2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?

[jimmyjazz 45,538]

2 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

I have neither the time or inclination to find that cocksuckers tears about someone making a dollar.  Feel free to leave it; I couldn’t give a single fuck 

Nobody that I recall is lamenting profit.  I suspect you are referring to @Captainant or someone similar.  I don't give a fuck other than I love watching you totally misrepresent people you disagree with.  You know, because you're a disingenuous piece of shit.

Oh, was that against the rules?  Someone let me know.

[fattyflattie 4,636]

19 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Nobody that I recall is lamenting profit.  I suspect you are referring to @Captainant or someone similar.  I don't give a fuck other than I love watching you totally misrepresent people you disagree with.  You know, because you're a disingenuous piece of shit.

Oh, was that against the rules?  Someone let me know.

Am I?  What rules?  Wah. Insurance isn’t fair because it affected me personally. Wah, a company bought back stocks. Wah, investor class.   Dude gets some TikTok finance learning and comes over here to cry and get his dick put in the dirt on the reg. High entertainment that rarely disappoints. 

[jimmyjazz 45,538]

16 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

Am I?  What rules?  Wah. Insurance isn’t fair because it affected me personally. Wah, a company bought back stocks. Wah, investor class.   Dude gets some TikTok finance learning and comes over here to cry and get his dick put in the dirt on the reg. High entertainment that rarely disappoints. 

Are you drunk?

[fattyflattie 4,636]

10 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Are you drunk?

Sure. 

[StassneyHorn 6,535]

Just moved back to Scottsdale recently, I’m convinced all the places that have pho on the menu have dropped by 1-2 dollars 

so that’s it. My contribution to this thread today is an anecdotal feeling. Please tell your friends. Thumbs up

[Bozo_Casanova 26,271]

3 hours ago, fattyflattie said:

Are you not familiar with the posters I was speaking about?  Because one thinks any profit amount is price gouging, and posts as much about every fifth post. 

It’s not clear in context

[Captainant 27,403]

1 hour ago, fattyflattie said:

Am I?  What rules?  Wah. Insurance isn’t fair because it affected me personally. Wah, a company bought back stocks. Wah, investor class.   Dude gets some TikTok finance learning and comes over here to cry and get his dick put in the dirt on the reg. High entertainment that rarely disappoints. 

Methinks the lady doth protest too much

[fattyflattie 4,636]

7 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Methinks the lady doth protest too much

I would fully expect you to lol if I started spouting hilariously bad takes about tech from YouTube or wherever you get them.  

[Captainant 27,403]

22 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

I would fully expect you to lol if I started spouting hilariously bad takes about tech from YouTube or wherever you get them.  

Yes like you, I cannot think of an original thought and need to go to mass media to think for me. You nailed it, scout. 

[babysdaddy 2,718]

Wait....do we actually have a real-live proponent of "the Trump tax cuts are a net positive" and "trickle-down economics works" here?  Do tell.

Traveling but that’s not what I claimed but appreciate you putting words in my mouth.

Captain claimed it was tax cuts as the reason for deficit spending (as if no tax cuts = no deficits). That ain’t true. I’m sure you know that.

You used to bitch and moan about “seed crop”spending but now not a peep. Weird.

[Bozo_Casanova 26,271]

30 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

Captain claimed it was tax cuts as the reason for deficit spending (as if no tax cuts = no deficits). That ain’t true. I’m sure you know that.

No deficits? Probably not true that we would have no deficits without the cuts.
 

Much lower deficits without them? Almost certainly true. 
 

For example, here is the view from 2013, after the 2008 crisis and TARP, but before the totally stupid 2017 cut that made things much, much worse:

[jimmyjazz 45,538]

In the 1990's, the top marginal rate was 39.6%, and we had a budget surplus.  The fear-mongering over sky-high taxes is misplaced.  (Note that I am not saying a top marginal rate of 39.6% would balance the budget -- revenue is only part of the equation and I don't know if that would be sufficient at current spending levels.)

[Captainant 27,403]

4 hours ago, babysdaddy said:

Captain claimed it was tax cuts as the reason for deficit spending (as if no tax cuts = no deficits). That ain’t true. I’m sure you know that.

That's not what I posted, and you're putting words in my mouth. I said the tax cuts had more to do with the deficit than spending levels do, which is specifically not claiming that spending has nothing to do with the deficit.

In terms of monetary theory, the one of the best ways to fight inflation is to take money out of the economy. One of the best ways to take money out of the economy is to return it to the originating source via taxation. But we have been aggressively cutting taxes and neglecting that side of the equation.

I just don't understand the dogmatic approach to that side of monetary theory, and I don't understand yall's eagerness to misrepresent me so you can strike down a straw man.

[Snake Diggity 4,614]

On 10/31/2023 at 3:02 PM, unoriginal said:

The dollars to pay the previous debt need to be loaned into existence.

 

 

1 hour ago, Captainant said:

That's not what I posted, and you're putting words in my mouth. I said the tax cuts had more to do with the deficit than spending levels do, which is specifically not claiming that spending has nothing to do with the deficit.

In terms of monetary theory, the one of the best ways to fight inflation is to take money out of the economy. One of the best ways to take money out of the economy is to return it to the originating source via taxation. But we have been aggressively cutting taxes and neglecting that side of the equation.

I just don't understand the dogmatic approach to that side of monetary theory, and I don't understand yall's eagerness to misrepresent me so you can strike down a straw man.

The graphic previously posted ignores that possibility.  Were the payments made on existing debt ever to exceed new debt taken on, there would then be less notes in circulation (and hence those previously borrowed notes held by the Fed), rendering that “USG cannot pay back…” step as nonsensical.

[Bozo_Casanova 26,271]

2 hours ago, Captainant said:

I just don't understand the dogmatic approach to that side of monetary theory

Because the've been brainwashed by partisan horseshit. It's worse than the leftie MMT people, even, because it's political orthodoxy for like half the country. Bush I knew his business when he called it voodoo. 
 

[fattyflattie 4,636]

14 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Because the've been brainwashed by partisan horseshit. It's worse than the leftie MMT people, even, because it's political orthodoxy for like half the country. Bush I knew his business when he called it voodoo. 
 

Everyone understands it. They’d rather the govt tighten their spending than take additional money out of their pocket. Especially if they disagree on the way it’s being wasted.  

[jimmyjazz 45,538]

1 hour ago, fattyflattie said:

Everyone understands it. They’d rather the govt tighten their spending than take additional money out of their pocket. Especially if they disagree on the way it’s being wasted.  

So why do people keep voting for politicians who are demonstrably worse at balancing the budget?

[BabaYaga 15,205]

22 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

In the 1990's, the top marginal rate was 39.6%, and we had a budget surplus.  

This is so simplistic it's scary.  

[Bozo_Casanova 26,271]

1 hour ago, fattyflattie said:

Everyone understands it. They’d rather the govt tighten their spending than take additional money out of their pocket. Especially if they disagree on the way it’s being wasted.  

Sadly you are living in the past. Do you not understand it’s going to come out of your and everyone else’s pocket regardless?

There was a time when spending cuts (via a restructuring of military spending and entitlements) could get us there. We are well past that point as of a decade ago. We are well past the point of how things should be or what people “disagree” about.
 

[fattyflattie 4,636]

21 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

So why do people keep voting for politicians who are demonstrably worse at balancing the budget?

Because maybe it’s not their #1 pet political priority?  Maybe they see the folks saying I vote with them, but do not associate me with or call me that name (examples all over the board) causing them pause?  Maybe their industry is better under one ethos vs the other, and that it’s  more important for their business to grow than worrying about their great great great grandkids ability to have a decent tax/interest outlook.   Dozens of reasons, really. 

[bernorange 8,348]

Quote

Is high debt constraining monetary policy?
...
Does higher debt make it more difficult to contain inflation? In principle, various mechanisms through which this could be the case are conceivable. For example, monetary policymakers may be (seen as) hesitant to raise interest rates as much as needed to reduce inflation because this boosts borrowing costs for governments. Central banks may also worry about the impact of rising rates on their own net income if they pay banks interest on excess reserves. Moreover, bonds previously bought by central banks drop in value when interest rates rise, which means that central banks may avoid raising rates and thereby losses. In extreme cases, people may even believe that the central bank could try to inflate away part of the debt or "print money" to pay for future deficits.
...
The paper finds that debt surprises raise long-term inflation expectations in emerging market economies in a persistent way, but not in advanced economies. The effects are stronger when initial debt levels are already high, when inflation levels are initially elevated, and when sovereign debt is denominated to a significant extent in dollars. By contrast, debt surprises have only modest effects in countries with inflation targeting regimes. ...

https://www.bis.org/publ/work1141.htm

Last quoted sentence:

[bernorange 8,348]

Follow up to Druckenmiller's comments from a week ago:

Quote

...
Onto our call of the day, which deals with another worry — a wall of government debt that will be with us for decades. It comes from Bridgewater’s highly regraded co-chief investment officer Bob Prince, who was speaking at the Global Financial Leaders’ Investment Summit on Tuesday, hosted by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
...
“The after effects of offsetting deleveraging and pandemic, you’ve had a massive wealth shift from the public sector to the private sector and that’s left the government with debt to GDP up from 70% up to 120%. And the particular vulnerability of that is in the debt rollovers and the gross issuance that you’re going to see in the coming decades . You’re stuck with that debt until you pay it off and that means you have to roll it over like anybody else does,” said Prince.
...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-wall-of-debt-rolling-over-heres-whats-scaring-bridgewaters-co-cio-ea1e6852?rss=1&siteid=rss

 

[Captainant 27,403]

7 minutes ago, bernorange said:

Follow up to Druckenmiller's comments from a week ago:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-wall-of-debt-rolling-over-heres-whats-scaring-bridgewaters-co-cio-ea1e6852?rss=1&siteid=rss

 

You're telling me that goosing the market with debt funded stimulus while not in economic crisis may have been unnecessarily expensive and wasteful?? Next you'll say the come down from a coke bender is no fun!

[Shaggy3.0 1,695]

while you guys crunchin' numbers, the people feelin it.

Inflation is real, ya'll

[Guest]

Damn, what's up with oil/gasoline? When the attack in Israel happened, I thought for sure we were going to see a spike. I even went and filled up. Instead, both are tanking. 

[bernorange 8,348]

17 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Damn, what's up with oil/gasoline? ...

The Chinaman *is* the issue.

Quote

... weaker-than-expected economic data out of China that has cast a pall over much of the raw commodity sector today. ...
...
The latest economic data out of the world’s second-largest economy saw China’s October exports fall 6.4%, year-on-year, which was lower than expected. China’s imports rose a less-than-expected 3.0%, year-on-year. China is a massive consumer of raw commodities and when its economy is listing it dampens bullish enthusiasm across the raw commodity market spectrum—on weakening demand concerns.
...

https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-11-07/Downbeat-China-data-puts-price-pressure-on-gold-silver.html

[bernorange 8,348]

Quote

... The dollar is rebounding from a sharp selloff last week amid rising confidence that the Fed has ended its rate hiking cycle, though analysts expect the U.S. economy to slow in the fourth quarter and potentially enter a recession.

Oil prices slid to more than three-month lows on concern over waning U.S. and Chinese demand ...

https://www.reuters.com/markets/global-markets-wrapup-1-2023-11-08/

[KYHorn 16,833]

 

[Goliad 104]

Oh

 

[Goliad 104]

Some chatter the last couple days about this Treasury auction. A good thread here for the novices like myself about how they’re run. 
 

 

[B00M 6,280]

12 hours ago, KYHorn said:

 

If that’s real, it’s spectacular. What exactly do climate change protestors want him to do, destroy the dollar and turn the US into Africa where useless idiots like them are the first casualties? 

 

[B00M 6,280]

14 minutes ago, Goliad said:

Some chatter the last couple days about this Treasury auction. A good thread here for the novices like myself about how they’re run. 
 

 

Can you like, embrace whatever user name you used to have (GRU?) and stick it at the end of every new name? It’s sad and weird man.

but yeah many of us have been concerned about the federal debt for a very long time and shit is finally getting real for the congress that never passes a budget. 
 

[Grape Ape 0]

Noted 

[52-80 19,076]

On 11/11/2023 at 2:28 AM, B00M said:

If that’s real, it’s spectacular. What exactly do climate change protestors want him to do, destroy the dollar and turn the US into Africa where useless idiots like them are the first casualties? 

 

Activists dont have much depth of thought beyond This Current Thing Bad. 

[Shaggy3.0 1,695]

On 11/12/2023 at 6:40 AM, 52-80 said:

Activists dont have much depth of thought beyond This Current Thing Bad. 

Sounds like the football board.

[52-80 19,076]

2 hours ago, Shaggy3.0 said:

Sounds like the football board.

Current QB bad. Next QB good. 

[StassneyHorn 6,535]

C’mon guys, post the news already

[52-80 19,076]

5 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

C’mon guys, post the news already

Oh, okay. 
 

we had a respite in price growth on the basis of last month to this month. Its in the green box. 

 

 

[StassneyHorn 6,535]

2 hours ago, 52-80 said:

Oh, okay. 
 

we had a respite in price growth on the basis of last month to this month. Its in the green box. 

 

 

Try again cutie

[Trey3216 15,325]

34 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Try again cutie

Everything is fine…nothing to see here!   

[StassneyHorn 6,535]

Everything is fine

[jimmyjazz 45,538]

Never in the history of the United States have we had price growth month over month.

[52-80 19,076]

7 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Never in the history of the United States have we had price growth month over month.

wider history here:

[bernorange 8,348]

Quote

Energy prices plunged, durable goods prices (cars, electronics, furniture, etc.) dropped, food prices rose moderately, as some food prices dropped and meat prices jumped, according to the Consumer Price Index data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

But the action was in services, and has been for a long time. The CPI for Rent inflation – actual rents that tenants are paying – re-accelerated for the third month in a row, motor vehicle insurance spiked, lots of services jumped, but airline fares, rental cars, and some other services fell.

And the odious health insurance adjustment, which is part of services, reversed, as expected. It had caused the health insurance CPI to collapse by nearly 4% month-to-month every month for 12 months through September, and finally by 37% year-over-year, after the pandemic healthcare distortions had spectacularly blown up the model the BLS had used to estimate health insurance costs.

Now the health insurance CPI went the other way, as expected, and jumped month-to-month, and will jump month-to-month for the next six months under a newly tweaked system – and the jumps will get bigger. ...

More:

https://wolfstreet.com/2023/11/14/beneath-the-skin-of-cpi-inflation/

[StassneyHorn 6,535]

Headline producer price index drops 0.5% in October, largest decline since April 2020

https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/headline-producer-price-index-drops-0-5-in-october-largest-decline-since-april-2020-12489b74

[52-80 19,076]

28 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Headline producer price index drops 0.5% in October, largest decline since April 2020

https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/headline-producer-price-index-drops-0-5-in-october-largest-decline-since-april-2020-12489b74

How much MoM drop to put it back on trend cutie

[StassneyHorn 6,535]

35 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

How much MoM drop to put it back on trend cutie

Plane landed

Cake baked

Interest rates peaked

Go back to eating the tablets you should be dumping other people’s pools.

WhErE’s ThE tREnD?

 

[52-80 19,076]

6 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Plane landed

Cake baked

Interest rates peaked

Go back to eating the tablets you should be dumping other people’s pools.

WhErE’s ThE tREnD?

 

Because how much Conagra pays Deere for a tractor reflects the price of rent for the studio apartment you share with comradeant 

[StassneyHorn 6,535]

I’m sorry, did posting a pertinent graph hurt you, or did you lash out without reading and make an unrelated comparison?

 

[52-80 19,076]

1 hour ago, StassneyHorn said:

I’m sorry, did posting a pertinent graph hurt you, or did you lash out without reading and make an unrelated comparison?

 

Which of the 2 measurement is most pertinent and related to the typical expenditure of an individual?

if you answer right, you could collect the first wrinkle on your brain