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2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?

Reagan1k

By Reagan1k
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ChickenSandwich

ChickenSandwich 9797

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Tell me you’re a millennial without telling me you’re a millennial.

FFS I wish you stupid fucks would look at something that goes back more than 15 minutes.

Tell me you are in the top 20% of household incomes ($130k) without telling me your in the top 20% of household incomes. 

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The only thing more predictable than the GOP running up huge deficits on tax cuts and military spending, is each one suddenly becoming horrified by deficit spending 5 mins after a Democrat is sworn in

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Gatorubet

Gatorubet 30063

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, ChickenSandwich said:

Tell me you are in the top 20% of household incomes ($130k) without telling me your in the top 20% of household incomes. 

I believe his point was talking about historical inflation. I have a friend who bought his first house for 15 1/2% interest. The interest rate was 13% when I bought my first house. We have been living in a low interest bubble for quite some time. While that is great, it is absolutely not the norm in our country forever.   Somewhere, I have an old WIN button from the Jimmy Carter era, which signifies Whip Inflation Now.   I recall at the time some utility companies had 19% bonds you could lock into.   

I’m not saying that the increase in inflation is a good thing, but people bitching about 6 or 7 or 8% do indeed have a limited worldview because of their age.  This obviously does not affect people who are suffering right now.

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19118

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, ChickenSandwich said:

Tell me you are in the top 20% of household incomes ($130k) without telling me your in the top 20% of household incomes. 

You underestimate my income… a lot. But my income has nothing to do with you calling the last couple of years “24 consecutive months of record inflation.”  I guess we’re going to pretend the late 70’s early 80’s didn’t happen. 

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Neonmoon

Neonmoon 38127

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, bernorange said:

It's not apples to apples to compare CPI over long stretches of time because the calculation criteria changes.

https://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

Yeah guys, just look at this fucking weirdo anti-Fed website I found. The government is lying to you. Wake up sheeple. 

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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 31184

Posted
Posted
On 9/1/2023 at 9:02 AM, Cheeseweasel said:

90, 92, and 2016. 

So, if I recall correctly, tuition for 90 and 92 was less than about $1000/year (>$3000 for the professional graduate degree), which makes the ROI calculation a lot less critical.  Like, non-critical.

By 2016, presumably, you are about 40 something and making an informed cost-benefit decision on the ROI of the tuition, which has increased about 20x.

Yes, it is true that people make lousy cost-benefit decisions on education, particularly when they can't do it on a cash basis or nearly so.  But, like home ownership, the "incentives" to do it can overwhelm good decision-making.

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G650

G650 13989

Posted
Posted
On 12/23/2023 at 10:59 PM, Gatorubet said:

I believe his point was talking about historical inflation. I have a friend who bought his first house for 15 1/2% interest. The interest rate was 13% when I bought my first house. We have been living in a low interest bubble for quite some time. While that is great, it is absolutely not the norm in our country forever.   Somewhere, I have an old WIN button from the Jimmy Carter era, which signifies Whip Inflation Now.   I recall at the time some utility companies had 19% bonds you could lock into.   

I’m not saying that the increase in inflation is a good thing, but people bitching about 6 or 7 or 8% do indeed have a limited worldview because of their age.  This obviously does not affect people who are suffering right now.

 

The wild part is I had god knows how many conversations over the past 10 years that this bizarre no interest rate environment has to end at some point. It lasted waaaay longer than I had ever dreamed it would. I remember my first mortgage was 6.75%, and it was a killer deal.

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Incredulity

Incredulity 11532

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, G650 said:

 

The wild part is I had god knows how many conversations over the past 10 years that this bizarre no interest rate environment has to end at some point. It lasted waaaay longer than I had ever dreamed it would. I remember my first mortgage was 6.75%, and it was a killer deal.

I agree with all of this. 

However, I keep having the thought that the current Federal debt at historically average rates is a catastrophe.  It would probably be best if we(the royal we) had the fortitude to deal with it and the austerity it will cause.  I don't think we do.

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45476

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, G650 said:

 

The wild part is I had god knows how many conversations over the past 10 years that this bizarre no interest rate environment has to end at some point. It lasted waaaay longer than I had ever dreamed it would. I remember my first mortgage was 6.75%, and it was a killer deal.

I'm locked in on mine from 2010 at 3.875%.  Pretty much resigned to the fact that I'll never get that deal again.

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fattyflattie

fattyflattie 4636

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

I'm locked in on mine from 2010 at 3.875%.  Pretty much resigned to the fact that I'll never get that deal again.

2.625 here and feels like I really fucked up not leveling up a few levels at the time.  Oh, well. Maybe next time we get decades of free money I’ll remember that lesson.   

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5270

Posted
Posted
On 12/24/2023 at 8:57 PM, bernorange said:

It's not apples to apples to compare CPI over long stretches of time because the calculation criteria changes.

https://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

Ahh, good ol ' Shadowstats. The website that cranks and hacks trot out every so often to show that the "real" unemployment rate is actually 25% or something (usually referenced when there's a Democrat in office).

They get their "data" by literally just making shit up. They take the official reported numbers for CPI, GDP, jobs...etc. and then just tack on or subtract a large percentage they've made up (whichever makes the number look worse) and say "these are what the numbers should be if calculated the right way before they started started fudging the numbers in (insert a year during the Clinton administration)."

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45512

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Storm the Field said:

Ahh, good ol ' Shadowstats. The website that cranks and hacks trot out every so often to show that the "real" unemployment rate is actually 25% or something (usually referenced when there's a Democrat in office).

They get their "data" by literally just making shit up. They take the official reported numbers for CPI, GDP, jobs...etc. and then just tack on or subtract a large percentage they've made up (whichever makes the number look worse) and say "these are what the numbers should be if calculated the right way before they started started fudging the numbers in (insert a year during the Clinton administration)."

I added the missing data in their graph:

image.png.a9251e2a04dc282a9acb7c1ff7d17ccc.png

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Posted
Posted

Pepsi and 7up canned from supermarket shelves over ‘unacceptable’ price rises

A supermarket chain has said it will no longer sell Pepsi and 7up in protest against “unacceptable” price rises.French retail giant Carrefour said it plans to ditch PepsiCo products after repeated price increases despite the cost of living crisis.

Shelves once stocked with PepsiCo drinks will be now accompanied by a note that reads: “We are no longer selling this brand due to unacceptable price increases.” The grocery giant, which has more than 12,000 stores worldwide, said the signs will only appear in France.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pepsi-7up-canned-supermarket-shelves-125033648.html

I point this out because Pepsi is own by PepsiCo, which also owns the Doritos brand. I mentioned a bit ago how the price of those chips has gone up 80% since inflation hit and I didn't buy it for a second that the cost of producing and getting them to store shelves had risen 80%. Looks like I'm not the only one.

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Sbbruin

Sbbruin 21697

Posted
Posted
On 12/26/2023 at 4:34 PM, fattyflattie said:

2.625 here and feels like I really fucked up not leveling up a few levels at the time.  Oh, well. Maybe next time we get decades of free money I’ll remember that lesson.   

Yeah, I took my 4% 30 year to a 2.75% 15 year.  Only paying about $200 more/month but LOVE seeing that principal shed away each month.

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Captainant

Captainant 27308

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

Wage growth is a fun number to toss in because it includes the top flight that are taking the lions share of wage growth by dollar. Sure, you can say "hourly workers got a 50% pay bump!" But going from $12 to $17 an hour ain't gonna pull anyone out of desperation and poverty

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Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Wage growth is a fun number to toss in because it includes the top flight that are taking the lions share of wage growth by dollar. Sure, you can say "hourly workers got a 50% pay bump!" But going from $12 to $17 an hour ain't gonna pull anyone out of desperation and poverty

Today I learned 5/12=50%

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45512

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

zerohedge.com. Same thing.

What does the phrase "zero hedge" mean, anyway?  A zero cost hedge?  No such thing exists, right?  Insurance costs money.  Buy a long call, it'll cost you.  Buy a put to hedge your long stock, it'll cost you.  Buy homeowner's insurance, it'll cost you.

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Neonmoon

Neonmoon 38127

Posted
Posted
On 1/5/2024 at 10:39 AM, Captainant said:

Wage growth is a fun number to toss in because it includes the top flight that are taking the lions share of wage growth by dollar. Sure, you can say "hourly workers got a 50% pay bump!" But going from $12 to $17 an hour ain't gonna pull anyone out of desperation and poverty

Let's not attack good news because it's not perfect. Wage growth has been better for 75% of workers. 

image.thumb.png.fda632eb94de5e5a328017a25f9acf9d.png

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Captainant

Captainant 27308

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

Let's not attack good news because it's not perfect. Wage growth has been better for 75% of workers. 

image.thumb.png.fda632eb94de5e5a328017a25f9acf9d.png

75th percentile means that it's higher than 75% of wages. The top 25% has the highest wage growth according to this chart, and the group that makes more than 25% of the population (the bottom 25%) saw their wages fall. 

 

Also, the average is above the median which is another indicator of top-heavy distribution 

Edited by Captainant
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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5270

Posted
Posted
20 hours ago, Captainant said:

75th percentile means that it's higher than 75% of wages. The top 25% has the highest wage growth according to this chart, and the group that makes more than 25% of the population (the bottom 25%) saw their wages fall. 

 

Also, the average is above the median which is another indicator of top-heavy distribution 

This isn't a shot or anything, because you obviously do get it, but your reference to median vs mean here is timely given that I've been watching in fascination the last day or so as a mainstream liberal econ guy has been attempting to explain the difference between median and mean to far-left Bernie bros on Twitter. A seemingly Sisyphean task if you dig through his feed the last few days.

Although, once in a while, he manages to break through.

 

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5270

Posted
Posted
On 8/31/2023 at 9:26 AM, bernorange said:

I did not expect these numbers to be so high.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/31/living-paycheck-to-paycheck-inflation-is-still-squeezing-budgets.html

Apologies for the necro bump, but I've seen this statistic pop up in recent days, and I remember it being referenced in this thread. 

The number seems shockingly high b/c it's not realistic, given "paycheck to paycheck", in this context, is thrown around very gratuitously.  When you see something that says nearly 2/3 of people making over $100K live "paycheck to paycheck" your bullshit meter should go off. Also, your bullshit meter should go off when the solitary source that gets quoted for this statistic is a "report" put out by a personal loan company.

"Paycheck to paycheck" means if you miss a paycheck, you're in deep shit. You can't make rent, your car gets repo'd, you have to take out a usurious loan or borrow from family...etc.

It doesn't mean "I would have to dig into my savings/carry a credit card balance for a bit" or "I make a lot of money, but I spend like a drunken sailor and don't save or invest."

 

 

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bernorange

bernorange 8346

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Hal Finney said:

... if QT is ending ...

From Saturday:

Quote

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan said the US central bank may need to slow down the pace at which it shrinks its portfolio of assets amid scarcer liquidity in financial markets.

While liquidity and bank reserves in the financial system are still more than ample, she said, individual banks could start to see liquidity constraints, especially as balances in the Fed’s overnight reverse repurchase facility fall. Logan said it’s now “appropriate” to begin discussing the parameters around a Fed decision to slow the pace of its balance-sheet runoff.
...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-06/logan-says-fed-should-slow-asset-runoff-as-reverse-repo-dwindles

 

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45512

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Captainant said:

Lulz noCR tho amirite?

No shit, Surly 101.  "No left wing politics, everything else, cool cool".

Fucking hypocrites.  Lather, rinse, repeat.

New policy of mine:  I'm negging every political post I see on this board, either side.

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26232

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, Hal Finney said:

No she can't. She is the worst.

Econ 101. She's concerned about supply, huh. What about demand?

She's happily endorsed policies that have artificially inflated demand by millions of "units" the last few years.

 

Never mind the politics of this post we don’t have enough housing. The biggest input to the demand side was the combination of 

1) Low rates (monetary stimulus by the Fed to encourage investment ahead of savings)

2) The 2001, 2003, and 2017 Tax cuts (Fiscal stimulus expressly designed to protect/inflate asset values) 

3) Millennials entering the workforce 

And 

4) The 2007-2010 financial crisis

Elizabeth Warren sure as shit hasn’t endorsed #2, so I’m not sure Elizabeth Warren has to do with the other 3.

but either way, local exclusionary zoning and bad planning standards prevented the infill boom that should have happened in response to the above. We need more housing.

IOW Go get your shinebox and take it to the CR.

Edited by Bozo_Casanova
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