2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?

[Humble Beast 258]

1 hour ago, phdhorn said:

By early Thursday, we'll know.

 

[Hozz 1012]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coming-up-u-s-gdp-11659010141?mod=home-page

Good thing the definition changed a few days ago, otherwise we'd be in a recession right now!

[Chet Steadman 940]

11 hours ago, phdhorn said:

By early Thursday, we'll know.

Fantastic reference 

[Humble Beast 258]

15 minutes ago, Hozz said:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coming-up-u-s-gdp-11659010141?mod=home-page

Good thing the definition changed a few days ago, otherwise we'd be in a recession right now!

It’s ok. I’ve read that it’s possibly incorrect and certain to be revised. 

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

2 minutes ago, Humble Beast said:

It’s ok. I’ve read that it’s possibly incorrect and certain to be revised. 

Definitions are transitory. 

[Humble Beast 258]

 

[Hozz 1012]

12 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Definitions are transitory. 

They sure are on Wikipedia.  The recession page edits, and voting, are hilarious since the new truth was published.

[52-80 19093]

LMAO scapegoated

 

”The Fed’s aggressive interest-rate hikes risk pushing the U.S. economy into recession — and the evidence is in the data.” -Massachussetts senator

 

 

[ChickenSandwich 9798]

2 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

LMAO scapegoated

 

”The Fed’s aggressive interest-rate hikes risk pushing the U.S. economy into recession — and the evidence is in the data.” -Massachussetts senator

 

 

“They are preventing ice cream for breakfast” - added the senator during a Blippi screening. 

[52-80 19093]

The fucking stupidity that is the political arena has 2 parties duking it out over pedantry and did we say / did we not say what constitutes a ‘recession’. 
 

And all it takes for them to be adults about it is admit “yes, the gdp numbers qualify for a recession according to *common* standard….but we see resilience in employment/wage/essential goods/whatever the fuck”

Talk like a grown up

 

[52-80 19093]

Like a very common definition of a ‘bear market’ is when equities are 20% below their peak. 

Why would you spend energy trying to reargue the definition (unless for point scoring)?  Its a cutoff. The answer is a binary above or below.  

But its also arbitrary. So rather than argue the indisputable fact that it is, you might say that only 1 sector-specific equity index is bear, or that the numbers are below threshold but trending upwards.  Etc. 

[UTGrad98 2258]

9 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

Talk like a grown up

 

They are speaking to the level of the average American voter. It works and will continue to work. 

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

6 minutes ago, UTGrad98 said:

They are speaking to the level of the average American voter. It works and will continue to work. 

[washparkhorn 9935]

Recession is determined by the NBER. The NBER defines “recession” as:

GDP “estimates” are often revised:

NBER will make final determination after GDP numbers are finalized. More importantly, the economy of the US (and the world) is slowing.
 

The Fed is intentionally slowing the US and world economy to fight inflation (via rate hikes and reducing its balance sheet).

The Fed is willing to risk recession in order to defeat inflation. 

Everything  else is politics - and not a proper topic for the 6th Street Journal. Take it to the Cloak Room. 

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

[52-80 19093]

Again circling the same drain. 
 

There is no codification that the NBER - a non governmental organization - is a singular authority ordaining what is and isnt a recession. 
 

The numbers are the numbers.  Consecutive contracting GDP is NOT-GOOD — regardless of anyones definitive threshold for duration and magnitude. 
 

The numbers should be the point of discussion, not who is the interpretive authority of them.  
 

(FTR, my personal opinion is that the economy is still robust)

[washparkhorn 9935]

Copper is a good bellwether for global economic health. 
 

[Wally Fairway 5522]

5 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

Copper is a good bellwether for global economic health. 

So copper and GDP should determine a recession?
I'm going with Harry Truman's definition - a recession is when your neighbor loses his job; a depression is when you lose your job.
None of my neighbors have lost their jobs, so no recession.
 

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

65.4% of statistics are made up on the spot.

[Storm the Field 5273]

5 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

I'm going with Harry Truman's definition - a recession is when your neighbor loses his job; a depression is when you lose your job.

Reminds me of Mel Brooks' distinction between tragedy and comedy.

"Tragedy is when I cut my finger. Comedy is when you fall into an open sewer and die. "

 

[troph 24562]

ball bearings are the true bellweather.

[tbone_ 14022]

The only definition of recession that matters is when capital stops investing in my apartment development projects.

[Aqua Buddha 14516]

1 hour ago, Wally Fairway said:

So copper and GDP should determine a recession?
I'm going with Harry Truman's definition - a recession is when your neighbor loses his job; a depression is when you lose your job.
None of my neighbors have lost their jobs, so no recession.
 

I liked a quote from the CR thread:

"inflation is a hardship.  a recession is a crisis."

[washparkhorn 9935]

56 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

So copper and GDP should determine a recession?

Damn nihilist. 

 

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

24 minutes ago, troph said:

ball bearings are the true bellweather.

[washparkhorn 9935]

26 minutes ago, tbone_ said:

The only definition of recession that matters is when capital stops investing in my apartment development projects.

When interest rate hikes rise to the level that make mortgages unaffordable, people will need apartments. 

[Hefeweizen 5307]

2 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

When interest rate hikes rise to the level that make mortgages unaffordable, people will need apartments. 

Except if those apartments can’t cover the cost of investment and taxes at market rates…

[Aqua Buddha 14516]

7 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

When interest rate hikes rise to the level that make mortgages unaffordable, people will need apartments. 

Or rental houses.  INVH is still one of the best hedges against rising rates.

[tbone_ 14022]

Except if those apartments can’t cover the cost of investment and taxes at market rates…

It’s a fluid situation.

[Hefeweizen 5307]

20 minutes ago, tbone_ said:

It’s a fluid situation.

It’s definitely piss.

 

I am very curious about the housing market landing.  I think it’s gentle in a few markets but there are some due for a rougher ride.  

[52-80 19093]

its a recession when @Wally Fairwaystops buying options

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

20 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

I am very curious about the housing market landing.  I think it’s gentle in a few markets but there are some due for a rougher ride.

Higher interest rates and inflated housing prices = likely major bubble pop in areas that have seen the most growth. All those McMansions are going the way of the McRib

[Trey3216 15325]

15 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Higher interest rates and inflated housing prices = likely major bubble pop in areas that have seen the most growth. All those McMansions are going the way of the McRib

Well, Texas is one of those areas with the most growth, but it's not really stopping.   It's slowing, but still not enough to meet demand.  We won't be seeing any 20% valuation increases in the next year or two, but the ones of yesteryear likely aren't pulling back either.  The $1mm+ homes may pull back some, but the starter home market is not likely to drop right now.  

[tbone_ 14022]

Higher interest rates and inflated housing prices = likely major bubble pop in areas that have seen the most growth. All those McMansions are going the way of the McRib

Offset by the fact that way too few new units have been built over the last 10 years to satisfy demand.

[Aqua Buddha 14516]

2 minutes ago, tbone_ said:

Offset by the fact that way too few new units have been built over the last 10 years to satisfy demand.

This.  It’s why housing won’t go down.  Millennials really came to market and we didn’t build enough houses after 2008 and we’re still not building enough.  You can’t fight demographics.

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

35 minutes ago, tbone_ said:

Offset by the fact that way too few new units have been built over the last 10 years to satisfy demand.

I hope you are right. I need to retire at some point and all these bubbles are pissing me off.

[bernorange 8348]

8 hours ago, Cheeseweasel said:

65.4% of statistics are made up on the spot.

[Dahobbs 17447]

6 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

This.  It’s why housing won’t go down.  Millennials really came to market and we didn’t build enough houses after 2008 and we’re still not building enough.  You can’t fight demographics.

Offset by the fact that millennials have no money. 

 

[Humble Beast 258]

 

[tbone_ 14022]

Offset by the fact that millennials have no money. 
 

Also correct. Hence, my fluid comment above.

[Gravy Train 974]

9 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

This.  It’s why housing won’t go down.  Millennials really came to market and we didn’t build enough houses after 2008 and we’re still not building enough.  You can’t fight demographics.

I call shens.. it's not new demand from Millennials-- they could have started buying a decade ago.  We don't truly have a supply shortage, it's that anything close to a 'starter home' price category has been bought up by rentlord speculators, intending for millennials to pay their mortgage.  There truly isn't a means for them to buy anything close to a normal level of affordability because the bagholders have bought into the AirBnB / BRRRR-model of holding second and third mortgages.

[Captainant 27461]

I think gravy train is right on the money, most of what's making homes expensive is corporate and non-resident buyers buying homes as investments. Whole generations have had adorable housing stolen from them, and then told it's their fault for incurring student debt and eating avocado toast and continuing to rent

Edited July 29, 2022 by Captainant

[Trey3216 15325]

2 minutes ago, Captainant said:

I think gravy train is right on the money, most of what's making homes expensive is corporate and non-resident buyers buying homes as investments. Whole generations have had adorable housing stolen from them, and then told it's their fault for incurring student debt and eating avocado toast and continuing to rent

It’s certainly a factor, but I don’t think it’s most of the factor my any means.  We’ve spent more than a decade under building in general from the repercussions of the Great Recession.  We also had a lot of reluctant buyers or non-qualified buyers who were financially destroyed during that time frame and have become free and clear to buy in the last 5-7 years.  It’s a multi factor issue, but its primary cause is not home specialties for rental properties.  

[Captainant 27461]

Nearly one in three homes sold in Texas last year were pure investment vehicles bought by investors

Edited July 29, 2022 by Captainant

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

6 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Whole generations have had adorable housing stolen from them,

Statistics say "not so fast"

 

https://www.longtermtrends.net/home-price-median-annual-income-ratio/

 

Minus the bubble and the last 2 years of "Covid economy", we are below the 50's ratio with much better interest rates.

[washparkhorn 9935]

PCE came in hot. No basis for Fed to begin dovish pivot with PCE data. 
 

UMich is next data point ahead. 

[Humble Beast 258]

49 minutes ago, Captainant said:

I think gravy train is right on the money, most of what's making homes expensive is corporate and non-resident buyers buying homes as investments. Whole generations have had adorable housing stolen from them, and then told it's their fault for incurring student debt and eating avocado toast and continuing to rent

 

41 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Nearly one in three homes sold in Texas last year were pure investment vehicles bought by investors

Something, something, the Federal Reserve artificially low interest rates, inflated home values, investors looking for returns, blah blah blah. 

[Aqua Buddha 14516]

6 hours ago, Gravy Train said:

I call shens.. it's not new demand from Millennials-- they could have started buying a decade ago.  We don't truly have a supply shortage, it's that anything close to a 'starter home' price category has been bought up by rentlord speculators, intending for millennials to pay their mortgage.  There truly isn't a means for them to buy anything close to a normal level of affordability because the bagholders have bought into the AirBnB / BRRRR-model of holding second and third mortgages.

Demand for housing is there whether it's rentals or purchase.  

[Captainant 27461]

15 minutes ago, Humble Beast said:

Something, something, the Federal Reserve artificially low interest rates, inflated home values, investors looking for returns, blah blah blah. 

100% agree that it's the result of fed policy and zero rates for years and years. It's a failure of policy that residential homes for families were turned into a commodity and reduced to a number on a balance sheet. Millions of families are being denied the dignity of owning their own home just because institutional investors can buy a house for cash and over asking price, and are more likely to produce a profit.

It makes complete sense why it's happening

[Bozo_Casanova 26281]

18 hours ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Higher interest rates and inflated housing prices = likely major bubble pop in areas that have seen the most growth. All those McMansions are going the way of the McRib

Eh, not really - three big factors caused the increase in prices - two decades of low rates combined with income inequality is a big part of it, but an enormous issue in the most desirable cities is local land codes preventing the development of more housing in central locations. In cities like Austin rising rates rates may slow down the rate that prices increase and build inventories to a more normal level, but prices won't likely fall much because there are still so very many people who are competing for relatively few places to live. 

1 hour ago, Captainant said:

I think gravy train is right on the money, most of what's making homes expensive is corporate and non-resident buyers buying homes as investments.

Only sort of - our zoning codes create scarcity by design, creating an imbalance between the housing supply and job population growth, which in turn puts pressure on transportation and creates a huge premium for reduced distance between housing and employment/recreation/etc. All that is to say that what makes the housing a good investment for corporate and non-resident buyers is precisely the thing that prices out millennials - the combination of cheap leverage and manufactured scarcity. If you make it possible to build a hell of a lot more housing in central locations, the problem gets solved. 

 

 

Build Build Build Build Build Build Build Build Build Build Build Build

Edited July 29, 2022 by Bozo_Casanova