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2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?

Reagan1k

By Reagan1k
in Business and Markets

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Bateshorn
Bateshorn

The only thing more predictable than the GOP running up huge deficits on tax cuts and military spending, is each one suddenly becoming horrified by deficit spending 5 mins after a Democrat is sworn in

PilotsError
PilotsError

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 107004

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7 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

"Cycle".  Lulz.

See similar graphs for tulip bulbs, beanie babies, certain Franklin mint collectibles, various metals at various times, etc. etc. blah blah blah.

See, you're at 1990 on the Beanie Baby price bounce -- you'd be a FOOL not to jump in now!

ai-meaningful-title.png

 

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Mullet Free

Mullet Free 39

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Posted
57 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

"Cycle".  Lulz.

It goes in 4 year cycles. 
 

AE8-CF873-2-EEE-4-D68-9-D82-2-C666-B2-C7

 

its hard to see because it’s gotten so big but there was a bull run in 2013. So 2013, 2017, 2021…

 

 

45 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

See similar graphs for tulip bulbs, beanie babies, certain Franklin mint collectibles, various metals at various times, etc. etc. blah blah blah.

See, you're at 1990 on the Beanie Baby price bounce -- you'd be a FOOL not to jump in now!

ai-meaningful-title.png


 

None of those charts are similar. 

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Hefeweizen

Hefeweizen 5447

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Jeez can we keep BTC and fiat money out of this thread at least?  There is a tiny segment of the population interested in crypto but just like gold and silver it should stay in its niche.

 

I have a bad feeling that inflating our way out of debt isn’t going the way policy makers thought it would.  Maybe we’re caught in a little conundrum here.

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Hefeweizen

Hefeweizen 5447

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56 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

I love that everyone is positioning themselves based on how it helps them, their narrative, their media message, etc. instead of what is good for the nation. 

Everyone always talks their book.  It’s just become way more obvious.

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15452

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1 hour ago, Mullet Free said:


pretty good thread here. Interesting comparison to 1998. Coincidentally the rate cut he’s discussing occurred right as Long Term Capital Management was blowing up. The first big modern Wall St bailout. Peanuts by today’s terms. $3.65B

Coincidentally, I alluded to that in another thread regarding how long Credit Suisse has been having problems.  They've been under fire during every credit event since LTCM.  This does seem a lot more like that ordeal than '08 to be honest.  I guess we'll see.  

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B00M

B00M 6735

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1 hour ago, Cheeseweasel said:

I love that everyone is positioning themselves based on how it helps them, their narrative, their media message, etc. instead of what is good for the nation. 

When you saying “positioning” are you referring to messaging or investments? In either case, what positioning do you see as good for the nation? If that position doesn’t align with basic human instincts (greed, fear), what are the odds of alignment? Zero?

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Mullet Free

Mullet Free 39

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First Fed decision in a while that hasn’t been heavily telegraphed in a while. The expectation before shit hit the fan was 25-50 bps hike. I think that 25 bps is still most likely with dovish talk about pausing going forward and watching markets closely. Being ready to reverse course quickly if needed etc. 

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15452

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1 hour ago, Cheeseweasel said:

What will happen: 25 basis points.

 

What I want to happen: 50 basis point drop. BRRRRTTT THIS MOTHERFUCKER!!!!

I think a pause would be ideal.  50bp drop would show that the FED is truly scared of systemic risk, and while BRRRRRRRRRTTTTTTTTTT, the market would likely sell off.  A raise and the market sells off.  A pause and we go sideways for another few months as things figure themselves out. 

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Cheeseweasel

Cheeseweasel 26443

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37 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

Moral Hazard part 3,237. When the Harvard boys are calling it a “financial crisis” — the bailouts are officially sanctioned. 

 

No one expects a 50 BPS drop. Maybe that's why I didn't get into Harvard. 

 

That and the money.

The shitty predictions, the money, and the low GPA. 

AMONGST the reasons I didn't get into Harvard are...

 

I'll come in again.

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B00M

B00M 6735

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Isn’t that uptick in holdings the treasury bills (or whatever) the fed has given these struggling banks full value for so they have liquidity and the fed can hold them to maturity to avoid the unrealized losses? It ends up being a wash, right? Did I miss the BRRRRT?

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Cheeseweasel

Cheeseweasel 26443

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4 minutes ago, B00M said:

Isn’t that uptick in holdings the treasury bills (or whatever) the fed has given these struggling banks full value for so they have liquidity and the fed can hold them to maturity to avoid the unrealized losses? It ends up being a wash, right? Did I miss the BRRRRT?

Yeah, that exactly what it is. 

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Cheeseweasel

Cheeseweasel 26443

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4 minutes ago, B00M said:

So fuck the fed but this just seems like the ethical thing to do given how quickly they raised interest rates. 

I used to be a fuck The Fed guy, but at this point, any other alternatives to The Fed are much worse. 

(insert Giant Douche / Turd Sandwich gif here)

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9974

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Posted

AI is the ultimate deflationary headwind.

https://economics.mit.edu/sites/default/files/inline-files/Noy_Zhang_1.pdf
 

We examine the productivity effects of a generative artificial intelligence technology—the assistive chatbot ChatGPT—in the context of mid-level professional writing tasks. In a preregistered online experiment, we assign occupation-specific, incentivized writing tasks to 444 college-educated professionals, and randomly expose half of them to ChatGPT.
 

Our results show that ChatGPT substantially raises average productivity: time taken decreases by 0.8 SDs and output quality rises by 0.4 SDs. Inequality between workers decreases, as ChatGPT compresses the productivity distribution by benefiting low-ability workers more. ChatGPT mostly substitutes for worker effort rather than complementing worker skills, and restructures tasks towards idea-generation and editing and away from rough-drafting. 

CB970B41-0408-4BA2-AFE9-C47E80B456D9.thumb.jpeg.bd4cb30af6774f45ce41a6f3b73f0a7c.jpeg

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26902

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

ChatGPT mostly substitutes for worker effort rather than complementing worker skills, and restructures tasks towards idea-generation and editing and away from rough-drafting. 

Sorry rurals, I guess we didn't need you to learn to code after all. 

Edited by Bozo_Casanova
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Hefeweizen

Hefeweizen 5447

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1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Very different world where the conservative govt brags about taxing energy companies even more.

also isn’t giving people money create more inflation not less?

The solution to inflation is to take their money away.

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Very different world where the conservative govt brags about taxing energy companies even more.

also isn’t giving people money create more inflation not less?

The solution to inflation is to take their money away.

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