2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?

[Hefeweizen 5310]

Oh yeah fucking auto insurance for kids is one that enrages me.  I mean, these are all first world problems, but fucking hell.

[Hamttx 419]

Man, I haven’t had the kids on my auto in so long I forgot about that one! That has got to be big bucks. If it’s like my insurance you have to carry insurance on everyone in the household that is of driving age on every car you insure. Fuck me that would bite..

[Incredulity 11655]

12 hours ago, Hamttx said:

Child rearing is expensive business. 

obligatory

 

 

[fuggled 576]

On 8/16/2024 at 5:59 PM, UT_OB1 said:

Yeah I’m hopeful.  I’ve got no problem trickling down some breaks to first home buyers. I think the proposal to increase home starts is probably/hopefully the bigger deal. 

I also don't see anyone talking about the proposal to take away tax incentives for corporate investors buying up swaths of single family homes.  I've thought for a while that this needs to be looked at as one contributing factor in rising home prices.  Curious if anyone's seen much analysis on what's being proposed.

https://qz.com/harris-campaign-housing-rental-costs-real-estate-1851624062

Edited August 19 by fuggled

[52-80 19147]

5 hours ago, fuggled said:

I also don't see anyone talking about the proposal to take away tax incentives for corporate investors buying up swaths of single family homes.  I've thought for a while that this needs to be looked at as one contributing factor in rising home prices.  Curious if anyone's seen much analysis on what's being proposed.

https://qz.com/harris-campaign-housing-rental-costs-real-estate-1851624062

Quote

The Democratic presidential nominee is targeting investors that buy up and mark up homes in bulk, a growing trend that’s making the housing and rental market more expensive for Americans, the Harris campaign said.

If you’re in the market to buy or rent, does it make a difference if the owner/landlord is a corp or an individual?

And how do these corp just “mark up homes in bulk” if the price don’t take. Are these levered companies going to let the houses sit unoccupied while bleeding cashflow?  The houses go back on the sales market, or increases the rent supply relative to sales supply  

The pool of property and the pool of occupants hasnt changed.  Whats going to most affect housing affordability is….building more housing. 

[jimmyjazz 45893]

21 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Shit I am on the verge of running a fleet vehicle situation with teenagers on the policy. Fuck me.   

The old dude across the street keeps trying to get me to join his group-uber-whatever fleet thing he's trying to launch.  The first thing I thought was "holy jeez what would that do to my current insurance rates?"  Yeah, no thanks.

[Captainant 27638]

2 hours ago, 52-80 said:

If you’re in the market to buy or rent, does it make a difference if the owner/landlord is a corp or an individual?

If they're using real page to coordinate and collude on raising rents, then it's still a corporate set rate.

2 hours ago, 52-80 said:

And how do these corp just “mark up homes in bulk” if the price don’t take. Are these levered companies going to let the houses sit unoccupied while bleeding cashflow?  The houses go back on the sales market, or increases the rent supply relative to sales supply  

This would be true if we weren't in the middle of a significant housing shortage and failure to recover our building rate after 2008. And there was a real run of corporate buyers back when money was cheap that are now sitting on mountain of inventory that they're seeking rents on

2 hours ago, 52-80 said:

The pool of property and the pool of occupants hasnt changed.  Whats going to most affect housing affordability is….building more housing. 

Yes, AND we shouldn't be allowing single family homes to build corporate wealth instead of single family wealth. 

[Enchubben 5510]

On 8/18/2024 at 9:01 PM, Hamttx said:

I’m a retired guy who lives on a fixed income. Arguing about the politics really doesn’t help me. I can control my expenses on items that are want not need, but food and fuel is difficult. 
I struggle to understand how people are buying a couple of $75,000 vehicles, a home, raising children, and still have money for estate planning? Either they have well paying jobs, or they are in some serious debt. Especially since I spend a lot of my time looking for value, as I’m sure many of you are as well. To be honest I’m worried about my future. 

I see what you see as well. I make what I could consider very good money and I struggle at times to do any of the small extras that would have been very normal 10-20 years ago (have newish cars, extended vacations etc). I have done a great job at long term savings, but realistically need some sort of break or windfall to make any progress in short term emergency savings or outlasting cash for major expense.

3-4 years ago I felt pretty positive about finances directionally, but these last couple years have been a real beating. Food/gas/clothing etc has all doubled for what we buy and wage increases aren’t even close to matching. 

I think the reality is that there are a ton of people that are doing a combination of the following: taking on a ton of debt, not saving for the future/retirement whatsoever, and also not saving for their kids education assuming it will be free.  I think they’re in for a rude awakening on at least the first two items. 

Edited August 20 by Enchubben

[jimmyjazz 45893]

13 minutes ago, Enchubben said:

3-4 years ago I felt pretty positive about finances directionally, but these last couple years have been a real beating. Food/gas/clothing etc has all doubled for what we buy and wage increases aren’t even close to matching. 

You're not paying attention.  2 years ago, the national average for gasoline was $4.77/gal.  It's now $3.48.  Got any more fairy tales you want to tell?

[Enchubben 5510]

31 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

You're not paying attention.  2 years ago, the national average for gasoline was $4.77/gal.  It's now $3.48.  Got any more fairy tales you want to tell?

Enchubben: “everyday goods have gotten really expensive in the last 3-4 years and people are struggling”

JimmyJazz: “you’re lying, look at gas prices 2 years ago.”

Great work detective. 

———————

But again, I’m not talking solely gasoline at the pump. It’s the small everyday household and grocery items like paper towels, stuff for kids lunches etc. what used to be a $150 weekly grocery run is now $250. As far as I can tell, the only thing I pay close to the same as I did back then is parking, and that’s because demand has dropped with remote work becoming more acceptable.

[jimmyjazz 45893]

You said "couple" which means "two".  It's not my fault you can't express yourself with whatever clarity you think you are achieving. 

Note that you are now saying $150 -> $250 yet you previously claimed prices have doubled.  I'll leave it you to suss out the flaw in your arithmetic.

Pro tip:  don't exaggerate to make a point, it actually diminishes whatever minor point you were making in the first place.

[ChickenSandwich 9829]

In 2021, the average price of retail gasoline in the United States started the year at $2.25 per gallon and ended the year at $3.28 per gallon, which was $1.03 higher than the beginning of the year.

 

 

Nationally, the average cost of full coverage car insurance rose to $2,543 in 2024, an increase of 26 percent over last year.

Edited August 20 by ChickenSandwich

[Enchubben 5510]

7 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

You said "couple" which means "two".  It's not my fault you can't express yourself with whatever clarity you think you are achieving. 

Note that you are now saying $150 -> $250 yet you previously claimed prices have doubled.  I'll leave it you to suss out the flaw in your arithmetic.

Pro tip:  don't exaggerate to make a point, it actually diminishes whatever minor point you were making in the first place.

Oh ok let me fix it for you, grocery items haven’t doubled, you’re right. In 3 years, they’ve increased 50%+. Now we should all feel comfortable there isn’t an issue with inflation. 

 

[Hefeweizen 5310]

Telling someone they’re wrong about their costs seems like a losing proposition.  I can tell you that professionally I’ve seen costs escalate in an unprecedented way in construction and land costs in Texas.  The prices for asphalt, road base, concrete, and even pipe in competitive bids is over 50 percent higher than pre pandemic.  Whatever the reason, I’ve seen my fees go from 10 to 12 percent of a project cost to between 6 and 9.  And I’ve increased fees substantially.  
 

Raw land in BFE is over 60k an acre (saw a quote for Oklahoma, not a metro area, for example on a 50 plus acre parcel).  There is so much foreign money pouring in to real estate that it’s mind boggling.  A lot from India, China, Dubai, and other places.  It’s going to continue to push prices up for a long time.  This inflationary cycle is nowhere near being over for housing.

[Incredulity 11655]

1 hour ago, Enchubben said:

Oh ok let me fix it for you, grocery items haven’t doubled, you’re right. In 3 years, they’ve increased 50%+. Now we should all feel comfortable there isn’t an issue with inflation. 

 

double couponing and packing your own lunch cracks the inflation code.  Try to keep up.

[jimmyjazz 45893]

1 hour ago, Enchubben said:

Oh ok let me fix it for you, grocery items haven’t doubled, you’re right. In 3 years, they’ve increased 50%+. Now we should all feel comfortable there isn’t an issue with inflation. 

Actually 18.4%, but what's a gross distortion of the truth between friends?

 

[ChickenSandwich 9829]

Anecdotally, I don’t think I can find a family in America that can say their grocery bill has only gone up 18% from 2020-2024. 
 

From 2022 and it has of course gotten worse not better but still applies. 
 

“

In 2022, my grocery bill would be $21.30 more expensive if I bought all of the exact same things at the exact same store. So while the average salary went up 3.4% in 2021 and 2.8% in 2022, this grocery bill has gone up 27.66% over the past two years.”

https://www.buzzfeed.com/audreyworboys/receipt-comparison-2020-vs-2022

Dakota Neifert, the TikToker in question, had been going through his Walmart grocery history. He came across a receipt of $126 for 45 items from 2 years back, saying, “a whole month of groceries just for me, basically.” He saw the reorder button and decided to check how much it would all cost now. But, to his surprise, the price had tripled to $414. 
 

https://www.boredpanda.com/receipt-shows-what-groceries-cost-today/

Edited August 20 by ChickenSandwich

[jimmyjazz 45893]

3 minutes ago, ChickenSandwich said:

Anecdotally, I don’t think I can find a family in America that can say their grocery bill has only gone up 18% from 2020-2024. 

Take it up with the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

[Incredulity 11655]

I bought close out milk for ONLY 20% more than 2019, your argument is invalid/JJ

[jimmyjazz 45893]

27 minutes ago, Margin call said:

The one that’s about to revise down jobs number by 600k-1million?

Government numbers can be a little wonky. 

Ah, you'll fit right in with SEC football fans.  BUT BUT BUT THAT DOESN'T COUNT.

Prove the data wrong without leaning on perception or put a sock in it.

[52-80 19147]

The upside to all of this is jimmyjazz starting to learn how to find data (which he and comrades first dismissed as numerical gish gallop). 

Once he learns basic logic and how to interpret them, he might even…turn “fascist”. 

Theres hope yet. 

[Enchubben 5510]

I don't need to look at some federal number that is engineered to portray a desired result. (look when i take out food, utilities, gasoline, household goods and clothing the CPI is barely above normal!!!)

I can look at my previous grocery orders in the HEB app and compare to new ones.  ranges from 20% up to north of 50% increase for many items. Bananas on the other hand are inflation resistant it appears and are holding steady. Poor banana farmers probably didn't get the top secret price gouging memo. 

[jimmyjazz 45893]

3 hours ago, 52-80 said:

The upside to all of this is jimmyjazz starting to learn how to find data (which he and comrades first dismissed as numerical gish gallop). 

Bitch, I have been data driven my entire career, and I have been beyond successful.  Stay in your lane.

By the way, I have never dismissed data, and I fucking dare you to find evidence to the contrary.

[jimmyjazz 45893]

6 minutes ago, Enchubben said:

I don't need to look at some federal number that is engineered to portray a desired result. (look when i take out food, utilities, gasoline, household goods and clothing the CPI is barely above normal!!!)

I can look at my previous grocery orders in the HEB app and compare to new ones.  ranges from 20% up to north of 50% increase for many items. Bananas on the other hand are inflation resistant it appears and are holding steady. Poor banana farmers probably didn't get the top secret price gouging memo. 

Like I said, perfect for the SEC.  You use the results that fit your narrative and dismiss those that conflict.  LMAO

[Dendox 102]

Not my lane.  I have generally followed you JJ and appreciate many of your takes.   Your perspective often makes me ponder in ways that are beneficial.  Frequently I agree with your overall theme, sometimes I do not.  You don't give a shit what I think, I understand.

I do not understand your position here.  

Are you spending more on your daily activities, daily needs than you used to?  Are your increases (if any) consistent with BLS data?

I am spending more.  I am not living a lifestyle that is materially different than I used to.  I have had new expenses (new driver, needs car, needs insurance, needs gas).  Excluding new expenses, my costs to live have increased considerably.  When I look at my monthly HEB budget for the family I am up 35-40% since 2020 and I now no longer drink $100 worth of alcohol a week (down to about $40 a month).  I eat far less beef than I used to (fajitas are now rare, as is steak).  

Call it inflation? Maybe.  Call it price gouging? Not sure how considering HEB has almost no margins on grocery items.  Call it "more expensive than it used to be" - absolutely.  At least from my chair.  

 

[jimmyjazz 45893]

14 minutes ago, Dendox said:

I do not understand your position here.  

Are you spending more on your daily activities, daily needs than you used to?

Yes.

Quote

  Are your increases (if any) consistent with BLS data?

Yes.

 

Quote

Call it inflation? Maybe.

I would call it inflation overall.

[Skipper 6128]

20 hours ago, Enchubben said:

 

I think the reality is that there are a ton of people that are doing a combination of the following: taking on a ton of debt, not saving for the future/retirement whatsoever, and also not saving for their kids education assuming it will be free.  I think they’re in for a rude awakening on at least the first two items. 

Agree with this 100%.  From what I witness on a micro basis with acquaintances/family spending well above their means + on a macro basis with data showing no real slowdown in discretionary spending in the face of inflation, it just doesn't add up at all without the combination noted above.   I was just pricing some potential holiday travel and pricing is insane with limited availability where I was looking.   But why not keep raising prices if people keep paying for it?  I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop but that has probably been for 18 months now.  There is going to be a reckoning at some point.

[Enchubben 5510]

6 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Agree with this 100%.  From what I witness on a micro basis with acquaintances/family spending well above their means + on a macro basis with data showing no real slowdown in discretionary spending in the face of inflation, it just doesn't add up at all without the combination noted above.   I was just pricing some potential holiday travel and pricing is insane with limited availability where I was looking.   But why not keep raising prices if people keep paying for it?  I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop but that has probably been for 18 months now.  There is going to be a reckoning at some point.

I heard on the TV earlier today that in the last 4 years we’ve seen the highest amount of US personal savings recorded in history, and also the highest amount of personal debt.  Wild to see those two in such a short period but I believe it. People are spending like crazy, and also not putting away anything.

Basic economics and personal finance needs to be mandatory starting in elementary school, but even then people just generally seem to be reckless and expect to be bailed out by someone somewhere. 

[Dbeasy 15042]

The arguments over inflation are maddening for me. Both parties have been massive stimulators for inflation. Go back and look at deficits under Trump and Republicans. They are terrible. And while Democrats have used taxes to often run lower deficits, they’ve still been too high. But @Enchubban can’t see it, and the left Surly Cabal ignores the factions of their party that want to overspend and overtax. Just implement the recommendations compiled by moderates bipartisan groups and the problem would at least be under control. The plans are there already. But nope. 

[Captainant 27638]

The reality is that one of the best ways to remove excess funds is through taxation. It's a sink on the total money in the system. 

Over the last couple decades we've spent more and more, which adds more money to the system, while reducing the total money being removed from the system. It's not just a matter of spending less - there must be some system to remove the money. There's an absurd level of idle cash that's been siphoned up and accumulating interest or demanding quarterly returns, while providing no macroeconic value but exerting inflationary pressure nonetheless

[Skipper 6128]

9 minutes ago, Captainant said:

The reality is that one of the best ways to remove excess funds is through taxation. It's a sink on the total money in the system. 

There's an absurd level of idle cash that's been siphoned up and accumulating interest or demanding quarterly returns, while providing no macroeconic value but exerting inflationary pressure nonetheless

This is a Cloak room topic so really should be discussed over there.  But I would call savers that siphon cash that accumulate interest or invest excess cash anticipating returns "financially responsible" in contrast to a massive chunk of current society.  And those in that category are almost certainly cutting fat checks to the govt.  I've got hot takes on 'more taxation' as a solution (to inflation or otherwise) but this would veer way too off topic into the other forum.

[statsman 5453]

When the administration puts trillions into the economy, economists warned of inflation. We had inflation. Wages didn’t keep up for the average worker. 
 
The Fed fought the inflation by raising interest rates dramatically. 
 
Is any of this really controversial?

[StassneyHorn 6574]

Did some of you think your 2 year olds were going to have the same appetite for life? Never grow? Your kids are getting older and require more. Larger appetites cause they’re growing, newer size clothes and shoes, having new interests and sports they want to pursue. That was always going to happen to you when you had kids.

One more disingenuous post about long term capital gains will give me an aneurysm. Capital gains rate of 20% hits only around the $500,000 threshold. It’s 15% from mid 40,000 to 500,000. Which is a less than if it was taxed as normal income. 

[StassneyHorn 6574]

16 hours ago, Incredulity said:

double couponing and packing your own lunch cracks the inflation code.  Try to keep up.

 

[Incredulity 11655]

5 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

 

Ham and cheese or tuna in the brown bag today, sport?

[Trey3216 15345]

On 8/18/2024 at 9:03 PM, Margin call said:

The Presidential front runner announced her first policy. It happened to target the concern of this thread. Would you prefer the names be left out? I suspect you’re a bit embarrassed about what was proposed.

 

Moving on. Goldman predicts large downward revision on jobs number for the last year.

 

 

And there were articles on a site not to be mentioned that rhymes with Hero Sledge several days ago about that.  Fun times!   

[Trey3216 15345]

23 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Take it up with the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

I'm sure they have the best intentions...

[StassneyHorn 6574]

2 hours ago, Incredulity said:

Ham and cheese or tuna in the brown bag today, sport?

You are going to get in a truck you don’t need, drive half an hour to the city that scares you to death at an office you don’t have to be at, clock out at lunch and pass three grocery stores on your way to eat 15 dollar fast food. And I’m still in bed, working from a cell phone, and will walk to a neighborhood grocery store and eat more food than you for a 1/3 of the cost. 

[UTPhil2006 3806]

2 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

You are going to get in a truck you don’t need, drive half an hour to the city that scares you to death at an office you don’t have to be at, clock out at lunch and pass three grocery stores on your way to eat 15 dollar fast food. And I’m still in bed, working from a cell phone, and will walk to a neighborhood grocery store and eat more food than you for a 1/3 of the cost. 

User name doesn’t check out 

[StassneyHorn 6574]

3 hours ago, Margin call said:

You write this as though that’s some great concession by the government. You know it isn't though, because that money has already been taxed before it was invested.

Not sure why the thresholds matter when discussing the impact of this tax hike anyway. It would be big negative to markets. 

And that money will work every day in the market for free until you take it out for a gain, and for some could still get taxed at 0%. The thresholds absolutely matter when discussing personal investments.

[Trey3216 15345]

1 minute ago, StassneyHorn said:

And that money will work every day in the market for free until you take it out for a gain, and for some could still get taxed at 0%. The thresholds absolutely matter when discussing personal investments.

And for the vast majority of people paying LT Cap gains rate, they are able to use that rate because they've already spent money paying for employees, paying for portions of employees' healthcare benefits, paying for equipment, paying for vehicles and insurance on them, paying for insurance on their business, paying for accountants to file their taxes, paying for utilities to keep the lights on at home and at the office, and for all that paying....they are benefited to a Cap gains distribution tax rate which is basically the equivalent to LT cap gains rate.  

I guess we should ask them to pay more so your fee fees don't get twirled.  

[Trey3216 15345]

Nonfarm payroll revised lower by 818,000 for the 12 month period through Mar 2024.  

 

[StassneyHorn 6574]

32 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

And for the vast majority of people paying LT Cap gains rate, they are able to use that rate because they've already spent money paying for employees, paying for portions of employees' healthcare benefits, paying for equipment, paying for vehicles and insurance on them, paying for insurance on their business, paying for accountants to file their taxes, paying for utilities to keep the lights on at home and at the office, and for all that paying....they are benefited to a Cap gains distribution tax rate which is basically the equivalent to LT cap gains rate.  

I guess we should ask them to pay more so your fee fees don't get twirled.  

Vast majority? Like I said, disingenuous.

[Trey3216 15345]

1 minute ago, StassneyHorn said:

Vast majority? Like I said, disingenuous.

The vast majority of businesses in the US are small businesses.  The vast majority of those are structured as pass through entities.  It ain't disingenuous for shit.  

[StassneyHorn 6574]

I literally used the word personal, as in individual, as in not a fucking word about business.

[Incredulity 11655]

17 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Nonfarm payroll revised lower by 818,000 for the 12 month period through Mar 2024.  

 

I was told Jobsgiving.  Surely this is some Sino-Russian Collusion/Disinformation plot.

[Trey3216 15345]

2 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

I literally used the word personal, as in individual, as in not a fucking word about business.

Well, when a 'person' is also 'the business', as in...they are the owner, it makes a fucking world of difference, because that's where a huge amount of LT cap gains tax comes from.  

[StassneyHorn 6574]

2 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

I was told Jobsgiving.  Surely this is some Sino-Russian Collusion/Disinformation plot.

It was Jobsgiving. Fed raised rates to do what it said needed to be done. Even with the reduction of 800k overall its still a healthy monthly number.

[Incredulity 11655]

Just now, StassneyHorn said:

It was Jobsgiving. Fed raised rates to do what it said needed to be done. Even with the reduction of 800k overall its still a healthy monthly number.

[StassneyHorn 6574]

You disagree?