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2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?

Reagan1k

By Reagan1k
in Business and Markets

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52-80
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Bateshorn
Bateshorn

The only thing more predictable than the GOP running up huge deficits on tax cuts and military spending, is each one suddenly becoming horrified by deficit spending 5 mins after a Democrat is sworn in

PilotsError
PilotsError

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Guest

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Mullet Free said:

Nobody’s defaulting on anything. Don’t be stupid. 

 

47 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Yup, The annual hand-wringing is annoying.

I'm usually in the same camp, but actually give this one a non-zero chance. 

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TxTower

TxTower 686

Posted
Posted
The Fed has shown that they ignore everything except unemployment and inflation, which is their mandate.  Their inflation target is 3% and the numbers are still coming in higher than that, while unemployment remains at historic lows.  I will be very surprised if they don’t raise again next meeting, and keep raising 0.25% at a time until the YoY CPI comes in under 4%.

This is correct…., unless they break more shit. Then all bets are off.
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Captainant

Captainant 28596

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, Mullet Free said:

Debt ceiling related. I didn’t want to share in CR because, it’s a terrible place you see 

Her posts are almost exclusively jUsTaSkInGqUesTiOnS and grievanceposts that are tidied up talking points, so yeah I get why you wouldn't want to post that outside of your hugbox

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B00M

B00M 6736

Posted
Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Her posts are almost exclusively jUsTaSkInGqUesTiOnS and grievanceposts that are tidied up talking points, so yeah I get why you wouldn't want to post that outside of your hugbox

You know, sometimes people can say something funny and there’s no reason to dig into who they are or what their motivations may have been. Like hugbox. Objectively funny regardless of your intent. 

Edited by B00M
Also I have the weirdest boner rn
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Mullet Free

Mullet Free 39

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Her posts are almost exclusively jUsTaSkInGqUesTiOnS and grievanceposts that are tidied up talking points, so yeah I get why you wouldn't want to post that outside of your hugbox

Props for the term hugbox. 
 

I’ve never clicked on the lady’s profile. Someone I follow RT’d it. 
 

Now, go back to CR for your hugs and wiener tugs. 
 

37561-E5-F-67-BC-4-B8-B-AFBE-4-AF7-CD8-E

 

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52-80

52-80 19377

Posted
Posted
18 hours ago, Mullet Free said:

Nobody’s defaulting on anything. Don’t be stupid. 

Yup.  Default and good luck borrowing money (issuing bonds) at reasonable rates.  Its like a chronic borrower filing bankruptcy voluntarily... aint gonna happen until the walls close in.  Aint nobody on either side of the aisle whos gonna want that. 

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4719

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

PPI was out today but I guess giferbating is more fun

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/11/wholesale-prices-rose-just-0point2percent-in-april-less-than-estimate-as-inflation-pressures-ease.html

Any body got insight into the cause of the spread between PPI and CPI and when/if the gap is expected to close?  PPI seems to be where it needs to be for rates to chill but Fed reacts to CPI afaik.

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26906

Posted
Posted (edited)
22 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

 

I'm usually in the same camp, but actually give this one a non-zero chance. 

It's 50-50 at best. Unlike previous years you've got a significant portion of the house majority that is willing to default on the debt for ideological reasons, and the politically weakest, least technically capable speaker since reconstruction. Anyone reading this should have a plan, and I'm not at all kidding. 

Edited by Bozo_Casanova
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Posted
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Just now, Cheeseweasel said:

Weird to think "living within our means" is now considered "ideological". 

Is this fucking serious? How many times was the debt ceiling raised under the other guy? And how much debt was added during that four-year time period? 

It's absolutely ideological.

We need to live in our means. We've needed to for a long time. But to say that's the force that drives one side is completely detached from reality.

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52-80

52-80 19377

Posted
Posted

My brothers in christ, the debt level IS the debt ceiling.  In the same way my next beer will be my last beer.

IMG_1058.thumb.jpeg.eeb5c6f2164011ad84766a55b099a3fe.jpeg

lets just stop the charades about the debt ceiling.

 

the annual budget balance is a debate of legitimacy tho, and running a surplus *is* possible and has been done in the past.

(and if you axe me…moar taxes).  

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26906

Posted
Posted (edited)
52 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Weird to think "living within our means" is now considered "ideological". 

Defaulting on debts we have already incurred on purpose in order to prove a point is not "living within our means". The faith and credit of the United States is at risk, not to mention the global economy

Edited by Bozo_Casanova
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52-80

52-80 19377

Posted
Posted

this aint cool

image.png.39b7ab5c189c125fe9d7704ea6e1ae9a.png

 

and prior times the gov estimated its future spending... lol didnt anticipate spending that much to service the debt

image.png.0e169ded48137e9f1c02a48a27e04c11.png

 

FY2022

Cost of debt was equal to .... total corporate income taxes; entire student loan program; income security program; medicaid; all of federal civilian and military retirement benefits plus veterans income securiy plus "certain programs enacted in response to the coronavirus pandemic".  cool cool

 

economic-profits-and-fed.png

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Js1

Js1 87286

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Anyone reading this should have a plan, and I'm not at all kidding. 

Same plan as the zombie apocalypse, civil war, alien invasion or WW3 -

Die quickly. It ain’t gonna be worth it

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Mullet Free

Mullet Free 39

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Seriously. It's the end of the Pax Americana and there's no coming back.

5853-B533-8-B44-4-A6-A-B641-CA1-DF801-A5

The global debt supercycle has to end at some point. This isn’t it.

 

27 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

I would recommend crypto currency.  I’ve heard it’s a great hedge against sovereign default.

E8-E653-B7-5-DDC-4313-8494-53-BBF5192612

I know you’re being a dipshit, but when large sovereigns end up defaulting who will people trust? 

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 107011

Posted
Posted
E8-E653-B7-5-DDC-4313-8494-53-BBF5192612.gif
I know you’re being a dipshit, but when large sovereigns end up defaulting who will people trust? 

You think the answer is “bros.”
The actual answer is “no one.”

Kinda like when a band of troglodyte warlords overthrows a government. They all think they’re gonna be president. In reality…nobody is, and you become Somalia or some shit.
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Mullet Free

Mullet Free 39

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


You think the answer is “bros.”
The actual answer is “no one.”

Kinda like when a band of troglodyte warlords overthrows a government. They all think they’re gonna be president. In reality…nobody is, and you become Somalia or some shit.

Good news Brisket. Your ignorance of the subject matter caused you to actually agree with me.  
 

When institutional trust is severely damaged or lost, people will have the option of moving to a trustless currency and monetary system in Bitcoin. 
 

I’ll end the bitcoin discussion on this thread with a famous Satoshi quote. 

“The root problem with conventional currency is all the trust that's required to make it work. The central bank must be trusted not to debase the currency, but the history of fiat currencies is full of breaches of that trust. Banks must be trusted to hold our money and transfer it electronically, but they lend it out in waves of credit bubbles with barely a fraction in reserve. We have to trust them with our privacy, trust them not to let identity thieves drain our accounts.”

 

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 107011

Posted
Posted
Good news Brisket. Your ignorance of the subject matter caused you to actually agree with me.  
 
When institutional trust is severely damaged or lost, people will have the option of moving to a trustless currency and monetary system in Bitcoin. 
 
I’ll end the bitcoin discussion on this thread with a famous Satoshi quote. 
“The root problem with conventional currency is all the trust that's required to make it work. The central bank must be trusted not to debase the currency, but the history of fiat currencies is full of breaches of that trust. Banks must be trusted to hold our money and transfer it electronically, but they lend it out in waves of credit bubbles with barely a fraction in reserve. We have to trust them with our privacy, trust them not to let identity thieves drain our accounts.”
 

Dear god. That you actually think that means I agree with you is staggering in its idiocy.

When it all goes to shit, true absolute shit, the ONLY things of actual value will be things that 1) help you survive (food, water, etc) and 2) things that give you power (guns, ammo, loyal troops). Crypto will be as worthless as anything else with no inherent value.
That’s the fucking neon-bright truth you crypto morons can’t grasp, even though it’s right in front of you.
You dream of just enough of a collapse to make crypto truly valuable, but you’re too dense to realize that collapses don’t just stop at the point you want.
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Hefeweizen

Hefeweizen 5453

Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, Mullet Free said:

5853-B533-8-B44-4-A6-A-B641-CA1-DF801-A5

The global debt supercycle has to end at some point. This isn’t it.

 

E8-E653-B7-5-DDC-4313-8494-53-BBF5192612

I know you’re being a dipshit, but when large sovereigns end up defaulting who will people trust? 

Luckily I can be a dipshit by choice.  You just come by it naturally.

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Mullet Free

Mullet Free 39

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Go sling your cryptoscams on texags, there's dumber money there waiting for you. Emphasizing a deflationary currency in a thread about USD inflation is doing a bit or something lol

Nobody is slinging anything. I didn’t actually bring it up. And I have bad news for you. Austin is one of the biggest hubs of Bitcoin ecosystem in the world. Must be all the Aggies. 
 

16 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


Dear god. That you actually think that means I agree with you is staggering in its idiocy.

When it all goes to shit, true absolute shit, the ONLY things of actual value will be things that 1) help you survive (food, water, etc) and 2) things that give you power (guns, ammo, loyal troops). Crypto will be as worthless as anything else with no inherent value.
That’s the fucking neon-bright truth you crypto morons can’t grasp, even though it’s right in front of you.
You dream of just enough of a collapse to make crypto truly valuable, but you’re too dense to realize that collapses don’t just stop at the point you want.

You said people wouldn’t trust each other. Monetarily they won’t necessarily have to. 
 

Also a reset of the global debt burden/financial system doesn’t mean we’re living in caves without internet. It’ll likely be rough, but not end of humanity type stuff. And it is going to happen so you need to prepare yourself mentally for that. 

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23717

Posted
Posted (edited)

 

33 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


Dear god. That you actually think that means I agree with you is staggering in its idiocy.

When it all goes to shit, true absolute shit, the ONLY things of actual value will be things that 1) help you survive (food, water, etc) and 2) things that give you power (guns, ammo, loyal troops). Crypto will be as worthless as anything else with no inherent value.
That’s the fucking neon-bright truth you crypto morons can’t grasp, even though it’s right in front of you.
You dream of just enough of a collapse to make crypto truly valuable, but you’re too dense to realize that collapses don’t just stop at the point you want.

 

Aircraft carriers and force projection makes the world go around.  Until they don't anymore. 

Edited by Anastasis
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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 107011

Posted
Posted
 

He’s not wrong. There’s an element of faith and “it’s worth something because this entity says it’s worth something” to any monetary system that is not a barter economy. The entity matters.
Say the US government and its full faith and credit go away. In that world…your 1s and 0s aren’t going to save you. Or anyone else.
Meaning that the rest of the world (all of which has money…maybe not denominated in dollars, but, money) has a vested interest in not indulging in the crypto bros’ masturbatory fantasy world where money is worthless, there are no banks…but crypto bros somehow saved us all….with “currency” that’s as or more “pretend” than anything else.
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Anastasis

Anastasis 23717

Posted
Posted
Just now, Brisketexan said:


He’s not wrong. There’s an element of faith and “it’s worth something because this entity says it’s worth something” to any monetary system that is not a barter economy. The entity matters.
Say the US government and its full faith and credit go away. In that world…your 1s and 0s aren’t going to save you. Or anyone else.
Meaning that the rest of the world (all of which has money…maybe not denominated in dollars, but, money) has a vested interest in not indulging in the crypto bros’ masturbatory fantasy world where money is worthless, there are no banks…but crypto bros somehow saved us all….with “currency” that’s as or more “pretend” than anything else.

Fun world salad exercise brisket. 

I don't have any crypto. That shit doesn't make any sense to me.  But I am a simple man. While you spend your time worrying about the crypto bros you miss the big picture, imo. Our financial systems are broke. The crypto bros are not lunatics for pointing this out. But lots of lunatics are really heavily invested in pushing back against threats to the house of cards. 

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 107011

Posted
Posted
Fun world salad exercise brisket. 
I don't have any crypto. That shit doesn't make any sense to me.  But I am a simple man. While you spend your time worrying about the crypto bros you miss the big picture, imo. Our financial systems are broke. The crypto bros are not lunatics for pointing this out. But lots of lunatics are really heavily invested in pushing back against threats to the house of cards. 

Sane people are invested in pushing back against those threats too. Because there’s not a good alternative.
I mean, maybe you’re cool with complete global economic and social collapse and the unspeakable hell that would come with it. As for me…I’d prefer to push back against it and find ways to work with the system we have.
But rest assured, I’m reasonably confident your “burn it down” crowd is winning. They are jubilant at the thought of “cleansing fire!” I’m just sane enough to also know that what follows is ash and ruin. So…we shouldn’t do that. Oh, and the morons who think pretend digital currency will save them when it’s all ash and ruin…they’re a special kind of stupid.
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Anastasis

Anastasis 23717

Posted
Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Sane people are invested in pushing back against those threats too. Because there’s not a good alternative.
I mean, maybe you’re cool with complete global economic and social collapse and the unspeakable hell that would come with it. As for me…I’d prefer to push back against it and find ways to work with the system we have.
But rest assured, I’m reasonably confident your “burn it down” crowd is winning. They are jubilant at the thought of “cleansing fire!” I’m just sane enough to also know that what follows is ash and ruin. So…we shouldn’t do that. Oh, and the morons who think pretend digital currency will save them when it’s all ash and ruin…they’re a special kind of stupid.

You have a narrow run view of history, brisket. Every iteration burns down eventually. And something new takes its place. Sometimes better, sometimes worse. Crypto doesn't even register. The American Empire and the Pax Americana will be one of the shortest lived in the grand scheme of things. 

Edited by Anastasis
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