2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?

[jimmyjazz 45211]

Are you seriously saying the fact that outlay as a % of GDP went down during the Biden administration is a problem?  WTF are you trying to say?  Please, educate me.

[Hefeweizen 5229]

Dude they were all Obama appointees.  Thanks, Obama.

[Dbeasy 14791]

1 hour ago, 52-80 said:

 

here's the govt spending by year.  trump's non-covid spending was flat vs GDP compared to obama.

the delta between 2020/2021 and 2019 is $2.2T -- the size of the CARES act approved 419-6 in the House and 96-0 in Senate. 

presiding in fed chair was first yellen, an obama apointee, and then powell who was also obama apointee, later reconfirmed by biden.

so if you wanna point out an anomaly, ask why is 2023 is high, and e2024 even higher?

 

 

Wow. Talk about squinting to make data match your preconceived beliefs. This post is incredible. No one, and I mean no one, is going to vote against a spending plan during Covid recommended by the administration, and the Republicans own the most over the top, outrageous spending plan in US history during Covid. A spending plan that was basically a massive cash giveaway.  

But then you top yourself by incorrectly looking at absolute spending instead of spending as a percentage of gdp. Your post is ridiculous. 

[Bozo_Casanova 25909]

On 9/27/2024 at 3:26 PM, G650 said:

Ok... Still not remotely answering what I'm asking. How are 7% rates turbo fucking anyone?

Shit’s broke yo

3 hours ago, 52-80 said:

 

here's the govt spending by year.  trump's non-covid spending was flat vs GDP compared to obama.

the delta between 2020/2021 and 2019 is $2.2T -- the size of the CARES act approved 419-6 in the House and 96-0 in Senate. 

presiding in fed chair was first yellen, an obama apointee, and then powell who was also obama apointee, later reconfirmed by biden.

so if you wanna point out an anomaly, ask why is 2023 is high, and e2024 even higher?

 

 

Give me a fucking break. Are you looking to Cloak Room an Econ thread? Step right up and let me guess your weight. 
Would you please describe what happens on your graph during the year 2019?

 

Edited September 29 by Bozo_Casanova

[52-80 19000]

4 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

Wow. Talk about squinting to make data match your preconceived beliefs. This post is incredible. No one, and I mean no one, is going to vote against a spending plan during Covid recommended by the administration, and the Republicans own the most over the top, outrageous spending plan in US history during Covid. A spending plan that was basically a massive cash giveaway.  

But then you top yourself by incorrectly looking at absolute spending instead of spending as a percentage of gdp. Your post is ridiculous. 

are you all drunk?

how do you claim republicans “own” a spending plan that received, literally, 99% consensus. by the way, i dont endorse the bill, feel free search to the thread for my criticizing the predictability of ppp getting scammed. 

how you do assume i incorrectly neglected gdp sizing when i intentionally put that in *my* graph and explicitly referred to both you fucking donk. 

[52-80 19000]

3 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Shit’s broke yo

Give me a fucking break. Are you looking to Cloak Room an Econ thread? Step right up and let me guess your weight. 
Would you please describe what happens on your graph during the year 2019?

 

Would you describe the question “why doesnt this political administration get blamed for inflation” as CR free econ?

I posted: here’s how 3 administrations spent; theres a gigantic spike in spending that all legislators affiliated with both admins agreed to. 

thats the entirety if the post. 

if you want to know what happened there, maybe you can find it in your CR? take your fucking break then report back. 
 

[Bozo_Casanova 25909]

5 hours ago, 52-80 said:

Would you describe the question “why doesnt this political administration get blamed for inflation” as CR free econ?

I posted: here’s how 3 administrations spent; theres a gigantic spike in spending that all legislators affiliated with both admins agreed to. 

thats the entirety if the post. 

if you want to know what happened there, maybe you can find it in your CR? take your fucking break then report back. 

Again would you describe what happens on your graph in 2019?

[UTPhil2006 3773]

10 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Shit’s broke yo

Give me a fucking break. Are you looking to Cloak Room an Econ thread? Step right up and let me guess your weight. 
Would you please describe what happens on your graph during the year 2019?

 

This thing got cloaked eons of pages ago 

[52-80 19000]

4 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Again would you describe what happens on your graph in 2019?

You fornicated with a pangolin?

[Parliament 14022]

Put them on ignore and don't quote or reply.  It's like they're never even there.

[Bozo_Casanova 25909]

2 hours ago, 52-80 said:

You fornicated with a pangolin?

Don’t care, had sex

[troph 24028]

On 9/29/2024 at 12:41 PM, Bozo_Casanova said:

Don’t care, had sex

With a penguin pigeon hybrid? I’m confused. 

[Parliament 14022]

I presume this dock strike is gonna add to inflation some?

[Hefeweizen 5229]

42 minutes ago, Parliament said:

I presume this dock strike is gonna add to inflation some?

Probably a safe bet😤

[Bozo_Casanova 25909]

3 hours ago, troph said:

With a penguin pigeon hybrid? I’m confused. 

I’m not a complicated man, I like simple pleasures. 

[Incredulity 11197]

2 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I like simple pleasures

 

[bernorange 8341]

3 hours ago, Parliament said:

I presume this dock strike is gonna add to inflation some?

From what Ive read, most companies directly affected have built up inventory to weather a short term disruption without too much pain.  A long term disruption will bring supply shocks.  This could lead to price inflation for limited goods, but could also lead to a slowdown in economic activity (velocity of money / sales of non-essential goods).  

[tbone_ 13991]

Ok smart guys, answer me this:

The fed cut 50bp and has announced two more cuts likely this year, so why isn’t the 10 year falling?

[babysdaddy 2708]

On 9/28/2024 at 8:08 AM, Dbeasy said:

A question for the diverse folks on this thread. It seems very obvious to me that the Covid brrrr machine/cash giveaway  initated by the Trump administration is heavily responsible for the inflation mess we’ve been dealing with. The Biden administration also did not initiate policies to deal with it more strongly. So given this, why aren’t economists and other experts placing blame on the Trump administration? Why aren’t they being fried for their inflationary policies? Trump supporters don’t acknowledge or realize this. 

NO CR, just answering your question with a different view.  Couple of guys that worked for Obama think it was the American Rescue Plan that supercharged inflation.  Party line vote that VP Harris was the tie breaking vote on.  To use your line,  Harris supporters do not acknowledge or realize this.  It is not straightforward and you won't be able to pin 'inflation' on one political party or their leaders.

https://larrysummers.com/2021/05/24/the-inflation-risk-is-real/

 

12 minutes ago, tbone_ said:

Ok smart guys, answer me this:

The fed cut 50bp and has announced two more cuts likely this year, so why isn’t the 10 year falling?

I've heard two pretty smart people mention that a possible concern is rate cuts preceding a recession will lead to more stimulus and increased bipartisan government spending.  Meaning investors require higher yield.  Flows typically move to treasuries in times like that, which drive down yields, but that may not be the safe move if inflation reignites.  You might actually have yields spike.

[UT_OB1 2197]

2 hours ago, bernorange said:

From what Ive read, most companies directly affected have built up inventory to weather a short term disruption without too much pain.  A long term disruption will bring supply shocks.  This could lead to price inflation for limited goods, but could also lead to a slowdown in economic activity (velocity of money / sales of non-essential goods).  

That may be fine for consumables or raw materials, but if you ordered a large piece of equipment required for a new unit 14 months ago and it wasn’t scheduled to leave Portugal October for your March start up... 🤦‍♂️

[jimmyjazz 45211]

57 minutes ago, tbone_ said:

Ok smart guys, answer me this:

The fed cut 50bp and has announced two more cuts likely this year, so why isn’t the 10 year falling?

The cut was already priced in?  Total guess.

[Wally Fairway 5494]

6 hours ago, bernorange said:

From what Ive read, most companies directly affected have built up inventory to weather a short term disruption without too much pain.  A long term disruption will bring supply shocks.  This could lead to price inflation for limited goods, but could also lead to a slowdown in economic activity (velocity of money / sales of non-essential goods).  

 

3 hours ago, UT_OB1 said:

That may be fine for consumables or raw materials, but if you ordered a large piece of equipment required for a new unit 14 months ago and it wasn’t scheduled to leave Portugal October for your March start up... 🤦‍♂️

being price in and having built up inventory will not stop companies from raising prices due to the uncertainty of being able to replace that inventory (see gas pricing in the event of a production/supply issue)

[Dbeasy 14791]

4 hours ago, babysdaddy said:

NO CR, just answering your question with a different view.  Couple of guys that worked for Obama think it was the American Rescue Plan that supercharged inflation.  Party line vote that VP Harris was the tie breaking vote on.  To use your line,  Harris supporters do not acknowledge or realize this.  It is not straightforward and you won't be able to pin 'inflation' on one political party or their leaders.

https://larrysummers.com/2021/05/24/the-inflation-risk-is-real/

 

I've heard two pretty smart people mention that a possible concern is rate cuts preceding a recession will lead to more stimulus and increased bipartisan government spending.  Meaning investors require higher yield.  Flows typically move to treasuries in times like that, which drive down yields, but that may not be the safe move if inflation reignites.  You might actually have yields spike.

Thanks. I didn’t intend for my post to sound CR. I mentioned that Biden did not do enough to get it under control. The American Rescue plan had to also contribute. Massive government spending has caused it, and both parties are at fault. I just find it frustrating that hardly anyone points out the over stimulus by the previous admin. 

[Dbeasy 14791]

5 hours ago, tbone_ said:

Ok smart guys, answer me this:

The fed cut 50bp and has announced two more cuts likely this year, so why isn’t the 10 year falling?

Because the yield curve has to uninvert, and short term rates (<1 yr)are still above 10 year rates. That, combined with a greater chance of inflation taking off again due to rate cuts has led the 10 year to waffle around. If the economy stays reasonably strong (2Q gdp was 3%), the Fed will NOT reach its projected terminal rate (well below 4%), and long term rates will potentially rise, not fall. 10 year rates will fall if the economy stumbles significantly. 

[Brisketexan 103656]

Thanks. I didn’t intend for my post to sound CR. I mentioned that Biden did not do enough to get it under control. The American Rescue plan had to also contribute. Massive government spending has caused it, and both parties are at fault. I just find it frustrating that hardly anyone points out the over stimulus by the previous admin. 

Here’s the thing I don’t get: most everyone seems intent on discussing inflation as an American problem. Here’s what this POTUS or Congress did to cause it, blah blah blah, look at me score political points.
And nobody looks out the window to see that inflation hit EVERY western economy on the exact same timeline. How did Biden, or Trump, or Mark Cuban, or whoever in the US, cause simultaneously high inflation in the UK, Germany, France, Lithuania, Spain, etc etc?
The recent bout of inflation was a GLOBAL phenomenon, which means that it had GLOBAL causes. We had a black swan event (COVID) that caused massive global economic ripples, which helped trigger significant inflation. Why is that so hard to grasp?

[StassneyHorn 6446]

“we’re sorry. We’re in this together”

nobody pushed back and said fuck off.

here’s my chart:

Edited October 2 by StassneyHorn

[52-80 19000]

9 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

The American Rescue plan had to also contribute. Massive government spending has caused it, and both parties are at fault. I just find it frustrating that hardly anyone points out the over stimulus by the previous admin. 

Which major stimuli programs and who voted for them?

 

8 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Here’s the thing I don’t get: most everyone seems intent on discussing inflation as an American problem. Here’s what this POTUS or Congress did to cause it, blah blah blah, look at me score political points.
And nobody looks out the window to see that inflation hit EVERY western economy on the exact same timeline. How did Biden, or Trump, or Mark Cuban, or whoever in the US, cause simultaneously high inflation in the UK, Germany, France, Lithuania, Spain, etc etc?
The recent bout of inflation was a GLOBAL phenomenon, which means that it had GLOBAL causes. We had a black swan event (COVID) that caused massive global economic ripples, which helped trigger significant inflation. Why is that so hard to grasp?

It's not, which is why it's strange for some to only talk about a specific cause like corporate greed.

Covidflation was a confluence of multiple global factors. But you can still recognize that certain parties and policies and actions have a big directional impact, even if the size of the impact can't be modeled precisely.

e.g. Russian energy being rerouted to India and China fucked up European energy prices pretty hard. On the global stage, the US has a pretty big lever that affects downstream costs to US consumers, whether it's through control of tariffs, liquidity, manufacturing, etc.

[B00M 6033]

23 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Here’s the thing I don’t get: most everyone seems intent on discussing inflation as an American problem. Here’s what this POTUS or Congress did to cause it, blah blah blah, look at me score political points.
And nobody looks out the window to see that inflation hit EVERY western economy on the exact same timeline. How did Biden, or Trump, or Mark Cuban, or whoever in the US, cause simultaneously high inflation in the UK, Germany, France, Lithuania, Spain, etc etc?
The recent bout of inflation was a GLOBAL phenomenon, which means that it had GLOBAL causes. We had a black swan event (COVID) that caused massive global economic ripples, which helped trigger significant inflation. Why is that so hard to grasp?

(Seriously both sides but) Aren’t most currencies linked/dependent on the USD, especially the Euro? To some extent, don’t we export inflation? Won’t monetary policy in the US impact the rest of the world, especially the western world? 

[babysdaddy 2708]

On 10/1/2024 at 10:01 PM, Brisketexan said:

Here’s the thing I don’t get: most everyone seems intent on discussing inflation as an American problem. Here’s what this POTUS or Congress did to cause it, blah blah blah, look at me score political points.
And nobody looks out the window to see that inflation hit EVERY western economy on the exact same timeline. How did Biden, or Trump, or Mark Cuban, or whoever in the US, cause simultaneously high inflation in the UK, Germany, France, Lithuania, Spain, etc etc?
The recent bout of inflation was a GLOBAL phenomenon, which means that it had GLOBAL causes. We had a black swan event (COVID) that caused massive global economic ripples, which helped trigger significant inflation. Why is that so hard to grasp?

I thought this was an interesting question so looked up fiscal response by Germany and the UK.  Guessing numbers will be similar to France, Lithuania, Spain, etc.

Germany

156 billion (4.7% of gpd) 3/20

130 billion (3.9% of gdp) 6/20

60 billion (1.7% of gdp) 3/21

 

UK

Spent 310-410 billion pounds. (15% ish of gdp)

 

US

5.1Trillion (3.3 in 2020 and 1.8 in 2021) 13% and 7%, respectively in those 2 years.

 

It was a combination of factors and believe that supply chain issues started the inflation issue and over stimulus by lots of governments exacerbated the problem.

[Brisketexan 103656]

2 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

It was a combination of factors

Agree.

2 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

and believe that supply chain issues started the inflation issue

Agree.  It was a cascading phenomenon.

3 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

and over stimulus by lots of governments exacerbated the problem.

Agree.  The fact that functionally every government chose to use that tool should tell us something.  The reality is often that you have to "pick your poison."  There were no great options in response to the black swan event and cascading effects of same.  EVERYTHING you could do, including inaction, would have negative consequences.  You could pick WHICH negative consequences you wanted, but not WHETHER there would be negative consequences.  You make what you think is the least bad decision.  When you layer on the fact that among the observing public, there is a bias against inaction ("why aren't they doing something to help?!?!?")....well, there's the reason that functionally every government with the ability to do so used the tool of stimulus.

If you want to criticize the use of stimulus in response to the unfolding, unprecedented economic circumstances, you FIRST need to model what the alternatives (like doing nothing) would have looked like, and whether there's a realistic chance that such alternatives would/could have been accepted by the public.  And then, you need to weigh those choices NOT in the benefit of hindsight, but based on information and expected outcomes that existed at the time the decisions had to be made.  I suspect that when you do so, that will reveal that the rational choice was the choice made by most every government that could do so.

[Bozo_Casanova 25909]

46 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

It was a combination of factors and believe that supply chain issues started the inflation issue and over stimulus by lots of governments exacerbated the problem.

Yes- and the insane irony is that the same poor targeting that caused the accelerating wealth inequality and asset price explosion of the last 20 years  in the US is both

1) the thing that protected the us economy most from the kind of inflation they had elsewhere, and

2) also prevents the majority of the American public from benefiting from the very rare combination of quick recovery and restrained inflation. 

Edited October 3 by Bozo_Casanova

[hornmpa96 2541]

1 hour ago, babysdaddy said:

 

It was a combination of factors and believe that supply chain issues started the inflation issue and over stimulus by lots of governments exacerbated the problem.

Another factor which likely exacerbated inflation was the Fed being late to the party on tightening monetary policy.

[BabaYaga 15184]

14 hours ago, B00M said:

(Seriously both sides but) Aren’t most currencies linked/dependent on the USD, especially the Euro? To some extent, don’t we export inflation? Won’t monetary policy in the US impact the rest of the world, especially the western world? 

100%

[jimmyjazz 45211]

So many jobs

[ChickenSandwich 9769]

This time they got it right!

[Hefeweizen 5229]

Inflation down, jobs up, year ending soon… looking forward to 2025 being the big housing recovery.  Looks like steak is back on the menu!

[tbone_ 13991]

And rates up across the board

[Incredulity 11197]

34 minutes ago, tbone_ said:

And rates up across the board

[UTPhil2006 3773]

4 hours ago, Hefeweizen said:

Inflation down, jobs up, year ending soon… looking forward to 2025 being the big housing recovery.  Looks like steak is back on the menu!

Better hope so 

[B00M 6033]

11 hours ago, ChickenSandwich said:

This time they got it right!

Last month got revised up! 

but fuckin’ Phil is now living behind the Wendy’s dumpster so existing sales need to turn the fuck around!

[StassneyHorn 6446]

McDonald’s has decided they are socialist or communist, idk what that means, and that they have the answer to how much money others should make off beef.

McDonald’s sues top meat packers for allegedly colluding to inflate the price of beef

https://apnews.com/article/mcdonalds-sues-meat-packers-beef-price-fixing-6ea9d046eb711fd2a93d03305fa07882

 

[Captainant 26927]

2 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

McDonald’s has decided they are socialist or communist, idk what that means, and that they have the answer to how much money others should make off beef.

 

McDonald’s sues top meat packers for allegedly colluding to inflate the price of beef

https://apnews.com/article/mcdonalds-sues-meat-packers-beef-price-fixing-6ea9d046eb711fd2a93d03305fa07882

 

Who could have foreseen that decades of market consolation could lead to cartel like behavior??

[Maestro della Moneta 17]

Oh

 

[StassneyHorn 6446]

Another brand new poster with posts in the crypto and inflation thread. Why can’t you quit us?

[Hefeweizen 5229]

Maybe this time he’ll be right?

[Storm the Field 5256]

Q3 GDP and Inflation numbers released:

 

[babysdaddy 2708]

https://www.wsj.com/economy/the-next-president-inherits-a-remarkable-economy-7be2d059?mod=hp_lead_pos6