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2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?

Reagan1k

By Reagan1k
in Business and Markets

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Bateshorn
Bateshorn

The only thing more predictable than the GOP running up huge deficits on tax cuts and military spending, is each one suddenly becoming horrified by deficit spending 5 mins after a Democrat is sworn in

PilotsError
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Immaculate Vibes

Immaculate Vibes 114

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Spoiler

Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari published an essay Friday in which he admitted an uncomfortable truth. He wrote that if the supply-chain disruptions don't resolve soon, the U.S. Federal Reserve may be forced to spur a recession. 

Kashkari pointed to the war in Ukraine and lockdowns in China's related to Covid-19 as reasons why supply chains haven't returned to normal as quickly as many expected. And if factories, shipping lines and commodity producers don't start operating more smoothly in the near future, "then we will likely have to push long-term real rates to a contractionary stance to bring supply and demand into balance," he added. In other words, such an outcome would force the Fed to raise its target for the federal funds rate, currently a range of 0.75% to 1%, well above the 3% that is priced into the futures market by February 2023. 
 

Although the thoughts come from a Fed official who doesn’t vote on monetary policy this year, they are still alarming and should be taken seriously. For one, they underscore the limits of the central bank’s ability to control key drivers of inflation right now, including a war that has upended oil supplies, causes prices for crude and energy overall to spike higher, and lockdowns in China that are preventing goods from getting to such companies as Adidas AGand Under Armour Inc., causing them to lower their earnings forecasts.

 

 

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Muny_Tex

Muny_Tex 315

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^^^How does the intentional/deliberate collapse of equities and assets plus lost access to capital (and corresponding mass unemployment) do dick to resolve “excess demand” for inelastic necessities (food, energy, shelter)…in midst of crisis level supply disruptions?

Does starvation/malnourishment now qualify as demand tapering?

Will they pat themselves on the back for “bringing things into balance” if enough infants die from lack of formula?

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15,452

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10 hours ago, Muny_Tex said:

^^^How does the intentional/deliberate collapse of equities and assets plus lost access to capital (and corresponding mass unemployment) do dick to resolve “excess demand” for inelastic necessities (food, energy, shelter)…in midst of crisis level supply disruptions?

Does starvation/malnourishment now qualify as demand tapering?

Will they pat themselves on the back for “bringing things into balance” if enough infants die from lack of formula?

You can’t demand as much food to eat if there’s not much to eat.  
 

giphy.gif?cid=5e214886soz958gpg3lvvpkd5x

Edited by Trey3216
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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9,973

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Fed observations/ciphering:


QE 4 ended March 2022 ($6 trillion total in MBS and treasury purchases). 
 

QT (quantitative tightening via liquidity drain) begins June 2022 ($47.5 billion per month) for 3 months then $95 billion per month starting September 2022 and ongoing. 
 

QE 5 remains a Fed option should conditions warrant. 
 

Good luck. 
 

 

E37B526F-9553-4A67-8031-407017D8715C.gif

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19,579

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3 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

Fed observations/ciphering:


QE 4 ended March 2022 ($6 trillion total in MBS and treasury purchases). 
 

QT (quantitative tightening via liquidity drain) begins June 2022 ($47.5 billion per month) for 3 months then $95 billion per month starting September 2022 and ongoing. 
 

QE 5 remains a Fed option should conditions warrant. 
 

Good luck. 
 

 

E37B526F-9553-4A67-8031-407017D8715C.gif

I love that chick from Tangled. She's the best Disney princess/that's the best Disney princess movie ever. 

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The underlings who work under Lee Cooperman are my heroes. For those watching CNBC the last 10 minutes you know what I’m talking about.

Cooperman ought to have a designated segment every day because he’s a) smart, and b) a workaholic train wreck that makes for entertaining TV and surely has a young contingent of traders clearly fucking with him. 

Also required should be that little bitch Andrew Ross Sorkin going at it with Kernan or Santelli sniveling about some SJW horse shit. 

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2 hours ago, Incredulity said:

I saw that segment with Cooperman.  Fucking hilarious.  Cherry on top was Copperman picking up the phone and shouting,” I’m on the goddamn television..” as they signed him off

Yeah heard that. At that point I’d called some people into my office in utter disbelief Cooperman didn’t shut his phone or instant messenger off. When he yelled that we were absolutely dying laughing. 

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15,452

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3 hours ago, Porterhouse said:

Yeah heard that. At that point I’d called some people into my office in utter disbelief Cooperman didn’t shut his phone or instant messenger off. When he yelled that we were absolutely dying laughing. 

I’m gonna have to find that.   The best thing that ever happened on that network, to this day, was Icahn vs Ackman… or Cramer’s epic “They’re nuts!!!  They’re nuts!!! They know nothing!!!” rant about the FED in ‘08

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clapclapclap

clapclapclap 9,000

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2 hours ago, Laxtonto said:

+0.2% over estimate…

 

season 11 episode 22 GIF

"Stop being opportunistic pessimists, it's becoming mostly peaceful inflation."

 

Edited by clapclapclap
I don't agree with his RE take, but that preceding tweet gets stuck to the primary one, because of twitter whatever
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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19,579

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40 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

Says the guy who STILL doesn't understand no-hitter jinxing.

It’s only a jinx if you say no hitter. It’s not a jinx if

you say “something interesting is going on out there blah blah blah” and mention it obliquely. 
the no hitter was broken up by someone on clutch fans saying JV has a no no going and then counting outs. 

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6,225

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Expected "respite" hit as prices in April kind of farted to near break-even.  But as said, a little worse than predicted (always "surprisingly" isn't it?  LoFkingL).  So the hammer peen was less pointy in April but still hit hard.

Upward pressures though have seemed to increase dramatically this month, so my guess is a larger climb next month.  In any event, it ain't goin' nowhere better (downward) for most of the rest of the year.  Gas esp. diesel (hoo-boy) prices out front shoulda told ya.  They can chainlink-trigger a lot of CPI hikes, and probably are, this month.

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On 5/11/2022 at 10:07 AM, Wulaw Horn said:

So David Burge doesn’t understand supply and demand. 

He’s an idiot that also looks like a penis. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19,579

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1 hour ago, Blotto said:

It goes from good to great when you decide to slash tax revenue at the same time. 

 

Total federal tax revenues were $3.32 trillion in 2017, $3.33 trillion in 2018, $3.46 trillion in 2019, $3.42 trillion in 2020, and $4.05 trillion in 2021.  So says top result on the googler.  I'm going to assume that's not fake news, but who the hell knows.  If you mean tax rate you should say tax rate.  

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