2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?

[StassneyHorn 6,540]

Just now, Incredulity said:

Homemade sandwich for lunch….Check.

Public transit from urban condo to job…Check.

Price shop quarts of milk at Central Market…Check.

 

any other inflation hot tips?

 

Point 1 I do. Usually pork chops or hamburgers

others I never have said. Tip remains the same, change your behavior to survive.

 

Just now, Humble Beast said:

A little early to be spiking the football on the recession being no big deal. The Fed wants a recession so we’re going to get a real one. 

No it isnt

[StassneyHorn 6,540]

3 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

This is going to be awesome.

over/under on timing of paystub post?

Just pointing that like many other companies, we just had our highest revenue ever reported last quarter and the “consequences of this recession” are real.

[Incredulity 11,555]

6 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Just pointing that like many other companies, we just had our highest revenue ever reported last quarter and the “consequences of this recession” are real.

Sure.

Keep it up.

[StassneyHorn 6,540]

Live look at incredulity 

[Incredulity 11,555]

[babysdaddy 2,718]

Please quit fucking up this thread with all the bullshit

[Captainant 27,464]

Lol incredulity citing an autogenerated article as an authoritative source is just a bit too silly. 

[fattyflattie 4,636]

1 hour ago, Humble Beast said:

A little early to be spiking the football on the recession being no big deal. The Fed wants a recession so we’re going to get a real one. 

Fuck that. Shits over man. 
 

 

[washparkhorn 9,935]

On 8/14/2022 at 7:58 AM, slorch said:

We’re hemorrhaging economically. 

Not really. 
 

More supply chain trouble in China ahead. Butterfly flapping wings in China affects globalized capitalism. Same as it ever was - since 1980. 

[Cheeseweasel 26,437]

14 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

Are you purchasing more, less, or the same?

Inflation solved! Just don't buy as much stuff and you'll be fine!

[Humble Beast 258]

1 hour ago, washparkhorn said:

Not really. 
 

More supply chain trouble in China ahead. Butterfly flapping wings in China affects globalized capitalism. Same as it ever was - since 1980. 

I see more in Europe coming if/when industry has to shut down due to gas shortages. 
 

57 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Inflation solved! Just don't buy as much stuff and you'll be fine!

Yes, Stassney argument is if you just consume less you’re fine. Just spend more money on food/energy and less on discretionary items. Just make a sandwich everyday. Ok, what about the people already cutting it close before this? 
 

Future Stassney will definitely be telling people to just eat the bugs, and live in their pods. 

[washparkhorn 9,935]

52 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Inflation solved! Just don't buy as much stuff and you'll be fine!

“Out of the mouth of babes and sucklings hast thou ordained strength because of thine enemies . . .”.  
 

The animal spirits play a large role with inflation. It is known. Cost-push or demand-pull inflation is fought with the same tool: demand destruction. 

[Humble Beast 258]

1 hour ago, washparkhorn said:

Not really. 
 

More supply chain trouble in China ahead. Butterfly flapping wings in China affects globalized capitalism. Same as it ever was - since 1980. 

 

[Cheeseweasel 26,437]

US raising interest rates while China is dropping them. How fucked are we?

[Hefeweizen 5,307]

22 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

US raising interest rates while China is dropping them. How fucked are we?

Serious question, explain why Chinese monetary easing will fuck us?  I think they’re trying to juice internal demand, but maybe there’s more to it?

[Hefeweizen 5,307]

And Empire manufacturing index is ugly as hell today.  So maybe the recession is just getting started.  

[Incredulity 11,555]

**Anecdote Alert**
 

Had dinner last night with a long time friend who works in auto finance for a major bank.  She reports delinquencies are fucked and getting worse.  They have cut their loan to value limits and raised their spread to attempt to cover projected major charge offs.  
 

The bank is known to cut bait quickly and give no fucks in regards to collateral damage so it may be the bleeding edge.

[statsman 5,425]

23 hours ago, Incredulity said:

Arguments based on the presupposition that America’s tax code is simply black and white are

 

Here is an example. My wife is a realtor, self employed. TurboTax tells us annually that we claim fewer expenses than average. That’s fine. We want to pay our fair share. 

It’s very common, to get a sale of an existing home negotiated, for my wife to agree to throw in $500 towards repairs, and to do this via a check to the buyer. 

We deduct that as an expense, because … it is one. It’s not reflected on the broker’s 1099, so we have to deduct it or eat it. She wrote a check, and is receiving nothing tangible in return. If we get audited, which will be more likely because they are hiring these agents because they want more audits, we will have to spend time trying to explain this to a government employee that doesn’t know how real estate transactions work, and likely doesn’t want to know. They may very well disallow it. 
 
Which is why- even though we don’t cheat on our taxes, we will be hiring a CPA to prepare them from now on. 

Edited August 15, 2022 by statsman

[Incredulity 11,555]

7 minutes ago, statsman said:

Here is an example. My wife is a realtor, self employed. TurboTax tells us annually that we claim fewer expenses than average. That’s fine. We want to pay our fair share. 

It’s very common, to get a sale of an existing home negotiated, for my wife to agree to throw in $500 towards repairs, and to do this via a check to the buyer. 

We deduct that as an expense, because … it is one. She wrote a check, and is receiving nothing tangible in return. If we get audited, which will be more likely because they are hiring these agents because they want more audits, we will have to spend time trying to explain this to a government employee that doesn’t know how real estate transactions work, and likely doesn’t want to know. They may very well disallow it. 
 
Which is why- even though we don’t cheat on our taxes, we will be hiring a CPA to prepare them from now on. 

https://www.irs.gov/written-determinations
 

250 written determinations in less than a month.

Technical bulletins, advanced notices….

Surely the volume will decrease as their funding is increased.

 

“If you aren’t doing anything wrong why would you be afraid of an audit?”

 

 

[washparkhorn 9,935]

1 hour ago, Hefeweizen said:

And Empire manufacturing index is ugly as hell today.  So maybe the recession is just getting started.  

Bad news is good news for the markets.
 

As the risk of recession grows (hard landing), the Fed should slow down or pause rate hikes. The rub is the Fed is a little touchy about its reputation as dovish, which raises the possibility the Fed will stick to its  hawkish stance longer than merited by actual conditions - worsening any downturn.
 

To the Fed, inflation is worse than recession. Your mileage may vary. 

Edited August 15, 2022 by washparkhorn

[Cheeseweasel 26,437]

3 hours ago, Hefeweizen said:

Serious question, explain why Chinese monetary easing will fuck us?  I think they’re trying to juice internal demand, but maybe there’s more to it?

China currency manipulation at work. Lower the price of Chinese goods / raise the price of imports to China.  It's their way of imposing tariffs without violating international laws (as if they care)

[Fudge Nuggets 19,151]

9 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

To the Fed, inflation is worse than recession. Your mileage may vary. 

Says the guy that was lamenting about “deflationary headwinds” for months leading up to this shit.

[Humble Beast 258]

40 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Says the guy that was lamenting about “deflationary headwinds” for months leading up to this shit.

In WashPark’s defense there are deflationary headwinds.  I would say there’s been globalization, demographics and debt levels. But we’re nationalizing supply chains now so that’s inflationary. 
 

But yes you’re right that he wasn’t worried about inflation until it was elevated, and now he expects the Fed to go hard. 
 

I’m on the record that the Fed cannot or will not go as hard on hikes as the Fed fanbois think. This is getting out of their control. 

[Humble Beast 258]

Here’s a real world example of how people like Stassney’s position is untenable.  
 

Let’s say SS has a cola increase of 10%.  But the poor people working at their jobs only managed to negotiated a 5% raise. 
 

We need an expanded IRS squeeze that extra 5% from somewhere. We’re squeezing the last dollars that we can out of everyone. 

[Captainant 27,464]

30 minutes ago, Humble Beast said:

We need an expanded IRS squeeze that extra 5% from somewhere. We’re squeezing the last dollars that we can out of everyone. 

Maybe from all the corporations and ultra wealthy fucks that have received a trilly in tax cuts since 2017? Just a thought. 

[Hefeweizen 5,307]

12 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Maybe from all the corporations and ultra wealthy fucks that have received a trilly in tax cuts since 2017? Just a thought. 

Come on man stop that unamerican talk.  That’s just theft by the gubmint.

 

 Honestly anyone who gets a high paid W-2 should be the most incensed by the current code.  It absolutely hoses you by limiting SALT, limiting deductions, and favoring cap gains over ordinary income. So yeah anything to help me would be nice.  But I’m planning on pulling my escape chute and moving over to 1099 and cap gains land soon.  So I’m sure once I do the taxman will follow.

Edited August 16, 2022 by Hefeweizen

[StassneyHorn 6,540]

3 hours ago, Humble Beast said:

Here’s a real world example of how people like Stassney’s position is untenable.  
 

Let’s say SS has a cola increase of 10%.  But the poor people working at their jobs only managed to negotiated a 5% raise. 
 

We need an expanded IRS squeeze that extra 5% from somewhere. We’re squeezing the last dollars that we can out of everyone. 

This was stupid

[52-80 19,096]

Walmart is a pretty significant bellwether of consumer spending.

Q2 same-store sales show growth and beat prior estimates.

Q3 and H2 2022 are guided slightly upwards .  Margins guided flat or down.  (but muhhh corporate gouging!).

 

 

Consumer demand will continue until morale improve.

[bernorange 8,348]

32 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

Q2 same-store sales show growth and beat prior estimates.

Is that because people are buying more, or because buying less shit costs more?  

 

[Captainant 27,464]

3 minutes ago, bernorange said:

Is that because people are buying more, or because buying less shit costs more?  

 

I'm inclined to think it's the latter - we know that wages for the walmart demographic aren't increasing at a rate that beats inflation, and Wally world is as eager as any corporation to exploit the inflationary headwinds to increase prices for better profit margins

[Fudge Nuggets 19,151]

52 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

Q3 and H2 2022 are guided slightly upwards .  Margins guided flat or down.  (but muhhh corporate gouging!).

Their operating margin increased 15% from 2020 until now.

[52-80 19,096]

16 minutes ago, bernorange said:

Is that because people are buying more, or because buying less shit costs more?  

 

very good question.  its not really parsable from what they present.  they do not show unit counts, but they do note that there was "softness" in "discretionary" categories, offset by food (=essential) spending. 

so possible same level of spending, at higher prices.

 

[Guest]

Since this has become the economy thread, Walmart says... eh, things are ok:

"Walmart  (WMT)  posted stronger-than-expected second quarter earnings Tuesday, while trimming its expected profit decline for the year, as the world's biggest retailer appears to be shifting excess inventory and benefiting from the ongoing reduction in gas prices.  

Walmart said adjusted earnings for the three months ended in July came in at $1.88 per share, up 5.6% from the same period last year and well ahead of the Street consensus forecast of $1.62 per share.

Group revenues, the company said, were tabbed at $152.9 billion, an 8.4% increase from last year that topped analysts' estimates of $150.81 billion. U.S. same-store sales rose 6.5% from last year, the company said, firmly topping the Refinitiv forecast. Inventories, which were up 33% from last year at the end of the first quarter, narrowed to a 25% gain over the three months ending in July.

Looking into the back half of the year, Walmart said it sees adjusted earnings declining by between 9% and 11% from 2021 levels, compared to its late-July forecast of a slump of between 11% and 13%."

[Trey3216 15,325]

On 8/14/2022 at 8:48 PM, StassneyHorn said:

Just pointing that like many other companies, we just had our highest revenue ever reported last quarter and the “consequences of this recession” are real.

Revenues are great.  What did your costs look like?   Have any margin contraction due to higher input costs associated with items and labor?   

[fattyflattie 4,636]

1 hour ago, Trey3216 said:

Revenues are great.  What did your costs look like?   Have any margin contraction due to higher input costs associated with items and labor?   

Fuck outta here with your margins and profits.  Rev is to the moon. 

[babysdaddy 2,718]

12 hours ago, Captainant said:

Maybe from all the corporations and ultra wealthy fucks that have received a trilly in tax cuts since 2017? Just a thought. 

Do you believe that federal tax receipts would be an additional $1 trillion for 2018 through today had those tax bill not been enacted?

[StassneyHorn 6,540]

27 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

Fuck outta here with your margins and profits.  Rev is to the moon. 

This is all publicly available information and if he wanted to know EBITDA margins or anything else he can find them and continue to cry.

[fattyflattie 4,636]

5 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

This is all publicly available information and if he wanted to know EBITDA margins or anything else he can find them and continue to cry.

Dudes a C-suite.  Doubt he's doing any crying. 

[StassneyHorn 6,540]

44 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

Dudes a C-suite.  Doubt he's doing any crying. 

This is funny too

[Trey3216 15,325]

1 hour ago, StassneyHorn said:

This is all publicly available information and if he wanted to know EBITDA margins or anything else he can find them and continue to cry.

I wasn’t crying about shit.  I asked a simple question and you chose to reply in a snide, petty manner.  All is well.  

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Trey3216 said:

I wasn’t crying about shit.  I asked a simple question and you chose to reply in a snide, petty manner.  All is well.  

On Surly?!

[statsman 5,425]

16 hours ago, Captainant said:

Maybe from all the corporations and ultra wealthy fucks that have received a trilly in tax cuts since 2017? Just a thought. 

I think raising taxes on the corporations that sell us our goods and services is a great way to fight inflation. They are honor-bound to not raise prices. 

Edited August 16, 2022 by statsman

[52-80 19,096]

trying to cut back on the shitpost but this is pretty funny

 

[Captainant 27,464]

1 hour ago, statsman said:

I think raising taxes on the corporations that sell us our goods and services is a great way to fight inflation. They are honor-bound to not raise prices. 

Well we all got so much benefit trickling down our collective faces when we gave them a huge tax break, right? If raising taxes on corps raises their prices, then dropping taxes MUST have reduced their prices! It would just be UNPOSSIBLE that a solely profit driven entity would take every opportunity it could to maximize their profits, right???

[Captainant 27,464]

Wow, sweet memes comparing legislation you don't like to child sex traffickers. Very cool stuff!

Give me a fucking break, GRUvibes. 

[troph 24,563]

On 8/15/2022 at 10:13 AM, statsman said:

Here is an example. My wife is a realtor, self employed. TurboTax tells us annually that we claim fewer expenses than average. That’s fine. We want to pay our fair share. 

It’s very common, to get a sale of an existing home negotiated, for my wife to agree to throw in $500 towards repairs, and to do this via a check to the buyer. 

We deduct that as an expense, because … it is one. It’s not reflected on the broker’s 1099, so we have to deduct it or eat it. She wrote a check, and is receiving nothing tangible in return. If we get audited, which will be more likely because they are hiring these agents because they want more audits, we will have to spend time trying to explain this to a government employee that doesn’t know how real estate transactions work, and likely doesn’t want to know. They may very well disallow it. 
 
Which is why- even though we don’t cheat on our taxes, we will be hiring a CPA to prepare them from now on. 

That’s 100% not an issue. Run her business through a separate bank account, use some bookkeeping software - that’s deductible - and whether it’s a separate LLC or Schedule E trade or business you deduct everything that’s ordinary and necessary in the conduct of her business. Sure you need an accountant to do your taxes but that’s also deductible.  your audit risk is going to be low and if you are audited her business isn’t complex, so as long as you aren’t deducting the lawn care, and your teenagers cell phone bills you’ll be fine. 

[workswithseed 2,036]

2 hours ago, Captainant said:

Wow, sweet memes comparing legislation you don't like to child sex traffickers. Very cool stuff!

Give me a fucking break, GRUvibes. 

 

On 7/23/2022 at 7:45 AM, Captainant said:

Lmao it's no wonder @workswithseed is such a huge orban fan, he talks just like him!

Why, don't like your friends being made fun of? 

[Hefeweizen 5,307]

Damn the smooth brains have taken over.  Good night.

[52-80 19,096]

Target saw digital sales up, over estimates.  in-store sales marginally up.  Overall sales up, but just below overall estimate.  Margins are down.  Expects small incremental revenue growth for year total.

 

[washparkhorn 9,935]

On 8/15/2022 at 9:30 PM, Fudge Nuggets said:

Says the guy that was lamenting about “deflationary headwinds” for months leading up to this shit.

Explain ultra-accommodative Fed with minimal GDP growth.