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Posted

Oof!

Quote

The U.S. economy is in a potentially precarious position, having become "unusually reliant on rich Americans," The Wall Street Journal reports. As working- and middle-class households struggle to keep up with inflation, spending by the top 10% of earners has soared to account for almost 50% of all spending and nearly one-third of gross domestic product. Experts worry that if stock or home values decline and the wealthy cut back, the economic impacts could be "significant."

https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/us-economy-strength-rich-spending-2c34a571

Posted
2 hours ago, Captainant said:

"If line no go up, mongo lose his shirt"

Yea it’s a dangerous place to be in. I think partly to blame is the lack of honesty about the “Heater” economy that was pumped by folks who were looking to spin the economy/inflation for Biden, when talking about jobs and labor market and job growth (not saying that was you).

When the majority of the growth (80%) is in garbage jobs like low pay service jobs at holiday inns and McDonald’s of the world and (20%) a handful of speculative and bubble companies, you get situations like yesterday where depending on how nvidia’s Q4 went, either the market will completely tank or will be okay. Thats a dangerous position to be in!

The lack of the white and blue collar jobs that the middle class historically depended upon is dangerous. They are endangered. And so the billionaires have outsized influence (and the digital labor revolution, if it comes, will be the death knell).

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Posted

Purely anecdotal but I have noticed that in Temple, Texas the Firehouse I go to has had markedly fewer people eating during the noon hour. In Austin we eat out a lot and I have noticed lighter pressure at the places we go to, of late.  But we also often walking into a place at 5-5:30, so it's not a 7 pm peak observation. I need to ask the bartenders/managers if my perception is accurate or a misperception.

Lumber is up 18%+ since the election for example.  

But if my perception of the slowdown in Lunch is correct, breakfast is getting decimated.  I never go to breakfast, but usually the first cutbacks are eating out.  If lunch starts to pull back, then there are a lot of retail short opportunities that will present themselves pretty quickly.  I will be fascinated with the next few rounds of inflation reporting.  Market is skittish, and if there was a one two punch of boost in unemployment and rising inflation?  

 

Posted
3 hours ago, horn4life said:

Purely anecdotal but I have noticed that in Temple, Texas the Firehouse I go to has had markedly fewer people eating during the noon hour. In Austin we eat out a lot and I have noticed lighter pressure at the places we go to, of late.  But we also often walking into a place at 5-5:30, so it's not a 7 pm peak observation. I need to ask the bartenders/managers if my perception is accurate or a misperception.

Lumber is up 18%+ since the election for example.  

But if my perception of the slowdown in Lunch is correct, breakfast is getting decimated.  I never go to breakfast, but usually the first cutbacks are eating out.  If lunch starts to pull back, then there are a lot of retail short opportunities that will present themselves pretty quickly.  I will be fascinated with the next few rounds of inflation reporting.  Market is skittish, and if there was a one two punch of boost in unemployment and rising inflation?  

 

Junk food.  When the poors can no longer afford Mountain Dew/Lightning we'll know for sure #itshappening.

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Posted
3 hours ago, horn4life said:

Purely anecdotal but I have noticed that in Temple, Texas the Firehouse I go to has had markedly fewer people eating during the noon hour. In Austin we eat out a lot and I have noticed lighter pressure at the places we go to, of late.  But we also often walking into a place at 5-5:30, so it's not a 7 pm peak observation. I need to ask the bartenders/managers if my perception is accurate or a misperception.

Lumber is up 18%+ since the election for example.  

But if my perception of the slowdown in Lunch is correct, breakfast is getting decimated.  I never go to breakfast, but usually the first cutbacks are eating out.  If lunch starts to pull back, then there are a lot of retail short opportunities that will present themselves pretty quickly.  I will be fascinated with the next few rounds of inflation reporting.  Market is skittish, and if there was a one two punch of boost in unemployment and rising inflation?  

 

Every restaurant owner I talk to is bleeding out right now on most metrics...Overall seats, PPG (even in inflationary environs), labor cost, insurance cost.  Been that way for a long while now. 

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Posted
13 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Every restaurant owner I talk to is bleeding out right now on most metrics...Overall seats, PPG (even in inflationary environs), labor cost, insurance cost.  Been that way for a long while now. 

We have too many restaurants right now, but that will take care of itself in pretty short order. 

Posted
3 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

We have too many restaurants right now, but that will take care of itself in pretty short order. 

That is also true...It's also always been true.  

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Posted

I went to Total Wine and more.  Seemed super slow.  So I asked the cashier, and she was unsure.  A manager overheard and piped up "yeah really slow."  But honestly this is probably not inflation related. As the price of what I am buying hasn't changed at all in any of the places I mentioned. 

Honestly my observations are probably not related to inflation, but consumer emotion.  

Posted
2 hours ago, horn4life said:

I went to Total Wine and more.  Seemed super slow.  So I asked the cashier, and she was unsure.  A manager overheard and piped up "yeah really slow."  But honestly this is probably not inflation related. As the price of what I am buying hasn't changed at all in any of the places I mentioned. 

Honestly my observations are probably not related to inflation, but consumer emotion.  

1740173797928?e=1743638400&v=beta&t=KfMuEvUlgN_HSYRTXRE9x_Yk-DcwgQOHT6MzxKB6280

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Posted

Eh, half of Gen Z isn't old enough to (legally) drink.  The other age cohorts are 3X-4X as large when you consider (legal) drinkers.  Plus, those kids these days and their drugs.

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