2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?

[fattyflattie 4636]

15 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Quoting all of fatty’s comments on “tax structure”.

But yet again, you have seem to left off your paycheck threadshitting and inheritance bullshit. Odd.  
 

I’ll dip our and enjoy your thoughts from the shadows. 

[Incredulity 11564]

[Fudge Nuggets 19152]

21 hours ago, fattyflattie said:

Only by idiots in the CR.  If not, I'd probably not have 2x the rep you do.

Now do rep / post count ratio.

[Snake Diggity 4614]

39 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

I’ll dip out and enjoy your thoughts from the shadows. 

Cool!  Thanks!

Edited May 16, 2023 by Snake Diggity

[Hefeweizen 5307]

[Mullet Free 40]

But you could print some money if your spouse would just agree to allow you to go further into debt. 

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

48 minutes ago, Mullet Free said:

if your spouse would just agree to allow you to go further into debt. 

She has no problem with that on her own.

[Captainant 27487]

57 minutes ago, Mullet Free said:

But you could print some money if your spouse would just agree to allow you to go further into debt. 

we could sure service a bunch of that debt and reduce the monetary supply if we taxed some of the ultra-high-end that saw the lion's share of growth and stimulus benefit. Two birds with one stone, eh? 

Edited May 17, 2023 by Captainant

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4968]

We could also service a lot of that debt if we got rid of the Boomers who got us into it.

[Snake Diggity 4614]

2 hours ago, Mullet Free said:

But you could print some money if your spouse would just agree to allow you to go further into debt. 

Imagine a household who makes ~$490,000/yr in income.  Their recurring bare necessities (mortgage, bills, car payments, health insurance, 401k, etc) are about $3,400/mo.  They spend another ~$1,400/mo. on “other stuff”.  They also have a CC payment they make interest-only payments on at $400/mo.  Their mortgage, car loans, student loans, CC balance, and all other debt add up to $3.2M.  The head of household is about 45 years old.  How bad is their financial situation?  Now factor in:

The household has ways of making extra money.  In fact, if they demand a raise from their employer, they know will get it, within reason.  They also know they play such a key role in their company that there is no way they can be fired unless the company goes out of business.

The bank where all their loans and Credit card are held is owned by friends who the head of household handpicked to start the bank.  If they ever need to refinance their debt or defer payments, they know the bank will work with them.

The society of the entire town, city, state, country, continent, planet, and universe is completely dependent upon this household not going bankrupt.

 

Do they have a debt problem?  Certainly.  Will there be some uncomfortable belt-tightening at some point?  Very likely. Are they fucked?  Not at all.

[Neonmoon 38127]

5 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Imagine a household who makes ~$490,000/yr in income.  Their recurring bare necessities (mortgage, bills, car payments, health insurance, 401k, etc) are about $3,400/mo.  They spend another ~$1,400/mo. on “other stuff”.  They also have a CC payment they make interest-only payments on at $400/mo.  Their mortgage, car loans, student loans, CC balance, and all other debt add up to $3.2M.  The head of household is about 45 years old.  How bad is their financial situation?  Now factor in:

The household has ways of making extra money.  In fact, if they demand a raise from their employer, they know will get it, within reason.  They also know they play such a key role in their company that there is no way they can be fired unless the company goes out of business.

The bank where all their loans and Credit card are held is owned by friends who the head of household handpicked to start the bank.  If they ever need to refinance their debt or defer payments, they know the bank will work with them.

The society of the entire town, city, state, country, continent, planet, and universe is completely dependent upon this household not going bankrupt.

 

Do they have a debt problem?  Certainly.  Will there be some uncomfortable belt-tightening at some point?  Very likely. Are they fucked?  Not at all.

Yeah, but that's if you want to look at the situation accurately. I'm interested in pushing a narrative. 

[Snake Diggity 4614]

22 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Imagine a household who makes ~$490,000/yr in income.  Their recurring bare necessities (mortgage, bills, car payments, health insurance, 401k, etc) are about $3,400/mo.  They spend another ~$1,400/mo. on “other stuff”.  They also have a CC payment they make interest-only payments on at $400/mo.  Their mortgage, car loans, student loans, CC balance, and all other debt add up to $3.2M.  The head of household is about 45 years old.  How bad is their financial situation?  Now factor in:

The household has ways of making extra money.  In fact, if they demand a raise from their employer, they know will get it, within reason.  They also know they play such a key role in their company that there is no way they can be fired unless the company goes out of business.

The bank where all their loans and Credit card are held is owned by friends who the head of household handpicked to start the bank.  If they ever need to refinance their debt or defer payments, they know the bank will work with them.

The society of the entire town, city, state, country, continent, planet, and universe is completely dependent upon this household not going bankrupt.

 

Do they have a debt problem?  Certainly.  Will there be some uncomfortable belt-tightening at some point?  Very likely. Are they fucked?  Not at all.

My math here is fucked.  Delete post, ban user.  The total debt to income numbers are right and the overarching point stands, but the monthly expenditure numbers are wrong.  I deserve ridicule and shame.

Edited May 17, 2023 by Snake Diggity
I’m a piece of shit dumbass who should kill himself

[jimmyjazz 45597]

I was trying to imagine a couple pulling in near $500K and only have $3.4K per month on mortgage, bills, insurance, etc.  Nice life if you can get it, I suppose.

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

Will there be some uncomfortable belt-tightening at some point?

As the great philosopher John Forgery said, "someday never comes".

[Snake Diggity 4614]

39 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

As the great philosopher John Forgery said, "someday never comes".

That’s actually something I think is an underdiscussed point when people are talking about national debt, especially when making the analogy to managing a household budget; regular people generally feel like they have to pay off all their debt before they die, and even if they don’t, I would imagine 90 year olds have a pretty hard time finding extended credit.  Assuming you have the leverage to manipulate maturity dates and interest rates, and you think you’ll live forever, do you really ever have to totally pay off all your debt?

[jimmyjazz 45597]

Just now, Snake Diggity said:

That’s actually something I think is an underdiscussed point when people are talking about national debt, especially when making the analogy to managing a household budget; regular people generally feel like they have to pay off all their debt before they die, and even if they don’t, I would imagine 90 year olds have a pretty hard time finding extended credit.  Assuming you have the leverage to manipulate maturity dates and interest rates, and you think you’ll live forever, do you really ever have to totally pay off all your debt?

My macro prof was adamant that debt was something the US could sustain indefinitely.  I was pretty bored by econ so I didn't really dig into it with him beyond that, I assume he had some "reasonable" boundaries on the concept, but he was pretty much a classic 80's hippie who was stoned half the time (U of Illinois PhD).

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

4 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

That’s actually something I think is an underdiscussed point when people are talking about national debt, especially when making the analogy to managing a household budget; regular people generally feel like they have to pay off all their debt before they die, and even if they don’t, I would imagine 90 year olds have a pretty hard time finding extended credit.  Assuming you have the leverage to manipulate maturity dates and interest rates, and you think you’ll live forever, do you really ever have to totally pay off all your debt?

I agree. We shouldn't look at debt as a bad thing if it's being invested back into "things" that give us return. The "return" on government debt should be "does it help the majority of the people lead better lives now and in the future". I'm just cynical that much of our debt is NOT going to things that help the majority of the citizenry, but is pork for reelection campaigns.

Every "business" has debt. But their is good debt (investments) and bad debt (interest and/or investments with negative returns). I fear we are creeping into the latter.

 

[Royalfan5 2348]

On a side note to earlier inflation stuff, besides eggs retracting their beginning of the year surge, you have pork packer margins turning negative and cattle margins close with pork the cheapest it has ever been relative to beef on a whole sale basis. It seems that right now packers are willing to eat the losses to hold market share. Cattle are still going to be tight for awhile but we probably have enough rain to stop herd liquidation for now and should be kicking off the rebuilding of numbers. Pigs and broilers are up numbers wise and should stay flat at worst for now. Veg oil is at the lowest levels we have seen in quite some time too. Nitrogen fertilizer looks to be about 40% of this years number going to the next crop year as well. 

[gmr548 16531]

On 5/16/2023 at 8:17 AM, Cheeseweasel said:

My apologies for contributing to that @Captainant and @jimmyjazz

I was way to Surly yesterday. My bad. I'll try to do better.

 

On 5/16/2023 at 9:09 AM, jimmyjazz said:

I didn't exactly help.  I'll keep myself in check  . . . for awhile.  lulz

[Bozo_Casanova 26328]

3 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

My macro prof was adamant that debt was something the US could sustain indefinitely. 

It can!*











 

Spoiler

*Until it can't

 

Edited May 17, 2023 by Bozo_Casanova

[Captainant 27487]

4 hours ago, Royalfan5 said:

On a side note to earlier inflation stuff, besides eggs retracting their beginning of the year surge, you have pork packer margins turning negative and cattle margins close with pork the cheapest it has ever been relative to beef on a whole sale basis. It seems that right now packers are willing to eat the losses to hold market share. Cattle are still going to be tight for awhile but we probably have enough rain to stop herd liquidation for now and should be kicking off the rebuilding of numbers. Pigs and broilers are up numbers wise and should stay flat at worst for now. Veg oil is at the lowest levels we have seen in quite some time too. Nitrogen fertilizer looks to be about 40% of this years number going to the next crop year as well. 

I'm sure those lower prices will trickle down annnnnnnyyyyyyy minute now....

[Mullet Free 40]

1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

It can!*











 

  Reveal hidden contents

*Until it can't

 

 

[Snake Diggity 4614]

25 minutes ago, Mullet Free said:

 

Those charts are from 2019 you idiot.  

[Royalfan5 2348]

1 hour ago, Captainant said:

I'm sure those lower prices will trickle down annnnnnnyyyyyyy minute now....

At least the packers getting their ass kicked is a change of pace 

[jimmyjazz 45597]

16 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Those charts are from 2019 you idiot.  

Beyond that, I'd like to see a chart showing the ratio of the two data sets.  It's nearly impossible to glean much information from a linear y-axis chart like that.

[Mullet Free 40]

1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

Those charts are from 2019 you idiot.  

Really? You missed the part where it says updated 04/09/2022? Bless your heart. Maybe ask your grandkids to help you post when things seem hard. 
 

1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

Beyond that, I'd like to see a chart showing the ratio of the two data sets.  It's nearly impossible to glean much information from a linear y-axis chart like that.

hmm. The ratio is evident from the chart. 
 

How much debt is required for each dollar in GDP growth? It’s increasing constantly. It’s totally sustainable, until it isn’t as Bozo said. 

[jimmyjazz 45597]

13 minutes ago, Mullet Free said:

hmm. The ratio is evident from the chart. 

It's not at all evident.  Do you understand how to chart data for clarity?

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

I don't think Lawrence Lepard is his real name.

[Hefeweizen 5307]

16 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

I don't think Lawrence Lepard is his real name.

Chester Cheetah did it first and better.

[Guest]

Gimme a 1-2% tax on income that goes directly to retiring debt until it is below 80% of GDP, along with guardrails on increasing spending too much. Pipe dream, but the ramp up in debt since the GFC is gross and irresponsible. Especially in boom times when it wasn't needed.

The way things are going, who knows when the next "black swan" event is going to happen and we need a cushion.

 

[jimmyjazz 45597]

3 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

The way things are going, who knows when the next "black swan" event is going to happen and we need a cushion.

Between the very real possibility of new viral pandemics and the hopefully less likely concern over Putin deploying nukes because he's getting his ass kicked, I'd be shocked if we go more than a couple of years before that next event.  "Hope" is a really bad strategy.

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

9 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Gimme a 1-2% tax on income that goes directly to retiring debt until it is below 80% of GDP, along with guardrails on increasing spending too much. Pipe dream, but the ramp up in debt since the GFC is gross and irresponsible. Especially in boom times when it wasn't needed.

The way things are going, who knows when the next "black swan" event is going to happen and we need a cushion.

 

I appreciate your idea, but we've seen how the "lock box" for Social Security turned out...

ALGORE WAS RIGHT!

[Storm the Field 5274]

Lotta smoke out there that Fed is no longer done hiking this year:

Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker is currently at 2.9% for Q2. 

Jobless claims have seen no real uptick in the past 2 months despite the banking crisis and continued layoff announcements. 

Finally, Fed watchers are expecting a significant upgrade to the economic forecast for 2023 in next month's release. 

Quote

 

Federal Reserve officials are likely to deliver their biggest upward revision to the US economic outlook since 2021 next month, as stress in the banking sector and a looming debt default belie the underlying strength of the economy.

“They are going to have to raise GDP and lower unemployment for the year,” said Julia Coronado, president of MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC and a former Fed economist. “It definitely reinforces higher for longer. The Fed isn’t going to be turning around and cutting anytime soon.”

Policymakers have plenty of reasons to be more optimistic about the three-year-old expansion: Robust job growth has continued to exceed forecasts, auto sales are at a nearly two-year high, new home sales were the highest in a year in March, and manufacturing is showing signs of stabilizing. 

That will likely prompt the Federal Open Market Committee to boost its 2023 economic growth forecast to around 1% from 0.4%, and cut its unemployment rate expected late this year to around 4% from its prior estimate of 4.5%, said Stephen Stanley, chief US economist at Santander US Capital Markets in New York.  Those figures still would reflect a much slower second half of the year though not a recession,

Stanley said the FOMC’s March unemployment estimate – 1.1 percentage point higher than unemployment in April – seems impossible absent a “really severe” recession. “They’ve been way too pessimistic about 2023 and their projections all across the board,” he said.

 

 

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

Fingers crossed.

[B00M 6280]

6 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Between the very real possibility of new viral pandemics and the hopefully less likely concern over Putin deploying nukes because he's getting his ass kicked, I'd be shocked if we go more than a couple of years before that next event.  "Hope" is a really bad strategy.

Yeah, and if the next pandemic is anytime soon, half the population will refuse to take it seriously and we will get fucked. Major bank failures and pension fund insolvency are probably more likely in the short term than another pandemic or nuclear war but the suspense is half the fun! 

[Fudge Nuggets 19152]

19 hours ago, Captainant said:

I'm sure those lower prices will trickle down annnnnnnyyyyyyy minute now....

Egg prices have come down so much my local grocery actually has the price displayed again. I think they were ashamed of their gouging back in the day. 

[B00M 6280]

Well fuck, black swan event guaranteed 

 

[tbone_ 14027]

Well fuck, black swan event guaranteed 
 

It’s probably gonna be zombies

[jimmyjazz 45597]

Is that guy right even half the time?

[Mullet Free 40]

35 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Is that guy right even half the time?

The joke is that he’s a contrary indicator. 

[StassneyHorn 6540]

On 5/17/2023 at 9:01 AM, Mullet Free said:

But you could print some money if your spouse would just agree to allow you to go further into debt. 

What’s this persons biweekly income and total debt?

 

[StassneyHorn 6540]

We’re at the ass end of rate rises. Get in the market now if you haven’t stayed and accumulated shares at the same price for 2 years. 

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

9 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Is that guy right even half the time?

[HamsterHookah 112]

14 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

We’re at the ass end of rate rises. Get in the market now if you haven’t stayed and accumulated shares at the same price for 2 years. 

I think there is at least one if not more rate rises. 

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

14 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

We’re at the ass end of rate rises.

 We certainly are in the ass end...

[Neonmoon 38127]

17 hours ago, tbone_ said:

It’s probably gonna be zombies

[Snake Diggity 4614]

I’m still calling 0.25% raise in June and that’ll be it. 

[Storm the Field 5274]

9 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

I’m still calling 0.25% raise in June and that’ll be it. 

Seen a lot speculation that they'll "skip" June and then raise another 25 in September.

[gmr548 16531]

Seen a lot speculation that they'll "skip" June and then raise another 25 in September.

That’s probably the logical play. See what the metrics look like over a couple months as recent increases make their impact on economic data and the shitty housing cost metric stops propping up CPI on a big lag.

[Mullet Free 40]