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2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?

Reagan1k

By Reagan1k
in Business and Markets

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On 6/19/2022 at 1:19 PM, slorch said:

I don't believe that at all.  Everything they do is an attempt to further fuck things up, only to follow it up with a goofy look, a shrug, and mumbling about "we're really trying."

No they aren't.  The evidence is overwhelming to the contrary.  So are the results.

Well, their real motivation is to do whatever it takes to retain votes.  So their actions are predictable and, in a very narrow sense, justified. 

What's more frustrating is the gullible dumbfucks on whom these tactics work. 

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Bateshorn
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The only thing more predictable than the GOP running up huge deficits on tax cuts and military spending, is each one suddenly becoming horrified by deficit spending 5 mins after a Democrat is sworn in

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Lol any of this russian embargo has surely proven feckless

the indians and chinese have bought extra quantities of russian crude, and now making record profit off refined exports. The sokol is trading at $10 below wti, but going out in high volume. 
 

poorer countries are going to want their energy at any price they can get. the spice must flow. 

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statsman

statsman 5423

Posted
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1 hour ago, Incredulity said:

Remember when the line was, "the big mistake of the depression was not doing enough stimulus".

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/05/we-can-prevent-a-great-depression-itll-take-10-trillion/611749/

 

I remember.

I thought they decided the big US mistake (why the US had a Great Depression while the rest of the world just had a depression) was too much government intervention. I read an article that the government projects were so big that they forced private industry and contractors out. 

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gmr548

gmr548 16500

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Remember when the line was, "the big mistake of the depression was not doing enough stimulus".
 
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/05/we-can-prevent-a-great-depression-itll-take-10-trillion/611749/
 
I remember.

I know you’re definitely not trying to be intentionally deceptive, but the argument here is that there was not enough stimulus during the Great Recession and immediately thereafter, not the Great Depression.

I’m not sure what point you’re trying to make either way.

I thought they decided the big US mistake (why the US had a Great Depression while the rest of the world just had a depression) was too much government intervention. I read an article that the government projects were so big that they forced private industry and contractors out. 

I don’t want to CR this, but as a student of history I’m really curious as to who “they” is here.
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1 minute ago, Cheeseweasel said:

China is buying all of Russia's oil at record prices. Boycotts only work if everyone plays.

That's why the soaring oil prices don't make a ton of sense to me given that so much of it was blamed on Russia. A premium? Sure. But continually making new highs? russian oil is going somewhere to fill demand. 

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Cheeseweasel

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5 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

That's why the soaring oil prices don't make a ton of sense to me given that so much of it was blamed on Russia

Short term, commodity prices don't follow the supply/demand curve. They spike/drop on speculation. Not to mention that OPEC puts their thumb on the scale.

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48 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Short term, commodity prices don't follow the supply/demand curve. They spike/drop on speculation. Not to mention that OPEC puts their thumb on the scale.

posted dupe to wrong thread

less than half of the open positions on west texas intermediate are from 'producers/consumers'.  the other are institution/cta/traders, so a lot of the volume and pricing action are just from speculators, and doesnt result in settlement and physical delivery

 

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statsman

statsman 5423

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10 hours ago, gmr548 said:


I know you’re definitely not trying to be intentionally deceptive, but the argument here is that there was not enough stimulus during the Great Recession and immediately thereafter, not the Great Depression.

I’m not sure what point you’re trying to make either way.


I don’t want to CR this, but as a student of history I’m really curious as to who “they” is here.

I went back and looked- the Amity Schlaes book for one and the Burton Folsom book for another. 
There is a debate about the New Deal, and your perspective is probably influenced by how you deal about state planning and control of the economy (mine is). Central planning had a lot more fans 100 years ago - the idea was that central planning was the key to unleashing increased prosperity for all. Now, even advocates dial that back to “central planning is key to limiting wealth and income inequities”. 

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Incredulity

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Posted
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10 hours ago, gmr548 said:


I know you’re definitely not trying to be intentionally deceptive, but the argument here is that there was not enough stimulus during the Great Recession and immediately thereafter, not the Great Depression.

I’m not sure what point you’re trying to make either way.


I don’t want to CR this, but as a student of history I’m really curious as to who “they” is here.

from the Atlantic article.

Quote

First, there’s inflation, the risk that too much money injected into the economy will cause prices on everyday goods to skyrocket. No one can say for sure if the U.S. is due for an inflation shock on the other side of this crisis. But for the moment, the U.S. is dealing with the very opposite problem—the risk of deflation. This week, the Labor Department reported that one measure of consumer prices, called “core inflation” (which does not include energy and other volatile indexes), suffered its largest drop in the history of the statistic. Inflation hawks might think they’re preventing some future crisis by withholding government aid right now. But you don’t let a drought destroy your crops because you’re afraid about some future flood.

 

I Love It Reaction GIF by Magic: The Gathering

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WBT

WBT 20418

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On 6/22/2022 at 8:09 AM, Cheeseweasel said:

China is buying all of Russia's oil at record prices. Boycotts only work if everyone plays.

I thought at least early on it was reported that as the only willing buyer China was bending Russia over on price

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15325

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12 hours ago, WBT said:

I thought at least early on it was reported that as the only willing buyer China was bending Russia over on price

Getting bent over at high prices is much more profitable than getting bent over at low prices.   That’s why your mom stopped doing cam work and went big time, remember?

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Shipping coming down, many commodities coming down, gas/oil seem to be holding stable (short-term), rising rates put the brakes on homebuying, market down 25% which should reign in wealth effect.

If you're worried about inflation, there are a lot of signs pointing in a positive direction for the first time in a while.

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Immaculate Vibes

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Posted
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8 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

were those really neg reps for sourcing a data tweet from zerohedge or is there prior history...?

 

richmond fed came in a lot worse than expected.  

Prior history. 
 

Some people really hate me for CR reasons. 
 

Penelope is just one of the more deranged ones. Follows me around. 
 

12 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Shipping coming down, many commodities coming down, gas/oil seem to be holding stable (short-term), rising rates put the brakes on homebuying, market down 25% which should reign in wealth effect.

If you're worried about inflation, there are a lot of signs pointing in a positive direction for the first time in a while.

Agree. 
 

Shipping and commodities coming down is signaling slowing demand globally. The question is where is the floor that’s set by decreased supply in commodities, especially oil and gas. 

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Parliament

Parliament 14133

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Storm the Field said:

Shipping prices still way above pre-COVID but starting to come back down to earth.

FWVuiAqWYAEpDZI?format=jpg&name=large

 

29 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Shipping coming down, many commodities coming down, gas/oil seem to be holding stable (short-term), rising rates put the brakes on homebuying, market down 25% which should reign in wealth effect.

If you're worried about inflation, there are a lot of signs pointing in a positive direction for the first time in a while.

How long until that starts showing up in the CPI and PPI?  Q3?

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1 minute ago, Parliament said:

 

How long until that starts showing up in the CPI and PPI?  Q3?

If I knew that...

My guess is that we get one or two "hot" readings and then things start to peak and turnover. But I'd guess that the rate is still historically higher than normal for the foreseeable future.

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