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Posted

Oof!

Quote

The U.S. economy is in a potentially precarious position, having become "unusually reliant on rich Americans," The Wall Street Journal reports. As working- and middle-class households struggle to keep up with inflation, spending by the top 10% of earners has soared to account for almost 50% of all spending and nearly one-third of gross domestic product. Experts worry that if stock or home values decline and the wealthy cut back, the economic impacts could be "significant."

https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/us-economy-strength-rich-spending-2c34a571

Posted
2 hours ago, Captainant said:

"If line no go up, mongo lose his shirt"

Yea it’s a dangerous place to be in. I think partly to blame is the lack of honesty about the “Heater” economy that was pumped by folks who were looking to spin the economy/inflation for Biden, when talking about jobs and labor market and job growth (not saying that was you).

When the majority of the growth (80%) is in garbage jobs like low pay service jobs at holiday inns and McDonald’s of the world and (20%) a handful of speculative and bubble companies, you get situations like yesterday where depending on how nvidia’s Q4 went, either the market will completely tank or will be okay. Thats a dangerous position to be in!

The lack of the white and blue collar jobs that the middle class historically depended upon is dangerous. They are endangered. And so the billionaires have outsized influence (and the digital labor revolution, if it comes, will be the death knell).

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Posted

Purely anecdotal but I have noticed that in Temple, Texas the Firehouse I go to has had markedly fewer people eating during the noon hour. In Austin we eat out a lot and I have noticed lighter pressure at the places we go to, of late.  But we also often walking into a place at 5-5:30, so it's not a 7 pm peak observation. I need to ask the bartenders/managers if my perception is accurate or a misperception.

Lumber is up 18%+ since the election for example.  

But if my perception of the slowdown in Lunch is correct, breakfast is getting decimated.  I never go to breakfast, but usually the first cutbacks are eating out.  If lunch starts to pull back, then there are a lot of retail short opportunities that will present themselves pretty quickly.  I will be fascinated with the next few rounds of inflation reporting.  Market is skittish, and if there was a one two punch of boost in unemployment and rising inflation?  

 

Posted
3 hours ago, horn4life said:

Purely anecdotal but I have noticed that in Temple, Texas the Firehouse I go to has had markedly fewer people eating during the noon hour. In Austin we eat out a lot and I have noticed lighter pressure at the places we go to, of late.  But we also often walking into a place at 5-5:30, so it's not a 7 pm peak observation. I need to ask the bartenders/managers if my perception is accurate or a misperception.

Lumber is up 18%+ since the election for example.  

But if my perception of the slowdown in Lunch is correct, breakfast is getting decimated.  I never go to breakfast, but usually the first cutbacks are eating out.  If lunch starts to pull back, then there are a lot of retail short opportunities that will present themselves pretty quickly.  I will be fascinated with the next few rounds of inflation reporting.  Market is skittish, and if there was a one two punch of boost in unemployment and rising inflation?  

 

Junk food.  When the poors can no longer afford Mountain Dew/Lightning we'll know for sure #itshappening.

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Posted
3 hours ago, horn4life said:

Purely anecdotal but I have noticed that in Temple, Texas the Firehouse I go to has had markedly fewer people eating during the noon hour. In Austin we eat out a lot and I have noticed lighter pressure at the places we go to, of late.  But we also often walking into a place at 5-5:30, so it's not a 7 pm peak observation. I need to ask the bartenders/managers if my perception is accurate or a misperception.

Lumber is up 18%+ since the election for example.  

But if my perception of the slowdown in Lunch is correct, breakfast is getting decimated.  I never go to breakfast, but usually the first cutbacks are eating out.  If lunch starts to pull back, then there are a lot of retail short opportunities that will present themselves pretty quickly.  I will be fascinated with the next few rounds of inflation reporting.  Market is skittish, and if there was a one two punch of boost in unemployment and rising inflation?  

 

Every restaurant owner I talk to is bleeding out right now on most metrics...Overall seats, PPG (even in inflationary environs), labor cost, insurance cost.  Been that way for a long while now. 

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Posted
13 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Every restaurant owner I talk to is bleeding out right now on most metrics...Overall seats, PPG (even in inflationary environs), labor cost, insurance cost.  Been that way for a long while now. 

We have too many restaurants right now, but that will take care of itself in pretty short order. 

Posted
3 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

We have too many restaurants right now, but that will take care of itself in pretty short order. 

That is also true...It's also always been true.  

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Posted

I went to Total Wine and more.  Seemed super slow.  So I asked the cashier, and she was unsure.  A manager overheard and piped up "yeah really slow."  But honestly this is probably not inflation related. As the price of what I am buying hasn't changed at all in any of the places I mentioned. 

Honestly my observations are probably not related to inflation, but consumer emotion.  

Posted
2 hours ago, horn4life said:

I went to Total Wine and more.  Seemed super slow.  So I asked the cashier, and she was unsure.  A manager overheard and piped up "yeah really slow."  But honestly this is probably not inflation related. As the price of what I am buying hasn't changed at all in any of the places I mentioned. 

Honestly my observations are probably not related to inflation, but consumer emotion.  

1740173797928?e=1743638400&v=beta&t=KfMuEvUlgN_HSYRTXRE9x_Yk-DcwgQOHT6MzxKB6280

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Posted

Eh, half of Gen Z isn't old enough to (legally) drink.  The other age cohorts are 3X-4X as large when you consider (legal) drinkers.  Plus, those kids these days and their drugs.

Posted
8 hours ago, Vegas64 said:

1740173797928?e=1743638400&v=beta&t=KfMuEvUlgN_HSYRTXRE9x_Yk-DcwgQOHT6MzxKB6280

I always like to point out to Gen Xers, do you know that weed vape pin you just took a hit off is a felony?  Gen Z kids mostly have no idea that that vape pen is the same as carrying a 5 pound sack of weed.  

But I am simply saying that folks are pulling back at lunch and dinner from my observations, and at the liquor store.  Gen z not drinking sure as shit isn't what made the store slow last night.  

Posted
17 hours ago, Parliament said:

Junk food.  When the poors can no longer afford Mountain Dew/Lightning we'll know for sure #itshappening.

Funny story, I saw a fuckin hard mountain dew in the beer aisle in HEB a few weeks ago

20250203_161237.thumb.jpg.a76513c2e511c0b6fa31b21228ff083d.jpg

Seems an inopportune product launch lol

Posted

About to run out, but new economic numbers show income up! ... but consumer pending down.  That's sort of a book end of actual data to my anecdotal observations.  As well as consumer sentiment polling.  A single data point, does not a trend make.  You would think if wages were climbing spending would also go up on your Eco 101 graph.

Posted
9 minutes ago, horn4life said:

About to run out, but new economic numbers show income up! ... but consumer pending down.  That's sort of a book end of actual data to my anecdotal observations.  As well as consumer sentiment polling.  A single data point, does not a trend make.  You would think if wages were climbing spending would also go up on your Eco 101 graph.

Many probably just got their home insurance renewal increase notice in the mail.  

Posted
12 hours ago, horn4life said:

I went to Total Wine and more.  Seemed super slow.  So I asked the cashier, and she was unsure.  A manager overheard and piped up "yeah really slow."  But honestly this is probably not inflation related. As the price of what I am buying hasn't changed at all in any of the places I mentioned. 

Honestly my observations are probably not related to inflation, but consumer emotion.  

A lot of it is consumer financial exhaustion 

Posted
1 minute ago, Trey3216 said:

A lot of it is consumer financial exhaustion 

It's almost like that unnecessary price gouging and record profit taking during late COVID does, in fact, have consequences. Markets are mad that line isn't going up like it used to during the pillaging, and wage earners are simply tapped out.

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Posted
1 hour ago, Captainant said:

It's almost like that unnecessary price gouging and record profit taking during late COVID

Oh man, you just had to lob the turd into the punchbowl, didn't you?

Posted
2 hours ago, horn4life said:

About to run out, but new economic numbers show income up! ... but consumer pending down.  That's sort of a book end of actual data to my anecdotal observations.  As well as consumer sentiment polling.  A single data point, does not a trend make.  You would think if wages were climbing spending would also go up on your Eco 101 graph.

In graphical form:

image.png.28a2aee410858c4a970d7354f37ac283.png

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Posted (edited)

https://x.com/GuyDealership/status/1895233603421761697

 

 

More Americans are falling behind on their car payments: The latest auto asset-back securities data shows that subprime 60+-day delinquencies hit 6.56% in December—the highest ever recorded. Even prime borrowers are slipping, though not nearly as much. And lenders are doing whatever they can to stop loans from going bad—namely—handing out extensions. Subprime extensions jumped to 3.81%—five times the prime rate. With DriveTime, Carvana, and Westlake leading the list for the highest year-over-year increases. Big picture: For borrowers—kicking payments down the road can add thousands in extra costs, and for lenders—it could create a wave of debt that’s unlikely to be paid. Read today’s top automotive stories, presented by

: https://carguymedia.com/41DoSmf

 
Edited by Trey3216
Posted
6 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Eh, half of Gen Z isn't old enough to (legally) drink.  The other age cohorts are 3X-4X as large when you consider (legal) drinkers.  Plus, those kids these days and their drugs.

True, but we've never seen as big a cultural acceptance and push for "non-alcoholic" then we have now. Beers, bars and even hard liqours. VC money pouring into the space (starting with Liquid Death you could argue) because there is a growing TAM and demonstrated traction of Gen Z not engaging in the alcohol culture that was the baseline before them.

Things can always change and they can easily revert to being just as big a consumer bloc as their predecessor generations (in the same way that as generations age they move from liberals to more conservatives)-- we will see. 

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