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Posted (edited)

In my experience Walgreens generally has a 25% markup compared to HEB assuming we don’t care about brand

Oak Hill Milk- $4.59

HEB Milk - $3.67

AA Large Eggs 

Walgreen - $7.99

HEB - $5.68

Edited by ChickenSandwich
Posted

Dumb question amnesty requested:  so there's this huge (justifiable) uproar over the price of eggs.  "They" are telling us that it's because of bird flu.  OK.  So why hasn't the price of chicken risen a similar amount, at least in my experience?  Has bird flu hit the egg farms particularly hard?

Posted
3 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Dead hens get made into meat.

(I’m joking.  Hope that’s not true.)

Reminds me of a story my mom had from growing up. The city cousins would come out to the farm, and Uncle Norman had a Super 8 camera that he liked to film with. In the background of a days footage was cousin Ritchie chasing a chicken all day. The chicken eventually stroked out, and Grandma cooked it for the whole family. 

 

On additional sidenote, JBS is starting to back up cattle deliveries, so we will see if it's labor or bad margins doing it. 

Posted

In an ominous poultry related moment for me at work, my turkey raising client was instructing an employee to cut into the 6 dead birds they had while on the phone with me 

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Posted
1 hour ago, UTGrad98 said:

Wouldn't egg producers WANT a nice bird flu every 2 or 3 years? 

When a barn is infected, all the hens need to be euthanized, barns sterilized (think powerwashers and clorox and such) then new chicks hatched and raised a few months. All while all the fixed costs remain.  The rise in egg prices doesn't come close to covering all that.

 

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Posted

Well I'll take your bird flu, and raise you a potential pandemic like jump into the already reduced cattle population!

New bird flu variant found in Cows in Nevada

US herd is at 73 year low.  I could post a bunch of links about the fears of how a lack of good inter-agency communication could hinder stopping outbreaks from last year's scare in Texas.  I can't imagine the communication of agencies improved at the Fed level at this point, can you?  IF this new variant spreads even a little you could see some severe upwards price pressure on beef.  Which will encourage non-infected meat sources to edge their prices up as well. (if they think they can). Read about the small calf numbers in this link for greater clarity on the risk. https://www.fb.org/market-intel/u-s-cattle-inventory-smallest-in-73-years

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I will be fascinated to month over month inflation numbers at the end of Feb and March.  Markets will shit a brick if that number moves upward.  And you know that coffee, sugar, eggs, cocoa and lumber all markedly up in the last month.  Not that there is not some good news downward, but to me a lot more news that could really being inflation back as a focus, especially if we have to start culling from the smallest US cattle herd in our lifetimes...

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Posted

Of course if we run off enough labor, the smaller cattle herd won't do anything for cattle prices because you'll still have capacity constraints while beef prices take off. 

Posted
On 1/29/2025 at 10:28 AM, jimmyjazz said:

Dumb question amnesty requested:  so there's this huge (justifiable) uproar over the price of eggs.  "They" are telling us that it's because of bird flu.  OK.  So why hasn't the price of chicken risen a similar amount, at least in my experience?  Has bird flu hit the egg farms particularly hard?

Three reasons:

1) Laying hens and broilers (the chickens we eat) are two different populations and live in different conditions.

2) Broilers are younger and less susceptible to respiratory disease 

3) Related to both points above, broilers spend less time together and rotate through the system faster, which means they less time in contact with disease vectors.

 

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Posted
41 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

CPI. Inflation up. Animal spirits pricing in tariffs raising prices. No reason for Fed to lower Fed Rate. 

Yeah, I was saying Sunday to another investor that just constantly talking about tariffs can bring anticipatory price rises.  Either for additional profits sellers think are within reach. Or to ease prices up to cover future additional raw materials costs that would be impacted by the discussed trade. It was almost funny to see the political spin on CNBC by Rick Santoli and Joe Kerns dutifully saying it was silly to think any upwards creep could be anticipatory of stated Trump policies. And it was dishonest to do so.  When right before the number came out, Joe was debating was this a Biden number or a Trump number...   Then when it's bad... one of those options became an impossibility...

My regret is that instead of making my hedge in UVIX so large, I would have pulled the trigger on that March $560 Tesla put for $150 my finger hovered over. 

 

Posted (edited)

Inflation has monotonically increased for the last seven months.

The elements of the CPI that increased are not imported goods subject ot tariffs. The biggest was housing, which made up 30% of the CPI increase. The rest was health costs, food, used cars, and energy.

Spoiler

CPI Highlights:

  • The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in January, accounting for nearly 30 percent of the monthly all items increase. 

  • The energy index rose 1.1 percent over the month, as the gasoline index increased 1.8 percent.

  • The index for food also increased in January, rising 0.4 percent as the index for food at home rose 0.5 percent and the index for food away from home increased 0.2 percent.

  • The food at home index rose 0.5 percent over the month. The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs rose 1.9 percent over the month, as the index for eggs increased 15.2 percent. This was the largest increase in the eggs index since June 2015 and it accounted for about two thirds of the total monthly food at home increase

  • The food away from home index rose 0.2 percent in January. The index for limited service meals rose 0.3 percent over the month and the index for full service meals rose 0.1 percent

  • The index for nonalcoholic beverages increased 2.2 percent over the same period, while the index for other food at home rose 0.8 percent and the index for dairy and related products increased 1.2 percent

  • The energy index increased 1.1 percent in January. The gasoline index increased 1.8 percent over the month.

  • The index for natural gas rose 1.8 percent over the month while the index for electricity was unchanged in January

Core CPI Details:

  • Indexes that increased over the month include motor vehicle insurance, recreation, used cars and trucks, medical care, communication, and airline fares. The indexes for apparel, personal care, and household furnishings and operations were among the few major indexes that decreased in January.

  • The shelter index increased 0.4 percent over the month.

    • The index for owners’ equivalent rent rose 0.3 percent in January, as did the index for rent.

    • The lodging away from home index increased 1.4 percent in January.

  • The medical care index increased 0.2 percent over the month. The index for prescription drugs increased 2.5 percent in January and the index for hospital services rose 0.9 percent over the month.

    • The physicians’ services index increased 0.1 percent in January.

  • The motor vehicle insurance index rose 2.0 percent in January.

  • The index for recreation rose 1.0 percent over the month and the index for used cars and trucks increased 2.2 percent.

  • Other indexes that increased in January include communication, airline fares, and education.

  • In contrast, the index for apparel fell 1.4 percent in January.

  • The indexes for personal care and household furnishings and operations also declined over the month. The new vehicles index was unchanged in January.

 

Edited by Thetexashammer
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Posted

Been on long budget conf calls last few days with contractors and equity on two apartment construction deals we are about to close.

Anyone want to guess what domestic lumber suppliers are doing with lumber pricing?

Thanks a lot you dickhead orange cunt.

Posted
5 minutes ago, tbone_ said:

Been on long budget conf calls last few days with contractors and equity on two apartment construction deals we are about to close.

Anyone want to guess what domestic lumber suppliers are doing with lumber pricing?

Thanks a lot you dickhead orange cunt.

Nowai.

Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Thetexashammer said:

Inflation has monotonically increased for the last seven months.

By my count, four months.  (Bad screencap, that point I highlighted is Sep 2024.)

image.png.bf8a76c06fb7a258ebbfc55733b4069d.png

Edited by jimmyjazz
Posted

Well at least we count on fiscal conservatism and deficit reduction to put downward pressure on the bond market.  Maybe that will offset the proven inflationary results of tariffs? 

 

 

 

Now clean that coffee you just spit out off the table!

 

  • Haha 2
Posted

This quote inspires a lot of confidence...

Quote

White House economist Kevin Hassett on Thursday wouldn’t say whether President Donald Trump’s impending reciprocal tariffs would hit consumers’ wallets.

Asked whether the Trump administration can ensure that prices wouldn’t rise, Hassett, Trump’s director of the White House National Economic Council, said he is “confident” there will be no “price effect” related to new tariffs.

“Prices move up, prices move down. That’s the way the world works, right?” Hassett said during an MSNBC interview.

This guy sounds like he might have read a book once. OK, maybe not, but I bet he could pick a book out of a lineup. 

Posted
21 minutes ago, Blotto said:

This quote inspires a lot of confidence...

This guy sounds like he might have read a book once. OK, maybe not, but I bet he could pick a book out of a lineup. 

Tide goes in, tide goes out. You can't explain that.

  • Like 1
Posted

So let me get this straight -

Egg prices have gone up, not down

Inflation has gone up, not down

Gas prices have gone up, not down

We are going to cut millions of federal jobs and companies continue to have layoffs or outsource, so millions out of work

Mass deportations and tariffs are going to affect food prices, construction prices, etc.

 

Are we great again?

Posted
11 minutes ago, Js1 said:

So let me get this straight -

Egg prices have gone up, not down

Inflation has gone up, not down

Gas prices have gone up, not down

We are going to cut millions of federal jobs and companies continue to have layoffs or outsource, so millions out of work

Mass deportations and tariffs are going to affect food prices, construction prices, etc.

 

Are we great again?

To be fair, inflation has been going back up since the FED announced the first rate cut.  

Posted

Construction bids for heavy civil have been pretty stable for about 18 months since the crazy hikes in 2022.  Just been looking at pricing and it’s about to get interesting again.  Main difference is a lot of GCs seem to be short of work right now.  Not quite the backlog everyone had before.

Posted

We continue to run 8-10% lower on beef packing runs vs. the prior year last week. Seasonal demand weakness is offsetting on boxed beef for now, but we could see it get real stupid as spring demand picks up.  

Posted
On 1/29/2025 at 10:28 AM, jimmyjazz said:

Dumb question amnesty requested:  so there's this huge (justifiable) uproar over the price of eggs.  "They" are telling us that it's because of bird flu.  OK.  So why hasn't the price of chicken risen a similar amount, at least in my experience?  Has bird flu hit the egg farms particularly hard?

 

NPR had a story on this a few weeks ago. Their explanation, as best as I can recall, was basically: 

 

On 2/11/2025 at 7:24 AM, Bozo_Casanova said:

Three reasons:

1) Laying hens and broilers (the chickens we eat) are two different populations and live in different conditions.

2) Broilers are younger and less susceptible to respiratory disease 

3) Related to both points above, broilers spend less time together and rotate through the system faster, which means they less time in contact with disease vectors.

 

 

Also, since broilers are younger, they are replaced faster. 

 

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Posted
16 hours ago, Hefeweizen said:

Opening a bunch of bids Thursday that contractors are whining about steel tariffs on.  Let’s see if it’s real or not.  If real, we’re about to see things really escalate.

I would be curious to know the numbers and how they fell in line with your expectations.  I honestly do not know how you could bid something really large with steel as a contract component that might span over several years.  I assume most of the bids have differing types of cost escalation clauses?

 

Posted (edited)
On 2/13/2025 at 2:10 PM, Js1 said:

So let me get this straight -

Egg prices have gone up, not down

Inflation has gone up, not down

Gas prices have gone up, not down

We are going to cut millions of federal jobs and companies continue to have layoffs or outsource, so millions out of work

Mass deportations and tariffs are going to affect food prices, construction prices, etc.

 

Are we great again?

are you a wealthy white man?

 

 

,

Edited by yoladu

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