2021 Texas Baseball Analysis - Midseason Evaluation

[Spaceman_Spiff 121]

Hi everyone, long-time lurker, first-time poster.

So I've had this post on my mind for a while, and I thought the baseball team's recent stretch created a good opportunity to pull the trigger. Texas baseball is solidly into conference play in the fifth year of David Pierce's tenure and the question still remains: are we good this year? You may have seen us ranked #5 nationally to start this week, then get blanked 2-0 in College Station, and finish it off with a series sweep of Kansas. So what does it all mean?

 

First, a TL;DR: The 2021 Texas baseball team has several of the pieces to make noise this season, particularly in what looks to be an excellent pitching staff. But the offense lacks true top-end star production and top to bottom has concerning peripherals (especially in strike outs). Both sides of the ball have had very favorable luck so far - all signs suggest we are closer to Top 25 than Top 5 and regression going forward is likely. Now, Pierce's teams are nothing if not unpredictable and there's still a lot of season left, but with one year left on his contract we're probably heading for more questions than answers.

 

With that done, let's get to it, and take a look at the bats. Take a look  here  to see the stats I'm referencing. (Figure 1)

 

This breaks out into traditional usage and triple slash style stats, then the underlying peripherals (strikeout and walk rates and the % of our hits that go for extra bases or home runs). Finally, we've got more advanced stats including: wOBA which gives us a number scaled like OBP but properly weighting batting production and BABIP suggesting how lucky a player has been (and/or potentially the quality of the defenses we've faced). Initial takeaways are that this is pretty good! Starters are averaging an OPS of .800, which would be the best since Kody Clemens & co. went off in 2018. We're above average in OBP and SLG, which is supported by above average walks and xbH and homerun rates.

 

Problem is, we strike out a lot. Like a lot. Pierce's UT teams are usually average in Ks (~19%), so this year is a major spike and puts us well above the national average (A&M may not have been an aberration). We're also really lucky. Our BABIP is ~30-40 points higher than we've historically landed at. That's a lot, and almost certainly unsustainable. Even in 2018 (a very Cinderalla year where we had Pierce's best hitter in Kody) we had a starter BABIP of ~.325. To try to estimate the effect of this, I adjusted each players' and the teams stats to reflect a historically average level of luck + defense (a .315 BABIP), which yields us our "x"pected metrics for OBP and wOBA. Much more average than they initially appear. Looking at the history of Pierce's teams (Figure 2), emphasizes the above, plus we're probably lucky not just in production but in runs scored. Compare our wOBA this year to 2018 and the runs per game, suggesting we're probably scoring .25-.5 runs per game more than we "should" even before adjusting for BIP luck. Overall, the bats on this team aren't bad. You get the feeling Pierce is pushing a more power-heavy strategy, which is yielding higher xBH rates while sacrificing on strikeouts and walks. It's generally working, with some classic TTO peaks/slumps, but this is likely to get worse based on the underlying talent of the team - which is more average than great.

 

Speaking of, what about the players individually? Who's doing well, who's not doing well, and who's overrated? (Figure 1).

 

Who I like:

• Cam Williams: Well, this isn't controversial. Cam has flashed some serious power and he's actually probably underperforming given his luck so far. Not a fan of the strikeouts and meh walk rate, but the power is worth it.
• Mike Antico: Wait what? Yep, his slash line says bottom of the order but his advanced stats and speed say potential leadoff bat. Mike does his best Duke Ellis impression with a sky-high walk rate and propensity to steal, but without the massive strikeout issue (he's below average K%!) He's undervalued because of his BABIP, and some of that could be his contact quality (too high a flyout rate?), but I like him as an impact player the rest of the year. Hell, if you go by x.wOBA, he could be one of the best on the team.
• Trey Faltine: At first glance you'd think he's more in the middle of the pack (and striking out 25%+ of the time is suboptimal). But his walk rate makes up for it and the power peripherals mean he gets it done when he makes contact. Quality production for a stud defensive SS.

 

Who I like less:

• Ivan Melendez: Oof, I hate to say it, but that is ugly. Especially for a 1B/DH. He strikes out at 2x the acceptable rate, walks well below average, and has average power. He's propped up by a big BABIP, but this isn't going to last (the Kansas series just pushed him over an x.wOBA of .300) Nice experiment, but let's all agree to shut this down and lock Zubia at 1B for the year. He's not his 2018 self but he's still fine.
• Mitchell Daly: Damn it, I was very excited about him from watching/listening. But those stats are standing on an insane .470+ BABIP, while adjusted stats suggest he's more 6-8 spot in the order quality. He doesn't strike out a ton and has some pop, but underlying peripherals are all too average for now. Looks (unfortunately) overhyped.
• Douglas Hodo: Not quite as hyped as Daly, but still overrated due to his BABIP (he's actually already come back down to earth a bit - last week his BABIP was .400+). More strike-outs, low walks, and painfully poor power. Hodo at least has some defensive upside compared to Melendez, so I'd argue for giving Campbell a run at DH. (but seriously, how do we have these levels of production from nearly every corner spot??)

 

Overall, we're probably not a terrible team batting. But as we saw Tuesday, our bats come up empty a worrying share of the time, especially against above average arms. Beyond that, one thing that really strikes me about Pierce's offenses (other than the fact that they usually just cannot hit for power) is the lack of top-end 2-4 hole hitters and the poor performance of our multi-year starters (Zubia, Todd, Petrinsky, Kennedy). It struck me about the time that OU's Hardman hit what seemed like his fourth consecutive homer against us, but if you look at the class teams of the Big 12 - their rosters are littered with 1-3 high .900 or even 1.000+ OPS guys. Even with BABIP and park factors (the Disch is actually about dead neutral now) potentially affecting it, we just don't have those 2-3 really dangerous bats in the heart of the lineup. Kody is Pierce's only 1.000+ OPS hitter ever. And most years we're lucky to have 1-2 guys break 900. That's…troubling. What's worse, we have multiple starters who seem to have stagnated or even regressed during their time. Seriously, go back and look, 2018 Zubia had Cam Williams production and today he's striking out more than ever with no prayer of even double digit bombs? Now, baseball performance (especially with college sample sizes) is tricky and it's pretty common that guys stagnate or regress at any level. And to his credit, Pierce has some success stories: Kody Clemens, David Hamilton, Ryan Reynolds, even Cam. But my gut tells me we're either off by an entire tier of hitting talent, or we're just not developing them correctly.

 

On to pitchers (Figure 3). Same set-up: basic stats, peripherals/context metrics, then advanced and luck/BABIP adjusted metrics (note this is wOBA allowed, so we're looking for lower). Well this looks much better, and tracks with how we're thinking about this team. We're getting a lot of strike outs, limiting walks+HBP, and have below average HR rates (HR% here is on all plate appearances). That staff wOBA allowed looks really good and despite clear luck on the pitching side too (historical BABIP for our pitchers is ~.305-.310), our expected metrics still look very good (average D1 ERA/FIP is ~4.9). What strikes me looking at this is the depth of quality. We've got Ty Madden putting up a performance to-date that could rival Morgan Cooper's in 2017 as Pierce's best pitcher. We've got what look to be three average or plus starters in Stevens, Kubichek, and Hansen. And we've got serious depth in quality relief arms (Quintanilla is looking much more like his 2019 self!) headlined by Tanner Witt, who Pierce rightfully uses in any and all leverage occasions. Of course, there are a lot of potential caveats there. The staff still is likely getting pretty lucky. We haven't yet had to really stress the back-end of our bullpen thanks to long stretches from starters + Witt. Our overall SoS is about the same for the back half of the year, but with some big batting in-conference teams. And outside weekend starters, the sample size is really small for our other arms (relievers are notoriously fickle, remember Ridgeway?). But there's a lot to like here, and this look gives a lot more confidence that Pierce has a legit staff on his hands, with the upside to even be his absolute best. Take a look at the past few years (Figure 4) and tell me you don’t have a good feeling.

 

Put it all together, what's the takeaway of all this? Are we good? Well - maybe (how's that for hard-hitting insight). We're not #5, that's for sure. Boyd's Worlds ISRs have us bouncing in the 20-30 range, which feels closer to me. I really do think the pitching staff has got something cooking. We look set to be in the mix for the conference. And as 2018 will tell you, Pierce can get it done in the postseason - don't put him past sneaking into a memorable year. But we've got a tough conference road ahead with Tech, Okie State, and TCU all ahead of us. And despite some mixed, but overall strong-seeming performances at the plate, the numbers suggest those are likely to regress. All-together, I'm cautious, but I still like this team a lot would love to be proved wrong. So let's go earn a regional host and head to Omaha, Coach. Hook 'em.

 

[Dbeasy 15229]

Starting a new topic with your first post, AND providing a wall of text. Okay. Let’s see where this goes. 

[jinx 2635]

[Machinator 32099]

Ignore the usual Surly bullshit OP, this is good.

[Machinator 32099]

1 hour ago, Spaceman_Spiff said:

He's undervalued because of his BABIP, and some of that could be his contact quality (too high a flyout rate?)

It's very much this for me. I would be interested to see his splits in the non-Kansas weekend games, because every AB of his seems to end in a weak grounder or flyball. Very few hard-hit balls against quality pitching.

[Spaceman_Spiff 121]

32 minutes ago, Machinator said:

It's very much this for me. I would be interested to see his splits in the non-Kansas weekend games, because every AB of his seems to end in a weak grounder or flyball. Very few hard-hit balls against quality pitching.

Very fair - without Statcast style stats we don't have a full picture, but I agree that it's a concern of his. Hopeful that his eye wins out and he adjusts or the randomness shakes out to improve his contact. 

[UTPhil2006 3828]

Yes we’re good. Should be number 3 or 4 come Monday 

[ztejas 43741]

This feels like a fringe Omaha team to me. I don't think they are the 5th best team in the country. I do think they are better than 30th. Ceiling seems like make the CWS - floor is probably 3rd or 4th in conference and a disappointing postseason exit.

[ClubWhatever 12159]

I think our speed is somewhat underutilized.  Kennedy, for example, hasn’t bunted for many base hits.   Several guys in the lineup could do more of that.  I think we could hit and run a bit more.

I am worried about the closer spot.  We’ve taken a bunch of multi-run leads into the eighth and ninth and given up runs.  It hasn’t bit us yet, but may become more important as the competition ramps up.  

[TexArcher 38414]

1 hour ago, ztejas said:

This feels like a fringe Omaha team to me. I don't think they are the 5th best team in the country. I do think they are better than 30th. Ceiling seems like make the CWS - floor is probably 3rd or 4th in conference and a disappointing postseason exit.

I'd say anything short of hosting a Super Regional is a disapppointment.  I don't think there are 8 better teams than Texas.

Since the opening 3-game stumble we're 20-5, including a sweep of South Carolina, who is 19-4 against everybody else.

We're pretty damned good.

 

Edited April 5, 2021 by TexArcher

[ztejas 43741]

4 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

I'd say anything short of hosting a Super Regional is a disapppointment.  I don't think there are 8 better teams than Texas.

Since the opening 3-game stumble we're 20-5, including a sweep of South Carolina, who is 19-4 against everybody else.

We're pretty damned good.

 

I'd like to see us play some better teams in conference first. So far our resume is good - esp. if you can discount that opening form - but we've not exactly played the world beaters of the B12. The Okie Lite and Tech series should give us a good idea of where this team stands. 

Obviously we are capable of hanging with any team in the country - but our hitting is so feast or famine and I think it might get us into some trouble against some better pitching teams.

[dcar00 14603]

40 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

I'd say anything short of hosting a Super Regional is a disapppointment.  I don't think there are 8 better teams than Texas.

Since the opening 3-game stumble we're 20-5, including a sweep of South Carolina, who is 19-4 against everybody else.

We're pretty damned good.

 

aggy game was a disappointment and losing the sunday game to the dirt burglars was suboptimal.  

our hitting "seems" more consistent this year as we are clubbing pretty much all mid week and non con teams after the first 3 game disaster.

I still don't trust us against good much less great pitching.  I think we are solid top 12 or so but pitching will have to carry us as usual. I hope the fielding stays same and potentially even improves.

We need to crush the next 12 games.  11-1 and at worst 10-2

 

[Fletch 5802]

1 hour ago, ztejas said:

This feels like a fringe Omaha team to me. I don't think they are the 5th best team in the country. I do think they are better than 30th. Ceiling seems like make the CWS - floor is probably 3rd or 4th in conference and a disappointing postseason exit.

It’s a lot like our 2014 team. Great pitching and defense and just enough at the plate to win a bunch of 2 and 3 run ball games. If we go, say, 6-3 against tcu, tech and okie state. We’d be in a pretty good spot to win the conference and host. If we host then Kub or Hansen against the 4 seed, Madden in the winners bracket then Stevens to close out the regional. Also feels like this team has that old school Texas baseball winners mentality. No, this is far from a true Texas baseball team from the glory days, but they feel like the 2014 team where we get hot and fuck around and find ourselves in the winners bracket in Omaha. 

[TwiceHorn 31681]

4 hours ago, Spaceman_Spiff said:

But my gut tells me we're either off by an entire tier of hitting talent, or we're just not developing them correctly.

Nice write up.  The above seems to be the $64k question.  We haven't fielded a strong hitting team in a decade or more.  I wonder how easy it is to recruit, and how well we recruit, offensive talent.  And, of course, development of hitters is a huge question, as well.  I'm pretty sure we lagged in development and talent in the late Augie years, not because he forgot how to coach, but we were not availing ourselves of the latest techniques, and because those in charge of recruiting were bringing in defense to the detriment of offense.

[Fletch 5802]

Just now, TwiceHorn said:

Nice write up.  The above seems to be the $64k question.  We haven't fielded a strong hitting team in a decade or more.  I wonder how easy it is to recruit, and how well we recruit, offensive talent.  And, of course, development of hitters is a huge question, as well.  I'm pretty sure we lagged in development and talent in the late Augie years, not because he forgot how to coach, but we were not availing ourselves of the latest techniques, and because those in charge of recruiting were bringing in defense to the detriment of offense.

Our young guys show some promise. I really wish we were more aggressive at the plate like we were in our 02-‘11 run. Drives me nuts the number of belt high fast balls and hangers we just watch go by. I’m all for making the pitcher work, but when he’s just laying in batting practice, knock his ass out of the game 

[shadow_operative 15932]

3 hours ago, Machinator said:

Ignore the usual Surly bullshit OP, this is good.

pffft. like anyone has time to read that much text. 

[Spaceman_Spiff 121]

39 minutes ago, Fletch said:

It’s a lot like our 2014 team. Great pitching and defense and just enough at the plate to win a bunch of 2 and 3 run ball games. If we go, say, 6-3 against tcu, tech and okie state. We’d be in a pretty good spot to win the conference and host. If we host then Kub or Hansen against the 4 seed, Madden in the winners bracket then Stevens to close out the regional. Also feels like this team has that old school Texas baseball winners mentality. No, this is far from a true Texas baseball team from the glory days, but they feel like the 2014 team where we get hot and fuck around and find ourselves in the winners bracket in Omaha. 

Upshot of what increasingly looks like a great pitching staff is that it only takes a late hot streak hitting to make some noise in the postseason. I'm more tentative about conference/regional standings expectations for this team (we won't really know until the last few weeks of the season given our schedule). But at the very least Pierce's teams have done well in elimination play, so it should be a good ride regardless of seeding. 

[TexArcher 38414]

50 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

aggy game was a disappointment and losing the sunday game to the dirt burglars was suboptimal.

Agreed, but it's baseball and those games made us 20-5 in our last 25 instead of 22-3.  And as you noted, we're beating the teams we're supposed to beat almost all the time, and often beating the shit out of them.

One more note on South Carolina: they just swept #5 Florida.  They also dropped 2 of 3 to #2 Vanderbilt, but that's 4-2 against top 5 opponents since we swept them.

I understand the concerns with hitting, although they've got to be feeling better about themselves after mauling KU.  But I trust this pitching staff.  And it's encouraging that we're 8-3 away from home.

I think we're going back to Omaha.

Edited April 5, 2021 by TexArcher

[zlavydra 2125]

13 hours ago, Machinator said:

It's very much this for me. I would be interested to see his splits in the non-Kansas weekend games, because every AB of his seems to end in a weak grounder or flyball. Very few hard-hit balls against quality pitching.

Excellent post, OP.  You bring up a good point with BABIP.  I had noticed that Melendez and Daly tend to hit a lot of balls that find holes. Some of that has to do with hitting the ball hard, but not always.  We don't tend to notice that when things go our way, but when a ball is hit hard and finds a defensive player (Zubia DP in 9th inning v. OU), it stands out.  I doubt one thing happens more than the other by the end of the year, but I can see that we've experienced our share of good hitting luck so far.

Machinator is right about Antico.  His BABIP isn't luck-related.  He almost never hits line drives, so his weak-ass fly balls almost always find a glove.

[OrangeBlack&Gold 3]

Nice work, Spaceman.  Thank you for taking the time.  I always like to go in with low expectations as I tried it the other way in '06, '07, and '08 - painful still.  Once I relaxed and just worked to do my portion to help get us a Home Regional, '09 was a lot more fun and we'd have a 7th banner if Green had pitched to one more batter....  I see us hosting and think with the new rules I heard about this afternoon, maybe we automatically get the Super if we put in a healthy bid.

Omaha will take a bit more development, but Shortstack's headed back from Taiwan in time for Nebraska and told me today that she'd be disappointed if we didn't make so you're on notice, Coach Pierce.  ; )

[JimmyJames 12271]

Good post but doesn’t really address fielding which is best in the league. Pitching is probably best in the league. Batting is in the middle. Altogether that’s a winning trio.

[Spaceman_Spiff 121]

Defense is really challenging to approach in a data driven way which is why I didn't address it. But Faltine and Ardoin in particular have been stout, which is certainly a boon. Pitching is definitely up there, though I'm sure Vandy would like to have a word as far as best goes. 

[Machinator 32099]

Just now, Spaceman_Spiff said:

Defense is really challenging to approach in a data driven way which is why I didn't address it. But Faltine and Ardoin in particular have been stout, which is certainly a boon. Pitching is definitely up there, though I'm sure Vandy would like to have a word as far as best goes. 

"Best in the league" = best in the Big 12

[TrashMaster G 17726]

50 minutes ago, Machinator said:

"Best in the league" = best in the Big 12

= best in the conference 

[troph 24926]

On 4/4/2021 at 9:47 PM, ztejas said:

I'd like to see us play some better teams in conference first. So far our resume is good - esp. if you can discount that opening form - but we've not exactly played the world beaters of the B12. The Okie Lite and Tech series should give us a good idea of where this team stands. 

Obviously we are capable of hanging with any team in the country - but our hitting is so feast or famine and I think it might get us into some trouble against some better pitching teams.

This is my take too. 

[Balcones 312]

On 4/4/2021 at 9:38 PM, TexArcher said:

I'd say anything short of hosting a Super Regional is a disapppointment.  I don't think there are 8 better teams than Texas.

Since the opening 3-game stumble we're 20-5, including a sweep of South Carolina, who is 19-4 against everybody else.

We're pretty damned good.

 

Currently #17 in RPI. Next couple weeks we *should stack up wins, but not really get SOS help.  Will see that change over the last few weeks of season. Need to be sharp by then.

[Machinator 32099]

@Spaceman Spiffcan we get a stats update before the stretch run?

[66BUFF 2574]

I think Tulo is the reason that the hitting and defense have improved since the 2019 season.  He replaced Haig in 2020 and the remaining coaching staff is still in place.  I still think Pierce and his Sam Houston staff are at best average and Pierce is a lousy 3rd base coach.

[Huckleberry 33536]

Yeah, we're good.

#3 in my EWP ratings through the weekend. Here's the Top 25 in that for those curious (Big Ten and Metro Athletic not included because they're only playing conference games):

 

#8 in ISR (taking out Fairfield) and #7 in Massey. We're a good team.

[UTPhil2006 3828]

On 4/4/2021 at 8:10 PM, UTPhil2006 said:

Yes we’re good. Should be number 3 or 4 come Monday 

Nailed it

[jimmyjazz 46473]

1 hour ago, Huckleberry said:

Yeah, we're good.

#3 in my EWP ratings through the weekend. Here's the Top 25 in that for those curious (Big Ten and Metro Athletic not included because they're only playing conference games):

Any eyes on where the leading teams from those conferences might line up with the rest of the country?

[Huckleberry 33536]

No way to do that mathematically other than looking at previous seasons. 

[jimmyjazz 46473]

40 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

No way to do that mathematically other than looking at previous seasons. 

That's why I referenced "eyes".  Just wondering if anyone has watched any B1G baseball, etc. and has a feel if any of their teams are top-tier.

[Spaceman Spiff 403]

7 hours ago, Machinator said:

@Spaceman Spiffcan we get a stats update before the stretch run?

Unfortunately, I'm not the @Spaceman_Spiff you're looking for, but my stats tell me we're fucking good and getting better. Just need to beat a couple more good teams coming up on the schedule for people to realize it. The offense looks like it has enough juice to put consistent pressure on opposing pitchers. Defense looks solid. And no one in the postseason wants to face Ty Madden, who Kevin Goldstein called the best arm in the draft (non-Vandy edition) in a Fangraphs chat a couple weeks back.

[Machinator 32099]

Furk.

@Spaceman_Spiff

[cochamps 1879]

1 hour ago, Machinator said:

Furk.

@Spaceman_Spiff

Oops.  Short circuit?

[Spaceman_Spiff 121]

Hey everyone, really appreciate the positive feedback on the last post. Jumping back in before we kickoff the crux in our schedule (thanks @Machinator for the shout, great name Spaceman). Time to discuss what's happened over the last few weeks (spoiler: we looked excellent, winning 14 straight) and where things stand ahead of a series against Oklahoma State.

Quick hits for those looking to keep the read short: stats and figures to back up the analysis are here.

TL;DR: After an uneven start, the bats came alive in a big way, with us batting 1.000+ OPS as a team over that stretch. Pitching remained dominant, continuing to show off its combination of top-end quality and serious depth (our first, like, 7 guys are good or great - outstanding). Combined we've earned that Top 10 billing from a month ago. We're about to hit the toughest part of our schedule (Ok. State, TCU, and Tech are all likely better than any team we've played since the opening tourney (Figure 1)). So the next month will define whether our regular season ends with a conference championship and a national seed. Pierce has skippered a great season to-date, let's see if it ends up excellent. Oh, and I also apologize to Ivan Melendez, who has absolutely mashed since I expressed doubts about him. Missed on that one.

Batting

Last time (Figure 2) we read the tea leaves on our offense. Previous takeaways: better power, but with a high strikeout rate, lower than usual walks, and several likely candidates for BABIP regression. Since then (Figure 3), we've come alive and have looked the part in every possible way. We're striking out less, walking more (more than we strikeout!), and hitting the ball and hitting it hard. Obviously the question is whether we can keep this up; is this who this team really is or a hot streak buoyed by a series of teams with crappy arms? Honestly, it's hard to say. Yeah, it's tough to not to argue that Kansas through ACU was a really easy stretch of arms (Figure 1), and we haven't exactly faced a load of ace staffs. But we did hit against South Carolina and BYU, ostensibly pretty legit groups. Even Kansas State isn't awful and we put up 4 ER on their Friday starter Wicks, who has Round 1 hype. Not to mention that its totally plausible we've continued to hone our approach and swings throughout the season. Either way, the next three series will prove a good barometer (they're not exactly world-beater pitching staffs, with Ok. State looking hittable in particular, but above-average quality throughout).

Who's Hot:

• Ivan Melendez: A month ago I said "that is ugly. Especially for a 1B/DH. He strikes out at 2x the acceptable rate, walks well below average, and has average power. He's propped up by a big BABIP, but this isn't going to last. Nice experiment, but let's all agree to shut this down" How did that age you ask? Well, since I typed that he's hit 1.720 OPS, .700 wOBA, and tied the Texas record for consecutive games with home runs. So, poorly? I should have known better to bet against someone with a nickname like the "Hispanic Titanic". Obviously, sample size and quality of competition caveats, but he seems to have just decided to be better at…everything…to start the Kansas series. He struck out at a third of the previous rate, walked 2.5x as often, and 2/3s of his hits went for extra bases (1/3 for homeruns?!). I'd say his BABIP continues to scream "this is unsustainable", but what do you know he sported a .460 BABIP in both full seasons of JUCO ball. Yes it's still outlier above top draft picks-level high, but BABIP may be correlated with hitter quality in college (see: KATOH). Besides, at this point, even with BABIP regression we're likely arguing between great and outstanding. Let's see where things end up, but I'm not betting against him a second time.
• Zach Zubia: A much much better run over the last few weeks, putting him only behind Melendez for unadjusted wOBA on the season. If he can continue to walk and hit for power while keeping Ks under control, that'd be an excellent finish for one of Pierce's long-time players.
• Cam Williams: Continued to crush the ball (3/4 of hits in this stretch have gone for extra bases) and upped his walk rate significantly. Hoping he's ok and comes back strong during a critical stretch.
• Mike Antico: A lot of the things that make him promising have stayed the same (walking a ton, striking out rarely, and hitting the ball hard when he gets ahold of it) including several bombs over the last few weeks. Looking at the season to date stats (Figure 4), he's starting to deliver on previous promise. There's still a gap, driven by his BABIP, that is tough to suss out. Looking at his stats at St. John's, he's had a lot of variation (including one major outlier ~500 BABIP season) - I think the continued depression could be attributed to a propensity for shallow pop-ups and fly outs. Would be curious to see his batted ball profile to get an idea of average launch angle, but I could see him continuing to sport a high 200s/low 300s BABIP due to it. Still, if he continues to walk, hit, and steal the way he has I think that tradeoff is worth it.

Who's Not:

• Eric Kennedy: Continues to struggle and was left out of the offensive surge the rest of the team has seen. Rooting for him to turn it around, but the lack of any power is not an aberration (2019 and 2020 look very similar). Given the minus bat and his plus speed, he's gotta walk more in order to be a real contributor.
• Mitchell Daly: Won't be too negative as he started hot and the eye seems to be pretty good (K% and BB% stabilizes much faster than batted statistics). But the BABIP has started to regress and it feels more likely than not that he continues to come back to earth.

On a final note, I'm curious where Pierce lands on the lineup. He seems to move it around a lot, but it feels important to lock-in for the final stretch. Hoping Cam is healthy, I'd go with Antico, Zubia, Melendez, Williams, Faltine, Daly, Ardoin, Hodo, Kennedy. Give Pierce the speed he likes at the top of the lineup, then follow with quality/power bats keeping our biggest power hitters in 3/4 and finishing ~top to bottom in quality (bonus to have Kennedy's speed at 9 to flip the lineup).

 

Pitching

Story here is more straightforward - we've largely held the same performance (Figures 5 and 6). Our stats, particularly for the key part of our staff (starters + top 3/4 relievers) are largely indistinguishable. Ty Madden "cooled off" in his two most recent starts, but that stat line still looks excellent. Our staff ERA is 2.8 and the FIP of our first 6-7 guys is sub 4.0. That's pretty outrageous, and I'd say we have a well-deserved position to date as one of the top D1 staffs. Since the strengths are obvious, and much the same as last time, I'll throw out a couple key caveats.

1) Our next three opponents are easily going to be the biggest challenge our pitchers have seen since February, they're all top 10 or top 20 lineups. (Figure 1)

2) Our BABIP of ~.265 allowed is the fourth lowest in college baseball (out of 300 teams). Definitely boosted by excellent defense (Faltine, Daly, and Antico all seem like +s with Faltine putting up gems constantly). But regression wouldn't be crazy. Fun fact: two of the teams lower than us are Fairfield (.225?!) and Vandy (.241).

Anyway, I like the staff. And having 3-4 very solid looking arms out of the pen is a huge boost for tight late-inning matchups (how many games have we seen them score/rally late and beat out an opposing bullpen?)

Outlook:

You should feel bullish because:

1) SoS or not, this lineup sure feels like one of the best Pierce has fielded

2) This pitching staff is excellent (also likely one of the best Pierce has had), with a critical combination of top-end starter talent and overall depth to make us really dangerous

3) Pierce has bounced between strengths in his time here: 2017 had the pitching with no offense, 2018 had a magical run batting and clutch performances but lacked real pitching talent and lineup depth. 2019…probably best to forget about that one. But this year there's a chance he's got both, which would be a sight to behold, and the team has shown the swagger and the resilience to back it up.

4) Whatever caveats there are, we've absolutely earned a top 10, even top 5 ranking to date. Tied for the conference lead and on a 14-game win streak - Pierce and this team have delivered an excellent season so far. 

You should feel cautious because: We have seen bad and good teams, but outside of South Carolina and the opening tourney (a big but, yes), not really any great teams. This back-to-back run of series is against the top teams in the Big 12, arguably some of the best in the country, and better than anything we've seen since opening weekend.

On both sides, we're going to see some of the stiffest competition the nation has to offer - it's a hard road, but we control our destiny for both the conference and a national seed. Should be a good month of baseball. Hook 'em.

[Machinator 32099]

Requesting another update now that we've finished the toughest stretch of our regular season schedule.

@Spaceman_Spiff