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2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?

Reagan1k

By Reagan1k
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52-80
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Bateshorn
Bateshorn

The only thing more predictable than the GOP running up huge deficits on tax cuts and military spending, is each one suddenly becoming horrified by deficit spending 5 mins after a Democrat is sworn in

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 47203

Posted
Posted
56 minutes ago, Humble Beast said:

Please keep having all the super intelligent discussion elsewhere. If we need an update on produce pricing, I’ll tag you. 

Did I say a word about produce pricing?  Funny how you cut and run when someone contradicts your "facts" with "alternative facts".  Y'all are quite predictable -- you create your own reality and then stick to in until some God King tells you to shift.  It's equally laughable and pathetic.

Ask any friends you have on Austin Energy if their rates have seen any significant change in the last year.  I'll be waiting, because that was all I was responding to.  It's ironic that none of you True Believers have hit on WHY even though I've given hints.

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Humble Beast

Humble Beast 258

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Did I say a word about produce pricing?  Funny how you cut and run when someone contradicts your "facts" with "alternative facts".  Y'all are quite predictable -- you create your own reality and then stick to in until some God King tells you to shift.  It's equally laughable and pathetic.

Ask any friends you have on Austin Energy if their rates have seen any significant change in the last year.  I'll be waiting, because that was all I was responding to.  It's ironic that none of you True Believers have hit on WHY even though I've given hints.

Have you been drinking? I was joking about produce pricing because you’re the one that cites grocery shopping. I had no comment on what you said other than you’re welcome to leave if it’s too difficult to converse with posters here. 

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Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

LMAO.  You are truly stunted.  Note that (a) I never said inflation doesn't exist (b) I pointed out our rate tier, which means you pay more for each kwH (in tranches) as you consume more power, (c) who said "5% hotter"? Tell me you know nothing about heat transfer without telling me you know nothing about heat transfer and (d) when you start talking about electric bills on an Austin-centric board AND YOU DON'T EVEN KNOW WHY OUR RATES HAVEN'T GONE UP you deserve every bit of shit you get.

This is why I don't like to venture out of the CR for policy/"political" (LOL) discussion.  You people are (in general) stupid.

Neg me back, slorch.  You're a blight on this whole site.

Definition of blight

 (Entry 1 of 2)

1botany
a: a disease or injury of plants marked by the formation of lesions, withering, and death of parts (such as leaves and tubers)potato blight
b: an organism (such as an insect or a fungus) that causes blight
2: something that frustrates plans or hopesthe blight of povertyan abandoned factory that was a blight on the neighborhood
3: something that impairs or destroys… censorship … has brought under its blight Ireland's greatest poets, dramatists, and scholars.— Paul Blanshard
4: a deteriorated conditionurban blight

Wants CR argument, so he starts shit in here.

Rent free bro.  You're the one taking shots.  Fight on Quixote mofo.

Edited by slorch
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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 47203

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Humble Beast said:

Have you been drinking?

I wish, I have been catching up on work.

 

Quote

I was joking about produce pricing because you’re the one that cites grocery shopping. I had no comment on what you said other than you’re welcome to leave if it’s too difficult to converse with posters here. 

Uh, you and I were talking about electricity consumption and then you went all "talk to the face" and commented on produce pricing.  Don't try to change history any more than your type always does.

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 47203

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, slorch said:

Wants CR argument, so he starts shit in here.

Rent free bro.  You're the one taking shots.  Fight on Quixote mofo.

Oh, I know the ground rules.  They're stupid, and they're designed to protect pussies like you, but I know them nonetheless.  

You don't have the intellect or the facts to handle a CR discussion on the topic.  You are woefully misinformed.  

 

Might I remind you that this is where I jumped in, and in particular refuted your "electric bill" point?  Do you have an answer for that, slorch, or are you just going to continue to deny complicated grey areas as if they don't exist because your tiny little TTech brain can't handle big problems?

Quote

LOLz at the "It's not really that bad" campers. As if you didn't get an electric bill for July...or even put food on the table at home.

It's all imaginary, right?

 

Edited by jimmyjazz
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Humble Beast

Humble Beast 258

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I wish, I have been catching up on work.

 

Uh, you and I were talking about electricity consumption and then you went all "talk to the face" and commented on produce pricing.  Don't try to change history any more than your type always does.

The thermostat thing was a joke too. Check the ercot thread. I think we need to just move on. You’re perceiving slights where they don’t exist. 

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 47203

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Humble Beast said:

The thermostat thing was a joke too. Check the ercot thread. I think we need to just move on. You’re perceiving slights where they don’t exist. 

So you aren't actually interested in discussing locales where the cost of electricity hasn't jumped?  OK, great.  Seems anti-thetical to this thread, but hey, it's DT-adjacent, I get it, close your eyes and ignore any data that might contradict the Party Line.

Y'all spoil for fights as much as I do.  You just deny it.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19595

Posted
Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

So you aren't actually interested in discussing locales where the cost of electricity hasn't jumped?  OK, great.  Seems anti-thetical to this thread, but hey, it's DT-adjacent, I get it, close your eyes and ignore any data that might contradict the Party Line.

Y'all spoil for fights as much as I do.  You just deny it.

Hold on a second… Austin energy prices are flat? 
damn. My bill is a beating every month (not in Austin- just… surprised?) 

Edited by Wulaw Horn
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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 47203

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Hold on a second… Austin energy prices are flat? 
damn. My bill is a beating every month (not in Austin- just… surprised?) 

It's a monopoly.  We can't pick our utility.  It's easy to get lost in the weeds what with all the "power supply adjustments" and "regulatory charges", but in the end, those are a small part of the average homeowner's bill.  As an example, in Nov 2021 those charges were modified a small amount (some up, some down) but the base rates remained the same.  I suspect we may see a change this fall, but I haven't heard anything to that effect.

In addition, Austin gets power from a pretty diverse group of generation sources.  This chart from 2013 is surely no longer dead nuts accurate, but it could provide some insight into why swings in natural gas & oil might not have a huge bottom line effect on utility pricing.  The associated document claims the target was 35% renewable sources by 2020 -- I don't know if we hit that.  Note that this is not a price or cost chart, just the fraction of energy that came from various sources.  I assume costs would vary across various methods of generation.

image.png.3a1c0a670afd0efd6e901907cbfc3776.png

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gsoda3

gsoda3 3362

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Hold on a second… Austin energy prices are flat? 
damn. My bill is a beating every month (not in Austin- just… surprised?) 

i live in austin.  i live in a part that is deregulated so i can choose my provider.  my energy prices are up 45% this year.  

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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 32079

Posted
Posted

Before I'd say it's a "monopoly" (it is, of course), it is a regulated public utility, kind of the complete opposite of most of the rest of the state.

And if the deregulated rest of the state had really achieved low, low prices, there might be an argument for the "deregulation," but I don't think they have.

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 47203

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Before I'd say it's a "monopoly" (it is, of course), it is a regulated public utility, kind of the complete opposite of most of the rest of the state.

Correct.  It's a community-owned, not-for-profit arm of the City of Austin.

 

Quote

And if the deregulated rest of the state had really achieved low, low prices, there might be an argument for the "deregulation," but I don't think they have.

I learned everything I need to know about deregulated utility risk during Snowpocalypse 2021.

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gsoda3

gsoda3 3362

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

And if the deregulated rest of the state had really achieved low, low prices, there might be an argument for the "deregulation," but I don't think they have.

from what i gather from my friends, i think our deregulated prices have been lower than austin energy going back at least 15 years (that's when we moved to this place).  i've got data from the past 6 years if anyone cares to compare these blended rates:

 

 

Nov 2020 - Aug 2022:  9.4 cents/kWh

Jan 2020 - Nov 2020:  9.4 cents/kWh

Nov 2019 - Jan 2020:  9.4 cents/kWh

Sep 2018 - Oct 2019:  8.9 cents/kWh

Sep 2017 - Sep 2018: 8.9 cents/kWh

Feb 2016 - Sep 2017:  8.8 cents/kWh  

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gsoda3

gsoda3 3362

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I learned everything I need to know about deregulated utility risk during Snowpocalypse 2021.

iirc the generators failed due to the extreme temps (producers), transmission companies cut power to parts of the NG supplies (ERCOT), NG wells were unable to produce b/c of the temps, and then we had forced blackouts.  afaik the retailers are just the financing operation of the process.  how were the deregulated retail outfits responsible for snowpocalypse?

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gsoda3

gsoda3 3362

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

Aug 2022 - Aug 2025:  14.9 cents/kWh

Nov 2020 - Aug 2022:  9.4 cents/kWh

Jan 2020 - Nov 2020:  9.4 cents/kWh

Nov 2019 - Jan 2020:  9.4 cents/kWh

Sep 2018 - Oct 2019:  8.9 cents/kWh

Sep 2017 - Sep 2018: 8.9 cents/kWh

Feb 2016 - Sep 2017:  8.8 cents/kWh  

edited to include our latest contract

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 47203

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Posted
1 minute ago, gsoda3 said:

iirc the generators failed due to the extreme temps (producers), transmission companies cut power to parts of the NG supplies (ERCOT), NG wells were unable to produce b/c of the temps, and then we had forced blackouts.  afaik the retailers are just the financing operation of the process.  how were the deregulated retail outfits responsible for snowpocalypse?

Many residential customers of deregulated utilities were hit with sky-high bills because their rates were tied to wholesale electrical pricing.  The PUC let wholesale rates rise to $9 per kW-hr, way over the nominal rate of $0.12 per kW-hr.

I don't know about you, but I'm not interested in paying 75X my electric rate, even for a few days.  Some customers were charged $10K or more for a short term price spike.

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gsoda3

gsoda3 3362

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Posted
1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

Many residential customers of deregulated utilities were hit with sky-high bills because their rates were tied to wholesale electrical pricing.  The PUC let wholesale rates rise to $9 per kW-hr, way over the nominal rate of $0.12 per kW-hr.

I don't know about you, but I'm not interested in paying 75X my electric rate, even for a few days.  Some customers were charged $10K or more for a short term price spike.

the variable rates will hurt you.  it's the same thing as having an ARM back in 08.  from what i've seen i think deregulation is much better in the long run for consumers.  but it's like anything else having to do with debt (mortgage rates, credit rates) or pricing.  make sure you have a fixed rate.

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 47203

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Posted

I just looked at my current bill.  My blended rate is 7.7 c per kW-hr, but after all the additional charges, it's 12.75 c per kW-hr.  (The latter number includes taxes and a "power supply adjustment" of 2.9 c per kW-hr along with a "regulatory charge" of 1.2 c per kW-hr.  That makes up most of the difference between the blended base rate and the actual charge.)

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fattyflattie

fattyflattie 4640

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

I just looked at my current bill.  My blended rate is 7.7 c per kW-hr, but after all the additional charges, it's 12.75 c per kW-hr.  (The latter number includes taxes and a "power supply adjustment" of 2.9 c per kW-hr along with a "regulatory charge" of 1.2 c per kW-hr.  That makes up most of the difference between the blended base rate and the actual charge.)

I’m close to the same. 7.3 but ends up ~9.4 or thereabouts.  Going to be the suck when this contract runs out. 

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Humble Beast

Humble Beast 258

Posted
Posted

I hadn’t seen these numbers before. 
1.5 trillion this year 

1.5 trillion next year

1 trillion per annum after that

And that’s without any more fiscal stimulus. 
 

Who will buy? The Fed obviously. The timing should work out well for the next round of QE to get announced. Large scale debt monetization. yeehaw

 

 

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Captainant

Captainant 28539

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, Humble Beast said:

Who will buy? The Fed obviously. The timing should work out well for the next round of QE to get announced. Large scale debt monetization. yeehaw

You're just describing a government version of what private equity firms have been doing for ages with their own stocks and shares and bonds lol. This is why the money supply is out of control. Every dollar of asset is being used to underwrite loans, and then the asset is still used or sold, or simply loses value. But the money from the loan remains. 

Rinse and repeat. Zero percent interest is a hell of a drug if you've got a few million in things to get loans off of

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Captainant

Captainant 28539

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Posted
9 hours ago, Humble Beast said:

Who will buy? The Fed obviously. The timing should work out well for the next round of QE to get announced. Large scale debt monetization. yeehaw

You're just describing a government version of what private equity firms have been doing for ages with their own stocks and shares and bonds lol. This is why the money supply is out of control. Every dollar of asset is being used to underwrite loans, and then the asset is still used or sold, or simply loses value. But the money from the loan remains. 

Rinse and repeat. Zero percent interest is a hell of a drug if you've got a few million in things to get loans off of

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52-80

52-80 19377

Posted
Posted

Unintentionally humorous moment today. We had a company meeting and a question was asked about how salaries increases are not pegged to inflation like they seem to be for other employers.

Head of HR replied “well theres cost of goods inflation, and cost of labor inflation. we track labor inflation and it has not changed.  in fact raising wages would be inflationary”

 

apparently, a transfer of capital from one bucket into another bucket is inflationary, because somehow only 1 of those parties would spend the capital.  lady must be from the london school of economics. 

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gsoda3

gsoda3 3362

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Posted
5 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

Unintentionally humorous moment today. We had a company meeting and a question was asked about how salaries increases are not pegged to inflation like they seem to be for other employers.

Head of HR replied “well theres cost of goods inflation, and cost of labor inflation. we track labor inflation and it has not changed.  in fact raising wages would be inflationary”

 

apparently, a transfer of capital from one bucket into another bucket is inflationary, because somehow only 1 of those parties would spend the capital.  lady must be from the london school of economics. 

it's true labor costs haven't increased as fast as other measures but you might want to show her this.  

 

https://www.atlantafed.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker

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tbone_

tbone_ 14447

Posted
Posted
This was a global managers call, too, where these serve as the official messaging down to staff. 
CEO congratulated her, “thats an excellent answer!”  
I refrained from being more of a rabble-rouser than I typically am. 

This is the kind of corporate shit that I believe will eat your soul eventually if you aren’t careful.
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