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2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?

Reagan1k

By Reagan1k
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Humble Beast

Humble Beast 258

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Just heard an interesting timeline laid out for how inflation could play out over the next 6-12 months. 
 

US economic data seems to indicate that the economy is rolling over and thus inflation should come down to the 6-7% range. 
 

The next shock to cause a bump in inflation will be related to the European gas crisis. As we get to November and December and there are real natural gas shortages due to Russia cutting off supplies, then a lot of European and especially German industry will have to be curtailed. Unfortunately this will cause a new supply chain shock throughout western economies akin to the Covid lockdowns. We could then see a bump in inflation to double digits. 
 

I’m not sure what to make of the prediction numbers wise, but the reasoning makes a lot of sense. It doesn’t matter if Covid shuts down your factories or if it’s a lack of energy. Same problems result. And Germany specifically is quite integrated in western supply chains. Damn. 
 

And to top it off there’s no reason outside of benevolence for Putin to not pursue this strategy. They’ve already been pushed mostly out of the global economy by sanctions so less concern about global supply chains. He obviously isn’t too concerned about the day to day of his own population anyway. Plus you get a nice boost in inflation that will further challenge highly indebted Western nations. This is bad. 
 

I guess something to watch. Hope it doesn’t transpire in that sequence. 

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Bateshorn
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The only thing more predictable than the GOP running up huge deficits on tax cuts and military spending, is each one suddenly becoming horrified by deficit spending 5 mins after a Democrat is sworn in

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Ag with kids

Ag with kids 581

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

Bozo's quote was 

Do you deny that it is currenly de rigeur among conservative pastors to, among other things, advocate the execution of homosexuals?

Bozo's point was not even hyperbolic.  It's not schtick.

GTFO of your right-wing disinformation hole.

There may be a few nutsos out there saying things like that (like those idiots at Westboro Baptist)...but there's 380k churches in the US...it's not "de rigeur" by ANY means...so, YES, I deny that.

And getting out of "my right-wing disinformation hole" is amusing.  I'm here on this website that has become quite left wing.  I don't post on CR because conservatives can get neg repped to death (well, purgatory) there...But, I browse this site.  I listen to the POTUS channel (center left) on Sirius almost exclusively...

I watch essentially ZERO news on TV, so can't "Fox News" me.

How much do you get out of your hole?

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troph

troph 24562

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Ag with kids said:

There may be a few nutsos out there saying things like that (like those idiots at Westboro Baptist)...but there's 380k churches in the US...it's not "de rigeur" by ANY means...so, YES, I deny that.

And getting out of "my right-wing disinformation hole" is amusing.  I'm here on this website that has become quite left wing.  I don't post on CR because conservatives can get neg repped to death (well, purgatory) there...But, I browse this site.  I listen to the POTUS channel (center left) on Sirius almost exclusively...

I watch essentially ZERO news on TV, so can't "Fox News" me.

How much do you get out of your hole?

death, prison, inability to seek and receive routine medical care, inability to care for your kids, having kids taken away and inability to love who you love legally without fear of retribution and with the protection of the rule of law are one and the same. So you have zero credibility on these issues because your right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness is not in jeopardy.  
 

Signed, Tranny Lesbian with Kids. 

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troph

troph 24562

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Posted (edited)

Let me be really fucking clear, in 2022 ensuring the right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness should not be denied to ANYONE. That’s decent not left wing. 

Let me be really fucking clear, in 2022 we should not be debating the veracity of climate change, we should be doing everything we possibly can to curtail it. That’s smart not left wing.

the rest is anti-intellectual, gas lighting cultural wars and idiotic selfishness. The rest is bullshit.

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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 31272

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Ag with kids said:

There may be a few nutsos out there saying things like that (like those idiots at Westboro Baptist)...but there's 380k churches in the US...it's not "de rigeur" by ANY means...so, YES, I deny that.

And getting out of "my right-wing disinformation hole" is amusing.  I'm here on this website that has become quite left wing.  I don't post on CR because conservatives can get neg repped to death (well, purgatory) there...But, I browse this site.  I listen to the POTUS channel (center left) on Sirius almost exclusively...

I watch essentially ZERO news on TV, so can't "Fox News" me.

How much do you get out of your hole?

Westboro Baptist is the old news.  I posted somewhere six separate and recent links to people preaching from the pulpit about execution of homosexuals and talking about it on right wing "TV" and at "freedom of religion" conferences attended by Ted Cruz and Josh Hawley.  Two or three of em rat chere in Texas and one in Tarrant County, Hurst, no less.  A place I am rather sure that you are quite familiar with.

As a backsliding Christian, I'm not about to paint all churches with that brush, but Bozo didn't either.  

This website has become pro-democracy.

 

 

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Ag with kids

Ag with kids 581

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Westboro Baptist is the old news.  I posted somewhere six separate and recent links to people preaching from the pulpit about execution of homosexuals and talking about it on right wing "TV" and at "freedom of religion" conferences attended by Ted Cruz and Josh Hawley.  Two or three of em rat chere in Texas and one in Tarrant County, Hurst, no less.  A place I am rather sure that you are quite familiar with.

As a backsliding Christian, I'm not about to paint all churches with that brush, but Bozo didn't either.  

This website has become pro-democracy.

 

 

Oh...Well there you go...

Six...out of 380,000.  Yep.  That's definitely NOT what's "de rigueur" in the religious world.  Seriously...the people doing that are outliers.

BTW...I'm not really familiar with many churches.  Oh, and I've been a deist for 20+ years...we don't need no steenking shurshes!

And, YES, this website has become quite far left.  The fact that you don't realize that may mean you need to leave YOUR left wing bubble.  I'm going to stop there so this shit doesn't get CRed though....

So...to get this whole shit back on track...this thread is about INFLATION...so I'm going to get back to that.

I actually agree with @Bozo_Casanova about the extra fucking money being dumped into the economy being a large cause of this inflation.

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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 31272

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16 minutes ago, Ag with kids said:

And, YES, this website has become quite far left.  The fact that you don't realize that may mean you need to leave YOUR left wing bubble.  I'm going to stop there so this shit doesn't get CRed though....

 

The same people that are actually "leftist" have been here all along.  The rest of us are fucking disgusted with Republicans, who are so fucking disgusting that it calls into question nearly everything they ever advocated.

Signed, 35-year Republican voter and still registered Republican (who's too lazy to change it cuz it don't make a shit).

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Ag with kids

Ag with kids 581

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21 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

The same people that are actually "leftist" have been here all along.  The rest of us are fucking disgusted with Republicans, who are so fucking disgusting that it calls into question nearly everything they ever advocated.

Signed, 35-year Republican voter and still registered Republican (who's too lazy to change it cuz it don't make a shit).

No...this site has gone far left...

I was on Hornfans...then Shaggy....and now Surly...the transformation has been quite obvious.  The fact that you don't see it, is interesting...perhaps, you've gone left, too...

Guess you're not in Texas, though...

 

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Humble Beast

Humble Beast 258

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, Vegas64 said:

Anyways, what about how inflation is hurting small town BBQ? That sucks.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/letter-from-the-southwest/the-true-costs-of-inflation-in-small-town-texas

I’ve competed In the Wild Hog Festival so this hits close to home. 
 

But seriously, elevated gas/diesel and food prices disproportionately affect agriculture and rural communities. 

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Humble Beast

Humble Beast 258

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20 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

Back to inflation - the strong USD created by the Fed is forcing other central banks to raise rates or face imminent annihilation via inflation. 

Yes dollar strengthening is causing major currency problems. Especially in countries that are energy importers. See EU, Japan. As they have to pay more to import energy their current account deficit increases. That puts negative pressure on their currencies.
 

So much of this stuff goes back to energy. Hopefully it serves as a wake up call.
 

India is another having issues. 
 

 

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Humble Beast

Humble Beast 258

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5 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

also see sri lanka.  

Yep the small ones will definitely get rekt. I bring up Eu and Japan to show how bad it is even for enormous currencies. 
 

Japan is a little different because they’re way down the line of yield curve control and it’s getting harder to keep things under wraps, but energy is playing a big part. 

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gsoda3

gsoda3 3236

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11 minutes ago, Humble Beast said:

Yep the small ones will definitely get rekt. I bring up Eu and Japan to show how bad it is even for enormous currencies. 
 

Japan is a little different because they’re way down the line of yield curve control and it’s getting harder to keep things under wraps, but energy is playing a big part. 

funny thing is they're looking at it in a positive light.  this is probably the best external impetus for stable future inflation they've had in 20 years.  so while it hurts right now kuroda's taking a longer term view and saying this is good.  but you're right in that this is an enormous currency risk messing with a top 5 economy.  

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UT_OB1

UT_OB1 2200

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11 hours ago, immamac said:

I mean it was one shithead way out of line and the board moderating itself. The report button isn't for hurt feelings after you say some massively stupid shit and get tarred and feathered by the community. 

What comment did I make?

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Humble Beast

Humble Beast 258

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23 hours ago, Humble Beast said:

Just heard an interesting timeline laid out for how inflation could play out over the next 6-12 months. 
 

US economic data seems to indicate that the economy is rolling over and thus inflation should come down to the 6-7% range. 
 

The next shock to cause a bump in inflation will be related to the European gas crisis. As we get to November and December and there are real natural gas shortages due to Russia cutting off supplies, then a lot of European and especially German industry will have to be curtailed. Unfortunately this will cause a new supply chain shock throughout western economies akin to the Covid lockdowns. We could then see a bump in inflation to double digits. 
 

I’m not sure what to make of the prediction numbers wise, but the reasoning makes a lot of sense. It doesn’t matter if Covid shuts down your factories or if it’s a lack of energy. Same problems result. And Germany specifically is quite integrated in western supply chains. Damn. 
 

And to top it off there’s no reason outside of benevolence for Putin to not pursue this strategy. They’ve already been pushed mostly out of the global economy by sanctions so less concern about global supply chains. He obviously isn’t too concerned about the day to day of his own population anyway. Plus you get a nice boost in inflation that will further challenge highly indebted Western nations. This is bad. 
 

I guess something to watch. Hope it doesn’t transpire in that sequence. 

https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-basf-de-idUSL5N2VY7L2

 

comments from March from BASF ceo concerning banning imports of gas from Russia. They would have to completely shut down production if gas availability falls below half of their usual needs.
 

Russia halting gas exports will obviously do the same thing to German economy. Ripple effects non quantifiable ahead of time. 

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45557

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Posted (edited)
14 hours ago, Ag with kids said:

No...this site has gone far left...

No.  It hasn't.  You saying it doesn't make it true.  

The Republican party has gone far right.  Some of them -- many of those on surly -- have abandoned the Republican party because they don't abide that move.  They didn't move so much left as they failed to move right.

I'll leave it at that because it's edging towards CR discussion.

Edited by jimmyjazz
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Js1

Js1 85109

Posted
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Too bad we don't have an area in Surly where people can piss and moan about Politics...

Daily Texan forum is that way <---

Oh wait, you mean THOSE kind of politics.  That way then -----> 

Edited by Js1
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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26279

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21 hours ago, Ag with kids said:

And, YES, this website has become quite far left.  The fact that you don't realize that may mean you need to leave YOUR left wing bubble. 

I’d say this is an anti-GOP, but it’s hardly left wing. Most of the most stridently anti-GOP members on this forum (not me, others) were pretty much fully aligned to GOP policy prescriptions until 6 years ago. 

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Cheeseweasel

Cheeseweasel 26437

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13 hours ago, 52-80 said:

As far as ive seen it, anybody you disagree with is automatically and categorically some opposite end-wing. 

i dont know how many wings ive been accused of by now. 

Hospital Wings?

Paul McCartney and Wings?

Hooters Wings?

 

So many Wings are better than Political Wings.

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Skipper

Skipper 6103

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On the other hand, I've been to Vegas 2X in last few weeks (once for fun and once for work) and it's been packed with people spending/gambling like crazy.  $25/$50 minimum tables all up and down stripped were packed Sunday night and even somewhat Monday afternoon and night.  There is zero chance all these folks are well off.    The combination of inflation with continued high discretionary spending is crazy.   Which is not shocking.  Financial literacy and discipline in this country is abysmal.  

 

 

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9935

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57 minutes ago, Skipper said:

On the other hand, I've been to Vegas 2X in last few weeks (once for fun and once for work) and it's been packed with people spending/gambling like crazy.  $25/$50 minimum tables all up and down stripped were packed Sunday night and even somewhat Monday afternoon and night.  There is zero chance all these folks are well off.    The combination of inflation with continued high discretionary spending is crazy.   Which is not shocking.  Financial literacy and discipline in this country is abysmal.  

All the way from where we came
Built a mansion in a day
Distant lightning, thunder claps
Watched our neighbor's house collapse
Looked the other way
 

Fate don’t fail me now . . .


 

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6538

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Posted
7 hours ago, Skipper said:

On the other hand, I've been to Vegas 2X in last few weeks (once for fun and once for work) and it's been packed with people spending/gambling like crazy.  $25/$50 minimum tables all up and down stripped were packed Sunday night and even somewhat Monday afternoon and night.  There is zero chance all these folks are well off.    The combination of inflation with continued high discretionary spending is crazy.   Which is not shocking.  Financial literacy and discipline in this country is abysmal.  

 

 

I was in Key West for a week and the scrip clubs were PACKED.

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52-80

52-80 19090

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, Skipper said:

On the other hand, I've been to Vegas 2X in last few weeks (once for fun and once for work) and it's been packed with people spending/gambling like crazy.  $25/$50 minimum tables all up and down stripped were packed Sunday night and even somewhat Monday afternoon and night.  There is zero chance all these folks are well off.    The combination of inflation with continued high discretionary spending is crazy.   Which is not shocking.  Financial literacy and discipline in this country is abysmal. 

I get a very strong sense that everyone now is engaged in leisure travel (and associated spending) because of pent up covid lockdown.  Its true of everyone I know personally, everyone at work, and even the same sentiment is on surly. 

And yeah the surly folks are illiterate as hell

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52-80

52-80 19090

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Posted
On 7/14/2022 at 6:21 PM, gsoda3 said:

started off as a supply issue then it became a demand issue. 

demand seemed to have already started as early as 2020

Target comparable sales

image.png.fa5fd526733e399594bb271459089a78.png

Walmart CY2020 comp sales +8%.  every quarter has commentary about "stimulus spending"

image.thumb.png.8f0204d0bc62b04b36adc95162567e01.png

 

amex YoY spending.  +30% is way higher than CPI

image.thumb.png.59f0b1232a0ded3d5e964f0bb10c389b.png

 

image.png.f0552db76c18a551359f95992c84f4ff.png

People aren't charging housing to their credit card.  And spending isn't all on gasoline.

image.png.3523bf5b6a67453fe4f1b23a6afce831.png

 

Methink the youngins doth spend too much money....

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