Jump to content

2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?

Reagan1k

By Reagan1k
in Business and Markets

 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 7.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

52-80
52-80
Bateshorn
Bateshorn

The only thing more predictable than the GOP running up huge deficits on tax cuts and military spending, is each one suddenly becoming horrified by deficit spending 5 mins after a Democrat is sworn in

PilotsError
PilotsError

Posted Images

Upgrayedd

Upgrayedd 5885

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, tbone_ said:

That’s good news. The capital markets need to see evidence that it’s at least not a runaway train.

I’m not seeing the runaway price pressures in building costs lately.  You?

Theft still an issue.  Got a spare Square D 1,200 Amp 20 meter-socket entrance section lying around?  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Hefeweizen

Hefeweizen 5444

Posted
Posted
54 minutes ago, Upgrayedd said:

I’m not seeing the runaway price pressures in building costs lately.  You?

Theft still an issue.  Got a spare Square D 1,200 Amp 20 meter-socket entrance section lying around?  

What we’re seeing is scarcity in certain items causing premium pricing.  For example large diameter pipe.  I had to switch some 24 inch to 30 inch because that was a six to eight month delta on availability.

 We’re also prepaying GCs to stockpile pipe and fittings so that a) we don’t pay more and b) to make sure it’s there when the trenches are cut.

Anything with a PLC is turbo fucked.  Control panels are definitely the first submittal in and out on my projects.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
tbone_

tbone_ 14438

Posted
Posted
I’m not seeing the runaway price pressures in building costs lately.  You?
Theft still an issue.  Got a spare Square D 1,200 Amp 20 meter-socket entrance section lying around?  

We’re hearing signs but hard to tell for sure. We have 3 new apartment projects going to GMP and buyout over 2H of this year so we’ll know for sure soon.

But I did get a budget refresh in May on one that was up $19M since December. 50% from first budget 13 months prior. Same scope.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
babysdaddy

babysdaddy 2731

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

WTI (-9%), nat gas (-28%) and gasoline (-14%) will all end the month down. That should knock some of the wind out of the readings for June.

month over month, yes, but yoy these readings are replacing June 2021 when wti and nat gas were at 75 and 3.60, respectively.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Upgrayedd

Upgrayedd 5885

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Hefeweizen said:

What we’re seeing is scarcity in certain items causing premium pricing.  For example large diameter pipe.  I had to switch some 24 inch to 30 inch because that was a six to eight month delta on availability.

 We’re also prepaying GCs to stockpile pipe and fittings so that a) we don’t pay more and b) to make sure it’s there when the trenches are cut.

Anything with a PLC is turbo fucked.  Control panels are definitely the first submittal in and out on my projects.

Yup.  Aggressive management upfront on procurement is the key.  On a very large deal here in SD where in exchange for the hold-my-place-in-line deposit, GC is requiring subs to sign a form "in exchange for the deposits, no further escalation on these items."  We'll see if that holds.  Agree that anything with a chip goes to the front of the line.

51 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

I just found one at this construction site I pilfer from. I'll sell it to you for threefiddy.

I'll put you in touch with the GC/electrician.  They may be motivated after hearing me recite the LD clause from the contract yesterday.

38 minutes ago, tbone_ said:


We’re hearing signs but hard to tell for sure. We have 3 new apartment projects going to GMP and buyout over 2H of this year so we’ll know for sure soon.

But I did get a budget refresh in May on one that was up $19M since December. 50% from first budget 13 months prior. Same scope.

Seeing more deals with actual escalation line items up front.  Rent increases appear to be supporting the models - for now.  YMMV.  Good luck!  

Side note - I bet our paths have crossed and we don't even know it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
bernorange

bernorange 8385

Posted
Posted

I saw a news report on tv the other night (local Houston news) with interviews from fireworks retailers.  They said there was a severe supply chain shock (can't source product from China, shipping costs have more than quadrupled if they do find some).  They said sales were down.  They said average sale was down something like 50% from normal.  Not volume of sales (ie. Number of orders) but value of sale (peeps that are buying, are buying less than previous years).  Economic conditions and drought conditions (fire hazard) eere also cited as factors by retail customers that were interviewed.  FWIW.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
phdhorn

phdhorn 6225

Posted
Posted

Atlanta Fed about to hit with not good report,  2nd quarter contraction (-1%) = recession.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2022/07/01/us-recession-already-six-months-old-says-fed-model/?sh=2c1a736e3628

The "good news" is that it's likely been in recession (well furking duh!) for the past 1/2 year.  So it might ease up soon.

I'll let e'rrybody here sort it out later.

  • Hook 'Em 2
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Hefeweizen

Hefeweizen 5444

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Atlanta Fed about to hit with not good report,  2nd quarter contraction (-1%) = recession.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2022/07/01/us-recession-already-six-months-old-says-fed-model/?sh=2c1a736e3628

The "good news" is that it's likely been in recession (well furking duh!) for the past 1/2 year.  So it might ease up soon.

I'll let e'rrybody here sort it out later.

One of the weirdest recessionary periods I’ve ever experienced.  I wasn’t around for the 70s except as a kid wearing terrible Astros tshirts though.

 

 Housing market still nuts, no one can find construction materials, cars flying off lots, and low unemployment… where is the contraction happening?

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Cheeseweasel

Cheeseweasel 26439

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Hefeweizen said:

where is the contraction happening?

It's a self-fulfilling prophecy. "Things are getting bad" language causes businesses / people to put off major purchases. Don't be fooled by "businesses can't find people". 

Businesses can't find minimum wage workers because they are all making $18 bucks an hour working at Amazon, etc. Sorry McDonalds.

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Hefeweizen

Hefeweizen 5444

Posted
Posted

If they can’t find people does it matter why?  I guess other than opening up immigration or getting some olds back in the workforce I’m wondering where Mickey D and Walmart will find the workers, much less the dishwashing staff at the restaurant.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Trey3216

Trey3216 15452

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 7/1/2022 at 3:37 PM, Parliament said:

For reference, it shrank 1.4% in Q1?

And the Atlanta Fed GDPNow final estimate for q1 was .7.  If we have a similar overestimate this quarter, we’re talking really ugly numbers.    

Edited by Trey3216
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted (edited)

Oil about to hit $100 for the first time in weeks. 

Anecdotally, passed by the outlet mall on Sunday on the outskirts of Houston. There ain't a recession. Also, people don't give a fuck about gas prices (see me driving my gas-guzzling SUV at 70 and getting passed like I'm standing still.)

Edited by FirstTimeCaller
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14804

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Oil about to hit $100 for the first time in weeks. 

Anecdotally, passed by the outlet mall on Sunday on the outskirts of Houston. There ain't a recession. Also, people don't give a fuck about gas prices (see me driving my gas-guzzling SUV at 70 and getting passed like I'm standing still.)

Was in NYC last week.  Times Square full, everything on Fifth Ave full (line for the Lego store around the block), shows full, restaurants full.  No one got the memo about how we're supposed to be in a recession.

Edited by Aqua Buddha
Link to comment
Share on other sites
DaysOff

DaysOff 8201

Posted
Posted
Oil about to hit $100 for the first time in weeks. 
Anecdotally, passed by the outlet mall on Sunday on the outskirts of Houston. There ain't a recession. Also, people don't give a fuck about gas prices (see me driving my gas-guzzling SUV at 70 and getting passed like I'm standing still.)

The airlines are going to possibly post their best single quarters since Orville and Wilbur, but RECESSION!
Link to comment
Share on other sites
StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6767

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, ChickenSandwich said:

What percentage eligible for the check are paying income and federal taxes?

Tell me? I’m not doing your work.

23 million Californians are getting their tax dollars back and that should be celebrated.

A breakdown of eligibility for the maximum payout:

  • $350: Individuals who earn less than $75,000 per year
  • $700: Couples who file jointly and earn less than $150,000 per year
  • $350: Additional payout for the above families who have at least one dependent

Income limits to qualify for the minimum payout:

  • $200: Individuals who earn up to $250,000 per year
  • $400: Couples who file jointly and earn less than $500,000 per year
  • $200: Additional payout for the above families who have at least one dependent
Edited by StassneyHorn
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

Oil at $95. If things keep up, I think we could see a significant dip in inflation. 

Of course, that assumes no more major shocks... meaning the chance is 0.0%. I'm sure Russia is going to attack Europe with a Covid bomb or some shit.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
woohorn

woohorn 1131

Posted
Posted
Could this be a “supply recession” where GDP was stunted by supply shocks?  If so I would think the fallout from that would be relatively mild, meaning not much increase in unemployment and a fairly quick recovery.
So I shouldn't have moved 100% of my IRA into Dollar General $DG?
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing


Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business and Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Subscribe!... Donate!... Advertise... COOKIE MONSTER!

×
×
  • Create New...