2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?

[Fudge Nuggets 19152]

14 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

I worked at Wendy's for two years.  I know what nasty-ass mold the drink dispensers leak into your soda.  No way, even without considering the insane markup.

But did you have slime in the ice machine?

[bernorange 8349]

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, bernorange said:

I can hear this gif. 

Dude looks like Jim Jones if JJ held on another 30 years.

[StassneyHorn 6540]

On 4/14/2023 at 10:34 PM, Incredulity said:

Cool, so add theft to the super friend tips to beat inflation.

pack lunch, steal soda…. What else?

Oh dear

[Mullet Free 40]

On 4/14/2023 at 11:34 PM, Incredulity said:

Cool, so add theft to the super friend tips to beat inflation.

pack lunch, steal soda…. What else?

Have the bank that holds your employer’s funds bailed out. 

[StassneyHorn 6540]

On 4/14/2023 at 10:34 PM, Incredulity said:

Cool, so add theft to the super friend tips to beat inflation.

pack lunch, steal soda…. What else?

The king is also a benevolent king. I’ve done nothing but help you with your clear spending problem.

 

[Mullet Free 40]

Lulz.  treasury with the chart crime. 
 

 

 

[B00M 6280]

Maybe it’s just a generic chart from a prior year they changed the numbers on rather than re-creating? I’ll assume laziness rather than intentional misleading. But 1 to 1.5 trillion dollar annual deficits becoming the norm is really great. Good thing we’ve used all that deficit spending to invest in our future!

Edited April 17, 2023 by B00M

[HoustonHorn 1061]

It would be easier to switch to drive through only. Maximize take out/ delivery, minimize interior duties to cleaning the kitchen, minimizes staff. 
 
Smaller footprint, cheaper bills and insurance. 

So you're saying ShortStop was ahead of the curve?

[ChickenSandwich 9798]

Also had the double drive through before most. 

[HamsterHookah 112]

We've had "greedflation" which was never fully accepted by economists and now "excuseflation":

You recently identified a phenomenon that you call “excuseflation.” Tell me what it means.

I think a lot of people at this point have heard about this idea that companies, you know, maybe they’re taking advantage of the current environment in order to raise prices and really gouging their customers.

The thing about excuseflation is it’s sort of grounded in truth. It’s the idea that companies are using these once-in-a-lifetime disruptions. Think about the supply chain hiccups that we’ve had. Think about the Ukraine-Russia war. And they’re using those one-off disruptions as an excuse to raise prices. And that sounds fair enough. You know, companies, they have expenses. If their input costs go up, maybe it makes sense for them to pass some of those on to customers. But where it starts to become insidious is when they’re raising prices so much that they’re seeing their profits go up quite substantially as well.

Can you give me an example of something that has been excuseflated?

Sure. So one of my favorite examples, because, you know, I love these personally, but chicken wings. Let’s talk about chicken wings and Wingstop. Wingstop is a very large purveyor of very delicious chicken wings. And what they’ve been saying on their earnings calls is that they have been raising their prices for their delicious chicken wings. And the reason they’ve been doing that is because the wholesale cost of your basic chicken wing went up quite a lot during the pandemic. We had a lot of disruptions at various farms, chicken farms with labor shortages and things like that. So it made sense that chicken wing prices went up and the company started passing those on to consumers.

The issue now, though, is that we have seen a substantial drop in chicken wing prices. And yet the company isn’t saying that it’s going to start dropping its prices. What it’s discovered, much like a lot of other businesses at the moment, is that actually this strategy of making up what you lose in sales volume with higher prices, so you’re selling fewer products, but you’re selling them at higher prices, [is] a viable strategy in the current environment, and it’s working for a lot of companies because profit margins are up.

We spoke to the owner of a bakery over in Chicago. And, you know, I think there’s a tendency when you think about things like greedflation or excuseflation, you think about these big corporations, these really sophisticated corporations that are, you know, formulating their pricing strategies and how to get the most out of customers. But this is a phenomenon that also is endemic in smaller and midsize businesses. And this baker in Chicago kind of laid it out for us. He said:

Whether it’s rye flour or bird flu, that impacts eggs when it makes national news just running a business, it’s an opportunity to increase the prices without getting a whole bunch of complaining from the customers. It’s not that we’re out there price gouging, but, you know, timing can be everything. —Ken Jarosch, owner of Jarosch bakery, as heard on Odd Lots

Shouldn’t competition push prices down? If I’m a business owner, I’m going to let consumers know that I can get them stuff much cheaper than the other guys who have excuseflated everything. Shouldn’t that be happening?

This is really the key thing about excuseflation and where it differs a little bit from greedflation. If a company starts raising its prices just because it can, then in theory, according to the basic rules of capitalism and economics, someone should come in and undercut them and steal all their business away. But the thing about excuseflation is it allows companies to raise prices all at the same time and all together.

 

The article then goes on to logically follow the thread that this is causing a cartel-like economic situation: https://www.vox.com/podcasts/23682466/inflation-prices-us-economy

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

We are testing the term "ItsTheOtherGuysFaultflation" to see if that sticks.

[Neonmoon 38127]

17 hours ago, Mullet Free said:

Lulz.  treasury with the chart crime. 
 

 

 

Laziness 

 

[Guest]

 

[Trey3216 15325]

2 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

 

It's still up from an elevated area last year.  Pace is slowing, but up 4.98% YoY on top of 9+% last year still isn't pretty.  

[Guest]

Just now, Trey3216 said:

It's still up from an elevated area last year.  Pace is slowing, but up 4.98% YoY on top of 9+% last year still isn't pretty.  

Lol.

[Trey3216 15325]

2 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Lol.

Don't like facts I suppose?  

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Don't like facts I suppose?  

Well if the bar is always... "yeah, but look what it used to be!!!1!" then there is no winning. Inflation could be 2%, but that won't change the fact it was 9% at one point I suppose.

I choose to be content that inflation has slowed sharply and shows a good trend instead of seemingly only being happy when the news is bad.

[Trey3216 15325]

5 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Well if the bar is always... "yeah, but look what it used to be!!!1!" then there is no winning. Inflation could be 2%, but that won't change the fact it was 9% at one point I suppose.

I choose to be content that inflation has slowed sharply and shows a good trend instead of seemingly only being happy when the news is bad.

I'm happy it's "down" as well, but it's still inflation.  It's higher than normal inflation on top of much higher than normal inflation on top of higher than normal inflation, albeit at a declining rate of advance.  

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

I'm happy it's "down" as well, but it's still inflation.  It's higher than normal inflation on top of much higher than normal inflation on top of higher than normal inflation, albeit at a declining rate of advance.  

And like I said. Lol.

[Mullet Free 40]

2 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

 

 

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Mullet Free said:

 

I would not call it dead yet, and it wouldn't surprise me to see it take MUCH longer to go from 5% -> 2%.

But it's taken a nice nosedive in the past year.

[jimmyjazz 45579]

DT cracks me up.

[B00M 6280]

1 hour ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

I would not call it dead yet, and it wouldn't surprise me to see it take MUCH longer to go from 5% -> 2%.

But it's taken a nice nosedive in the past year.

Thing to watch out for now is overshooting the target 2% as recession sets in. The fed has lots of practice fighting deflation but it sure would be cool if some dust could collect on the printer. I think the fed will be worried about reigniting inflation so they’ll be more tactical with the QE and mostly allow this overdue recession to play out. If they get carried away with the printer, it’s not hard to envision stagflation which would mean the fed failed both its missions (stable pricing, low unemployment). So I’ll trust JPow’s balls here and lock in some treasuries at about 4% that mature in like 5 years. Fuck it lets go

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

DT cracks me up.

Imagine it's a bit of a shocker after circle jerking all day long.

[jimmyjazz 45579]

8 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Imagine it's a bit of a shocker after circle jerking all day long.

That's your play, not mine.

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Imagine it's a bit of a shocker after circle jerking all day long.

Would you say there is a "record high" amount of circle jerking in CR?

[Incredulity 11563]

25 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

That's your play, not mine.

Truly a rapist’s wit.

[Incredulity 11563]

28 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Would you say there is a "record high" amount of circle jerking in CR?

17-20

imo

[Hefeweizen 5307]

So hang on, is decreasing inflation good or bad?  It’s all so confusing for a Neanderthal.

[bernorange 8349]

38 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

So hang on, is decreasing inflation good or bad?  

How good are you at digesting huge heapings of nuance?

[Mullet Free 40]

1 hour ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Would you say there is a "record high" amount of circle jerking in CR?

They’re close to the highs. Record was maybe after a recent indictment. 

 

[Parliament 14146]

29 minutes ago, bernorange said:

How good are you at digesting huge heapings of nuance?

Vic Mackey has a food thread.  And this isn't it.

[jimmyjazz 45579]

1 hour ago, bernorange said:

How good are you at digesting huge heapings of nuance?

The only "nuance" around here is "D POTUS bad".

[Mullet Free 40]

21 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

The only "nuance" around here is "D POTUS bad".

Oh, come on. You’re a little touchy. This thread is more Fed bad than anything else. 

[Trey3216 15325]

46 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

The only "nuance" around here is "D POTUS bad".

[Hefeweizen 5307]

Oh you can’t spell butthurt without brrrrrrrrrt.  
 

Starting to see.

[jimmyjazz 45579]

35 minutes ago, Mullet Free said:

Oh, come on. You’re a little touchy. This thread is more Fed bad than anything else. 

Is that your idea of "nuance"?

[B00M 6280]

4 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

The only "nuance" around here is "D POTUS bad".

Jimmy you’re too fucking old to be dragging bullshit around a message board. Once again it is you injecting politics in this thread. 

[Guest]

I get a kick out of "supply chain issues didn't really happen, or are overstated."

For years, at work our in-house fill rates for orders were in the 98-99% range, and the 98's were the shittiest of the shitty.  Last week some of our best/ most fortunate distribution centers hit 90% for the first time in 3 years.

Schedule the fucking parades. We were genuinely ecstatic...for some subpar AF performance relative to our longtime standards.

[Guest]

12 hours ago, Mullet Free said:

Oh, come on. You’re a little touchy. This thread is more Fed bad than anything else. 

I'd say 40% Fed bad, 20% Dem bad, and 40% no matter what the economic news is, things are absolutely terrible. 

One day we will go into recession and I think this thread might celebrate like January 4, 2006.

[troph 24577]

Lotta arm chair QBs up in here. Hindsight is 20/20 and yet many past decisions were the right ones - including stimulus and even public health decisions. Millions died, mysterious new virus, yes in hindsight business shut downs were not the best move (done by R’s and D’s mind you) but I do not believe it to be a conspiracy of any sort. The entire global economy became destabilized and unpredictable based on multiple macro destabilizing factors. The pursuit of profit left supply chains weak and ignored systemic flaws relying on China. I think the only true critical error was assuming inflation was transitory. Since then I think the fed has used what it has available. If we hold steady at 5% and it continues to decline slowly without a double spike we may just avoid the disaster of the last major inflationary cycle.   And thus far we are on target for what the so called experts claimed - end of 2023 for on target inflation under 3%. Will we struggle with deflation? I don’t know. I guess we will see.  I have seen reports suggesting the labor shortage is no longer due to workers on the sidelines but now due to sustained boomer retirements. We knew that was coming for the last 20 years so I’m not sure deflation is as much of a risk given the macro labor situation. We also have significant growth opportunities with climate change and sustainability projects as well as infrastructure needs so I’m rather positive on the next decade once we get through this. 
 

and some of you are so negative it makes me think you need to get laid.
 

come at me…

 

 

 

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

2 minutes ago, troph said:

come at me…

Nah. Because I agree with you. 

[Snake Diggity 4614]

17 minutes ago, troph said:

Lotta arm chair QBs up in here. Hindsight is 20/20 and yet many past decisions were the right ones - including stimulus and even public health decisions. Millions died, mysterious new virus, yes in hindsight business shut downs were not the best move (done by R’s and D’s mind you) but I do not believe it to be a conspiracy of any sort. The entire global economy became destabilized and unpredictable based on multiple macro destabilizing factors. The pursuit of profit left supply chains weak and ignored systemic flaws relying on China. I think the only true critical error was assuming inflation was transitory. Since then I think the fed has used what it has available. If we hold steady at 5% and it continues to decline slowly without a double spike we may just avoid the disaster of the last major inflationary cycle.   And thus far we are on target for what the so called experts claimed - end of 2023 for on target inflation under 3%. Will we struggle with deflation? I don’t know. I guess we will see.  I have seen reports suggesting the labor shortage is no longer due to workers on the sidelines but now due to sustained boomer retirements. We knew that was coming for the last 20 years so I’m not sure deflation is as much of a risk given the macro labor situation. We also have significant growth opportunities with climate change and sustainability projects as well as infrastructure needs so I’m rather positive on the next decade once we get through this. 
 

and some of you are so negative it makes me think you need to get laid.
 

come at me…

 

 

 

Agree with all this, although I do think that last round of stimulus pushed thru was overkill, and said so at the time.  But I agree the main mistake was assuming inflation was transitory (and I was guilty of that too).  And I agree that labor shortages are due to demographics, not laziness, so they’re here to stay.

I am not sure how decoupling from China is gonna play out and there’s a lot of geopolitical unknowns hanging out there, but there’s also a lot of reason for optimism.

[Parliament 14146]

I agree with you.  Also, I need to get laid.

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

One Troph to unite them all.

[troph 24577]

36 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Agree with all this, although I do think that last round of stimulus pushed thru was overkill, and said so at the time.  But I agree the main mistake was assuming inflation was transitory (and I was guilty of that too).  And I agree that labor shortages are due to demographics, not laziness, so they’re here to stay.

I am not sure how decoupling from China is gonna play out and there’s a lot of geopolitical unknowns hanging out there, but there’s also a lot of reason for optimism.

The bump in the eidl loans the last round was a really bad idea. I’m also not sure the grant programs in hospitality and entertainment were appropriate either so I agree it went too far. But that’s only one factor in inflation - the idea that it was some master cause is BS.  It’s always supply and demand. Demand shifted radically with macro behavior changes and stimulus, and supply shifted radically with mass labor shifts, and supply chain problems.  It’s not rocket science we are here and it’s not any politician’s fault. I bet in a year we are through it.  I bet we end up with a nice 6-7 year run after this too. 

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

2 minutes ago, troph said:

I bet we end up with a nice 6-7 year run after this too.

Subscribed.

[troph 24577]

43 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Agree with all this, although I do think that last round of stimulus pushed thru was overkill, and said so at the time.  But I agree the main mistake was assuming inflation was transitory (and I was guilty of that too).  And I agree that labor shortages are due to demographics, not laziness, so they’re here to stay.

I am not sure how decoupling from China is gonna play out and there’s a lot of geopolitical unknowns hanging out there, but there’s also a lot of reason for optimism.

If we can finally reestablish our broad manufacturing base (not just cutting edge stuff and limited strategic manufacturing) in the US I’ll be thrilled. That alone is a massive improvement. 

[jimmyjazz 45579]

The rocket launch started in April 2021 (March 2021 2.6%, April 2021 4.2%).  That March print was essentially "normal", as inflation rates had bounced around below 3% for years.

It's going to be a while before we back get to that level, but if the current trend continues, we should see that ~ 4.2% number in the next couple of months.  In context, that's pretty good news.