2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?

[Upgrayedd 5,916]

11 minutes ago, tbone_ said:

Total nightmare retrofitting office to resi. Zero times out of 10 it come in anywhere near budget. Creating opening windows and balconies suck.

We wouldn’t touch it with a 100 fr pole. There’s one going on here in Phoenix. It’s a year and a half past schedule. No way it makes money.

Much much better to just build from scratch.

Which one is that?

8 minutes ago, UT_OB1 said:

Every. Fucking. Week. 
 

Hey, let’s turn our attic (single story house) in to an office/ library. We can just move the AC and water heater, and knock out those boards that are in the way attached to the underside of the roof. 

You never give her ideas serious consideration.  You ever think about that?

[Storm the Field 5,367]

As  expected, Fed raises 25 BPS and then signals a likely pause.

 

[Mullet Free 39]

I’m a bit confused how this would work. Borrow money to buyback treasuries at different maturities that need liquidity for collateral markets to function properly? 
 

 

The depth and liquidity of the UST market is always touted. Guess it’s not deep or liquid enough. 

[Cheeseweasel 26,443]

Congratulations Wally Fairway is the new FED secretary. 

[tbone_ 14,464]

Which one is that?

One Camelback. SEC Central and Camelback.

[Upgrayedd 5,916]

1 hour ago, tbone_ said:

 

One Camelback. SEC Central and Camelback.

 

Well, the whole UEB Katerra thing didn’t help I bet.

[tbone_ 14,464]

Did they start that deal? I didn’t remember.

[Upgrayedd 5,916]

11 minutes ago, tbone_ said:

Did they start that deal? I didn’t remember.

UEB started.  Absorbed and spontaneously combusted by Katerra.  I don’t know who finished.

[MonkeyDoughnut 10,810]

On 5/2/2023 at 7:49 PM, Mullet Free said:

Put this here instead of SVB thread since it addresses Fed policy as much as banking screw ups. 1/2 of banks insolvent?

 

3 more regionals rumored to being shopped around...

PacWest looks to be next one in line...

[Captainant 28,596]

I don't know why all y'all are so worried about bank collapses - the government will cover all the oligarchs billionaires losses and uninsured funds and pass on the more expensive rates and fees to consumers. Gotta make sure there's enough money at the top to trickle down, or something 

[52-80 19,377]

On 5/3/2023 at 2:49 AM, Mullet Free said:

Put this here instead of SVB thread since it addresses Fed policy as much as banking screw ups. 1/2 of banks insolvent?

yeah, it's probably the fed (who has a reactive role), not this little part in the orange that requires the treasury to constant pump bonds into the credit market...

 

[Mullet Free 39]

1 hour ago, Captainant said:

I don't know why all y'all are so worried about bank collapses - the government will cover all the oligarchs billionaires losses and uninsured funds and pass on the more expensive rates and fees to consumers. Gotta make sure there's enough money at the top to trickle down, or something 

 

[52-80 19,377]

i admit thats a good new trope: let regional banks collapse to Own The Billionaires.  because billionaires keep their money in First Republic and PacWest. 

[Cheeseweasel 26,443]

32 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

i admit thats a good new trope: let regional banks collapse to Own The Billionaires.  because billionaires keep their money in First Republic and PacWest. 

The idea of Billionaires sitting on piles of money Scrooge McDuck style is hilarious, but consider the ignorance of the source.

[HamsterHookah 112]

This Star Wars Day, let’s take comfort that our current banking crisis is nowhere near as bleak as the one the Galactic financial sector faced following the Empire’s collapse.

Setting the scene: At the end of Star Wars: Episode VI — Return of the Jedi, the Galactic banking system was on the brink of failure. A $419 quintillion government project, the second Death Star, had just been destroyed by the Rebel Alliance, and the Galactic economy was set to enter a deep, deep depression.

How to avoid catastrophe? Well, you had the usual suspects pushing bitcoin, but the only real solution was a massive bailout to save distressed banks. In a 2015 paper, Zachary Feinstein, an assistant professor at Washington University in St. Louis, attempted to calculate how much the Rebel Alliance would have to spend on a bank bailout.

What he found: Estimating that the Intergalactic Banking Clan contained 17,501 systemically important banks that were too big to fail, and that the Galactic economy’s annual Gross Galactic Product (GGP, similar to GDP) was $4.6 sextillion, Feinstein calculated that a rescue package would need to be at least 15% of GGP in order to prevent “catastrophic economic collapse.” That amounts to a $690 quintillion bailout. 

Makes the $20 billion the FDIC spent rescuing SVB depositors look pretty cheap

[Cheeseweasel 26,443]

So this is how democracy dies, with thunderous applause brrrrrrrrrrrrt.

[Incredulity 11,881]

4 hours ago, Captainant said:

I don't know why all y'all are so worried about bank collapses - the government will cover all the oligarchs billionaires losses and uninsured funds and pass on the more expensive rates and fees to consumers. Gotta make sure there's enough money at the top to trickle down, or something 

keep doing your part, comrade.

[52-80 19,377]

2 hours ago, HamsterHookah said:

What he found: Estimating that the Intergalactic Banking Clan contained 17,501 systemically important banks that were too big to fail, and that the Galactic economy’s annual Gross Galactic Product (GGP, similar to GDP) was $4.6 sextillion, Feinstein calculated that a rescue package would need to be at least 15% of GGP in order to prevent “catastrophic economic collapse.” That amounts to a $690 quintillion bailout.

what the fuck does the galactic produce anyway?  dont their citizens just swap old aircrafts parts back and forth in make-shift markets?

 

1 hour ago, Incredulity said:

keep doing your part, comrade.

robespierre ended up beheaded on the guillotine and buried in a common grave

Edited May 4, 2023 by 52-80

[Incredulity 11,881]

13 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

robespierre ended up beheaded on the guillotine and buried in a common grave

[Parliament 14,618]

4 hours ago, Mullet Free said:

 

He's right, you know.

[jimmyjazz 47,310]

For the youngsters:  inflation was above the current level for all but 2 months of a 9.5 year stretch between 1973 and 1982.  It was in double digit territory (10% to 14.8%) for 46 months of that timeframe.

Imagine THAT pain.  Nobody likes 5%, but holy smokes it was brutal.  At least CD's returned a good rate, savers actually accumulated some money.

[HamsterHookah 112]

24 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

For the youngsters:  inflation was above the current level for all but 2 months of a 9.5 year stretch between 1973 and 1982.  It was in double digit territory (10% to 14.8%) for 46 months of that timeframe.

Imagine THAT pain.  Nobody likes 5%, but holy smokes it was brutal.  At least CD's returned a good rate, savers actually accumulated some money.

Insanity.

[jimmyjazz 47,310]

Plus, gas rationing, and thermostats in winter on 55 F.

#uphillbothwaysinsnow

[Armybrat 41,437]

34 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

For the youngsters:  inflation was above the current level for all but 2 months of a 9.5 year stretch between 1973 and 1982.  It was in double digit territory (10% to 14.8%) for 46 months of that timeframe.

Imagine THAT pain.  Nobody likes 5%, but holy smokes it was brutal.  At least CD's returned a good rate, savers actually accumulated some money.

45 years ago a math teacher at my school closed on a new house at 18%.

[Cheeseweasel 26,443]

7 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

45 years ago a math teacher at my school closed on a new house at 18%.

Rumor has it, she still hasn't touched the principal (or principle).

[Armybrat 41,437]

‘Twas a middle age he… from Maine.

[troph 25,247]

On 5/3/2023 at 11:09 AM, tbone_ said:

Total nightmare retrofitting office to resi. Zero times out of 10 it come in anywhere near budget. Creating opening windows and balconies suck.

We wouldn’t touch it with a 100 fr pole. There’s one going on here in Phoenix. It’s a year and a half past schedule. No way it makes money.

Much much better to just build from scratch.

someone will make money on it, just not the first or second owner.

[troph 25,247]

dude the early 80s was the first go-round for me with money issues, my folks were so fucking poor back then, i'm sure it was them but also the economy, holy shit balls.  then dot com crash, financial crisis, pandemic, and now our inflation problem round it all out.  being a human sucks.

[gsoda3 3,362]

37 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

45 years ago a math teacher at my school closed on a new house at 18%.

how long were the mortgage terms back then? 

[52-80 19,377]

38 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

45 years ago a math teacher at my school closed on a new house at 18%.

From 0-100 how high was her credit score? 

[troph 25,247]

On 5/3/2023 at 11:12 AM, UT_OB1 said:

Every. Fucking. Week. 
 

Hey, let’s turn our attic (single story house) in to an office/ library. We can just move the AC and water heater, and knock out those boards that are in the way attached to the underside of the roof. 

my wife will gladly give you a bid. ha.

[Cheeseweasel 26,443]

9 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

how long were the mortgage terms back then? 

[Armybrat 41,437]

13 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

how long were the mortgage terms back then? 

His was a 30 year stretch, IIRC.

 

[Trey3216 15,453]

4 hours ago, HamsterHookah said:

This Star Wars Day, let’s take comfort that our current banking crisis is nowhere near as bleak as the one the Galactic financial sector faced following the Empire’s collapse.

Setting the scene: At the end of Star Wars: Episode VI — Return of the Jedi, the Galactic banking system was on the brink of failure. A $419 quintillion government project, the second Death Star, had just been destroyed by the Rebel Alliance, and the Galactic economy was set to enter a deep, deep depression.

How to avoid catastrophe? Well, you had the usual suspects pushing bitcoin, but the only real solution was a massive bailout to save distressed banks. In a 2015 paper, Zachary Feinstein, an assistant professor at Washington University in St. Louis, attempted to calculate how much the Rebel Alliance would have to spend on a bank bailout.

What he found: Estimating that the Intergalactic Banking Clan contained 17,501 systemically important banks that were too big to fail, and that the Galactic economy’s annual Gross Galactic Product (GGP, similar to GDP) was $4.6 sextillion, Feinstein calculated that a rescue package would need to be at least 15% of GGP in order to prevent “catastrophic economic collapse.” That amounts to a $690 quintillion bailout. 

Makes the $20 billion the FDIC spent rescuing SVB depositors look pretty cheap

Well, I just got done watching Season 6 Episodes 6&7 of The Clone Wars, and saw the banking system fail the first time after The Banking Clan was not making the Separatists repay their loans and were trying to charge exhorbitant interest rates on loans to the Republic.  Dooku and Sidious' plan to run the banks into the ground to create the empire is almost fully underway at that point.  

[Cheeseweasel 26,443]

3 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Well, I just got done watching Season 6 Episodes 6&7 of The Clone Wars, and saw the banking system fail the first time after The Banking Clan was not making the Separatists repay their loans and were trying to charge exhorbitant interest rates on loans to the Republic.  Dooku and Sidious' plan to run the banks into the ground to create the empire is almost fully underway at that point.  

Rebel scum.

[bernorange 8,386]

The economic malaise of the Jimmy Carter years sucked ass.  We are still enjoying today the fruits of shitty fiscal discipline and monetary policy many decades later.  Huzzah for shitty system design.

[UT_OB1 2,266]

1 hour ago, troph said:

my wife will gladly give you a bid. ha.

Oh I’m sure it can be done by someone who knows what they’re doing. But the cost to make sure the roof doesn’t collapse and the ground doesn’t give way due to the metric fuck ton of books (shit) that would get stored there, all to gain a...15x20 area? Would be smarter to light all my money on fire and move in to a cardboard box by the river. 

Edited May 4, 2023 by UT_OB1

[tbone_ 14,464]

someone will make money on it, just not the first or second owner.

Right. But not many of them will happen if the first guy keeps getting crushed.

[Mullet Free 39]

 

The transcript is a quick read. Just a few new numbers. 

TL;Dr

Our fiscal situation is utterly fucked.
 

Since there’s no chance any of these assholes cut spending or raise taxes enough to matter, debt monetization and resulting high inflation are givens over medium to long term.  

[40acredropout 2,911]

1 hour ago, Mullet Free said:

 

The transcript is a quick read. Just a few new numbers. 

TL;Dr

Our fiscal situation is utterly fucked.
 

Since there’s no chance any of these assholes cut spending or raise taxes enough to matter, debt monetization and resulting high inflation are givens over medium to long term.  

The millenials fucked up everything, smh

[StassneyHorn 6,790]

@Mullet FreeYou sound poor. Have you tried moving to Mexico?

 

Edited May 10, 2023 by StassneyHorn

[NotActuallyALonghorn 5,005]

Moving to Mexico only works if you already have a reliable source of income. There is a reason lots of them choose to come here despite the challenges that come with that. Don't get me wrong, I love Mexico. There are lots of awesome places down there that most Americans will never even hear about, but if you look at the cost of property  and goods that aren't domestically produced down there and then look at what the average income level is in the heartland of Mexico, things can get pretty tough for the average Mexican who wasn't born into privilege. 

[Cheeseweasel 26,443]

8 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

@Mullet FreeYou sound poor. Have you tried moving to Mexico?

 

 

[Mullet Free 39]

markets like it. Looks like we think hiking cycle is over. 

[Cheeseweasel 26,443]

35 minutes ago, Mullet Free said:

Looks like we think hiking cycle is over. 

[Snake Diggity 4,719]

The Fed has shown that they ignore everything except unemployment and inflation, which is their mandate.  Their inflation target is 3% and the numbers are still coming in higher than that, while unemployment remains at historic lows.  I will be very surprised if they don’t raise again next meeting, and keep raising 0.25% at a time until the YoY CPI comes in under 4%.

[gmr548 16,704]

Moving to Mexico only works if you already have a reliable source of income. There is a reason lots of them choose to come here despite the challenges that come with that. Don't get me wrong, I love Mexico. There are lots of awesome places down there that most Americans will never even hear about, but if you look at the cost of property  and goods that aren't domestically produced down there and then look at what the average income level is in the heartland of Mexico, things can get pretty tough for the average Mexican who wasn't born into privilege. 

You’re correct but I’d also add that migration from Mexico is way, way down over the past decade. Like almost net zero when accounting for US to MX migration down.

There are obviously migrants from farther south coming to the US through Mexico. But not many Mexican nationals in the grand scheme of things.

[gmr548 16,704]

The Fed has shown that they ignore everything except unemployment and inflation, which is their mandate.  Their inflation target is 3% and the numbers are still coming in higher than that, while unemployment remains at historic lows.  I will be very surprised if they don’t raise again next meeting, and keep raising 0.25% at a time until the YoY CPI comes in under 4%.

If a default is averted I get the feeling they’re going to sit tight for a cycle or two and see what happens in the job market and see what inflation looks like as summer 2022 starts to roll off the books. If neither one starts to slow rapidly then maybe we see additional increases, but I think it may be more of a hold at the current restrictive levels longer than planned than a hike way above the initial target scenario.

If there’s a default then who knows.

[Snake Diggity 4,719]

26 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

If a default is averted I get the feeling they’re going to sit tight for a cycle or two and see what happens in the job market and see what inflation looks like as summer 2022 starts to roll off the books. If neither one starts to slow rapidly then maybe we see additional increases, but I think it may be more of a hold at the current restrictive levels longer than planned than a hike way above the initial target scenario.

If there’s a default then who knows.

Default probably gets unemployment high enough to warrant rate cuts within a months time.  Default would be crazy and I’d bet against it but nothing about US politics shocks me anymore.

US economic downside possibilities, next 30 days: Avian flu, debt ceiling broken, Ukrainian offensive failing

Upside possibilities: Long term debt ceiling agreement, Ukrainian breakthrough

[Captainant 28,596]

2 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

Default probably gets unemployment high enough to warrant rate cuts within a months time.  Default would be crazy and I’d bet against it but nothing about US politics shocks me anymore.

US economic downside possibilities, next 30 days: Avian flu, debt ceiling broken, Ukrainian offensive failing

Upside possibilities: Long term debt ceiling agreement, Ukrainian breakthrough

I'd split the difference in terms of possibilities that you're presenting. I'm not feeling rosy about the debt ceiling, considering the speaker is dealing with fallout from a key vote for his spot that just got charged with 13 felonies and they're still playing fuck fuck games

Edited May 10, 2023 by Captainant