2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?

[Incredulity 11561]

1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

OK, not worth the effort I've put into it, much less any more.  Proof positive of your lies, almost 9 months to the day prior to the peak 9.1% inflation print:

 

 

 

Lol

[Hornbeliever 708]

For the last four years, we've built the exact same two buildings in the same city with each building costing $15 million 4 years ago....so no design or location variances apply in my personal inflation experiment.

Each year, we've seen ridiculously large jumps in either labor or materials (or both).

This is year 5 and for first time, we are seeing certain areas staying flat with little danger of inventory shortages.

I deeply apologize for this very political message.  I'll take it to CR next time.

 

 

[Upgrayedd 5806]

16 minutes ago, Hornbeliever said:

For the last four years, we've built the exact same two buildings in the same city with each building costing $15 million 4 years ago....so no design or location variances apply in my personal inflation experiment.

Each year, we've seen ridiculously large jumps in either labor or materials (or both).

This is year 5 and for first time, we are seeing certain areas staying flat with little danger of inventory shortages.

I deeply apologize for this very political message.  I'll take it to CR next time.

 

 

Spot on.  First time I have here in awhile that we didn’t need to procure TPO and rigid insulation a year out.  In stock and actually holding off on cutting them loose for better pricing.  Roofing materials a very-loose proxy for other materials (electrical gear excluded).

[Incredulity 11561]

24 minutes ago, Hornbeliever said:

I deeply apologize for this very political message.  I'll take it to CR next time.

[Incredulity 11561]

Of fuck, I think JJ might actually be Thunberg.

[StassneyHorn 6540]

My paychecks are worth less because eggs I don’t eat cost 20 dollars a carton

[Incredulity 11561]

Let me understand, you got the hen, the chicken and the rooster.

The rooster goes with the chicken. So, who's having sex with the hen?

[Gravy Train 974]

2 hours ago, Hornbeliever said:

For the last four years, we've built the exact same two buildings in the same city with each building costing $15 million 4 years ago....so no design or location variances apply in my personal inflation experiment.

Each year, we've seen ridiculously large jumps in either labor or materials (or both).

This is year 5 and for first time, we are seeing certain areas staying flat with little danger of inventory shortages.

I deeply apologize for this very political message.  I'll take it to CR next time.

Lumber seems to be on the rebound already, though a small Fed rate hike could slap it down one last time:

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodities

[52-80 19098]

6 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Because I read this thread regularly, and I know what drives most of y'all's perspectives.

Just put me on ignore if I'm such a pain in your ass.  This isn't hard.

You dont bother me.  I dont need to block you. We’ve never butted heads. 
I’m genuinely perplexed why you insist it turn into a strife. 

The conversation over which this started isnt a debate: ‘Is inflation high’, might as well be ‘is michael jordan tall’ and im telling you his measured height. 

‘What made it high’ is a completely other question, and absolutely yes I do think gov policies play a role, because in economics everything plays a role, and an agency of the govt was literally tasked with moderating it as an objective. 

But that wasnt the last 3 pages of discussion, over which youre lashing out. Take a chill beer

[Captainant 27472]

11 hours ago, Incredulity said:

Milk update?

How about eggs?  Ooops

I was told that companies extracting increased profit margins was their right and fiduciary responsibility? That's just some good ol fashioned gilded age free market economics baybeeeeee

[jimmyjazz 45565]

6 hours ago, 52-80 said:

But that wasnt the last 3 pages of discussion, over which youre lashing out. Take a chill beer

Actually, a great deal of my participation over the last 3 pages has consisted of me trying to get the resident clown to admit he's lying about my historical takes on the subject.  But you knew that.

[Hefeweizen 5307]

No offense but it takes two to make an idiotic argument.  You could just put him on ignore.

[gmr548 16518]

Let me understand, you got the hen, the chicken and the rooster.
The rooster goes with the chicken. So, who's having sex with the hen?

Aggy

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

Some of y'all need to get laid.

Inflation sucks. Right now inflation is bad. It looks like it might be improving, but time will tell. 

Now go get some pussy/dick/sheep or whatever floats your boat and chill.

 

[Hefeweizen 5307]

2 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Some of y'all need to get laid.

Inflation sucks. Right now inflation is bad. It looks like it might be improving, but time will tell. 

Now go get some pussy/dick/sheep or whatever floats your boat and chill.

 

All of the above.  And we may or may not be in a recession but it sure feels like JPow has kicked me in the balls.

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

9 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

And we may or may not be in a recession but it sure feels like JPow has kicked me in the balls.

Don't worry, he'll quantitatively ease your pain.

[B00M 6280]

1 hour ago, Captainant said:

I was told that companies extracting increased profit margins was their right and fiduciary responsibility? That's just some good ol fashioned gilded age free market economics baybeeeeee

Since eggs are coming up, wasn’t the root cause of this bird flu? And then some states exacerbated their problem locally by banning caged eggs? To be clear, I’m not judging that decision. But isn’t the egg situation a bit more nuanced than increased profit margins?

[Guest]

33 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

 

Inflation sucks. Right now inflation is bad.

 

Yeah, I heard it's at a record high. 

[Guest]

21 minutes ago, B00M said:

Since eggs are coming up, wasn’t the root cause of this bird flu? And then some states exacerbated their problem locally by banning caged eggs? To be clear, I’m not judging that decision. But isn’t the egg situation a bit more nuanced than increased profit margins?

The egg thing is weird to me. Gas prices? I get it. It's big, bold numbers that you see everywhere and it's something that we all use regularly.

Eggs are such a small part of someone's budget that the amount of headlines given to it seems strange. I see more about eggs going from $2.50 to $5 than I did about college tuition going from $2,500 to $5,000 when I was in school. 

[HamsterHookah 112]

8 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

The egg thing is weird to me. Gas prices? I get it. It's big, bold numbers that you see everywhere and it's something that we all use regularly.

Eggs are such a small part of someone's budget that the amount of headlines given to it seems strange. I see more about eggs going from $2.50 to $5 than I did about college tuition going from $2,500 to $5,000 when I was in school. 

If you needed any further proof that Waffle House is a cherished institution and should be protected at all costs, they are eating the costs of the price of eggs and not passing on to the consumer. 

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, HamsterHookah said:

If you needed any further proof that Waffle House is a cherished institution and should be protected at all costs, they are eating the costs of the price of eggs and not passing on to the consumer. 

Yeah that's big for a major chain like that. Guess they figure it's a temporary thing.

[jimmyjazz 45565]

34 minutes ago, B00M said:

Since eggs are coming up, wasn’t the root cause of this bird flu? 

I saw a report that claimed avian flu was the catalyst.  The numbers didn't make a lot of sense to me.  It claimed something like 10% reduction in egg supply, so egg prices more than doubled?  I mean, I don't own a farm, but that doesn't square in my world.  Then again, when the world's supply of crude oil dips 5% oil prices skyrocket, so I suppose it could be similar.

 

[Royalfan5 2348]

18 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I saw a report that claimed avian flu was the catalyst.  The numbers didn't make a lot of sense to me.  It claimed something like 10% reduction in egg supply, so egg prices more than doubled?  I mean, I don't own a farm, but that doesn't square in my world.  Then again, when the world's supply of crude oil dips 5% oil prices skyrocket, so I suppose it could be similar.

 

You also came through a seasonal demand bulge with Christmas baking season. We've pretty well caught of up with broilers from bid flu, but it takes a bit more with layers. Milk futures are off about 20% since November, and that should continue to ease a bit. Beef and pork whole sale has moderated significantly, but pork will start the seasonal run higher soon with meh numbers overall, and beef eventually takes off a bit as we are headed into the tightest part of the cattle cycle soon, and biology is not your friend there. 

[Armybrat 40748]

31 minutes ago, HamsterHookah said:

If you needed any further proof that Waffle House is a cherished institution and should be protected at all costs, they are eating the costs of the price of eggs and not passing on to the consumer. 

Well, my IHOP Colorado Omelette last week looked one egg short of what they used to be.

Edited January 30, 2023 by Armybrat

[HamsterHookah 112]

2 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

Well, my IHOP Colorado Omelette last week looked one egg short of what they used to be.

You should be eating egg whites anyways with your past medical history, right? C'mon now, popop.

[Armybrat 40748]

3 minutes ago, HamsterHookah said:

You should be eating egg whites anyways with your past medical history, right? C'mon now, popop.

I do at home - egg whites are great, as long as enough cheddar cheese is dumped in them.

[jimmyjazz 45565]

1 minute ago, Armybrat said:

I do at home - egg whites are great, as long as enough cheddar cheese is dumped in them.

The devil's dance -- yolks VS cheese.

[Armybrat 40748]

1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

The devil's dance -- yolks VS cheese.

My heart ECHO scan Wednesday is gonna tell the tale.

[Js1 85130]

10 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

I do at home - egg whites are great, as long as enough cheddar cheese is dumped in them.

Hey, same 

[52-80 19098]

1 hour ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Yeah, I heard it's at a record high. 

Stop being political. 

[52-80 19098]

1 hour ago, B00M said:

Since eggs are coming up, wasn’t the root cause of this bird flu? And then some states exacerbated their problem locally by banning caged eggs? To be clear, I’m not judging that decision. But isn’t the egg situation a bit more nuanced than increased profit margins?

The stupidity of the reflexive ‘durrr companies arrr profit gouging again’ never ever cease to amaze me. 

Like theres 1 really really really really easy question to counter it: why the fuck didnt they do it before?

I mean if you’re talking 1 specific drug on which there is patent protection, or some other monopolistic situation with unilateral pricing power, sure. 

But commodities in a cut throat business?  The top 5 egg producers each have a single digit share, and its smooth tail all the way down. 

Who would’ve thunk the 21st century Rockfellers are actually egg barons. 

[Armybrat 40748]

Cross posting…..

 

[gsoda3 3237]

1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

I saw a report that claimed avian flu was the catalyst.  The numbers didn't make a lot of sense to me.  It claimed something like 10% reduction in egg supply, so egg prices more than doubled?  I mean, I don't own a farm, but that doesn't square in my world.  Then again, when the world's supply of crude oil dips 5% oil prices skyrocket, so I suppose it could be similar.

 

domestically they've slaughtered 58 million birds to contain the avian flu outbreak.  43 million of them were egg-laying birds.  hens start laying eggs when they're 4-5 months old.  it's going to take some time to replenish those 43 million hens.  in the meantime our weekly supplies of eggs on hand have reached their lowest levels since 2014 and is off 20% yoy.  

 

at the same time though egg suppliers are booking record profits.  so those cost increases aren't only being passed on, suppliers are taking the opportunity to see how much they can raise their margins.

[Incredulity 11561]

OMGRD!!!BAbAlyON BEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!

[Captainant 27472]

1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

I saw a report that claimed avian flu was the catalyst.  The numbers didn't make a lot of sense to me.  It claimed something like 10% reduction in egg supply, so egg prices more than doubled?  I mean, I don't own a farm, but that doesn't square in my world.  Then again, when the world's supply of crude oil dips 5% oil prices skyrocket, so I suppose it could be similar.

The numbers don't make sense one bit. A 10% reduction in supply leading to a 250%+ increase in customer cost? That's some impressive yield lol. If I were operating a business with such razor thin instability and margins that a 10% haircut in a metric was THAT disruptive to my business model, I would be either out of business or operating fraudulently.

9 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

The stupidity of the reflexive ‘durrr companies arrr profit gouging again’ never ever cease to amaze me. 

Like theres 1 really really really really easy question to counter it: why the fuck didnt they do it before?

Because it was a norm to not price gouge, under the assumption that the FTC would do something about it. But since the weakening and destruction of many of those institutions, there's nothing really to stop them but the boldness to try and belief they'll get away with it.

Plus, yeah it's not like there's singular distributors that control 20% of the market and have been the originator of many of these market moves, or anything (Reuters reporting), while also reporting YoY profit increases of 600%. Totally normal stuff there and DEFINITELY 100% not correlated with their massive price increases on their principle commodity. By the way - they haven't reported any avian flu outbreaks either, so lucky they've been able to capitalize on the market conditions for maximum profitability!

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

3 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

at the same time though egg suppliers are booking record profits.  so those cost increases aren't only being passed on, suppliers are taking the opportunity to see how much they can raise their margins.

Supply / Demand.

Do we not study economics anymore?

[gsoda3 3237]

25 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Supply / Demand.

Do we not study economics anymore?

i don't know what point you're speaking to.  suppliers are trying to find the point where increased margins affect consumers' willingness to buy.  this provides perfect cover to do so.

[Incredulity 11561]

Imagine being stupid enough to think a 10% supply reduction would only result in a commensurate 10% increase in prices.

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

21 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

Suppliers are trying to find the point where increased margins affect consumers' willingness to buy.  this provides perfect cover to do so.

Every day. With every product. For the history of buying and selling.

[Incredulity 11561]

3 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Every day. With every product. For the history of buying and selling.

Grrrrrrr........... evil devil corporations!!!!!

[Shaggy3.0 1695]

Look, all I know is QT has my cheetos with no price imprints.  They tape new price labels just about every day as the price changes like premium gas.

Yeah, we have crazy inflation.  And I'm sub-200 lobs again.  Can't afford the fake cheese.

 

[gsoda3 3237]

8 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Every day. With every product. For the history of buying and selling.

yes and no.  it's a lot more nuanced than that.  

[jimmyjazz 45565]

24 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Imagine being stupid enough to think a 10% supply reduction would only result in a commensurate 10% increase in prices.

Good point.  Nobody said that, near as I can tell.

[Armybrat 40748]

Maybe too many chickens tried to cross I-35.

[52-80 19098]

I blame the inelasticity on rocky balboa

 

[B00M 6280]

2 hours ago, gsoda3 said:

domestically they've slaughtered 58 million birds to contain the avian flu outbreak.  43 million of them were egg-laying birds.  hens start laying eggs when they're 4-5 months old.  it's going to take some time to replenish those 43 million hens.  in the meantime our weekly supplies of eggs on hand have reached their lowest levels since 2014 and is off 20% yoy.  

 

at the same time though egg suppliers are booking record profits.  so those cost increases aren't only being passed on, suppliers are taking the opportunity to see how much they can raise their margins.

Do you have example earnings reports showing 2021 and 2022 for an egg supplier booking record profits? I’m just curious if maybe their objective is to exceed prior profit margins in order to replace the lost birds or something less nefarious than price gouging the poors that actually give a shit about egg prices 

Edited January 30, 2023 by B00M

[gsoda3 3237]

1 hour ago, B00M said:

Do you have example earnings reports showing 2021 and 2022 for an egg supplier booking record profits? I’m just curious if maybe their objective is to exceed prior profit margins in order to replace the lost birds or something less nefarious than price gouging the poors that actually give a shit about egg prices 

cal maine (CALM) reported earnings just before the new year.  they're the largest producer of eggs in the country, something like 40%.  i didn't listen to their conf call so they might have given insight (intentions into price behavior) but as far as i remember they didn't provide any in their earnings report. 

[TwiceHorn 31304]

Until I receive further evidence, I have not seen any "price gouging" per se.  It seems most companies are "passing along" the price increases, thereby maintaining their margins on a percentage basis, but also probably making more money on a gross basis.

For better or worse, I think most people think "passing along price increases" is not very detestable behavior.  On the other hand, why would companies/businesses feel compelled to pass along price increases?  Especially when pretty much the entire world is going through an inflationary crisis?  Are they raising their employees wages concomitantly?  Why are businesses and their shareholders exempt from feeling this pain?  And, of course, there's no real reason to believe shareholders would actually be harmed if they just raised prices say 80% of the increased COGS.

Edited January 30, 2023 by TwiceHorn

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

 

[HamsterHookah 112]

1 hour ago, TwiceHorn said:

Until I receive further evidence, I have not seen any "price gouging" per se.  It seems most companies are "passing along" the price increases, thereby maintaining their margins on a percentage basis, but also probably making more money on a gross basis.

For better or worse, I think most people think "passing along price increases" is not very detestable behavior.  On the other hand, why would companies/businesses feel compelled to pass along price increases?  Especially when pretty much the entire world is going through an inflationary crisis?  Are they raising their employees wages concomitantly?  Why are businesses and their shareholders exempt from feeling this pain?  And, of course, there's no real reason to believe shareholders would actually be harmed if they just raised prices say 80% of the increased COGS.

In a lot of businesses that are cyclical (and a lot of commodities) it is because these "boom times" make up for the "bust times" when organizations break even or lose money when looking at the longer term business model and timelines. Think of the Oil & Gas industry for example. I find it funny that people begrudge a company like Chevron/Exxon for making record profits and passing on costs instead of being patriots and taking lower profits because they can afford it right now, but were not offering to pay more for gas when it was cheaper and Chevron/Exxon were losing billions just a handful of fiscal quarters ago.

Human beings are emotional creatures and don't realize or don't like that good business, while being lawful and ethical and fair, is not emotional.

Edited January 30, 2023 by HamsterHookah