2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?

[CHIEF 5072]

On 3/5/2023 at 12:44 AM, longhornmatt said:

It’s also partly a result of the death of the midsize city/town and much greater demand to live in big cities than there was 40+ years ago or whenever.   Housing costs have soared in the markets where all the young people want to be.  Housing is still relatively affordable in other places that used to have more industry and prospects than they do now.  Just as a random example, the MOST EXPENSIVE house listed in Toledo, Ohio right now is $615,000.  There are legit mansions in Akron going for $100 per sq ft.  You could buy a pretty nice starter home there for $170,000.  The same house would cost high six figures or even $1,000,000+ in a central location in the big cities with hot real estate markets.

Another quirk that I’ve noticed, which frankly was surprising, is that if you look at price history on Zillow or wherever, the posh suburbs of eastern/northern metro areas (like Potomac, Maryland for DC, or the suburbs north of Chicago) are frequently selling for less now than they were in the early 2000s.  That’s partly a function of people moving south and west, but it’s not the whole story because the more urban developments in those cities haven’t suffered.  High rise condos in Chicago sure as shit aren’t less expensive now than they were 20 years ago, even if all the houses where they filmed John Hughes movies have gotten cheaper.

If all the jobs congregate in the same places, and all the young people demand to live the urban lifestyle you can only get in those places, then prices in those places are going to increase disproportionately. And housing is going to be much less affordable for a generation that tries to live in those markets in greater numbers compared to back in the day when people and jobs were organically more spread out. 

This. Young adults think they have to live a "cultured", affluent, young urban lifestyle. There are $100k+ jobs at Comanche Peak Nuclear Power Plant, but you are gonna live in Glen Rose, or Granbury. But $100k in this area is like $60k in Austin, or Dallas.

CHIEF

[B00M 6280]

33 minutes ago, CHIEF said:

This. Young adults think they have to live a "cultured", affluent, young urban lifestyle. There are $100k+ jobs at Comanche Peak Nuclear Power Plant, but you are gonna live in Glen Rose, or Granbury. But $100k in this area is like $60k in Austin, or Dallas.

CHIEF

The fuck are we even discussing here? This is the inflation thread. Young adults in the US simply don’t hold enough money to meaningfully move prices. 

 

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

That spread between Median and Average is...eye opening.

[gmr548 16520]

This. Young adults think they have to live a "cultured", affluent, young urban lifestyle. There are $100k+ jobs at Comanche Peak Nuclear Power Plant, but you are gonna live in Glen Rose, or Granbury. But $100k in this area is like $60k in Austin, or Dallas.
CHIEF

There are six jobs on indeed when you search “nuclear plant” in “Glen Rose, TX.”

Obviously it’s all about lifestyle for the youths. Definitely nothing to do with broader economic opportunity concentrated in metro areas that’s been well documented over the past couple decades. Nothing to see there.

[Mullet Free 40]

On 3/4/2023 at 3:40 PM, Neonmoon said:

It has nothing to do with wage stagnation over the last 50 years. Today we blame door dash. Before it was Starbucks. Before that, it was concerts. 

Evergreen post here.

https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/

23 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

That’s right. Blame the government for private business not paying their employees enough. If only we let banks, car companies, farmers, and restaurants feel the effects of the free market instead of propping them up with billions of bailout money. If you think the government creates problems, it doesn’t hold a candle to the shitty decisions of the private sector 

This is one of the worst posts in Surly history. Congrats.

[Blotto 23434]

1 hour ago, Cheeseweasel said:

That spread between Median and Average is...eye opening.

[Neonmoon 38127]

 

[Mullet Free 40]

 

 

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

YOU MOTHERFUCKER

[B00M 6280]

22 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

YOU MOTHERFUCKER

That mother fucker is still tryna convince pigs to stop fighting the fed. Maybe this anti-pivot will do the trick 

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

1 minute ago, B00M said:

That mother fucker is still tryna convince pigs to stop fighting the fed. Maybe this anti-pivot will do the trick 

Now I want to fight the FED. BRING ME MY MUSKET, GOOD SIR!

[B00M 6280]

1 hour ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Now I want to fight the FED. BRING ME MY MUSKET, GOOD SIR!

Own a musket for home defense, since that's what the founding fathers intended. Four ruffians break into my house. "What the devil?" As I grab my powdered wig and Kentucky rifle. Blow a golf ball sized hole through the first man, he's dead on the spot. Draw my pistol on the second man, miss him entirely because it's smoothbore and nails the neighbors dog. I have to resort to the cannon mounted at the top of the stairs loaded with grape shot, "Tally ho lads" the grape shot shreds two men in the blast, the sound and extra shrapnel set off car alarms. Fix bayonet and charge the last terrified rapscallion. He Bleeds out waiting on the police to arrive since triangular bayonet wounds are impossible to stitch up, Just as the founding fathers intended

[Incredulity 11561]

[Mullet Free 40]

 

 

[washparkhorn 9935]

Inflation characteristics following Black Swan shocks when markets are dominated by few firms:

https://scholarworks.umass.edu/econ_workingpaper/343/

[Guest]

On 3/5/2023 at 10:17 AM, Neonmoon said:

That’s right. Blame the government for private business not paying their employees enough. If only we let banks, car companies, farmers, and restaurants feel the effects of the free market instead of propping them up with billions of bailout money. If you think the government creates problems, it doesn’t hold a candle to the shitty decisions of the private sector 

Incredibly naive, dumb comment. 

[Mullet Free 40]

42 minutes ago, Porterhouse said:

Incredibly naive, dumb comment. 

The government is way better than the private sector in so many areas. Capital allocation, administration. Has anyone ever thought of putting them in charge of the means of production? Worth a try.

Edited March 8, 2023 by Mullet Free

[Trey3216 15325]

49 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

Inflation characteristics following Black Swan shocks when markets are dominated by few firms:

https://scholarworks.umass.edu/econ_workingpaper/343/

Let’s do this and ignore the one firm that controls money supply.   

[Neonmoon 38127]

2 hours ago, Mullet Free said:

The government is way better than the private sector in so many areas. Capital allocation, administration. Has anyone ever thought of putting them in charge of the means of production? Worth a try.

Why don’t you try address the bailout issues with private businesses instead of cute comments for your goldbug buddies.

 The military does well. Is it not the best in the world? 

Edited March 8, 2023 by Neonmoon

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Why don’t you try address the bailout issues with private businesses instead of cute commends for your goldbug buddies.

 The military does well. Is it not the best in the world? 

The military is a legendary champion of spending waste. If you’re going to throw in the bailouts (which by the way most banks most certainly did not need), you should also include all of the earnings / returns from private business. Compared to the performance of ‘government’, your comment is the dumbest fucking comment I’ve seen here.

[Guest]

Tlaib is a fucking retard. She has no idea what the Fed’s mandate is, and keeps referring to “the Feds”. Between this and her Jamie Dimon exchange, where she had her ass handed to her, she is currently the dumbest Congressperson including MTG and Boebert. 

[Mullet Free 40]

25 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Why don’t you try address the bailout issues with private businesses instead of cute commends for your goldbug buddies.

 The military does well. Is it not the best in the world? 

 

14 minutes ago, Porterhouse said:

The military is a legendary champion of spending waste. If you’re going to throw in the bailouts (which by the way most banks most certainly did not need), you should also include all of the earnings / returns from private business. Compared to the performance of ‘government’, your comment is the dumbest fucking comment I’ve seen here.

 

Also, private companies are going to fail. That's fine. Governments bailing them out is a worse mistake as it creates moral hazard and problems deepen.

[Neonmoon 38127]

I agree. Private companies should be allowed to fail. It's weird how that keeps happening but we keep bailing them out. 

For the military, is waste the only metric of success? Are we not allowed to include other metrics like results on the field?

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

Our military certainly is the most expensive in the world. They'd better be the best.

[Mullet Free 40]

20 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

I agree. Private companies should be allowed to fail. It's weird how that keeps happening but we keep bailing them out. 

For the military, is waste the only metric of success? Are we not allowed to include other metrics like results on the field?

regarding bailouts, We=the governement 

 

As for the military, we're not talking small potatoes on assets. Also, results on the field? Let's avoid CR by saying we're not exactly Bama.

 

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

14 minutes ago, Mullet Free said:

Also, results on the field?

We've been kicking ass for 200 years! We're 10 and 1!

 

[washparkhorn 9935]

3 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Let’s do this and ignore the one firm that controls money supply.   

Thanks to the Fed’s QT, the money supply is shrinking. Despite this, inflation continues. And shrinking the money supply (as the Fed is currently doing) has historically created unintended consequences:

[Armybrat 40751]

22 hours ago, B00M said:

Own a musket for home defense, since that's what the founding fathers intended. Four ruffians break into my house. "What the devil?" As I grab my powdered wig and Kentucky rifle. Blow a golf ball sized hole through the first man, he's dead on the spot. Draw my pistol on the second man, miss him entirely because it's smoothbore and nails the neighbors dog. I have to resort to the cannon mounted at the top of the stairs loaded with grape shot, "Tally ho lads" the grape shot shreds two men in the blast, the sound and extra shrapnel set off car alarms. Fix bayonet and charge the last terrified rapscallion. He Bleeds out waiting on the police to arrive since triangular bayonet wounds are impossible to stitch up, Just as the founding fathers intended

Do tell….

 

[Trey3216 15325]

36 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

Thanks to the Fed’s QT, the money supply is shrinking. Despite this, inflation continues. And shrinking the money supply (as the Fed is currently doing) has historically created unintended consequences:

Lol at that chart.  You think the FED was able to pull 15 years of money supply out of the market (the way that chart looks) or read that it is YoY and realize that M2 is down this YoY and inflation is still rampant from 15 years of monetary oversupply?    

Edited March 8, 2023 by Trey3216

[Neonmoon 38127]

44 minutes ago, Mullet Free said:

regarding bailouts, We=the governement 

 

As for the military, we're not talking small potatoes on assets. Also, results on the field? Let's avoid CR by saying we're not exactly Bama.

 

Do you think the big bad government is bailing them out because ordinary people are clamoring for it? Look, I will agree that the government fucked up the bailouts if you agree that private companies own the government? ha

[washparkhorn 9935]

24 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Lol at that chart.  You think the FED to pull 15 years of money supply out of the market (the way that chart looks) or read that it is YoY and realize that M2 is down this YoY and inflation is still rampant from 15 years of monetary oversupply?    

[Trey3216 15325]

Just now, washparkhorn said:

Know how I know you're special....

[Trey3216 15325]

5 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

Using YoY multiples, since 2010, that number is still 2.265, even with the -2% YoY.  

 

Yeah, that doesn't effect inflation at all.   

[washparkhorn 9935]

Things go wrong quickly when the flow of Spice slows — Bene Gesserit Witch, probably. 

[Trey3216 15325]

20 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

Things go wrong quickly when the flow of Spice slows — Bene Gesserit Witch, probably. 

But it's all a few corporations faults, eh?  

[Guest]

How ‘Excuseflation’ Is Keeping Prices — and Corporate Profits — High

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/how-excuseflation-is-keeping-prices-and-corporate-profits-high/ar-AA18poxq

“Whether it’s rye flour, or bird flu that impacts eggs,” said Ken Jarosch, the owner of Jarosch Bakery, “when it makes national news, just running a business, it’s an opportunity to increase the prices without getting a whole bunch of complaining from the customers.”

It’s not the kind of thing you typically hear a business owner express publicly but Jarosch was simply stating late last year his philosophy about when it’s safe for a business such as his — a midsized bakery in the Chicago suburbs — to hike prices for cookies, cakes and other carbs. He had the idea long before Covid upended supply chains, realizing he could quickly push through price increases when news hits of some big shock to the economy because there’ll be less pushback from customers right then.

Now, a growing body of analysts and researchers see this pattern playing out across Corporate America, with companies using unusual disruptions as an excuse to raise prices for their goods and services, thereby allowing them to expand profit margins.

[Parliament 14142]

I hope nobody is surprised by that.

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

27 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

How ‘Excuseflation’ Is Keeping Prices — and Corporate Profits — High

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/how-excuseflation-is-keeping-prices-and-corporate-profits-high/ar-AA18poxq

“Whether it’s rye flour, or bird flu that impacts eggs,” said Ken Jarosch, the owner of Jarosch Bakery, “when it makes national news, just running a business, it’s an opportunity to increase the prices without getting a whole bunch of complaining from the customers.”

It’s not the kind of thing you typically hear a business owner express publicly but Jarosch was simply stating late last year his philosophy about when it’s safe for a business such as his — a midsized bakery in the Chicago suburbs — to hike prices for cookies, cakes and other carbs. He had the idea long before Covid upended supply chains, realizing he could quickly push through price increases when news hits of some big shock to the economy because there’ll be less pushback from customers right then.

Now, a growing body of analysts and researchers see this pattern playing out across Corporate America, with companies using unusual disruptions as an excuse to raise prices for their goods and services, thereby allowing them to expand profit margins.

AKA: Make hay while the sun is shining. 

Old as time.

[Incredulity 11561]

Whatever GenZ "journalist" coined "excuseflation" deserves to be beaten with a rubber hose.

[Guest]

37 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Whatever GenZ "journalist" coined "excuseflation" deserves to be beaten with a rubber hose.

The author's bio:

Tracy Alloway is an Executive Editor at Bloomberg, currently based in Hong Kong, where she’s responsible for shaping the newsroom’s overall editorial coverage for Asia. Formerly in Abu Dhabi, she currently co-anchors “Bloomberg Daybreak Middle East” and hosts a weekly finance and markets podcast called “Odd Lots.”

A sought-after moderator for events including Milken’s Global Conference and the CME’s Global Financial Leadership Conference, she has secured interviews with high-profile figures including hedge fund founder Michael Hintze, billionaire investor Tom Barrack, Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz, BP CEO Bob Dudley, entrepreneurs Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, and many more.

In the Middle East, she’s covered breaking news on-air such as the appointment of Mohamed bin Salman as Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, the rift between Qatar and its Gulf neighbors, and OPEC’s most recent production cut agreement. During her two years in Abu Dhabi she interviewed some of the biggest players in the region including: Mubadala CEO Khaldoon Al-Mubarak, Adnoc CEO Sultan Al-Jaber, Emaar founder Alabbar, billionaire Abdul Aziz Al Ghurair, DP World Chairman Sultan Ahmed Bin Suleyem, and a string of oil ministers.

She was previously a U.S. financial correspondent for the Financial Times, where she covered Wall Street and built a reputation for smart and innovative coverage of subjects ranging from credit markets to financial technology. Alloway has also served as deputy editor of FT Alphaville, the FT’s award-winning finance and markets blog. In this role, she covered major market events, including the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the development of the euro zone debt crisis.

She holds a B.Sc. in International Relations from the London School of Economics and a postgraduate degree in periodical journalism from the University of Westminster.

[Trey3216 15325]

4 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

The author's bio:

Tracy Alloway is an Executive Editor at Bloomberg, currently based in Hong Kong, where she’s responsible for shaping the newsroom’s overall editorial coverage for Asia. Formerly in Abu Dhabi, she currently co-anchors “Bloomberg Daybreak Middle East” and hosts a weekly finance and markets podcast called “Odd Lots.”

A sought-after moderator for events including Milken’s Global Conference and the CME’s Global Financial Leadership Conference, she has secured interviews with high-profile figures including hedge fund founder Michael Hintze, billionaire investor Tom Barrack, Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz, BP CEO Bob Dudley, entrepreneurs Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, and many more.

In the Middle East, she’s covered breaking news on-air such as the appointment of Mohamed bin Salman as Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, the rift between Qatar and its Gulf neighbors, and OPEC’s most recent production cut agreement. During her two years in Abu Dhabi she interviewed some of the biggest players in the region including: Mubadala CEO Khaldoon Al-Mubarak, Adnoc CEO Sultan Al-Jaber, Emaar founder Alabbar, billionaire Abdul Aziz Al Ghurair, DP World Chairman Sultan Ahmed Bin Suleyem, and a string of oil ministers.

She was previously a U.S. financial correspondent for the Financial Times, where she covered Wall Street and built a reputation for smart and innovative coverage of subjects ranging from credit markets to financial technology. Alloway has also served as deputy editor of FT Alphaville, the FT’s award-winning finance and markets blog. In this role, she covered major market events, including the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the development of the euro zone debt crisis.

She holds a B.Sc. in International Relations from the London School of Economics and a postgraduate degree in periodical journalism from the University of Westminster.

Periodical journalism almost sounds like occasional journalism, even though we know that’s not the meaning here.  
 

but someone writing this based in HK isn’t surprising.   No govt influence in China.    

[Incredulity 11561]

11 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

The author's bio:

Tracy Alloway is an Executive Editor at Bloomberg, currently based in Hong Kong, where she’s responsible for shaping the newsroom’s overall editorial coverage for Asia. Formerly in Abu Dhabi, she currently co-anchors “Bloomberg Daybreak Middle East” and hosts a weekly finance and markets podcast called “Odd Lots.”

A sought-after moderator for events including Milken’s Global Conference and the CME’s Global Financial Leadership Conference, she has secured interviews with high-profile figures including hedge fund founder Michael Hintze, billionaire investor Tom Barrack, Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz, BP CEO Bob Dudley, entrepreneurs Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, and many more.

In the Middle East, she’s covered breaking news on-air such as the appointment of Mohamed bin Salman as Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, the rift between Qatar and its Gulf neighbors, and OPEC’s most recent production cut agreement. During her two years in Abu Dhabi she interviewed some of the biggest players in the region including: Mubadala CEO Khaldoon Al-Mubarak, Adnoc CEO Sultan Al-Jaber, Emaar founder Alabbar, billionaire Abdul Aziz Al Ghurair, DP World Chairman Sultan Ahmed Bin Suleyem, and a string of oil ministers.

She was previously a U.S. financial correspondent for the Financial Times, where she covered Wall Street and built a reputation for smart and innovative coverage of subjects ranging from credit markets to financial technology. Alloway has also served as deputy editor of FT Alphaville, the FT’s award-winning finance and markets blog. In this role, she covered major market events, including the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the development of the euro zone debt crisis.

She holds a B.Sc. in International Relations from the London School of Economics and a postgraduate degree in periodical journalism from the University of Westminster.

https://www.tracy-alloway.com/?page_id=2

 

Something, something crotch INFLATION

[Guest]

On 3/8/2023 at 1:01 PM, Neonmoon said:

I agree. Private companies should be allowed to fail. It's weird how that keeps happening but we keep bailing them out. 

For the military, is waste the only metric of success? Are we not allowed to include other metrics like results on the field?

Total goal post move. Congrats. Your point is terrible. You should feel really dumb. 

[Hefeweizen 5307]

On 3/6/2023 at 7:54 AM, Cheeseweasel said:

That spread between Median and Average is...eye opening.

Yeah concentration of wealth will do that… But it is median that is a lot more meaningful. Arithmetic mean is great for some analysis but in this case not so much

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

1 hour ago, Incredulity said:

https://www.tracy-alloway.com/?page_id=2

 

Something, something crotch INFLATION

Why the long face?

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Why the long face?

I was gonna say…hot for a tranny. 

[52-80 19100]

…and motherfuckers still trying to say inflation’s not real:

[Incredulity 11561]

you have to be more specific....

Shrinkflation

Inflation

Hyperflation

Stagflation

and the new hotness

Excuseflation!

[Mullet Free 40]

On 3/8/2023 at 2:58 PM, washparkhorn said:

Things go wrong quickly when the flow of Spice slows — Bene Gesserit Witch, probably. 

 

thereitis.gif

Liesman is Fed mouthpiece  

 

was only a matter of time. Get ready for some easing at elevated inflation levels. 

[52-80 19100]

On 3/9/2023 at 6:46 PM, Incredulity said:

Whatever GenZ "journalist" coined "excuseflation" deserves to be beaten with a rubber hose.

Its just a cheeky term. Tracy Alloway often injects a little bit of fun into finance. Shes a good commentator