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2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?

Reagan1k

By Reagan1k
in Business and Markets

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Bateshorn
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The only thing more predictable than the GOP running up huge deficits on tax cuts and military spending, is each one suddenly becoming horrified by deficit spending 5 mins after a Democrat is sworn in

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Laxtonto

Laxtonto 11934

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Met with a monthly manufacturing exec group this morning…. Had one guy talking about people trying to source from him with 12 month lead time, and his answer was he can’t even price right now for 3 because of raw material inflation and skyrocketing shipping cost…. 
 

The recession is here and it’s going to be the big “R” not the little one.

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Cheeseweasel

Cheeseweasel 26437

Posted
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Just now, Laxtonto said:

Met with a monthly manufacturing exec group this morning…. Had one guy talking about people trying to source from him with 12 month lead time, and his answer was he can’t even price right now for 3 because of raw material inflation and skyrocketing shipping cost…. 
 

The recession is here and it’s going to be the big “R” not the little one.

Same. "Can you give us pricing that can be locked in thru 2023?"

Are you high or just not paying attention? 

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Laxtonto

Laxtonto 11934

Posted
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Just now, Cheeseweasel said:

Same. "Can you give us pricing that can be locked in thru 2023?"

Are you high or just not paying attention? 

Had another guy that does large scale commercial countertops fab and had a firm come to him asking to quote for 3,000 units for Spring 24 and his first ask was are you insane and his seconds was how are you getting financed for new construction? 
 

It’s ugly. Was not the normal cheery group I’ve met in the past, but it didn’t help that the CPI print dropped in the middle of it.

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Royalfan5

Royalfan5 2348

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In a piece of ancedata, while grocery shopping yesterday, almost everything I bought was marked down from where it was two weeks ago. Longer term, the cattle cycle has started to confirm what is likely to be a massive contraction, so expect beef to be much more expensive 12-24 months out. 

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Posted
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20 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Would be cool to see that chart with Net Profit as a second line to see the impact of taxes/interest

Have taxes changed? Interest rates really only changed in the past few months. 

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Cheeseweasel

Cheeseweasel 26437

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19 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Have taxes changed?

Depends what you mean by "taxes". Federal "corporate taxes" have gone down. Payroll taxes have increased. State/Local/Municipal taxes have increased.

But the devil is in the detail. Corporate taxes are the easiest to manipulate/control by offshoring / Cap investment timing, etc.

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5273

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1 hour ago, Royalfan5 said:

In a piece of ancedata, while grocery shopping yesterday, almost everything I bought was marked down from where it was two weeks ago.

Avocados are quite cheap again. 

For a long time, it was really hard to find a rack of ribs for less than $20. I've found multiple on sale for $10 or less the last 2 months or so.

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Deej

Deej 76568

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9 hours ago, Royalfan5 said:

In a piece of ancedata, while grocery shopping yesterday, almost everything I bought was marked down from where it was two weeks ago. Longer term, the cattle cycle has started to confirm what is likely to be a massive contraction, so expect beef to be much more expensive 12-24 months out. 

Looking forward to $50 a pound brisket. 

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Posted
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11 hours ago, CHIEF said:

Does this take into account decreased volume?. Less pies mean you need to make more on your pies if you are selling less pies.

CHIEF

Fewer pies. Fewer.

 

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Shaggy3.0

Shaggy3.0 1695

Posted
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32 minutes ago, Newdoc said:

A YouTuber that’s pretty financially savy stated that on inflation, “The US is nicest house in a bad neighborhood.”

Well yeah.  I mean, we ARE the reserved currency in this game.  Please walk this way...right over here, so I can demonstrate the most recent model of our well-built printing press.  It's this way, down in the JPow basement.  Plenty of fun can be had by all.

 

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1 hour ago, UT_OB1 said:

Sort of related I think - BCBS quoted us a 17% increase on insurance for our company. Hopefully HR can shop around and find something less expensive that is still good coverage 

Yeah, welcome to being self insured. It's been about that for years now. I purposely haven't previewed rates for 2023 because it will put me in a terrible mood. 

And that's for abysmal coverage.

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45560

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, UT_OB1 said:

Sort of related I think - BCBS quoted us a 17% increase on insurance for our company. Hopefully HR can shop around and find something less expensive that is still good coverage 

Nothing new.  Although I am an engineer, at our startup we all wear multiple hats, and I got the "manage the company health plan" short straw.  Our cost (per person) has been going up about that much every year for a while.

Edited by jimmyjazz
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Cheeseweasel

Cheeseweasel 26437

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26 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

This is incredible. I wonder if pseudo-monopolies/duopolies are responsible for a lot of the margin increases. 

That would be my guess. Think about how a handful of companies (Apple/Google, etc) dominate the value of the S&P500. Their margins would account for a HUGE percentage of this. A bubble chart would be much more telling, but Apple/Google would be like putting Jupiter next to a marble when comparing them to any other business.

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9935

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PCE price deflator comes out tomorrow. It is a big data point for the Fed.  
 

The Fed uses the PCE price deflators numbers rather than CPI for several reasons, not the least of which is a consumer’s ability to substitute lesser quality goods/services when prices rise for higher quality products (think NY Strip steak instead of Ribeye).  
 

Regardless, I still expect .75 rather than .50 as some have been wish-casting lately. 

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Humble Beast

Humble Beast 258

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

The weaker economies reliant on energy imports going to stay fucked for a while.  Some because they fucked themselves (Germany) some because they just are in the crossfire.  

That’s the paradox. We’re (hopefully) realizing we need more oil and gas investment right as interest rates are rising worldwide. Makes it tougher to increase supply which would bring prices down over time. 

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