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2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?

Reagan1k

By Reagan1k
in Business and Markets

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babysdaddy

babysdaddy 2731

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3 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

A question for economics experts. Why isn’t the government looking to use additional taxes to slow down inflation? 

sounds good in theory.  Removing money via taxation will limit spending.  In reality taking more money away from individuals (corporate taxes are irrelevant when viewing the actual raw revenue numbers, regardless what some of our more political posters would like to indicate) when prices have increased is just telling people to lower their standard of living.  Now we have split government so nothing like that will be approved.

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The only thing more predictable than the GOP running up huge deficits on tax cuts and military spending, is each one suddenly becoming horrified by deficit spending 5 mins after a Democrat is sworn in

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On 11/14/2022 at 1:33 PM, Dbeasy said:

A question for economics experts. Why isn’t the government looking to use additional taxes to slow down inflation? 

Trying to match federal revenue to federal spending like a responsible individual or corporation?

Get out of here you witch

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1 hour ago, troph said:

producer price index up 0.2% for the month of October, below estimates of 0.4%, that's a looking forward wholesale inflation rate of 2.4%.  O_O

This is only the bitch about inflation rising thread.

It's not discussed if the print shows a positive move.

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9973

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On 11/14/2022 at 7:33 AM, Dbeasy said:

A question for economics experts. Why isn’t the government looking to use additional taxes to slow down inflation? 

The question is a good one because it recognizes the fiscal tools for combating inflation are far more precise than the Fed’s interest rate hikes, which create massive collateral damage.

That said, there is no political appetite to use those precision fiscal tools. And since the Fed has a mandate to combat inflation, the politicos gladly defer to the Fed to do the dirty work. 

 

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9973

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Good PPI news.

Also good news for Fed’s demand destruction plan was household debt rising in the face of high interest rates. Households are running out of money and racking up credit card debt. From the Bloomberg: 

US household debt climbed at the fastest annual pace since 2008 in the third quarter, with credit-card balances surging even as the interest rates that lenders charge to consumers hit a multi-decade high.

Households added $351 billion in overall debt last quarter, taking the total to $16.5 trillion, according to data released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Tuesday. That’s an increase of 8.3% from a year earlier, the most since a 9.1% jump in the first quarter of 2008. The debt figures aren’t adjusted for inflation.

Happy days are here again - JPow. 

—————

bad news - Russian missiles land in Poland killing 2. Article 5 risk for NATO/economy. 

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troph

troph 25231

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Humble Beast said:

As Winston Wolf once said, “Let’s not go sucking each other’s dicks just yet.”

You do you, I’ve tried it and I can see the appeal but it’s not for me, I’m a pussy licker all the way. 
 

as for inflation, I think the month over month numbers last 12 months plus the headwinds with rates should land us in a stable place late spring when the worst of the trailing twelve months are past us. Add a 0.2% (PPI) or a 0.4% (core without energy or food) - as examples - and drop off the lagging 0.6% - 0.7% (going from memory) and viola! Lagging indicator of annual inflation starts going down considerably. If December’s numbers show continued decline I’m going to become a bit more optimistic. In the end a recession doesn’t worry me, systemic and resilient inflation absolutely does. 

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babysdaddy

babysdaddy 2731

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You do you, I’ve tried it and I can see the appeal but it’s not for me, I’m a pussy licker all the way. 
 
as for inflation, I think the month over month numbers last 12 months plus the headwinds with rates should land us in a stable place late spring when the worst of the trailing twelve months are past us. Add a 0.2% (PPI) or a 0.4% (core without energy or food) - as examples - and drop off the lagging 0.6% - 0.7% (going from memory) and viola! Lagging indicator of annual inflation starts going down considerably. If December’s numbers show continued decline I’m going to become a bit more optimistic. In the end a recession doesn’t worry me, systemic and resilient inflation absolutely does. 

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Parliament

Parliament 14598

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16 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

2/10 inversion steepens.

US consumers relying more on credit cards with steepening interest rates.

Target shoppers becoming Walmart shoppers.  

Gridlock prevents deployment of fiscal stabilizers.

2023 recession looking like a hard landing. 

Cadillac drivers buying Chevy's

Mistresses becoming street-walkers

UT grads becoming Aggy fans.

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bullzak

bullzak 428

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This whole episode has hard landing written all over it. 

Fed has to slay the inflation dragon at the outset of all kinds of shit goes off the rails. Volcker made that mistake in the late 70s before he had to crush everything. Uh, that sucked. 

If they pivot prematurely my advice is to drink heavily. 

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StruggleBus

StruggleBus 3922

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4 hours ago, bullzak said:

This whole episode has hard landing written all over it. 

Fed has to slay the inflation dragon at the outset of all kinds of shit goes off the rails. Volcker made that mistake in the late 70s before he had to crush everything. Uh, that sucked. 

If they pivot prematurely my advice is to drink heavily. 

Feels like the hard landing is already here, but maybe that’s because I work in tech. 

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troph

troph 25231

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8 minutes ago, KeysPhoneWallet said:

Looks good on me like inflation is on a downtrend, it just hasn’t show. Up in the yoy figures yet, but will be in the next 6 months

that's what I'm saying.  though the damage is already done with higher rates changed so quickly and the increase in prices so rapidly.  It'll be another year before I'm used to restaurant prices again.

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9973

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The House of Saud announced they may increase crude output by 500K barrels. Crude was already dropping. Interesting timing suggesting bets were made before the announcement or the Saudi’s are thankful for the immunity on the Khashoggi murder.

Anyway, the effect of the announcement is disinflationary (and repulsion). 

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Armybrat

Armybrat 41415

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53 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

The House of Saud announced they may increase crude output by 500K barrels. Crude was already dropping. Interesting timing suggesting bets were made before the announcement or the Saudi’s are thankful for the immunity on the Khashoggi murder.

Anyway, the effect of the announcement is disinflationary (and repulsion). 

Slimy deal that is, but it won’t last.

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