2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Thank you for proving my point. 

That you have no idea what "record" means? That no matter what the data says, you won't admit that actually we're chugging along? 

I'll give you debt. It's insane. I hope you'll give me:

Inflation is coming down.

The Fed, believe it or not, has not put us in recession (yet).

GDP is decently strong.

Unemployment is ridiculously low.

Stock market (which I think is a bad measure of "economy") is up 13.5% off the lows.

Could it all change next month? Sure, but for right now despite all the hand-wringing in the headlines, things are doing pretty good.

Edited January 26, 2023 by FirstTimeCaller

[Neonmoon 38130]

 

 

[Guest]

23 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

 

 

It's all going too smoothly, which makes me nervous. I have no idea how you move rates from 0% -> 5% in under a year and nothing breaks. Somehow, so far they've figured it out.

[Hefeweizen 5445]

 Hang on are we cheering for inflation today or no?

 

Need my scorecard to keep track of the victory conditions.

[Neonmoon 38130]

Is inflation coming down bad? I’m confused 

[Storm the Field 5367]

Consumer inflation expectations continue to drop. Down to 3.9% for 2023 in the latest University of Michigan survey. 

 

In a related note, overall Consumer Sentiment is picking back up after plunging over the course of 2022.

[gmr548 16702]

U.S. inflation at 9.1 percent, a record high
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/u-s-inflation-at-9-1-percent-a-record-high

Oof. This is bad, even by the standards of this thread.

[Incredulity 11878]

[Captainant 28567]

1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

Oof. This is bad, even by the standards of this thread.

I was told that excessive profiteering was a feature, not a bug?

[Snake Diggity 4714]

1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

Oof. This is bad, even by the standards of this thread.

You know that article was from June, right?

[Upgrayedd 5906]

18 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

You know that article was from June, right?

Either they know and don’t care or don’t bother to read.

There may be another reason, but I can’t think of one.

[jimmyjazz 47229]

1 hour ago, Upgrayedd said:

Either they know and don’t care or don’t bother to read.

There may be another reason, but I can’t think of one.

. . . and they're ignoring the fact that the headline is wrong, and contradicts what the article actually says.

[Upgrayedd 5906]

7 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

. . . and they're ignoring the fact that the headline is wrong, and contradicts what the article actually says.

Feature.  Not a bug.

[gmr548 16702]

You know that article was from June, right?

Either they know and don’t care or don’t bother to read.
There may be another reason, but I can’t think of one.

Again

[52-80 19377]

Whats the argument now?

Inflation in terms of absolute cost of things is still extremely high, because they had been accelerating the last 2 years.

Inflation in terms of annual change is high, because of the above.

The rate of change is decreasing, because lots of the commodities and other supply chain inputs are getting back to reasonable prices. Energy still moderate high. Housing seems sticky high. 

Compared to months past the prices are no longer ‘running away’. Compared to the rate most deem stable and appropriate (2%) they are still well north of that. 

[jimmyjazz 47229]

5 hours ago, 52-80 said:

Whats the argument now?

Inflation in terms of absolute cost of things is still extremely high, because they had been accelerating the last 2 years.

Inflation in terms of annual change is high, because of the above.

The rate of change is decreasing, because lots of the commodities and other supply chain inputs are getting back to reasonable prices. Energy still moderate high. Housing seems sticky high. 

Compared to months past the prices are no longer ‘running away’. Compared to the rate most deem stable and appropriate (2%) they are still well north of that. 

Wow.  Thanks for the education.  It's almost as if you don't know what the underlying message is.  LMAO.  This place is fucked.

[52-80 19377]

Thats a pretty slope there

 

[Guest]

Yeah, but back out food and energy and it's not too bad...

[bernorange 8385]

3 hours ago, 52-80 said:

Thats a pretty slope there

Pretty sure you can move that slider for the start point back to 1970 to see the (initial) point where the slope changed.  It's a measure of the fiat dollar's failure as a store of value.

[B00M 6735]

9 minutes ago, bernorange said:

Pretty sure you can move that slider for the start point back to 1970 to see the (initial) point where the slope changed.  It's a measure of the fiat dollar's failure as a store of value.

Can’t wait to see who takes offense to this

[Neonmoon 38130]

16 minutes ago, bernorange said:

Pretty sure you can move that slider for the start point back to 1970 to see the (initial) point where the slope changed.  It's a measure of the fiat dollar's failure as a store of value.

 

6 minutes ago, B00M said:

Can’t wait to see who takes offense to this

The conversation is happening at the link below. Feel free to join in. 

 

 

[bernorange 8385]

FWIW: 

https://wolfstreet.com/2023/01/28/back-to-back-market-smackdowns-coming-from-the-fed-and-ecb-could-be-a-hoot/

[B00M 6735]

3 hours ago, bernorange said:

FWIW: 

https://wolfstreet.com/2023/01/28/back-to-back-market-smackdowns-coming-from-the-fed-and-ecb-could-be-a-hoot/

Quote

Surly frustrated central bankers telling euphoric markets that the inflation fight is far from over.

[52-80 19377]

19 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Wow.  Thanks for the education.  It's almost as if you don't know what the underlying message is.  LMAO.  This place is fucked.

I didnt seek to counterargue you or anyone else. Truthfully I don’t even know what your ‘message’ is.

The last few posts, to which I formed my response, was back and forth “is inflation high or not”. 

My response was it depends on the specific measure (yoy, mom, spot price) because no single binary answer covers the full context of the time series.

Whats your grievance with that?

[jimmyjazz 47229]

Inflation can't go from 9% to 2% without going through 6.5%.  We all know what the underlying theme here is.  D out front should have told ya'.

[B00M 6735]

So you’re once again vaguely accusing no one in particular of injecting politics? Why? 

Because the tone of the thread is pessimistic despite the short term trends being modestly encouraging? in a thread about all of us getting poorer and hanging on the decisions of an unelected body……… you think the only explanation for cynicism is… anti-left politics? 

Go outside man 

 

[jimmyjazz 47229]

21 minutes ago, B00M said:

So you’re once again vaguely accusing no one in particular of injecting politics? Why? 

Because the tone of the thread is pessimistic despite the short term trends being modestly encouraging? in a thread about all of us getting poorer and hanging on the decisions of an unelected body……… you think the only explanation for cynicism is… anti-left politics? 

Go outside man 

 

I've said it before and I'll say it again -- most of you are rooting for higher inflation.  

[Upgrayedd 5906]

6 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I've said it before and I'll say it again -- most of you are rooting for higher inflation.  

You can’t say “Not great Bob” or “Hold on to your butts” without it, can you?

Well, I suppose you could with deflation.

[Neonmoon 38130]

1 hour ago, B00M said:

So you’re once again vaguely accusing no one in particular of injecting politics? Why? 

Because the tone of the thread is pessimistic despite the short term trends being modestly encouraging? in a thread about all of us getting poorer and hanging on the decisions of an unelected body……… you think the only explanation for cynicism is… anti-left politics? 

Go outside man 

 

Much of the world is experiencing inflation issues. The US is handling it better than most, but middle of the pack for G20 countries. Yes, inflation sucks, but it’s okay to celebrate the recent downward trend 

https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/inflation-rate

I went outside, but it’s pretty cold. I’m going to make some soup. 

[B00M 6735]

1 hour ago, Neonmoon said:

Much of the world is experiencing inflation issues. The US is handling it better than most, but middle of the pack for G20 countries. Yes, inflation sucks, but it’s okay to celebrate the recent downward trend 

https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/inflation-rate

I went outside, but it’s pretty cold. I’m going to make some soup. 

Totally agreed

 

 

1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

I've said it before and I'll say it again -- most of you are rooting for higher inflation.  

[jimmyjazz 47229]

[52-80 19377]

3 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Inflation can't go from 9% to 2% without going through 6.5%.  We all know what the underlying theme here is.  D out front should have told ya'.

“Inflation is decelerating, as some of its components have come down, but others remain high, so the net basket still remains above normal”

my man, how do read politics from that, particularly which direction is being cheered for? 

[Incredulity 11878]

5 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

 

my man, how do read politics from that, particularly which direction is being cheered for? 

Edited January 30, 2023 by Incredulity

[jimmyjazz 47229]

Because I read this thread regularly, and I know what drives most of y'all's perspectives.

Just put me on ignore if I'm such a pain in your ass.  This isn't hard.

[Dbeasy 15601]

Inflation numbers are rear view mirror calculations, and housing in particular significantly lags. Economists peering into the latest numbers pretty much agree that inflation is coming down now pretty rapidly, which is why there won’t likely be 50 point basis increases anymore unless inflation reignites. 

What’s ridiculous about the political arguments is the fact that both parties contributed to the problem, with the Republicans starting it and the Democrats not being sensitive enough to adjust policies to address it fast enough. 

[Incredulity 11878]

9 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

What’s ridiculous about the political arguments

What’s ridiculous is there isn’t any political argument being posted except by JJ.

Dude denied there was an inflation issue right up until the 9.4% posted.  Wonder why……?

Edited January 30, 2023 by Incredulity

[jimmyjazz 47229]

25 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Dude denied there was an inflation issue right up until the 9.4% posted.  Wonder why……?

That's a complete lie.  I mean, 100% false.  Prove otherwise.

[Incredulity 11878]

On 5/13/2021 at 4:44 PM, jimmyjazz said:

Ike. 

Republican. 

Inflation.

Bitchass political post in this thread by….you guessed it.

 

”BuT YaLl ToTarlRY pOLITicS!!1!1!!”

[Fudge Nuggets 19462]

I thought it was washpark and his deflationary headwinds that was the last holdout to recognize inflation was actually happening.

[Incredulity 11878]

He never stopped.  He may be right long term.
 

posting that there is 9.4% inflation and expressing consternation about that isn’t political.

 

[jimmyjazz 47229]

8 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I thought it was washpark and his deflationary headwinds that was the last holdout to recognize inflation was actually happening.

You're not actually taking @Incredulity at his word, are you?  He's lying.  I've acknowledged current inflation for quite some time.  It's right here in this thread.

[Incredulity 11878]

Keep showing your ass.

[B00M 6735]

1 hour ago, Dbeasy said:

What’s ridiculous about the political arguments is the fact that both parties contributed to the problem, so here’s a political argument. Discuss.

Fixed 

[jimmyjazz 47229]

2 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Keep showing your ass.

Code for "I'm such a pussy I can't acknowledge that I've been caught in multiple lies".

[Incredulity 11878]

10 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Code for "I'm such a pussy I can't acknowledge that I've been caught in multiple lies".

[jimmyjazz 47229]

I'd like to see you prove that I denied inflation until the summer of 2022.  I mean, it's your assertion, you must have proof, given that you're absolutely obsessed with me.

(Here, I'll help you out.  I acknowledged the spike in inflation some 8-9 months before that high print, right here in this thread.  Oops.)

[Incredulity 11878]

Milk update?

How about eggs?  Ooops

[jimmyjazz 47229]

Both much pricier, especially eggs.  Do you have the nuts to acknowledge your lies?

[Incredulity 11878]

8 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Both much pricier, especially eggs

“Unpossible” -JimmyJazz’

Edited January 30, 2023 by Incredulity

[jimmyjazz 47229]

OK, not worth the effort I've put into it, much less any more.  Proof positive of your lies, almost 9 months to the day prior to the peak 9.1% inflation print:

On 10/22/2021 at 11:52 AM, jimmyjazz said:

Please blow me, and after you do that, go back and look at the point in time I was talking about.  I have never denied current inflation.