2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?

[washparkhorn 9,973]

World recession + strong USD = 

Bullet with butterfly wings  

 

 

[troph 25,222]

54 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

And a lot of times we are actually out of the recession about the time it is officially announced we are in one.  That's the fun of stats that lag by a quarter.

That’s what I’m saying / inflation numbers lag as well.  The whole CPI thing is at least in part done by secret shoppers.  

[Humble Beast 258]

48 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

Starting to think this administration is as stupid as the last.

Maybe they meant paison?

[troph 25,222]

3 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

World recession + strong USD = 

Bullet with butterfly wings  

 

 

There it is y’all go about buying up foreign real estate with US dollars. Thank me later.

[Cheeseweasel 26,439]

12 minutes ago, troph said:

There it is y’all go about buying up foreign real estate with US dollars. Thank me later.

[Js1 87,179]

2 hours ago, DaysOff said:

Starting to think this administration is as stupid as the last.

It's a typo.  Human error. 

Calm yourself, Nancy.  Embarrassing? Yeah, sure.  But whatever. 

1 hour ago, troph said:

There it is y’all go about buying up foreign real estate with US dollars. Thank me later.

So we are turning it around on all the foreign investors buying up US real estate?

[Incredulity 11,876]

2 hours ago, DaysOff said:

Starting to think this administration is as stupid as the last.

Borg hates a bothsider

[Cheeseweasel 26,439]

50 minutes ago, Js1 said:

It's a typo.  Human error. 

Calm yourself, Nancy.  Embarrassing? Yeah, sure.  But whatever. 

Covfefe

[phdhorn 6,225]

2 hours ago, Humble Beast said:

Maybe they meant paison?

No, they were talking about you can get a good golden shower in Northeast DC for $35.

[Cheeseweasel 26,439]

20 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

No, they were talking about you can get a good golden shower in Northeast DC for $35.

[UTGrad98 2,332]

3 hours ago, troph said:

There it is y’all go about buying up foreign real estate with US dollars. Thank me later.

It's funny you mention this. My wife and I started looking at homes in some specific Mexican cities this month. We are looking to buy in an 18 - 30 month window. It's amazing what you can get there even now. 

[babysdaddy 2,731]

This is a weird recession, if we are in one (using the 2 consecutive neg GDP quarters...the fucking balls to try and change the way we've defined if for 80 years is something else, but I digress). 

Cyclical sectors are not out of range and most are close to historical averages, meaning we aren't seeing blow outs and then declines following.  residential investment as a % of GDP is slightly above average, light vehicle sales are below their average, and business fixed investment as a % of GDP is just slightly above its average.  Job market is still tight.  Layoffs are at 22 year lows, ratio of job openings to seekers is 2, which is historically high.  Debt service ratio is currently around 9.5% which is an effective all time low when excluding the pandemic relate ratios once all the stimulus was out there.  The amount of people traveling is off the charts and its all leisure.  The consumer may chill in the fall but right now they are acting like they won the lottery.

I've written this before but nominally GDP is growing rapidly and our debt to GDP ratio will be reducing to 100% around 9/30.  Inflation is the backdoor way the government de-levers.  All those fucks (#bothsides) are getting what they want.

[jimmyjazz 47,157]

28 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

This is a weird recession, if we are in one (using the 2 consecutive neg GDP quarters...the fucking balls to try and change the way we've defined if for 80 years is something else, but I digress). 

I thought the changes were an attempt to identify a recession sooner than 6 months?

[Humble Beast 258]

45 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

This is a weird recession, if we are in one (using the 2 consecutive neg GDP quarters...the fucking balls to try and change the way we've defined if for 80 years is something else, but I digress). 

 

17 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I thought the changes were an attempt to identify a recession sooner than 6 months?

 

[Incredulity 11,876]

4 hours ago, babysdaddy said:

This is a weird recession, if we are in one (using the 2 consecutive neg GDP quarters...the fucking balls to try and change the way we've defined if for 80 years is something else, but I digress). 

I somewhat recall similar efforts by Bush in the run up to 08/09(whenever that recession was finally OFFICIAL).  Completely politics.  

 

Cynical  and sad, but politics.

[StassneyHorn 6,767]

15 hours ago, Incredulity said:

Stassneyhorn took a position at WH comms department

@button works pussy.

If this is what a recession feels like I welcome it. I may not be here tomorrow during the day to celebrate, the company I work for has been flying it’s entire remote workforce into NYC for our summer party and working from HQ in Chelsea. Sorry whatever shit heap you’re in that is making your life a little bit more annoying.

[Incredulity 11,876]

1 minute ago, StassneyHorn said:

If this is what a recession feels like I welcome it.

personified 

 

 

what a fucking dildo

[StassneyHorn 6,767]

I’ve already explained my circumstances plenty. Single, Work remote, no commute, live across the street from a grocery store I can pick up heavily discounted burgers, chicken, steak etc in the morning before anyone else. Sorry you’re not thriving in your commission job or whatever you do, but no need to be a hater.

Edited July 27, 2022 by StassneyHorn

[Incredulity 11,876]

This is a bit…right?….

….Marie…?…that you?

[StassneyHorn 6,767]

My only expenses are cocaine and craft beers

[StassneyHorn 6,767]

It’s the leads isn’t it? Ya need better leads.

[Incredulity 11,876]

The Glengarry leads….?

[StruggleBus 3,922]

7 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

I’ve already explained my circumstances plenty. Single, Work remote, no commute, live across the street from a grocery store I can pick up heavily discounted burgers, chicken, steak etc in the morning before anyone else. Sorry you’re not thriving in your commission job or whatever you do, but no need to be a hater.

This guy has five figure net worth written all over him

[Cheeseweasel 26,439]

8 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

I’ve already explained my circumstances plenty. Single, Work remote, no commute, live across the street from a grocery store I can pick up heavily discounted burgers, chicken, steak etc in the morning before anyone else. Sorry you’re not thriving in your commission job or whatever you do, but no need to be a hater.

Paycheck stub vibes

[Hefeweizen 5,444]

Any thoughts on what a 75 basis point hike does today?  As pointed out before, demand destruction may work to curb inflation eventually but it could get ugly with close to full employment.  
 

I am not sure that we don’t wind up with a double dip (the current recession being the first) due to over correction.  The other aspect to this is the dollar strengthening means US exporters are going to feel some serious pain and of course our trade deficit will widen.

[StassneyHorn 6,767]

1 hour ago, StruggleBus said:

This guy has five figure net worth written all over him

Anybody that’s a somebody has 6 months of living expenses in their checking account

 

41 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Paycheck stub vibes

Now do the vibes you doomsayers are putting out.

Edited July 27, 2022 by StassneyHorn

[Cheeseweasel 26,439]

15 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

Any thoughts on what a 75 basis point hike does today?  As pointed out before, demand destruction may work to curb inflation eventually but it could get ugly with close to full employment.  
 

I am not sure that we don’t wind up with a double dip (the current recession being the first) due to over correction.  The other aspect to this is the dollar strengthening means US exporters are going to feel some serious pain and of course our trade deficit will widen.

The Fed is down to one bullet in their gun and they are going to shoot it. I think if gas prices hadn't come down in the last few weeks we'd be looking at 1% or more.

You are 100% right. This "feels" like Stagflation is coming. I don't think another 75 basis points moves the needle. I feel like the wheels are already in motion and this is "sorting deck chairs on the Titanic".

[Incredulity 11,876]

Fed beats back inflation over the next 2-4 quarters.  We end up with much more normalized unemployment( 6ish percent) and a series of shitty GDP numbers.  I think the powers that be freak the fuck out and we end up back in accommodation mode with sub 2% rates by the end of 23.

[babysdaddy 2,731]

14 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

I thought the changes were an attempt to identify a recession sooner than 6 months?

I actually don't know what the attempt was I just know they started jawboning a week before the Q2 number is revealed that 'ashkuallly, technically a recession is not 2 negative gdp quarters'.  My brain immediately turns off when yellen et al start trying to redefine or clarify something.

Edited July 27, 2022 by babysdaddy

[Humble Beast 258]

1 hour ago, Incredulity said:

Fed beats back inflation over the next 2-4 quarters.  We end up with much more normalized unemployment( 6ish percent) and a series of shitty GDP numbers.  I think the powers that be freak the fuck out and we end up back in accommodation mode with sub 2% rates by the end of 23.

I’m not an expert on how it’s figured but evidently via Eurodollar futures the market has priced in first rate cut in Q1 23. That coincidentally happens to line up with a worsening slowdown due to Europe industrial curtailment from gas shortages this winter. 

[Incredulity 11,876]

Too much chatter around start and stop of tightening in the 70’s for rate cuts to start that early.  
 

China moving on Taiwan, Russia invading other countries, thousands of Germans freezing to death in Dec/Jan are the wildcards.

[Snake Diggity 4,714]

1 hour ago, Incredulity said:

Fed beats back inflation over the next 2-4 quarters.  We end up with much more normalized unemployment( 6ish percent) and a series of shitty GDP numbers.  I think the powers that be freak the fuck out and we end up back in accommodation mode with sub 2% rates by the end of 23.

This sounds about right to me, although I don’t think rates will drop that low until later in 23.  Whatever influence the executive branch has will be used to try to time recovery to coincide with the ramping up of the 24 race.

How Ukraine plays out over the next 4 months will have a big impact on the world economy.  If there is a good outcome there then rates will probably have to stay high well into 23.  If shit gets worse or looks like it won’t resolve without escalation then rates might come down faster.

[Storm the Field 5,366]

Hmmm.

 

[Cheeseweasel 26,439]

8 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Hmmm.

 

Inflation adjusted numbers?

[babysdaddy 2,731]

38 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Inflation adjusted numbers?

yes, he only talks in real terms.  

[Storm the Field 5,366]

Edit: Nevermind, read a chart wrong.

Atlanta Fed still calling for a drop, -1.2%, up from -1.7%.

Edited July 27, 2022 by Storm the Field

[washparkhorn 9,973]

Fed pivot from restrictive rate hikes will not occur until 6% unemployment rate if history is any guide. 

[LCHorn 2,751]

4 hours ago, Hefeweizen said:

Any thoughts on what a 75 basis point hike does today?  As pointed out before, demand destruction may work to curb inflation eventually but it could get ugly with close to full employment.  
 

I am not sure that we don’t wind up with a double dip (the current recession being the first) due to over correction.  The other aspect to this is the dollar strengthening means US exporters are going to feel some serious pain and of course our trade deficit will widen.

I’m convinced the Fed only has a “bully pulpit” effect on inflation, particularly so over the short-term.  

[Aqua Buddha 14,806]

Economy is so terrible but people lined up out the door for $20 burritos at Chipotle.

[jimmyjazz 47,157]

17 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Economy is so terrible but people lined up out the door for $20 burritos at Chipotle.

$20, $9, tomato, tomahto

[Humble Beast 258]

3 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

Hmmm.

 

The print will be negative. Every time this administration has tried to get out in front of bad economic data like inflation prints it’s always been because they were bad. They’ve never tried to lower expectations and then beat them.
 

They’ve seen the gdp numbers already, thus the attempt to change the classification of a recession. 

[washparkhorn 9,973]

Recession is inevitable unless the Fed pivots. I don’t believe the Fed can pivot with its objective of 2% inflation.  The tools to defeat cost-push inflation unfortunately disproportionately hit Main Street with fierce pain. 

Edited July 27, 2022 by washparkhorn

[Cheeseweasel 26,439]

1 hour ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Economy is so terrible but people lined up out the door for $20 burritos at Chipotle.

Let them eat Cake Burritos

[Trey3216 15,452]

3 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

Hmmm.

 

Atlanta FED GDP now up to -1.2.  They were off by 1.4 the wrong way last time after having 6 or 7 in a row within a narrow margin.  

[52-80 19,377]

2 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

Recession is inevitable unless the Fed pivots. I don’t believe the Fed can pivot with its objective of 2% inflation.  The tools to defeat cost-push inflation unfortunately disproportionately hit Main Street with fierce pain. 

white house says we're not in a recession or even a 'pre-recession' tho!

[Cheeseweasel 26,439]

16 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

white house says we're not in a recession or even a 'pre-recession' tho!

[Captainant 28,533]

5 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

Recession is inevitable unless the Fed pivots. I don’t believe the Fed can pivot with its objective of 2% inflation.  The tools to defeat cost-push inflation unfortunately disproportionately hit Main Street with fierce pain. 

Unfortunately, we've been firing off our economic stimulus bullets like crazy when the economy was already fine. So when COVID and all the other economic stress hit, there wasn't that much left to make a difference

Thankfully, we generated some fantastic shareholder value during the interim

[Bozo_Casanova 26,847]

1 hour ago, Captainant said:

Unfortunately, we've been firing off our economic stimulus bullets like crazy when the economy was already fine. So when COVID and all the other economic stress hit, there wasn't that much left to make a difference

Thankfully, we generated some fantastic shareholder value during the interim

I could not have said this better myself

[phdhorn 6,225]

10 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

Hmmm.

 

By early Thursday, we'll know.

[Humble Beast 258]

2 hours ago, Captainant said:

Unfortunately, we've been firing off our economic stimulus bullets like crazy when the economy was already fine. So when COVID and all the other economic stress hit, there wasn't that much left to make a difference

Thankfully, we generated some fantastic shareholder value during the interim