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2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?

Reagan1k

By Reagan1k
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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5367

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Posted (edited)
On 4/7/2023 at 3:02 PM, Mullet Free said:

How do disabilities play into that percentage? Are they pulled from the denominator? 3 million newly disabled in the last couple years. 

Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) = CLF/CNP

Civilian Labor Force (CLF) = All persons 16 or older that are considered employed or unemployed. Basically all persons that are either working or looking for/available to work. CLF excludes people who choose not to work (including retirees), have given up on looking for work, and people unable to work.

 Civilian Non-Institutional Population (CNP) =  All persons age 16 or older, excluding active duty military, incarcerated persons, and those in residential care facilities.

So, to answer your question, LFPR is effected negatively by disability. Per BLS, only like 21% of persons with a disability are employed. The remaining 79% do not work and have either no ability to work or any intent to work, and are not considered part of the labor force.

While that sounds dramatic, the same holds true for non-disabled. The vast majority of persons considered "not in the labor force", whether disabled or not, have no intent to be employed and are not looking for work.

We're at historically low levels of U-6 unemployment, which is currently 6.7%. All time low was 6.5% back in December. U-6 is the "regular" headline unemployment (3.5%) plus individuals who would like to work but have given up looking, and individuals working part-time that want, but are unable to find, full-time employment.

By comparison, U-6 was up to almost 17% in the depths of the GFC in 2009, and took close to 6 years to get below 10.0%. It stood at 7.0% in February 2020 before COVID.

Edited by Storm the Field
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The only thing more predictable than the GOP running up huge deficits on tax cuts and military spending, is each one suddenly becoming horrified by deficit spending 5 mins after a Democrat is sworn in

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gmr548

gmr548 16704

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Few times a year (maybe 8-10) I will grab a McDonald's breakfast on the way to work.
#2 (sausage mcmuffin w/egg) has gone from less than $5(4.65??) to $7 in the last 6 months.  50% increase.
 
Payed $14 for a Medium size Whopper meal a few months ago.  ridiculous.

You’re objectively wrong.

Not for the pricing/inflation comment, but for not ordering a McGriddle. Those are disgustingly good.
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17 hours ago, Incredulity said:

Few times a year (maybe 8-10) I will grab a McDonald's breakfast on the way to work.

#2 (sausage mcmuffin w/egg) has gone from less than $5(4.65??) to $7 in the last 6 months.  50% increase.

 

Payed $14 for a Medium size Whopper meal a few months ago.  ridiculous.

I rarely eat fast food. Went to Wendy's a few days ago and the basic #1 burger combo was more than $11. Odd thing is that the sandwich alone was a little over $6, so you were paying $5 for french fries and soda. I'm not paying $12 (after tax) for a crummy burger combo.

But lots of people are. From the most recent earnings for Wendy's:

"Company restaurant margins expanded by almost 300 basis points in the fourth quarter versus the first quarter, and we opened over 275 restaurants across the globe. Supported by our business momentum and strong liquidity position, I am pleased to announce that our Board of Directors has approved a 100% increase in our quarterly dividend to $0.25 per share and a new $500 million share repurchase authorization."

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Shaggy3.0

Shaggy3.0 1695

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It's only price gouging and profiteering if people continue to pay.  Stop consuming so much.  Turn off the cell phone.  Exercise,  Walk the dog.  Bang the wife/gf/so. Get your beef/pork from a local butcher and cook at home.  Use cash for 80% of your purchases (btw, you'd be surprise by the # of places who block potential sales because they're "cashless").  Life is pretty good when personal budget goals are respected in the household.  Let inflation inflate.  

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Captainant

Captainant 28594

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5 minutes ago, Shaggy3.0 said:

It's only price gouging and profiteering if people continue to pay.  Stop consuming so much.  Turn off the cell phone.  Exercise,  Walk the dog.  Bang the wife/gf/so. Get your beef/pork from a local butcher and cook at home.  Use cash for 80% of your purchases (btw, you'd be surprise by the # of places who block potential sales because they're "cashless").  Life is pretty good when personal budget goals are respected in the household.  Let inflation inflate.  

tldr: fuck y'all, I got mine?

 

This is a lazy answer to a real macroeconomic problem. Austerity in times of social instability usually doesn't end great unless you like fascist governments

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Cheeseweasel

Cheeseweasel 26443

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4 minutes ago, Mullet Free said:

But elevated inflation begets social instability. 

Inflation happens because bad companies do bad things evidentially. Weird how until last year, none of these companies realized that all they had to do was "gouging and profiteering" and they'd make more money. I'll bet they are kicking themselves for not thinking of it before.

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Skipper

Skipper 6412

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I've always followed ticket/ticket prices going back when I used to buy/sell as a teenage scalper outside of Texas games.   Not sure if there has been much reporting/discussion but ticket inflation the past year or so has been absurd.   I'll argue Texas tickets have been relatively good value compared to pro pricing.  I definitely noticed it with Mavs ticket pricing this year (and never went to a game outside of free firm tix).  Looking today at Stars round 1 playoff tix and lowers between blue line and goal are priced at $325 face (before fees).  That prompted me to look back and saw I paid $185 face for same tickets (appears to be after fees) in round 1 2019.

The craziest was my wife was semi-interested in Taylor Swift in Dallas so I followed that market and never saw anything like it for a big venue concert.   For the Sat night show I didn't see floor or "shitty" club level go less than $1200 or so per and most went well over $2K (and obviously the best seats went well above that).  Obstructed view seats behind the stage where you couldn't see shit were going for > $700.  Told my wife no fucking way.  I mean we have, relatively, plenty of discretionary income but who are the people paying those prices (not to mention what you pay on top of it for parking, food, booze, etc.)?  That's a $3K all in date night easily for not great seats.   

And that's a $1K date night to a first round playoff game .  It would be one thing if people were spending all discretionary income staying but travel still crazy as well.

WTF is the savings rate in the current inflationary environment with this level of discretionary income spend. Can't be great. 

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Mullet Free

Mullet Free 39

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17 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I've always followed ticket/ticket prices going back when I used to buy/sell as a teenage scalper outside of Texas games.   Not sure if there has been much reporting/discussion but ticket inflation the past year or so has been absurd.   I'll argue Texas tickets have been relatively good value compared to pro pricing.  I definitely noticed it with Mavs ticket pricing this year (and never went to a game outside of free firm tix).  Looking today at Stars round 1 playoff tix and lowers between blue line and goal are priced at $325 face (before fees).  That prompted me to look back and saw I paid $185 face for same tickets (appears to be after fees) in round 1 2019.

The craziest was my wife was semi-interested in Taylor Swift in Dallas so I followed that market and never saw anything like it for a big venue concert.   For the Sat night show I didn't see floor or "shitty" club level go less than $1200 or so per and most went well over $2K (and obviously the best seats went well above that).  Obstructed view seats behind the stage where you couldn't see shit were going for > $700.  Told my wife no fucking way.  I mean we have, relatively, plenty of discretionary income but who are the people paying those prices (not to mention what you pay on top of it for parking, food, booze, etc.)?  That's a $3K all in date night easily for not great seats.   

And that's a $1K date night to a first round playoff game .  It would be one thing if people were spending all discretionary income staying but travel still crazy as well.

WTF is the savings rate in the current inflationary environment with this level of discretionary income spend. Can't be great. 

That bitch Taylor Swift with her price gouging. 
 

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51 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I've always followed ticket/ticket prices going back when I used to buy/sell as a teenage scalper outside of Texas games.   Not sure if there has been much reporting/discussion but ticket inflation the past year or so has been absurd.   I'll argue Texas tickets have been relatively good value compared to pro pricing.  I definitely noticed it with Mavs ticket pricing this year (and never went to a game outside of free firm tix).  Looking today at Stars round 1 playoff tix and lowers between blue line and goal are priced at $325 face (before fees).  That prompted me to look back and saw I paid $185 face for same tickets (appears to be after fees) in round 1 2019.

The craziest was my wife was semi-interested in Taylor Swift in Dallas so I followed that market and never saw anything like it for a big venue concert.   For the Sat night show I didn't see floor or "shitty" club level go less than $1200 or so per and most went well over $2K (and obviously the best seats went well above that).  Obstructed view seats behind the stage where you couldn't see shit were going for > $700.  Told my wife no fucking way.  I mean we have, relatively, plenty of discretionary income but who are the people paying those prices (not to mention what you pay on top of it for parking, food, booze, etc.)?  That's a $3K all in date night easily for not great seats.   

And that's a $1K date night to a first round playoff game .  It would be one thing if people were spending all discretionary income staying but travel still crazy as well.

WTF is the savings rate in the current inflationary environment with this level of discretionary income spend. Can't be great. 

I went to a Texas basketball game this year. Thank god someone on here sold tickets at a reasonable price, because the "get in" price was like $80 per ticket on StubHub... for Texas A&M Commerce.

Was going to get tickets to RR Express this week. LAWN SEATS are now $17. A ticket in the stands is now $29 pp. So $100 for our family of three to go watch Minor League Baseball if they want an actual seat. Fuck that. And look at how many seats are available for tonight's game:

image.png.64f10fd050f66b71203f0ed1b239ee44.png

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Skipper

Skipper 6412

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Yeah, that's a bit ridiculous for minor league.  The Rangers still have some "cheap seats" in upper corners for like $10 each.  And lower outfield I think $40.  Of course, what makes it expensive to take a family all the way out to Arlington is price of parking/beer/food.  We'll still likely be going out there soon though.

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Captainant

Captainant 28594

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1 hour ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

I went to a Texas basketball game this year. Thank god someone on here sold tickets at a reasonable price, because the "get in" price was like $80 per ticket on StubHub... for Texas A&M Commerce.

Was going to get tickets to RR Express this week. LAWN SEATS are now $17. A ticket in the stands is now $29 pp. So $100 for our family of three to go watch Minor League Baseball if they want an actual seat. Fuck that. And look at how many seats are available for tonight's game:

image.png.64f10fd050f66b71203f0ed1b239ee44.png

don't forget your $15 per-ticket "digital ticket" fees!

Thank goodness we don't have any commie regulations to stop these companies from earning their god-given right to profitability

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4716

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1 hour ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

I went to a Texas basketball game this year. Thank god someone on here sold tickets at a reasonable price, because the "get in" price was like $80 per ticket on StubHub... for Texas A&M Commerce.

Was going to get tickets to RR Express this week. LAWN SEATS are now $17. A ticket in the stands is now $29 pp. So $100 for our family of three to go watch Minor League Baseball if they want an actual seat. Fuck that. And look at how many seats are available for tonight's game:

image.png.64f10fd050f66b71203f0ed1b239ee44.png

It’s insane.  2023 will be the first year I didn’t attend a Texas basketball or baseball game since 1998.  I also usually buy tickets to every Express game against the Astros affiliate, until this year they were never more than $20/ticket even for the best seats in the house.  This year I only bought for one of those games because they were $32/ticket.  Can’t be sustainable.

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B00M

B00M 6735

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2 hours ago, Skipper said:

WTF is the savings rate in the current inflationary environment with this level of discretionary income spend. Can't be great. 

Allegedly 4.6%

also like half of Americans don’t have $400 to cover and emergency expense

homer simpson episode 6 GIF

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HamsterHookah

HamsterHookah 112

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3 hours ago, Captainant said:

don't forget your $15 per-ticket "digital ticket" fees!

Thank goodness we don't have any commie regulations to stop these companies from earning their god-given right to profitability

To be fair; Being anti-junk fees and anti-Ticketmaster is actually one of the very few bipartisan political issues.

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6790

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11 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

I rarely eat fast food. Went to Wendy's a few days ago and the basic #1 burger combo was more than $11. Odd thing is that the sandwich alone was a little over $6, so you were paying $5 for french fries and soda. I'm not paying $12 (after tax) for a crummy burger combo.

But lots of people are. From the most recent earnings for Wendy's:

"Company restaurant margins expanded by almost 300 basis points in the fourth quarter versus the first quarter, and we opened over 275 restaurants across the globe. Supported by our business momentum and strong liquidity position, I am pleased to announce that our Board of Directors has approved a 100% increase in our quarterly dividend to $0.25 per share and a new $500 million share repurchase authorization."

Wendy’s just ended a 2 for $6 deal with the Dave’s single as a choice along with a chicken sandwich or a couple other options. Seemed like every city worker and outdoor crew knew about it. Lots of 6 dollar options that don’t necessarily get advertised, you just have to use the kiosk to see them.

Combo meals are an absolute rip. 5 dollars for drink and fries when you could order value fries for 1.50 and just get a water cup and put whatever you want in it.

Some company might brave enough to do it, but the next way they’re going to get peoples money is charging a fee to use the drive thru.

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ChickenSandwich

ChickenSandwich 9970

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31 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Wendy’s just ended a 2 for $6 deal with the Dave’s single as a choice along with a chicken sandwich or a couple other options. Seemed like every city worker and outdoor crew knew about it. Lots of 6 dollar options that don’t necessarily get advertised, you just have to use the kiosk to see them.

Combo meals are an absolute rip. 5 dollars for drink and fries when you could order value fries for 1.50 and just get a water cup and put whatever you want in it.

Some company might brave enough to do it, but the next way they’re going to get peoples money is charging a fee to use the drive thru.

It would be easier to switch to drive through only. Maximize take out/ delivery, minimize interior duties to cleaning the kitchen, minimizes staff. 
 

Smaller footprint, cheaper bills and insurance. 

Edited by ChickenSandwich
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B00M

B00M 6735

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1 hour ago, UTGrad98 said:

Burger King charged me 50 cents for a  cup of water the other day. For that small ass flimsy see through plastic cup. This will all come crashing down soon. It is not sustainable. 

Are you saying the economy will come crashing down? Or the fast food industry? Or flimsy cups?

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19473

Posted
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On 4/14/2023 at 9:48 AM, Cheeseweasel said:

Inflation happens because bad companies do bad things evidentially. Weird how until last year, none of these companies realized that all they had to do was "gouging and profiteering" and they'd make more money. I'll bet they are kicking themselves for not thinking of it before.

They didn’t have the smoke screen of “supply chain issues” to hide behind until recently. 

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