2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?

[workswithseed 2204]

42 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Maybe stop voting for giant spending sprees during expansions.

I didn't vote for the Inflation bill.

[workswithseed 2204]

28 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

everybody has been promoting deficit spending - some on welfare, some on warfare, some on tax cuts, some on healthcare, oh yeah and the "non-political" FED was printing money like they were going to run out of paper or ink; both sides of the aisle are guilty of putting us trillions into debt.

I never said it was a "sides" issue. I did joke about. I should have added a few exclamation marks to get my point across. Oh, you can also see my ass complaining about the spending under the last regime as well. 

[jimmyjazz 47205]

7 minutes ago, workswithseed said:

So sensitive of a joke. 

I don't even know what this means.  Regardless, you weren't joking.

[workswithseed 2204]

8 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I don't even know what this means.  Regardless, you weren't joking.

You don't even know what words mean. I don't think I'll take your comment of my comment as fact.

 

[jimmyjazz 47205]

1 minute ago, workswithseed said:

You don't even know what words mean. I don't think I'll take your comment of my comment as fact.

 

LOL, OK, I don't know what words mean.  You're the big communicator and I'm just an idiot.  Gotcha.

[Hefeweizen 5444]

JPow a lib now?  It’s all coming together.  Greenspan was too I guess.

 

 The money printer go Brrrrr meme is not so funny now.

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

15 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

 The money printer go Brrrrr meme is not so funny now.

It was never funny. It was always true, though.

[Hefeweizen 5444]

I still laugh at it.  What the hell else can we peons do?  Enjoy the ride. 

[workswithseed 2204]

1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

LOL, OK, I don't know what words mean.  You're the big communicator and I'm just an idiot.  Gotcha.

Go back to receipt talks on milk. You're better at that.

 

1 hour ago, Hefeweizen said:

JPow a lib now?  It’s all coming together.  Greenspan was too I guess.

 

 The money printer go Brrrrr meme is not so funny now.

Well he's suppose to be apolitical. He got bitched at for raising interest rates .75% by Liz. What was he supposed to do? Keep spending and keep interest at zero? Soft landing ain't happening, and Liz and her ilk can keep bitching that someone has to take money out of the market.

[bluto 4997]

3 minutes ago, workswithseed said:

Go back to receipt talks on milk. You're better at that.

 

Well he's suppose to be apolitical. He got bitched at for raising interest rates .75% by Liz. What was he supposed to do? Keep spending and keep interest at zero? Soft landing ain't happening, and Liz and her ilk can keep bitching that someone has to take money out of the market.

Shut. The. Fuck. Up. And go back to your pathetic gofundme panhandling if you’re gonna say that while ignoring the cries to “cut fed rate to zero” during an already insane economic run of prosperity. 

[washparkhorn 9973]

1 hour ago, Hefeweizen said:

JPow a lib now?  It’s all coming together.  Greenspan was too I guess.

 

 The money printer go Brrrrr meme is not so funny now.

The Fed Put (originally the Greenspan Put) is apolitical. It was welfare for the fabulously wealthy. 
 

“Follow the Fed” was the mantra of the little guy cashing in on the welfare program designed for the wealthy. 

[workswithseed 2204]

2 minutes ago, bluto said:

Shut. The. Fuck. Up. And go back to your pathetic gofundme panhandling if you’re gonna say that while ignoring the cries to “cut fed rate to zero” during an already insane economic run of prosperity. 

Why. The. Periods. ?. Run of prosperity for whom? I don't feel richer than i did 3 years ago, do you?

[bluto 4997]

Bc it’s the only way to get anything through to a dunce. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-fed/trump-reverses-course-seeks-negative-rates-from-fed-boneheads-idUSKCN1VW1CW

[babysdaddy 2731]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-23/us-government-debt-shrinks-against-soaring-inflation

Inflation is doing its job.  But I think the Fed is going to have to pause at some point in the future.  Strong dollar is wrecking shop across the globe and once unemployment starts to rise the political pressure will become too great to ignore.  

[Bozo_Casanova 26851]

2 hours ago, workswithseed said:

I didn't vote for the Inflation bill.

You didn't support the 2017 tax cut and vote for the people who did it? What would happen when either a supply shock or the next recession showed up was pretty extensively discussed at that time. 

Edited September 26, 2022 by Bozo_Casanova

[workswithseed 2204]

4 minutes ago, bluto said:

Bc it’s the only way to get anything through to a dunce. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-fed/trump-reverses-course-seeks-negative-rates-from-fed-boneheads-idUSKCN1VW1CW

What happened si

 

5 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

You didn't support the 2017 tax cut and vote for the people who did it? What would happen when either a supply shock or the next recession showed up was pretty extensively discussed at that time. 

I supported the 2017 tax cuts, and still do. I also think spending should go down too, and we're reaping with what is happening now. I don't think tax increases are going to help if you also spend like a mad man on crack. You're more likely going to get stagflation.

 

 

[fattyflattie 4640]

3 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

everybody has been promoting deficit spending - some on welfare, some on warfare, some on tax cuts, some on healthcare, oh yeah and the "non-political" FED was printing money like they were going to run out of paper or ink; both sides of the aisle are guilty of putting us trillions into debt.

Qfmft.  There’s a lot of hands in it, admittedly or not.  

[Serak The Preparer 3484]

Reading hot economic takes from someone who claimed in November of 2020 that "Our economy has been basically back to pre Covid" will never not make me laugh.

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

10 minutes ago, Serak The Preparer said:

Reading hot economic takes from someone who claimed in November of 2020 that "Our economy has been basically back to pre Covid" will never not make me laugh.

Links to the CR should be a bannable offense. 

[Serak The Preparer 3484]

17 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Links to the CR should be a bannable offense. 

Generally I agree - here the point was not to make a partisan one, rather to point out the economic bona fides of said poster. That said, neg away.

[Blotto 24021]

what was going on between the end of May and mid August, when we were spared from seed's idiotic bullshit. That was fantastic, how do we make that happen again? 

[52-80 19377]

hey guys what kinda meme stock is this and where can we buy it?

 

guess all the expectations of a fed pivot is dead x_x

[Bozo_Casanova 26851]

1 hour ago, workswithseed said:

I don't think tax increases are going to help if you also spend like a mad man on crack.

Financing a tax cut with debt is spending. Thus, it has the same effect from an inflationary  standpoint. That’s why stimulus is a real thing. And look, if the argument is that inflationary stimulus is better when it’s spent by people/business than government that’s a fair point. But don’t pretend that it’s something other than spending. 

[workswithseed 2204]

37 minutes ago, Serak The Preparer said:

Reading hot economic takes from someone who claimed in November of 2020 that "Our economy has been basically back to pre Covid" will never not make me laugh.

I wasn't the only one saying it, but as we can tell things have not gotten better. I was wrong. I'm not stupid enough to say otherwise. 

https://www.comerica.com/insights/economic-commentary/november-2020-us-economic-outlook.html

Quote

A snapshot view of the U.S. reveals a positive picture across many dimensions. Headline economic data is improving. Labor market indicators are trending in the right direction. Manufacturing metrics are positive and accelerating. Strong single-family home sales are supporting consumer spending, residential construction and manufacturing. Auto sales have firmed up, boosting activity in a slew of industries. The uncertainty surrounding a cliffhanger election is fading rapidly. Financial markets have responded favorably to the expected outcome of divided government in Washington. The prospects of some additional fiscal stimulus are positive. Monetary policy remains very accommodative. 

 

41 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Financing a tax cut with debt is spending. Thus, it has the same effect from an inflationary  standpoint. That’s why stimulus is a real thing. And look, if the argument is that inflationary stimulus is better when it’s spent by people/business than government that’s a fair point. But don’t pretend that it’s something other than spending. 

I can agree with this.

[babysdaddy 2731]

1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Financing a tax cut with debt is spending. Thus, it has the same effect from an inflationary  standpoint. That’s why stimulus is a real thing. And look, if the argument is that inflationary stimulus is better when it’s spent by people/business than government that’s a fair point. But don’t pretend that it’s something other than spending. 

I'm not certain but I believe gross federal tax receipts increased post the 2017 law.  Individual tax receipts increased.  Corporate decreased.  But the net overall resulted in increased revenue for the government.  

[Bozo_Casanova 26851]

49 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

I'm not certain but I believe gross federal tax receipts increased post the 2017 law.  Individual tax receipts increased.  Corporate decreased.  But the net overall resulted in increased revenue for the government.  

But for how long and except when it doesn’t anymore.

I’m not saying stimulus doesn’t stimulate because of course it does. That’s what it IS. So course tax revenues increase to some degree for some time. The question with funding spending/tax cutting with debt is a lot like the question with cocaine: not whether it works, but whether it’s worth it.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/christianweller/2020/01/29/trumps-wasteful-tax-cuts-lead-to-continued-trillion-dollar-deficits-in-expanding-economy/amp/

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/54918

And those are the view BEFORE Covid. 

[Humble Beast 258]

2 hours ago, 52-80 said:

hey guys what kinda meme stock is this and where can we buy it?

 

guess all the expectations of a fed pivot is dead x_x

Which will make the whipsaw even more violent when it happens.  
 

Remember the Fed is hiking aggressively to help restore their credibility wrt inflation. What happens when they’re forced to ease into high inflation?

[Humble Beast 258]

On 9/22/2022 at 11:29 AM, Humble Beast said:

 

Seems like JPY is in the crosshairs of the market. Japan is still short energy and Fed is tightening. I think it will be difficult to stave off further devaluation. 
 

 

Update 

 

[bernorange 8385]

5 hours ago, babysdaddy said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-23/us-government-debt-shrinks-against-soaring-inflation

Inflation is doing its job.  But I think the Fed is going to have to pause at some point in the future. ...

For context, see my earlier post:

Debt appears to be shrinking because we shifted debt to a high weighting on the short term while rates were low.  It's only a matter of time for debt to get rolled into service at "new and improved rates." 

You are right about the Fed having a practical and political ceiling for rates.  Debt service is a third prong to the argument that few peeps are really cognizant of at moment.

[washparkhorn 9973]

Good data (consumer confidence and new home sales) = Fed will see the need to increase pain. 

[52-80 19377]

1 hour ago, washparkhorn said:

Good data (consumer confidence and new home sales) = Fed will see the need to increase pain. 

We’re gonna need UPS and Target to layoff more full time employees so our 401k accounts can improve

[Hefeweizen 5444]

So TINA and FOMO formed a suicide pact?  Is that what’s going on?

[Humble Beast 258]

The Bank of England pivots. “Temporarily” reinstates QE. 
 

 

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

57 minutes ago, Humble Beast said:

The Bank of England pivots. “Temporarily” reinstates QE. 

How do you say BRRRRT with a Yorkshire accent?

[Hefeweizen 5444]

woostersheeeere.

[Humble Beast 258]

I hadn’t thought of pensions being the reason for a forced pivot, but it looks like they were the culprit in UK.  Thus, QE returns with 10% inflation there. 
 

 

[Captainant 28539]

Huh maybe Brexit wasn't a good idea for the UK.... Putin's social media campaigns in the mid 20teens were a masterstroke in destabilizing and weakening oppositional countries

[washparkhorn 9973]

The IMF is not pleased with GB. The IMF usually saves this type of admonishment for developing economies.  

“Given elevated inflation pressures in many countries, including UK, we do not recommend large untargeted fiscal packages at this juncture, as it is important fiscal policy does not work at cross purposes to monetary policy.”

[Humble Beast 258]

36 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

The IMF is not pleased with GB. The IMF usually saves this type of admonishment for developing economies.  

“Given elevated inflation pressures in many countries, including UK, we do not recommend large untargeted fiscal packages at this juncture, as it is important fiscal policy does not work at cross purposes to monetary policy.”

Ultimately every nation will do what they think benefits them. The tax cuts were probably overdoing it, but a lot of their spending is energy bailouts. 
 

Strong dollar + energy shortage in a given nation = currency debasement

Same thing for Euro and Yen. 
 

Shortages are not abating any time soon, so the only reprieve will be Fed pivot. 

[StruggleBus 3922]

56 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

The IMF is not pleased with GB. The IMF usually saves this type of admonishment for developing economies.  

“Given elevated inflation pressures in many countries, including UK, we do not recommend large untargeted fiscal packages at this juncture, as it is important fiscal policy does not work at cross purposes to monetary policy.”

Like forgiving student loans?

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

1 hour ago, washparkhorn said:

The IMF is not pleased with GB.

GB's response:

 

[Texas Jeff 1999]

On 9/26/2022 at 4:14 PM, babysdaddy said:

I'm not certain but I believe gross federal tax receipts increased post the 2017 law.  Individual tax receipts increased.  Corporate decreased.  But the net overall resulted in increased revenue for the government.  

Hard to tell.  This 2020 analysis from the Brookings Institute says that revenue dropped for 2018 from what they would have been without the tax cuts, although revenue did rise: https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/did-the-2017-tax-cut-the-tax-cuts-and-jobs-act-pay-for-itself/

The argument is that revenue did go up, like it does most years because of inflation and economic growth, but revenues went up by less than they would have if the tax cut did not happen.

Gross revenues going down is kinda rare.  It generally happens during bad economic times.  That survey links to a spreadsheet showing revenues from 1969-2018.  Revenues fell in 1971, 1983, 2001-2003, 2008-2009.  Those are mostly years around the times of stock market declines.

Personally, as a taxpayer over the past 30 years, it feels like the federal tax burden has gone down and the local property tax burden has increased.

Edited September 28, 2022 by Texas Jeff

[babysdaddy 2731]

16 minutes ago, Texas Jeff said:

Hard to tell.  This 2020 analysis from the Brookings Institute says that revenue dropped for 2018 from what they would have been without the tax cuts, although revenue did rise: https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/did-the-2017-tax-cut-the-tax-cuts-and-jobs-act-pay-for-itself/

The argument is that revenue did go up, like it does most years because of inflation and economic growth, but revenues went up by less than they would have if the tax cut did not happen.

Gross revenues going down is kinda rare.  It generally happens during bad economic times.  That survey links to a spreadsheet showing revenues from 1969-2018.  Revenues fell in 1971, 1983, 2001-2003, 2008-2009.  Those are mostly years around the times of stock market declines.

Personally, as a taxpayer over the past 30 years, it feels like the federal tax burden has gone down and the local property tax burden has increased.

Tough argument given tax policy is dynamic.  Arguing that tax revenue went up less than it would've otherwise is a hypothetical that can't be proven. And it becomes completely irrelevant once we have a global pandemic that distorts everything imaginable including taxes and stimulus spending.  BC stated that the US financed the tax cuts with debt and the facts don't support that claim.  

And property taxes are an asswhip

[washparkhorn 9973]

2 hours ago, StruggleBus said:

Like forgiving student loans?

Not really. 

[Shaggy3.0 1695]

1 hour ago, washparkhorn said:

Not really. 

Robust stream.  Healthy bladder.

[Neonmoon 38130]

1 hour ago, washparkhorn said:

Not really. 

He's a selfish teammate 

[Humble Beast 258]

Druckenmiller was calling out Fed mistakes last year. 
 

Also, on debt and entitlements 

 

 

[Parliament 14598]

Lumber producers are cutting back, a signal that higher interest rates are taking root
Growing number of Canada’s largest companies cite softening demand

https://financialpost.com/commodities/lumber-producers-are-cutting-back-a-signal-that-higher-interest-rates-are-taking-hold

[Humble Beast 258]

 

[52-80 19377]

19 hours ago, Humble Beast said:

I hadn’t thought of pensions being the reason for a forced pivot, but it looks like they were the culprit in UK.  Thus, QE returns with 10% inflation there. 
 

 

why are pension funds holding assets using leverage/margins? 

this shouldn't be a thing.