2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?

[Neonmoon 38127]

Finance having a banner year

[Bozo_Casanova 26271]

3 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Finance having a banner year

Looks like I picked the right year to move into Finance 😬

[Captainant 27403]

14 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Finance having a banner year

they're not cutting jobs - they're "managing operating expense" to ensure a steady profit growth quarter over quarter. Duh! Consultant out front shoulda told ya.

[StassneyHorn 6535]

Subway Chicken n Bacon ranch

Thunderclouds meatball

JJ Tuna

this is the correct ranking of overpriced sandwiches and not up for debate

 

[52-80 19076]

3 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

Finance having a banner year

As a divorced father of 7 children who just lost a job at citigroup, my biggest worry is the price of a Chicken Melt on Rye, and its great there are elected leaders out there protecting my interest from the greedy Big Hoagie Cartel. 

[ChickenSandwich 9798]

I prefer the teamsters at Jersey Mike’s

[jimmyjazz 45538]

I'd just like a decent Philly for a decent price.  Way South Philly closed, Delaware sucks at this point, Little Deli is basically calling a roast beef sammich a Philly, and Jewboy didn't put me over the moon.

[Hornius Emeritus 12408]

3 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

I'd just like a decent Philly for a decent price.  Way South Philly closed, Delaware sucks at this point, Little Deli is basically calling a roast beef sammich a Philly, and Jewboy didn't put me over the moon.

Go get you one at R&B's Steak and Fries on East 11th. LEGIT!

[Parliament 14121]

Guys take it to the "crap food you love" thread over on F&D.  You'll find me and my 12" Subway meatball sub (with extra jalapenos) over there.

[Captainant 27403]

41 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Guys take it to the "crap food you love" thread over on F&D.  You'll find me and my 12" Subway meatball sub (with extra jalapenos) over there.

Hey hey now, they needed to change the subject so they could wipe the egg off their face after that ruling came out and pantsed their arguments on price gouging

[Goliad 104]

20 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

Subway Chicken n Bacon ranch

Thunderclouds meatball

JJ Tuna

this is the correct ranking of overpriced sandwiches and not up for debate

 

Subway is considered overpriced? No wonder you pack a lunch.

When I think of Thundercloud I think of dirty hippies making my sandwich. Meh

Jimmy John’s is just terrible. 
 

Jersey Mike’s and Potbelly clearly sit at the top of the sandwich pyramid. 

Edited November 28, 2023 by Goliad

[Trey3216 15325]

4 hours ago, Parliament said:

Guys take it to the "crap food you love" thread over on F&D.  You'll find me and my 12" Subway meatball sub (with extra jalapenos) over there.

Jalapenos on a meatball sub??  Banana peppers only my man  

[StassneyHorn 6535]

1 hour ago, Goliad said:

Subway is considered overpriced? No wonder you pack a lunch.

When I think of Thundercloud I think of dirty hippies making my sandwich. Meh

Jimmy John’s is just terrible. 
 

Jersey Mike’s and Potbelly clearly sit at the top of the sandwich pyramid. 

Any sandwich over 5 dollars is overpriced. Always will be.

 

 

[TxTower 649]

A little shocked there has been no mention of Schlotzskys or Texadelphia

[Biff Tannen 45491]

19 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

I'd just like a decent Philly for a decent price.  Way South Philly closed, Delaware sucks at this point, Little Deli is basically calling a roast beef sammich a Philly, and Jewboy didn't put me over the moon.

If you're central, hit up the spot where Delaware used to be on 34th behind Seton.  Now called Otherside Deli.

[jimmyjazz 45538]

3 hours ago, Goliad said:

When I think of Thundercloud I think of dirty hippies making my sandwich.

Hey hey hey, I've had a son and daughter work there, and neither is a hippie.

[jimmyjazz 45538]

3 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Jalapenos on a meatball sub??  Banana peppers only my man  

My go-to at Delaware, before they shit the bed, was the philly with provolone, onions, and double peppers (sweet + hot).  That was a fine sammich.

[Bozo_Casanova 26271]

On 11/27/2023 at 7:45 PM, jimmyjazz said:

Way South Philly closed

WSP was so good, and that guy was really nice. I was a regular customer from the opening of the trailer to the closing of the shop on Burnet.

Edited November 29, 2023 by Bozo_Casanova

[jimmyjazz 45538]

2 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

WSP was so good, and that guy was really nice. I was a regular customer from the opening of the trailer to the closing of the shop on Burnet.

Yeah, I hope he has something new going.  One night he closed early, presumably because business was slow, and I showed up just a little bit before his actual closing time.  He opened back up and made me a cheesesteak.  I felt really bad, I was all "dude, it's OK, you want to go home" but he insisted.  And that philly?  Well, it was damn good.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13406]

I see that Dimon is hammering home the recession warnings again. https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/29/investing/jamie-dimon-recession-jpmorgan-economy/index.html

The banks warn on recessions to prevent them from happening. After all weren't financial leaders talking about the strong likelihood of a 2023 recession and we just had a >5% GDP growth in the US? We need more of these "recessions" so my retirement accounts allow me to retire earlier than planned.

Also if they keep warning about a recession, I suppose they will eventually be correct in some future year.

EDIT: I do agree with Dimon that inflation is hurting people especially people that have limited job options, live on a fixed income or frankly are just bad personal finance managers. None of that makes them deserve to be struggling but it doesn't change the fact that they are struggling.

Edited November 29, 2023 by Nice Guy Eddie

[Incredulity 11541]

Dimon has been consistent on calling a  impending recession for 18 months or so.  "hurricane is coming"

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/01/jamie-dimon-says-brace-yourself-for-an-economic-hurricane-caused-by-the-fed-and-ukraine-war.html

 

He is a lot of things, but I don't believe he has the reputation of chicken little or manipulating markets like say Ackman.

[babysdaddy 2718]

43 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I see that Dimon is hammering home the recession warnings again. https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/29/investing/jamie-dimon-recession-jpmorgan-economy/index.html

The banks warn on recessions to prevent them from happening. After all weren't financial leaders talking about the strong likelihood of a 2023 recession and we just had a >5% GDP growth in the US? We need more of these "recessions" so my retirement accounts allow me to retire earlier than planned.

Also if they keep warning about a recession, I suppose they will eventually be correct in some future year.

EDIT: I do agree with Dimon that inflation is hurting people especially people that have limited job options, live on a fixed income or frankly are just bad personal finance managers. None of that makes them deserve to be struggling but it doesn't change the fact that they are struggling.

growth with inflation feels fucked to a lot of people.  Confusing times to say the least. Disinflation (the good kind) bringing rates down 

 

 

[bernorange 8348]

1 hour ago, babysdaddy said:

growth with inflation feels fucked to a lot of people. ...

To be fair, I think it's mostly just the inflation part.

https://www.surlyhorns.com/board/topic/19611-2021-is-inflation-finally-back-in-the-conversation/?do=findComment&comment=5751413

 

[bernorange 8348]

Apparently, @Captainantis now working for a British think tank...

Quote

Many large international companies were able to comfortably increase prices during the global inflation period, protecting or even driving up their profit margins, while ordinary families saw their real incomes wither away, according to a new report from IPPR and Common Wealth.

Energy companies like ExxonMobil and Shell, mining firms such as Glencore and Rio Tinto, and food and commodities giants like Kraft Heinz, Archer-Daniels-Midland and Bunge all saw their profits far outpace inflation in the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.  

Because energy and food prices feed so significantly into costs across all sectors of the wider economy, this exacerbated the initial price shock – contributing to inflation peaking higher and lasting longer than had there been less market power, the report argues. Firms in other sectors such as tech, telecommunications and finance also saw high profit increases.

Such companies have been able to protect their profit margins or even increase them – setting prices higher than are socially and economically beneficial, and so generating ‘excess profits’ - through a combination of high market power and global market dynamics, the report says.

It builds on work by Isabella Weber, assistant professor at the University of Massachusetts, who has argued that profits in ‘systemic sectors’ can have an outsized impact on inflation across the wider economy. IPPR and Common Wealth researchers undertook the first multi-country analysis of corporate profits to explore this, analysing financial statements of 1,350 companies listed on the stock markets of the UK, US, Germany, Brazil and South Africa.

They discovered nominal profits averaged at least 30 per cent higher at the end of 2022 (Q4), compared to the end of 2019 (pre-pandemic).

Companies that were amongst those increasing their profits most  after the pandemic include (all converted to £):

• ExxonMobil, whose average annualised profits rose from £15 billion to £53billion
• Shell, whose average annualised profits rose from £16 billion to £44 billion
• Glencore, whose average annualised profits rose from £1.9 billion to £14.8 billion
• Archer-Daniels-Midland, whose average annualised profits rose from £1.4  
• Kraft Heinz, whose annualised profits rose from £265 million to £ 1.8 billion

A rise in nominal profits need not imply that firms have raised their profit margins, the report says; for many it is the result of passing on their higher costs to consumers, maintaining the same degree of profitability (as a percentage of nominal sales) - while squeezed wage earners across the economy took losses.

But there is evidence that some stock market-listed firms not only protected their margins but also increased them, not only passing inflation on but further amplifying it.

The market power held by a small number of companies can be a significant factor in profitability, the research found. In the UK, 90 per cent of nominal profit increases during this period occurred in only 11 per cent of publicly listed firms. Many other companies experienced a reduction in profits.

Researchers found that if companies accepted a hit to their profit margins – similar to that endured by wage earners – and stopped trying to fully pass on their higher costs to others - then ‘pass the parcel’ inflation would decrease. Such inflation accounted for about three-quarters of UK inflation at the end of 2022, according to Bank of England research.
...

https://www.ippr.org/news-and-media/press-releases/revealed-how-powerful-companies-are-amplifying-inflation-through-their-profit-margins

[Captainant 27403]

33 minutes ago, bernorange said:

Apparently, @Captainantis now working for a British think tank...

https://www.ippr.org/news-and-media/press-releases/revealed-how-powerful-companies-are-amplifying-inflation-through-their-profit-margins

Gee, it's almost like it's a simple empirical observation from the data we already have. Idk why it's such a shocking thought that firms with cartel pricing power are exploiting their consumers for extra profit. Shits just basic capitalism. 

[Storm the Field 5271]

UMich consumer sentiment hit its best reading in several months. Inflation expectations cratered. Gas prices tanking probably accounts for a lot of that.

 

[B00M 6280]

On that note, it seems like a good time to at least partially refill the strategic reserve. We’re not still depleting it, are we?

[Incredulity 11541]

23 minutes ago, B00M said:

On that note, it seems like a good time to at least partially refill the strategic reserve. We’re not still depleting it, are we?

I have heard representatives of the Administration say they are going to fill it, and or are filling it on cable business/news shows recently.  I don't really know how much granular data is available on what is actually happening.

here is what a simple google turns up

https://www.energy.gov/ceser/articles/us-department-energy-announces-monthly-solicitations-purchase-oil-strategic

[Captainant 27403]

1 hour ago, B00M said:

On that note, it seems like a good time to at least partially refill the strategic reserve. We’re not still depleting it, are we?

I don't think we're depleting it but the DOE deputy secretary said they can only intake 3M barrels a month due to physical constraints and maintenance on the SPR infrastructure. A 700M barrel reserve is gonna take a long damn time to fill up at that rate. If being lucky is preparation meeting opportunity, DOE isn't doing themselves any favors by being such poor stewards of the SPR infrastructure 

[StassneyHorn 6535]

The Oil and Guess thread has Reuters report from October that says the administration was going to refill in December through January.

[Trey3216 15325]

8 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

The Oil and Guess thread has Reuters report from October that says the administration was going to refill in December through January.

700mm barrel call option in the pockets of those excessive profit makers!!!!  The horror!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  

[StassneyHorn 6535]

What are you on?

[fattyflattie 4636]

5 hours ago, B00M said:

On that note, it seems like a good time to at least partially refill the strategic reserve. We’re not still depleting it, are we?

Better get to filling in the event it needs another “strategic release” oh I dunno, late second/early third qtr of ‘24. 

[B00M 6280]

4 hours ago, Captainant said:

I don't think we're depleting it but the DOE deputy secretary said they can only intake 3M barrels a month due to physical constraints and maintenance on the SPR infrastructure. A 700M barrel reserve is gonna take a long damn time to fill up at that rate. If being lucky is preparation meeting opportunity, DOE isn't doing themselves any favors by being such poor stewards of the SPR infrastructure 

Ok so per that article the SPR is about half full at 350M barrels. At 3M barrels per month it will take … TEN years to refill? Holy fuckin shit, that seems like a problem. 

[StassneyHorn 6535]

Why?

[B00M 6280]

7 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

Why?

Given the events of the last few years, it seems short sighted to assume we don’t need the SPR.  I realize we only import like 3% of our oil from the Middle East but if China invades Taiwan and we lose a lot of our pacific fleet, it doesn’t seem crazy to assume Iran and Houthis could disrupt flow out of the ME precisely when our national consumption (and that of our allies) will surge.

why do you think it’s not a problem? If it’s cool that we physically can’t refill our SPR, what do we even have it for? 
 

[HiggyBaby 2513]

SIAP, I don’t lurk over here often but this seems like the right thread. Was having a conversation with a mortgage lender buddy and brought up business. It’s obviously down but he says there’s a steady flow of customers cashing out at a higher interest rate just to get out from their credit card debt. I had to look up the stats and it’s crazy since the end of Covid.

https://www.lendingtree.com/credit-cards/credit-card-debt-statistics/

[Captainant 27403]

8 minutes ago, HiggyBaby said:

SIAP, I don’t lurk over here often but this seems like the right thread. Was having a conversation with a mortgage lender buddy and brought up business. It’s obviously down but he says there’s a steady flow of customers cashing out at a higher interest rate just to get out from their credit card debt. I had to look up the stats and it’s crazy since the end of Covid.

https://www.lendingtree.com/credit-cards/credit-card-debt-statistics/

It's almost like people are keeping less of what they take home nowadays, or something 

[Wally Fairway 5517]

2 hours ago, B00M said:

If it’s cool that we physically can’t refill our SPR, what do we even have it for? 
 

Obviously the SPR is actually for political gamesmanship.

And why would producers want to ramp up at $70 when they might be able to wait for $100 (or more under your scenario)

[Neonmoon 38127]

Headline CPI at 3.1% and Core CPI at 4.0%

[Neonmoon 38127]

This guy posted a lot of good stuff

 

[jimmyjazz 45538]

Wrong metric something something something

[B00M 6280]

3 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

Obviously the SPR is actually for political gamesmanship.

And why would producers want to ramp up at $70 when they might be able to wait for $100 (or more under your scenario)

So you mean it has no real strategic value and all it gives us is negotiating leverage with other oil producers? Or am I missing it?

[Incredulity 11541]

3 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

And why would producers want to ramp up at $70

Because they made the decision to ramp up when the barrel price was $100 and every talking head was in agreement it was headed upwards.

These things(production) don't just turn on and off like a light switch.

[Ghost of LL 15469]

6 hours ago, B00M said:

Given the events of the last few years, it seems short sighted to assume we don’t need the SPR.  I realize we only import like 3% of our oil from the Middle East but if China invades Taiwan and we lose a lot of our pacific fleet, it doesn’t seem crazy to assume Iran and Houthis could disrupt flow out of the ME precisely when our national consumption (and that of our allies) will surge.

why do you think it’s not a problem? If it’s cool that we physically can’t refill our SPR, what do we even have it for? 
 

Now that the United States is a net exporter of petroleum, it's really hard to justify the SPR.  It's akin to Greenland maintaining a Strategic Ice Reserve or Oklahoma holding on to a Strategic Meth Reserve.  It doesn't really make any sense.

[Incredulity 11541]

Yeah, I mean no one has ever needed to fall back on reserve inventory of any production material in the history of making stuff.

Edited December 12, 2023 by Incredulity

[Skipper 6100]

5 hours ago, HiggyBaby said:

SIAP, I don’t lurk over here often but this seems like the right thread. Was having a conversation with a mortgage lender buddy and brought up business. It’s obviously down but he says there’s a steady flow of customers cashing out at a higher interest rate just to get out from their credit card debt. I had to look up the stats and it’s crazy since the end of Covid.

https://www.lendingtree.com/credit-cards/credit-card-debt-statistics/

Just had a similar conversation with my wife.  I always pay off card monthly but not sure I've ever had a higher current balance than when I logged in yesterday to make the payment.  Granted there are extenuating circumstances (Big 12 champ tix, Sugar Bowl trip flight and hotel prepaid, refundable flight/hotel to Houston for championship game) on top of all of the typical Christmas related charges, but still, it was a bit shocking and I did a double take.  It's just crazy how expensive everything is.  I've got reserves to absorb it but I don't know how people living paycheck to paycheck or "budgeting" based on prior spending are handling it.  The chart above is not surprising at all.  Feel like this all has to come crashing down at some point in '24 but I've been saying that this entire year so who knows.

[Neonmoon 38127]

Candy is high as fuck

[jimmyjazz 45538]

1 hour ago, Skipper said:

Just had a similar conversation with my wife.  I always pay off card monthly but not sure I've ever had a higher current balance than when I logged in yesterday to make the payment.  Granted there are extenuating circumstances (Big 12 champ tix, Sugar Bowl trip flight and hotel prepaid, refundable flight/hotel to Houston for championship game) on top of all of the typical Christmas related charges, but still, it was a bit shocking and I did a double take.  It's just crazy how expensive everything is.  I've got reserves to absorb it but I don't know how people living paycheck to paycheck or "budgeting" based on prior spending are handling it.

Well, people living paycheck to paycheck don't buy $1K game tickets, multiple flights or $1K hotel rooms (per night).  Your experience, while perhaps surprising to you, has nothing to do with the average middle income American.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Skipper said:

Just had a similar conversation with my wife.  I always pay off card monthly but not sure I've ever had a higher current balance than when I logged in yesterday to make the payment.  Granted there are extenuating circumstances (Big 12 champ tix, Sugar Bowl trip flight and hotel prepaid, refundable flight/hotel to Houston for championship game) on top of all of the typical Christmas related charges, but still, it was a bit shocking and I did a double take.  It's just crazy how expensive everything is.  I've got reserves to absorb it but I don't know how people living paycheck to paycheck or "budgeting" based on prior spending are handling it.  The chart above is not surprising at all.  Feel like this all has to come crashing down at some point in '24 but I've been saying that this entire year so who knows.

Lol. Is this post a troll? 

"Let me complain about higher expenses while I'm buying tickets to major football games, multiple flights and hotels to go drop even more on football games, all during the Christmas holidays."