2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?

[PilotsError 2,282]

[Hefeweizen 5,307]

Nice contribution.  Easy add to the ignore list.

[TxTower 650]

Just stay in your Cloak Room safe place if you find the real world so intolerable.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

Good game, well played Mr. Powell. 

[phdhorn 6,224]

Core inflation continued to inch down in May - 4.9% to 4.7%.

Not wonderful, but a lot better than going up.

So, May core down a bit, CPI up.  Kinda a wash.

 

[tbone_ 14,021]

That’s good news. The capital markets need to see evidence that it’s at least not a runaway train.

[Upgrayedd 5,805]

5 minutes ago, tbone_ said:

That’s good news. The capital markets need to see evidence that it’s at least not a runaway train.

I’m not seeing the runaway price pressures in building costs lately.  You?

Theft still an issue.  Got a spare Square D 1,200 Amp 20 meter-socket entrance section lying around?  

[Hefeweizen 5,307]

54 minutes ago, Upgrayedd said:

I’m not seeing the runaway price pressures in building costs lately.  You?

Theft still an issue.  Got a spare Square D 1,200 Amp 20 meter-socket entrance section lying around?  

What we’re seeing is scarcity in certain items causing premium pricing.  For example large diameter pipe.  I had to switch some 24 inch to 30 inch because that was a six to eight month delta on availability.

 We’re also prepaying GCs to stockpile pipe and fittings so that a) we don’t pay more and b) to make sure it’s there when the trenches are cut.

Anything with a PLC is turbo fucked.  Control panels are definitely the first submittal in and out on my projects.

[Storm the Field 5,273]

WTI (-9%), nat gas (-28%) and gasoline (-14%) will all end the month down. That should knock some of the wind out of the readings for June.

[Cheeseweasel 26,437]

1 hour ago, Upgrayedd said:

Got a spare Square D 1,200 Amp 20 meter-socket entrance section lying around?

I just found one at this construction site I pilfer from. I'll sell it to you for threefiddy.

[tbone_ 14,021]

I’m not seeing the runaway price pressures in building costs lately.  You?
Theft still an issue.  Got a spare Square D 1,200 Amp 20 meter-socket entrance section lying around?  

We’re hearing signs but hard to tell for sure. We have 3 new apartment projects going to GMP and buyout over 2H of this year so we’ll know for sure soon.

But I did get a budget refresh in May on one that was up $19M since December. 50% from first budget 13 months prior. Same scope.

[babysdaddy 2,718]

34 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

WTI (-9%), nat gas (-28%) and gasoline (-14%) will all end the month down. That should knock some of the wind out of the readings for June.

month over month, yes, but yoy these readings are replacing June 2021 when wti and nat gas were at 75 and 3.60, respectively.

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

 

[Upgrayedd 5,805]

1 hour ago, Hefeweizen said:

What we’re seeing is scarcity in certain items causing premium pricing.  For example large diameter pipe.  I had to switch some 24 inch to 30 inch because that was a six to eight month delta on availability.

 We’re also prepaying GCs to stockpile pipe and fittings so that a) we don’t pay more and b) to make sure it’s there when the trenches are cut.

Anything with a PLC is turbo fucked.  Control panels are definitely the first submittal in and out on my projects.

Yup.  Aggressive management upfront on procurement is the key.  On a very large deal here in SD where in exchange for the hold-my-place-in-line deposit, GC is requiring subs to sign a form "in exchange for the deposits, no further escalation on these items."  We'll see if that holds.  Agree that anything with a chip goes to the front of the line.

51 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

I just found one at this construction site I pilfer from. I'll sell it to you for threefiddy.

I'll put you in touch with the GC/electrician.  They may be motivated after hearing me recite the LD clause from the contract yesterday.

38 minutes ago, tbone_ said:

We’re hearing signs but hard to tell for sure. We have 3 new apartment projects going to GMP and buyout over 2H of this year so we’ll know for sure soon.

But I did get a budget refresh in May on one that was up $19M since December. 50% from first budget 13 months prior. Same scope.

Seeing more deals with actual escalation line items up front.  Rent increases appear to be supporting the models - for now.  YMMV.  Good luck!  

Side note - I bet our paths have crossed and we don't even know it.

[Hefeweizen 5,307]

Saw this morning on Bloomberg that fireworks are up 30 percent yoy and demand is still up, so clearly no issue with too much cash floating around.

[bernorange 8,348]

I saw a news report on tv the other night (local Houston news) with interviews from fireworks retailers.  They said there was a severe supply chain shock (can't source product from China, shipping costs have more than quadrupled if they do find some).  They said sales were down.  They said average sale was down something like 50% from normal.  Not volume of sales (ie. Number of orders) but value of sale (peeps that are buying, are buying less than previous years).  Economic conditions and drought conditions (fire hazard) eere also cited as factors by retail customers that were interviewed.  FWIW.

[Cheeseweasel 26,437]

17 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

Saw this morning on Bloomberg that fireworks are up 30 percent yoy and demand is still up, so clearly no issue with too much cash floating around.

[phdhorn 6,224]

Atlanta Fed about to hit with not good report,  2nd quarter contraction (-1%) = recession.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2022/07/01/us-recession-already-six-months-old-says-fed-model/?sh=2c1a736e3628

The "good news" is that it's likely been in recession (well furking duh!) for the past 1/2 year.  So it might ease up soon.

I'll let e'rrybody here sort it out later.

[Hefeweizen 5,307]

14 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Atlanta Fed about to hit with not good report,  2nd quarter contraction (-1%) = recession.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2022/07/01/us-recession-already-six-months-old-says-fed-model/?sh=2c1a736e3628

The "good news" is that it's likely been in recession (well furking duh!) for the past 1/2 year.  So it might ease up soon.

I'll let e'rrybody here sort it out later.

One of the weirdest recessionary periods I’ve ever experienced.  I wasn’t around for the 70s except as a kid wearing terrible Astros tshirts though.

 

 Housing market still nuts, no one can find construction materials, cars flying off lots, and low unemployment… where is the contraction happening?

[Cheeseweasel 26,437]

1 hour ago, Hefeweizen said:

where is the contraction happening?

It's a self-fulfilling prophecy. "Things are getting bad" language causes businesses / people to put off major purchases. Don't be fooled by "businesses can't find people". 

Businesses can't find minimum wage workers because they are all making $18 bucks an hour working at Amazon, etc. Sorry McDonalds.

[Hefeweizen 5,307]

If they can’t find people does it matter why?  I guess other than opening up immigration or getting some olds back in the workforce I’m wondering where Mickey D and Walmart will find the workers, much less the dishwashing staff at the restaurant.

[Cheeseweasel 26,437]

8 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

 I guess other than opening up immigration or getting some olds back in the workforce I’m wondering where Mickey D and Walmart will find the workers, much less the dishwashing staff at the restaurant.

When the layoffs begin...

[tbone_ 14,021]

In this environment for some reason I’m much less concerned with gdp.

Inflation needs to chill though.

[gmr548 16,511]

4 hours ago, Cheeseweasel said:

It's a self-fulfilling prophecy.

That it is. Always made me laugh that academic economics assumes a market of purely rational actors.

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

2 hours ago, tbone_ said:

In this environment for some reason I’m much less concerned with gdp.

Inflation needs to chill though.

Now revised prediction to -2.1%
 

 

[Parliament 14,134]

For reference, it shrank 1.4% in Q1?

[Cheeseweasel 26,437]

8 minutes ago, Parliament said:

For reference, it shrank 1.4% in Q1?

In it's defense, it was in the pool.

[bschoolprof 6,232]

[Post Oak 20,184]

 

[Fastbreak 3,959]

 

What is 4.5 inches now? Asking for a friend.

[Trey3216 15,325]

On 7/1/2022 at 3:37 PM, Parliament said:

For reference, it shrank 1.4% in Q1?

And the Atlanta Fed GDPNow final estimate for q1 was .7.  If we have a similar overestimate this quarter, we’re talking really ugly numbers.    

Edited July 4, 2022 by Trey3216

[Trey3216 15,325]

On 7/1/2022 at 3:37 PM, Parliament said:

For reference, it shrank 1.4% in Q1?

And the Atlanta Fed GDPNow final estimate for q1 was .7.  If we have a similar overestimate this quarter, we’re talking really ugly numbers.    

[Guest]

Oil about to hit $100 for the first time in weeks. 

Anecdotally, passed by the outlet mall on Sunday on the outskirts of Houston. There ain't a recession. Also, people don't give a fuck about gas prices (see me driving my gas-guzzling SUV at 70 and getting passed like I'm standing still.)

Edited July 5, 2022 by FirstTimeCaller

[Aqua Buddha 14,509]

1 hour ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Oil about to hit $100 for the first time in weeks. 

Anecdotally, passed by the outlet mall on Sunday on the outskirts of Houston. There ain't a recession. Also, people don't give a fuck about gas prices (see me driving my gas-guzzling SUV at 70 and getting passed like I'm standing still.)

Was in NYC last week.  Times Square full, everything on Fifth Ave full (line for the Lego store around the block), shows full, restaurants full.  No one got the memo about how we're supposed to be in a recession.

Edited July 5, 2022 by Aqua Buddha

[DaysOff 7,851]

Oil about to hit $100 for the first time in weeks. 
Anecdotally, passed by the outlet mall on Sunday on the outskirts of Houston. There ain't a recession. Also, people don't give a fuck about gas prices (see me driving my gas-guzzling SUV at 70 and getting passed like I'm standing still.)

The airlines are going to possibly post their best single quarters since Orville and Wilbur, but RECESSION!

[Neonmoon 38,127]

41 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

No one got the memo about how we're supposed to be in a recession.

[Snake Diggity 4,614]

Could this be a “supply recession” where GDP was stunted by supply shocks?  If so I would think the fallout from that would be relatively mild, meaning not much increase in unemployment and a fairly quick recovery.

[StruggleBus 3,922]

On 6/27/2022 at 9:24 PM, Immaculate Vibes said:

 

[Guest]

Super idea Newsom. 

I’m trying to decide who needs to get it more, Kayla Tausche or Cameron Dawson?

[StassneyHorn 6,538]

Thank you California for returning taxpayers money.

[ChickenSandwich 9,798]

11 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Thank you California for returning taxpayers money.

What percentage eligible for the check are paying income and federal taxes?

[Incredulity 11,564]

 

[Incredulity 11,564]

48 minutes ago, ChickenSandwich said:

What percentage eligible for the check are paying income and federal taxes?

[StassneyHorn 6,538]

1 hour ago, ChickenSandwich said:

What percentage eligible for the check are paying income and federal taxes?

Tell me? I’m not doing your work.

23 million Californians are getting their tax dollars back and that should be celebrated.

A breakdown of eligibility for the maximum payout:

• $350: Individuals who earn less than $75,000 per year
• $700: Couples who file jointly and earn less than $150,000 per year
• $350: Additional payout for the above families who have at least one dependent

Income limits to qualify for the minimum payout:

• $200: Individuals who earn up to $250,000 per year
• $400: Couples who file jointly and earn less than $500,000 per year
• $200: Additional payout for the above families who have at least one dependent

Edited July 5, 2022 by StassneyHorn

[Sbbruin 21,733]

On 6/27/2022 at 7:24 PM, Immaculate Vibes said:

 

[Wulaw Horn 18,980]

1 hour ago, Sbbruin said:

You and your wife don’t make five hundy?  Sad. 

[Guest]

Oil at $95. If things keep up, I think we could see a significant dip in inflation. 

Of course, that assumes no more major shocks... meaning the chance is 0.0%. I'm sure Russia is going to attack Europe with a Covid bomb or some shit.

[StruggleBus 3,922]

On 7/5/2022 at 7:44 PM, Wulaw Horn said:

You and your wife don’t make five hundy?  Sad. 

Five hundy is the new one hundy.

[woohorn 1,131]

Could this be a “supply recession” where GDP was stunted by supply shocks?  If so I would think the fallout from that would be relatively mild, meaning not much increase in unemployment and a fairly quick recovery.

So I shouldn't have moved 100% of my IRA into Dollar General $DG?

[Immaculate Vibes 114]