perception out there that someone ~ 50 YO is no longer able to deliver the energy required for a particular job.  It's a little different for the C-Suite guys, they have board allies all over the place, but in my case I made a (perhaps poorly calculated) effort to stay well within the tech team realm, and in that world, age becomes an issue.  I (of course) have no idea about real estate and lending.  It's all worked out for me personally, but there was a moment . . .

This is off topic, but I am an old in tech...  I started in the early 90's and 50 year olds were getting early retired by the truckload, but to a nice pension with retiree medical.

Olds in tech have a new advantage that young techies lack ... they are willing to work face to face and speak to others using their voice rather than text messages.  They pre-date the smartphone era.  Young people could counter this by getting together and talking, but I'm not sure they are willing to go that far.

Many young techies are giving up their "energetic" advantage by trying to work alone rather than learning to lead groups.  I see a lot of folks working on their own problems but lacking the skills to put the pieces together or lead others.

If you are old in tech, build a team of people that are willing to work as a team and you'll have something substantial.  They will eventually rebel and push you out because you are old, but at least you can enjoy the ride.

Edited July 9 by Texas Jeff

[Captainant 26902]

3 minutes ago, Texas Jeff said:

Many young techies are giving up their "energetic" advantage by trying to work alone rather than learning to lead groups.  I see a lot of folks working on their own problems but lacking the skills to put the pieces together or lead others.

As someone working in an extremely large organization, have you ever tried to build something without a mandate from leadership? Good fuckin luck trying to build a team, the second any of their managers get wind of it they'll either try to reclaim their people's time, or steal the project for themselves, or decide for you what your 20% time project should be for. 

What you describe is good if you want to go into people management and never ever build ever again. The current consultant-brain crop of management makes it a really shitty bargain to spend extra time and effort on something that is not specifically directed by upper management. And even when you do follow their directives and build something that adds value to the business, it always fails to get adoption because the consultant brain fucks always just buy some shitty SaaS product for an outrageously high price because they had a fun dinner with a sales person

[gurt 736]

I'll never understand why there is a preference of 20 somethings over 50 somethings in tech.  I guess they think if you aren't using the latest BS language you're somehow not valuable? Or that a 55 year old can't possibly learn something new despite being in an ever changing industry for 3 decades?  All the most valuable people in my org are 50+, and no, we aren't using Fortran or COBOL.

[jimmyjazz 45162]

5 minutes ago, gurt said:

I'll never understand why there is a preference of 20 somethings over 50 somethings in tech.  I guess they think if you aren't using the latest BS language you're somehow not valuable? Or that a 55 year old can't possibly learn something new despite being in an ever changing industry for 3 decades?  All the most valuable people in my org are 50+, and no, we aren't using Fortran or COBOL.

In my case, I was too expensive.  I'm not in what most would call "tech" these days, I'm a mechanical engineer with a long track record of innovation in electromechanical systems.  The irony is that there aren't all that many grads coming out of school -- even at the PhD level -- who do what I do, but my paycheck remains a hurdle.  I've always made it work and I'll be of retirement age soon, so I have no worries, but the fact is older employees tend to get paid, and companies don't really like to pay, unless they have their shit together and understand true value.  Bean counters rarely fit that mold.

[TwiceHorn 30834]

Management/finance people historically colossally undervalue tech, R&D, and technical employees.  Engineers are often seen as fungible and commodities.  Experience counts some, but 10 years seems to be as good as 25.

[Neonmoon 38126]

3 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

In my case, I was too expensive.  I'm not in what most would call "tech" these days, I'm a mechanical engineer with a long track record of innovation in electromechanical systems.  The irony is that there aren't all that many grads coming out of school -- even at the PhD level -- who do what I do, but my paycheck remains a hurdle.  I've always made it work and I'll be of retirement age soon, so I have no worries, but the fact is older employees tend to get paid, and companies don't really like to pay, unless they have their shit together and understand true value.  Bean counters rarely fit that mold.

 

1 hour ago, TwiceHorn said:

Management/finance people historically colossally undervalue tech, R&D, and technical employees.  Engineers are often seen as fungible and commodities.  Experience counts some, but 10 years seems to be as good as 25.

This isn't a new phenomenon, nor is it restrained to tech, R&D, and technical employees. 

It's simple. Older employees are more expensive and can be replaced by younger employees. (Stop: I'm fully aware the young employee doesn't know shit compared to the old employee). The company doesn't give a fuck. They're willing to exchange the decline in knowledge for cheaper labor. Again, this isn't new or constrained to any career. It happens every year and will continue to happen. 

One of my relatives is an HR manager for a Fortune 500 company. A couple years ago during a decline in the industry, they fired all the expensive people (typically older) and said they would hire new grads in a year or two. 

[StassneyHorn 6429]

My short time in tech tells me there’s an insane amount of people who are Product Managers that have no business being one, and older engineers should replace them. But I guess good luck convincing them to change

[TwiceHorn 30834]

7 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

 

This isn't a new phenomenon, nor is it restrained to tech, R&D, and technical employees. 

It's simple. Older employees are more expensive and can be replaced by younger employees. (Stop: I'm fully aware the young employee doesn't know shit compared to the old employee). The company doesn't give a fuck. They're willing to exchange the decline in knowledge for cheaper labor. Again, this isn't new or constrained to any career. It happens every year and will continue to happen. 

One of my relatives is an HR manager for a Fortune 500 company. A couple years ago during a decline in the industry, they fired all the expensive people (typically older) and said they would hire new grads in a year or two. 

That is no doubt true and one reason we have ADEA. But I think the problem is particularly acute in larger corporations that are at least partially technology driven and employ a lot of engineers.  In many of those companies, engineers are almost regarded as an entirely different class of employees, for better and worse.

[B00M 6024]

18 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

One of my relatives is an HR manager for a Fortune 500 company. 

I stopped reading here to say your relative is fucking useless and I can’t wait until AI has them submitting applications to Wendy’s

Edited July 10 by B00M
Furk

[52-80 18982]

On 7/7/2024 at 8:16 PM, StassneyHorn said:

What side are all you fast food slobs taking in the value menu wars?

McD, Wendy’s, BK, Taco Bell, and now Sonic all have rolled out new menus and deals after getting their ass blasted by customers.

Wow thats crazy i thought these corporations were gouging monotonically because of endless greedflation pricing power. 

[jimmyjazz 45162]

You seriously don't think that's evidence of excess profit taking?  Bold take.

[fattyflattie 4633]

6 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

You seriously don't think that's evidence of excess profit taking?  Bold take.

Excess?  What is an appropriate amount of profit for them, comrade? 

[jimmyjazz 45162]

Clearly less than they were trying to gouge the average American for.  Fuck corporate greed in a pandemic.  

Not a surprising post from you, though, fatty.  You are nothing if not predictable.

I do find it hilarious that all these Ivy League whiz kids overshot the mark and compromised their own bottom line.  Well done, assholes.

Edited July 11 by jimmyjazz

[Mo Horn 8696]

Prices fell in June for the first time since the start of the pandemic

https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/11/economy/us-cpi-consumer-inflation-june

[Shaggy3.0 1694]

On 7/9/2024 at 9:31 AM, Texas Jeff said:

This is off topic, but I am an old in tech...  I started in the early 90's and 50 year olds were getting early retired by the truckload, but to a nice pension with retiree medical.

Olds in tech have a new advantage that young techies lack ... they are willing to work face to face and speak to others using their voice rather than text messages.  They pre-date the smartphone era.  Young people could counter this by getting together and talking, but I'm not sure they are willing to go that far.

Many young techies are giving up their "energetic" advantage by trying to work alone rather than learning to lead groups.  I see a lot of folks working on their own problems but lacking the skills to put the pieces together or lead others.

If you are old in tech, build a team of people that are willing to work as a team and you'll have something substantial.  They will eventually rebel and push you out because you are old, but at least you can enjoy the ride.

this is why i surly.

 

100% spot on.

 

[Shaggy3.0 1694]

On 7/9/2024 at 9:39 AM, Captainant said:

What you describe is good if you want to go into people management and never ever build ever again. The current consultant-brain crop of management makes it a really shitty bargain to spend extra time and effort on something that is not specifically directed by upper management. And even when you do follow their directives and build something that adds value to the business, it always fails to get adoption because the consultant brain fucks always just buy some shitty SaaS product for an outrageously high price because they had a fun dinner with a sales person

bolded for emphasis.

SaaS, low-code/no-code, AI code generation tools instill non-technical dweebs with a God Complex.   They hallucinate unrealistic malarkey during pointless meetings with no outcomes.

 

 

[Shaggy3.0 1694]

On 7/9/2024 at 8:54 PM, StassneyHorn said:

My short time in tech tells me there’s an insane amount of people who are Product Managers that have no business being one, and older engineers should replace them. But I guess good luck convincing them to change

agile will continue to obliterate the industry.  pms have a way of re-inventing themselves in large orgs.

 

[jimmyjazz 45162]

Some of the worst project managers my former company hired were formerly bad engineers.  It's a nonsense position for the most part that encourages failure upward.

[Armybrat 40527]

1 hour ago, Shaggy3.0 said:

bolded for emphasis.

SaaS, low-code/no-code, AI code generation tools instill non-technical dweebs with a God Complex.   They hallucinate unrealistic malarkey during pointless meetings with no outcomes.

 

 

Sounds like a middle school faculty meeting or most secondary workshops.

[tbone_ 13977]

They hallucinate unrealistic malarkey during pointless meetings with no outcomes.
 
 

This may be the most accurate description I’ve ever read.

[StassneyHorn 6429]

5 hours ago, Mo Horn said:

Prices fell in June for the first time since the start of the pandemic

https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/11/economy/us-cpi-consumer-inflation-june

I’d guess it’s safe to expect PCE to be under 2.5 in a week or two, which is Jerome’s favorite measure.

[52-80 18982]

On 7/10/2024 at 7:15 PM, jimmyjazz said:

You seriously don't think that's evidence of excess profit taking?  Bold take.

Wait a minute bold guy, why arent they taking more then? Is this corporate generosity?

[52-80 18982]

On 7/11/2024 at 2:05 AM, jimmyjazz said:

I do find it hilarious that all these Ivy League whiz kids overshot the mark and compromised their own bottom line.  Well done, assholes.

Ah, okay, so now the consequence of their “gouging” is theyre actually eroding their profit. 

Is their greed a net good thing for your McDonalds habit, guy?

[jimmyjazz 45162]

14 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

Ah, okay, so now the consequence of their “gouging” is theyre actually eroding their profit. 

Is their greed a net good thing for your McDonalds habit, guy?

McDonald's?  You don't pay attention very well at all.

Regarding profit, surely even a macro genius like you would have to admit that maximizing net profit could actually take a little finesse as opposed to putting the pedal to the metal and shouting "wheeeee".

[Captainant 26902]

34 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

Wait a minute bold guy, why arent they taking more then? Is this corporate generosity?

They did while they could, and now they're losing their customer base and causing long term damage. It's been a pretty consistent critique of the consultant brain business to sell out future stability for impermanent growth this quarter to hit your bonus numbers before you jump ship. It harms things long term but generates a big fat short term boon today at the cost of future opportunities 

Granted, you and yours tend to plug your ears and call people communist as soon as you start to disagree so I can understand why you don't remember this discussion 

[52-80 18982]

1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

Regarding profit, surely even a macro genius like you would have to admit that maximizing net profit could actually take a little finesse as opposed to putting the pedal to the metal and shouting "wheeeee".

What does it say about you that you think genius is required to understand that prices are a result of the natural inclination for all parties to act in their best interest?

If its this finesse that you claim the Ivy League whiz kids lack, how were they able to supposedly gouge for all these years?

Are you even able to see your own contradiction…or the physical reality of 10 competing fast food restaurants within every square mile in your city?

[jimmyjazz 45162]

It's almost as if you think economics and pricing theory are hard sciences.  LMAO.  

[fattyflattie 4633]

On 7/12/2024 at 8:36 AM, Captainant said:

They did while they could, and now they're losing their customer base and causing long term damage.

Long term damage?   Define long term. Which of these businesses do you believe will fail in the next 15 years?   We’re a few more gaffes away from a sudden rate drop. Do you think these prices will continue to dwindle when money is free again?

[52-80 18982]

On 7/12/2024 at 3:57 PM, jimmyjazz said:

It's almost as if you think economics and pricing theory are hard sciences.  LMAO.  

Then why do you have such trouble understanding it?

We appoint you emperor of earth.  You are the global moral arbiter and its sole legislature.  How much profit are fast food companies permitted to earn?  What is the law you would write to regulate against its "gouging" (probably involves defining objectively what gouging is).  Go.  We're listening.

[52-80 18982]

On 7/13/2024 at 11:44 PM, fattyflattie said:

Long term damage?   Define long term. Which of these businesses do you believe will fail in the next 15 years?   We’re a few more gaffes away from a sudden rate drop. Do you think these prices will continue to dwindle when money is free again?

It's funny hearing the crickets because we all know these people have no substantive answers.

Their perspective is a shallow, emotive, moralizing one, where the extent of their thinking doesn't go past identifying something they *feel* is "bad".  That's all there is to it. That's why they never get anything done.  Which is why their group is sleeping in tents on the lawn of the business district, protesting the other group that's inside the building doing actual work.

[Captainant 26902]

1 hour ago, 52-80 said:

Then why do you have such trouble understanding it?

We appoint you emperor of earth.  You are the global moral arbiter and its sole legislature.  How much profit are fast food companies permitted to earn?  What is the law you would write to regulate against its "gouging" (probably involves defining objectively what gouging is).  Go.  We're listening.

Well using centerpoint as an example... They took in $6.5B in profit last year, but spent evidently nothing on infrastructure hardening or disaster prep. But they raised our rates nonetheless and goosed their profits to all time highs

A state sanctioned monopoly gouging customers and then leaving them in the dark, while raking in beaucoup bucks is a decent starting point of example

Edited July 16 by Captainant

[TwiceHorn 30834]

So, the evidence seems to be that businesses used the anomaly of Covid supply chain problems, which may or may not have actually increased their prices, as an excuse to raise prices across the board, contributing to inflation.  But inflation was also helped along nicely by excess money in the system and a resistance by consumers to change their spending behavior, other than bitching about it a lot.

Now that apparently some of their volume is beginning to suffer, some are making price cuts.  I suppose that's the self-correcting theoretical nature of the free markets.

I don't think price controls are the answer to this.  But I'm not sure how we solve the problem of predatory or opportunistic price increases.

Edited July 16 by TwiceHorn

[Bozo_Casanova 25822]

38 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

So, the evidence seems to be that businesses used the anomaly of Covid supply chain problems, which may or may not have actually increased their prices, as an excuse to raise prices across the board, contributing to inflation.  But inflation was also helped along nicely by excess money in the system and a resistance by consumers to change their spending behavior, other than bitching about it a lot.

Now that apparently some of their volume is beginning to suffer, some are making price cuts.  I suppose that's the self-correcting theoretical nature of the free markets.

I don't think price controls are the answer to this.  But I'm not sure how we solve the problem of predatory or opportunistic price increases.

What I’m feeling when I read this must be what you feel when lay persons talk about the legal system. 
;-)

[Bozo_Casanova 25822]

1 hour ago, Captainant said:

A state sanctioned monopoly gouging customers and then leaving them in the dark, while raking in beaucoup bucks is a decent starting point of example

I don’t follow this point. What does a state sanctioned private monopoly have to do with market pricing or capitalism?

[Captainant 26902]

Just now, Bozo_Casanova said:

I don’t follow this point. What does a state sanctioned private monopoly have to do with market pricing or capitalism?

Because they're still part of the overall energy market through resellers wether I like it or not. The state converted a public utility into a private asset then sanctioned the monopoly and justified it with the lie of it being moderated by free market forces. Straight outta post soviet Russia, with the same outcomes for shareholders of goosed profits and shittier customer experience that doesn't matter because of monopoly power

[fattyflattie 4633]

2 hours ago, Captainant said:

Well using centerpoint as an example... They took in $6.5B in profit last year, but spent evidently nothing on infrastructure hardening or disaster prep. But they raised our rates nonetheless and goosed their profits to all time highs

A state sanctioned monopoly gouging customers and then leaving them in the dark, while raking in beaucoup bucks is a decent starting point of example

And I heard they give out unheard of dividends.  Link to the no spend on cap/opex? 

[jimmyjazz 45162]

I'm not fond of the fast food example being used for this most recent argument, because I detest fast food and I don't find it a "need", and certainly not healthy in general.  My only point is that by overshooting the price hike which would lead to maximum net corporate profit, they not only failed themselves, they deprived (ahem) some of their market of delicious ficken nuggets.  And that, my friends, is borderline criminal.