2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?

[Captainant 28539]

2 hours ago, 52-80 said:

why are pension funds holding assets using leverage/margins? 

this shouldn't be a thing.

Turns out that cutting regulations just to cut regulations may lead to a bad time

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jul/08/bank-official-sounds-alarm-over-free-lunch-city-deregulation

Quote

Changing insurance rules known as Solvency II that were inherited from the European Union is seen by the government as a key Brexit “dividend” for Britain’s financial industry.

Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Brexit opportunities minister, has called for a rewriting of EU financial rules to trigger an “investment big bang” in Britain powered by the City of London.

Robber Barons win again! 

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

3 hours ago, 52-80 said:

why are pension funds holding assets using leverage/margins? 

[Incredulity 11876]

4 hours ago, 52-80 said:

why are pension funds holding assets using leverage/margins? 

this shouldn't be a thing.

Because they have made unachievable commitments to the pensioners.  Often negotiated with themselves.

[Parliament 14598]

4 hours ago, 52-80 said:

why are pension funds holding assets using leverage/margins? 

this shouldn't be a thing.

OK, boomer.

[gsoda3 3362]

4 hours ago, 52-80 said:

why are pension funds holding assets using leverage/margins? 

this shouldn't be a thing.

leverage in the form of margin in itself isn't a bad thing.  if done correctly it can help reduce the risk and volatility of a portfolio.  

1 hour ago, Captainant said:

Turns out that cutting regulations just to cut regulations may lead to a bad time

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jul/08/bank-official-sounds-alarm-over-free-lunch-city-deregulation

Robber Barons win again! 

those proposals haven't happened yet and frankly even if they had occurred wouldn't have been the reason behind the crisis.  

 

these pension funds were making bets against the uk gvt bonds moving in a big way in either direction.  they were apparently irresponsibly leveraged to the point that when they needed to raise more cash they had to close these positions which moved the trade even more against them necessitating even more selling becoming a snowball effect.  

[52-80 19377]

3 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

those proposals haven't happened yet and frankly even if they had occurred wouldn't have been the reason behind the crisis. 

literally has nothing to do with the instruments or mechanisms of holdings (only about margining systems)... but its great scapegoat fodder

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1071899/20220328_Review_of_Solvency_II_Consultation.pdf

 

[gsoda3 3362]

17 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

literally has nothing to do with the instruments or mechanisms of holdings (only about margining systems)... but its great scapegoat fodder

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1071899/20220328_Review_of_Solvency_II_Consultation.pdf

 

not only great scapegoat fodder, it's an attempt at a gotcha moment you'd expect from a facebook post.  

 

for anyone who doesn't want to get lost in the technicalities of portfolio or margin risk you can just stop at this:  in the UK insurance products and pension products are different, just like here.  the funds that were in trouble yesterday were pension funds.  the article posted above with the proposal to reduce the cash requirements of margin lending was specifically for insurance.

[Humble Beast 258]

And today they announced the anticipated price tag for energy price cap. 200B Euros. Printing money to buy energy with inflation already in double digits. Good luck. 

[workswithseed 2204]

https://twitter.com/alifarhat79/status/1575493341898473472?s=20&t=JX1vsLu4RspY6dHACrmZjA

 

[Wally Fairway 5676]

22 hours ago, Humble Beast said:

And today they announced the anticipated price tag for energy price cap. 200B Euros. Printing money to buy energy with inflation already in double digits. Good luck. 

I believe that is the price of relying on Russia for energy 

[Wally Fairway 5676]

On 9/29/2022 at 5:02 AM, 52-80 said:

why are pension funds holding assets using leverage/margins? 

this shouldn't be a thing.

Who knew I should be a pension manager; I mean I can't really time investment buy/sell decisions very well, but I'm not losing on margin or with leverage.

Vote Wally money manager of the year!

[Hefeweizen 5445]

Between the continued talk of escalation and the batshit new UK policies I see a lot more pain coming.  I think we’re headed for a much harder landing than JPow thought he was going in for.

[Humble Beast 258]

 

[Parliament 14598]

Are things gonna get bad enough in Western Europe that we'll see better supplies of Dutch, French, etc sugarbabies?

[Humble Beast 258]

25 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Are things gonna get bad enough in Western Europe that we'll see better supplies of Dutch, French, etc sugarbabies?

I would think so. Our inflation is lower and we have 24-7 electricity/heat. 

[workswithseed 2204]

4 minutes ago, Humble Beast said:

I would think so. Our inflation is lower and we have 24-7 electricity/heat. 

So all it will cost is a warm bed and not just a sandwich over in Greece now?

[Humble Beast 258]

GDP rebound 

 

[troph 25227]

Help me understand why this isn’t a good chart? July and august show .0% and .1% increases that’s .6% on an annualized basis. Show anything below .3% in any given month and you’re on track for your annualized target. Current annualized numbers have 5.2% as a floor through January 31, 2023.  Numbers in November 2022 could drop .7-8% alone as last October drops off the chart.  I’m not saying we are out of the woods I’m just having a hard time reconciling the panic of inflation with what’s currently happening. I’m more concerned the fed will be too hawkish and not moderate at the right time (which I think the right time to slow down could be after the next hike).

Edited October 1, 2022 by troph

[Captainant 28539]

2 hours ago, troph said:

I’m not saying we are out of the woods I’m just having a hard time reconciling the panic of inflation with what’s currently happening.

Must not be watching much fox business then lol

[Dbeasy 15596]

2 hours ago, troph said:

Help me understand why this isn’t a good chart? July and august show .0% and .1% increases that’s .6% on an annualized basis. Show anything below .3% in any given month and you’re on track for your annualized target. Current annualized numbers have 5.2% as a floor through January 31, 2023.  Numbers in November 2022 could drop .7-8% alone as last October drops off the chart.  I’m not saying we are out of the woods I’m just having a hard time reconciling the panic of inflation with what’s currently happening. I’m more concerned the fed will be too hawkish and not moderate at the right time (which I think the right time to slow down could be after the next hike).

Includes energy, while core inflation has actually worsened??

[Humble Beast 258]

2 hours ago, troph said:

Help me understand why this isn’t a good chart? July and august show .0% and .1% increases that’s .6% on an annualized basis. Show anything below .3% in any given month and you’re on track for your annualized target. Current annualized numbers have 5.2% as a floor through January 31, 2023.  Numbers in November 2022 could drop .7-8% alone as last October drops off the chart.  I’m not saying we are out of the woods I’m just having a hard time reconciling the panic of inflation with what’s currently happening. I’m more concerned the fed will be too hawkish and not moderate at the right time (which I think the right time to slow down could be after the next hike).

The concern for the Fed, especially last month, was core inflation accelerating. I think it was 0.6% vs 0.3% expected. 

[Parliament 14598]

X post from the LOL thread:

 

He's not wrong...

[Humble Beast 258]

 

[Trey3216 15452]

On 9/30/2022 at 3:35 PM, Humble Beast said:

GDP rebound 

 

I don’t see any way that’s possible. 

[52-80 19377]

On 9/26/2022 at 9:54 PM, 52-80 said:

hey guys what kinda meme stock is this and where can we buy it?

 

guess all the expectations of a fed pivot is dead x_x

Volatility in fixed income is all sorts of fun

Peak to trough is -40bps in a matter of a few days.  Maintenance margin for /10Y is $280 per contract.  40bps move = change in value of $400… or a 1.4x returns on cash  

[52-80 19377]

Not really “returns” because margin isnt expenditure, but still, rates be wild 

[Fudge Nuggets 19455]

On 9/26/2022 at 9:36 AM, Wally Fairway said:

we are going to need a very concerted effort along multiple fronts to bring inflation under control
maybe something like the advertising campaign launched in 1974

 

It was so successful that the administration was able to bring it under 2.5% by mid-1983, only took 9 years for that little button to have a big impact

Footnote: I would like to thank that high inflation rate for ruining the Michigan economy, which led me to move to the great state of Texas and I spent the 80's and most of the 90's in the Houston area

You got run out of Michigan just in time to get to Houston for the big oil bust?  Let me know the next time you're re-locating so I can short banks in the region.

[Fudge Nuggets 19455]

On 9/30/2022 at 7:42 AM, Wally Fairway said:

Who knew I should be a pension manager; I mean I can't really time investment buy/sell decisions very well, but I'm not losing on margin or with leverage.

Vote Wally money manager of the year!

Options aren’t margin or leverage?  That’s a new one.

[Wally Fairway 5676]

21 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Options aren’t margin or leverage?  That’s a new one.

Not when they are covered options.

[Wally Fairway 5676]

1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

You got run out of Michigan just in time to get to Houston for the big oil bust?  Let me know the next time you're re-locating so I can short banks in the region.

I got back to Michigan about 10 years before the auto industry crashed; I expect the next big market in Michigan will be related to the water rights of the lakes that surround it.

[Parliament 14598]

10 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

 ...I expect the next big market in Michigan will be related to the water rights of the lakes that surround it Eminem's music rights after he's dead.

1234

[Upgrayedd 5894]

49 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

I got back to Michigan about 10 years before the auto industry crashed; I expect the next big market in Michigan will be related to the water rights of the lakes that surround it.

I look forward to see how Los Angeles DWP annexes Muskegon 

[jimmyjazz 47212]

1 hour ago, Wally Fairway said:

Not when they are covered options.

Or long.

[Wally Fairway 5676]

42 minutes ago, Upgrayedd said:

I look forward to see how Los Angeles DWP annexes Flint

FIFY

[Humble Beast 258]

Some international agencies chiming in

IMF 

 

 

[Humble Beast 258]

 

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

15 hours ago, Humble Beast said:

 

 

 

[Wally Fairway 5676]

On 10/1/2022 at 12:55 PM, Dbeasy said:

Includes energy, while core inflation has actually worsened??

Shhh - let him be shocked at the impact as energy prices have gone back up

[washparkhorn 9973]

RBA “pivots”with smaller .25 rate increase. Australia/RBA can be a bellwether for Fed action.

Bad News = Good News: JOLTS job openings down one million. Jobs report Is Friday  

Equity markets pricing in pivot already (danger Will Robinson).

Oil up with OPEC cutting output and SPR ending releases at end of the month.  Additional sanctions on Russian oil creates an inflationary spiral.  

tldr: premature pivot prognostication

[Humble Beast 258]

5 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

RBA “pivots”with smaller .25 rate increase. Australia/RBA can be a bellwether for Fed action.

Bad News = Good News: JOLTS job openings down one million. Jobs report Is Friday  

Equity markets pricing in pivot already (danger Will Robinson).

Oil up with OPEC cutting output and SPR ending releases at end of the month.  Additional sanctions on Russian oil creates an inflationary spiral.  

tldr: premature pivot prognostication

Yeah one of my key follows thinks pivot is way down the line with core inflation still rising and oil going back up with OPEC+ looking committed to maintaining prices. 
 

The same caveat as always applies. A forced pivot a la BoE saving pension system. 

[washparkhorn 9973]

The strong USD has disadvantages. Volatility remains in charge. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19455]

Lower prices -> lower trade?

Lower manufacturing -> lower prices?

that graphic is all sorts of fucked up  Stronger $ definitely has its negatives but that graphic is a shitty way of trying to explain them  

 

[fattyflattie 4640]

On 9/30/2022 at 2:34 PM, Parliament said:

Are things gonna get bad enough in Western Europe that we'll see better supplies of Dutch, French, etc sugarbabies?

You can have the Dutch ones, I'll take the Frenchies. 

[Humble Beast 258]

Umm, not good. 
 

No expert here but guessing they didn’t like the SPR’ing we were doing. Russia of course on board with this, or driving it?

 

Hello inflation. 

[washparkhorn 9973]

6 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Lower prices -> lower trade?

Lower manufacturing -> lower prices?

that graphic is all sorts of fucked up  Stronger $ definitely has its negatives but that graphic is a shitty way of trying to explain them  

 

The Dollar Doom Cycle is not a controversial concept. A strong dollar is a liquidity tightener - and a safe haven. The normal off-ramp is the Fed lowering rates. And therein lies the problem. The Fed is so fearful of inflation that it cannot lower rates. Hence - the global dollar doom cycle becomes a risk. I hope that helps. 

[Humble Beast 258]

I’ve also heard it called the dollar milkshake theory.   

[Fudge Nuggets 19455]

8 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

The Dollar Doom Cycle is not a controversial concept. A strong dollar is a liquidity tightener - and a safe haven. The normal off-ramp is the Fed lowering rates. And therein lies the problem. The Fed is so fearful of inflation that it cannot lower rates. Hence - the global dollar doom cycle becomes a risk. I hope that helps. 

I do get it, but maybe find a graphic that says what you have stated above instead of the garbage in the original graphic.

[washparkhorn 9973]

1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I do get it, but maybe find a graphic that says what you have stated above instead of the garbage in the original graphic.

[Humble Beast 258]

1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I do get it, but maybe find a graphic that says what you have stated above instead of the garbage in the original graphic.

 

[Trey3216 15452]

18 hours ago, fattyflattie said:

You can have the Dutch ones, I'll take the Frenchies. 

You need to watch more international soccer matches.