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Chip shortage

Wally Fairway

By Wally Fairway
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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5,589

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I've read all about the chip shortage, affecting car production and other industries. 

But now it has affected me - short story is I ordered a laptop from Dell on March 22, and it was scheduled to ship April 2. But this morning I realized I had not received an email about shipment; so I log in to check my order status and get this and I'm really pissed that there is no communication about the delay. And I'm presuming it is chip related, but really with no information there could be some other reason for the delay. Maybe the shipping SNAFU in the canal is the reason, or my horoscope, but whatever I'm pissed.

 Screenshot-2021-04-05-091654-Dell-Order

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5,589

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7 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

There are probably around 9000 ways to get a laptop with near exact specs to the one you ordered by the end of the week. 

While that may be true, I looked around local options before I placed my order and didn't like any that I could locate near me. I decided to order online because I didn't need to walk out of the store with a new laptop and just wanted to order what I really wanted.
I'm not a "tech" guy, I'm a fucking bean counter and now I'll have to spend more of my time to find an alternative, and if I hadn't checked the status then I wouldn't have know about the delay.
My complaint is primarily about the non-existant customer service and no notification from Dell - I'm pissed about shitty service

Edited by Wally Fairway
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B00M

B00M 6,471

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Bean counter? Doesn't sound like to you need a brand new rig. If you're in Austin, Discount Electronics has pretty great prices, tons of Dells, and even if you customize the laptop (add RAM, HDD, DVDR/W, bluetooth, etc), you can pick it up that afternoon or next day. Obviously it comes with a legit fresh copy of Windows. I got a damn decent customized Dell from DE a few weeks ago for like $450 and have been very happy with it.

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gyroprotagonist

gyroprotagonist 2,595

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the shortage is real and it's spectacular.  

I read the biggest cause was that, on top of the disruptions that the initial C19 caused in all the mfg sectors, automakers dropped demand and canceled orders in anticipation of much lower demand.  When that lowered demand did not fully materialize, they scrambled to re-place those orders and then some.  Plus the boom that WFH has caused to all things with screens.  Then add on the multiple stimulus packages in the last year and you get a lot of people wanting stuff that depend on these chips.

i work on the planning side in the cell phone industry and it's notgreatBob.gif as far as supply on basic components goes.  

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AUS-97HORN

AUS-97HORN 11,824

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its not just chips that are the issue boys and girls.

 

There are MULTIPLE issues worldwide as the global logistics trade is slowly failing as a long-term consequence of covid and numerous multiple non-related natural disasters.

 

in the last 4 months, the US-China shipping route has had more containers fall overboard than are normally lost in 2 years

The drought in Taiwan has caused a massive slowdown in microchips being made

a fire in march in Japan took out another Chip factory

a different factory went up in flames in Nov - taking out a primary audio chip MFG

what is actually probably holding up your laptop order is a massive global shortage on LCD screens- expected to continue delays for months

 

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Johnny Sack

Johnny Sack 8,397

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1 hour ago, B00M said:

This whole thing has been a pretty sweet little preview of future resource scarcity

A lot of scarcity right now.  Was at Home Depot Saturday and saw that a sheet of OSB is damn near $40.  And an 8' 2x4 is $9.

My BIL and SIL are building a new house.  I think their lumber costs have gone up something like $80k in the last few months.  I put in a new fence in December and was shocked what the cedar planks cost.  They are double that now, I believe.

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5,589

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3 hours ago, B00M said:

Bean counter? Doesn't sound like to you need a brand new rig. If you're in Austin, Discount Electronics has pretty great prices, tons of Dells, and even if you customize the laptop (add RAM, HDD, DVDR/W, bluetooth, etc), you can pick it up that afternoon or next day. Obviously it comes with a legit fresh copy of Windows. I got a damn decent customized Dell from DE a few weeks ago for like $450 and have been very happy with it.

Thanks, that's a big help when I'm about 1,300 miles from Austin. Maybe I'll just break out some 7 column paper and my 10-key

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Captainant

Captainant 27,828

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14 minutes ago, Horn_Spanker said:

I had all the parts in my Newegg basket for a new Ryzen system last summer, I waited too long to pull the trigger.  One day, it was almost double.  No new PC for me!

there's a pretty decent selection of pre-built machines on the market right now, if you're hard up for a gaming rig that may be the fastest and cheapest way to go

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utee94

utee94 15,868

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1 hour ago, Wally Fairway said:

Thanks, that's a big help when I'm about 1,300 miles from Austin. Maybe I'll just break out some 7 column paper and my 10-key

Bummer to hear.  If Dell said it was in-stock and ready-to-ship, then there's probably some other issue holding up your order.

The chip problems are real (and they're not spectacular) but anything that says it's in stock for USA delivery, has already made it through whatever shortages it was going to have, and it's been shipped as a finished-goods system into the regional fulfillment center here in the USA.

Only other potential hold-up is that some other items were tied to it, like mouse/keyboard/speakers/dongles or something, that aren't in stock.  Did you order anything else along with it?

 

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Superhero

Superhero 8,848

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5 hours ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

Been waiting on some of the newer CPUs and GPUs for months now with still no ETA... all were supposed to be available Q4 2020.

All kinds of reasons now from packaging... materials... shipping... over buying... etc.  Saying going to be 2022 at the earliest before most is remedied.

Heard on NPR cardboard production of cardboard was at a all time high in 2020. Probably because everyone buys one single thing on Amazon and wants it the very next day.

In the construction world, steel prices have shot up at least 15% which affects drywall, utility piping, electrical conduit; copper is up 30%, timber up 60%, lead time on PVC and fiberglass insulation is 20 weeks.  On our regional call this morning, it was like a swap meet with projects asking each other for scarce commodities. 

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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this was the conversation I had with my contacts at the Port of Houston (he's an importer-exporter):

"What does he import?"
 

"Chips." 

"What kind of chips?"
 

"Potato.  Some corn.  and he exports diapers." 

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Jerry Callo

Jerry Callo 8,734

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1 hour ago, Lobo said:

this was the conversation I had with my contacts at the Port of Houston (he's an importer-exporter):

"What does he import?"
 

"Chips." 

"What kind of chips?"
 

"Potato.  Some corn.  and he exports diapers." 

And that man was Art Vandelay.

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Armybrat

Armybrat 40,920

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2 hours ago, bejezuz said:

All I wanted for Christmas was an XBox One X.  The wife bought me a watch instead. Microsoft is saying they won't be in stock regularly until June at the very least.  

We just gave our grandson the cash ($700) to shop for his Christmas XBox himself, as we were tired of searching for one ourselves.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89,831

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13 hours ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

Been waiting on some of the newer CPUs and GPUs for months now with still no ETA... all were supposed to be available Q4 2020.

All kinds of reasons now from packaging... materials... shipping... over buying... etc.  Saying going to be 2022 at the earliest before most is remedied.

Don't forget that the tariffs from the last administration, that kicked in on December 31st, have jacked up prices in some tech areas. Those prices are not being eaten by the companies, but being passed on to consumers.  It's created a perfect shitstorm of jacked up prices before the high demand kicked in.

If you want AMD stuff, buy straight from AMD.com.

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DonkeyCigars

DonkeyCigars 143

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12 hours ago, Johnny Sack said:

A lot of scarcity right now.  Was at Home Depot Saturday and saw that a sheet of OSB is damn near $40.  And an 8' 2x4 is $9.

My BIL and SIL are building a new house.  I think their lumber costs have gone up something like $80k in the last few months.  I put in a new fence in December and was shocked what the cedar planks cost.  They are double that now, I believe.

Yea, my BIL and SIL are building a new house too and from December to March went up like $57k and another $20k for 4 cedar garage doors.

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DonkeyCigars

DonkeyCigars 143

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15 hours ago, gyroprotagonist said:

the shortage is real and it's spectacular.  

I read the biggest cause was that, on top of the disruptions that the initial C19 caused in all the mfg sectors, automakers dropped demand and canceled orders in anticipation of much lower demand.  When that lowered demand did not fully materialize, they scrambled to re-place those orders and then some.  Plus the boom that WFH has caused to all things with screens.  Then add on the multiple stimulus packages in the last year and you get a lot of people wanting stuff that depend on these chips.

i work on the planning side in the cell phone industry and it's notgreatBob.gif as far as supply on basic components goes.  

I think you nailed a lot of it, but also read that Huawei being kicked out of American business also hurt supply as they were snatching up chips left and right. TSMC announcing $100bn investments after Intel announced $50bn is making this fun to watch. 

 Also read there is something in that industry called double booking:

Quote

Double-booking has always been an issue in the foundry business, particularly when supplies get tight; fab capacity is booked in advance, but a buyer is only truly committed when an order is put into production. This creates a feedback loop where the fear of decreased capacity leads companies to book more capacity, making it seem like there is even less capacity, leading to more bookings. This creates a risky dynamic for companies like TSMC: increasing capacity is a multi-billion dollar bet, which means the moments where more capacity seems the most necessary is the exact moment when more caution is warranted.

 

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gyroprotagonist

gyroprotagonist 2,595

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yeah, way back in the day i used to work for AMD and contract fabs for the high end chips was sorta in it's infancy as TSMC was starting to ramp up big time.  But the CPU for computers were taking ~14+ weeks for a lot to go through the fab.  Now you had lots starting every week, but any big process improvement took 4 months to bear fruit.  So switching over a line from say an auto industry chip to a phone IC takes a long time from start to finish.

Also, you are going to see devices at the low end get squeezed in favor of higher priced ones.  When the same LCD screen or camera can be put on a $99 phone or $499 phone, it's going to go to the higher priced phone where more margin is made.  CPUs also will trend to the higher end.  AMD used to 'downbin' a CPUs speed to fill higher demand for lower priced computers, but i doubt that's happening now.

It will be interesting to see what happens when all this new capacity comes online in 2-3 years.  Hell i saw a commercial where a freaking plug in air freshener was touting a PCB controlled deployment mechanism.  

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Captainant

Captainant 27,828

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53 minutes ago, gyroprotagonist said:

It will be interesting to see what happens when all this new capacity comes online in 2-3 years.  Hell i saw a commercial where a freaking plug in air freshener was touting a PCB controlled deployment mechanism.  

+1 hopefully we'll see the speed of innovation pick up here in the states with easier access to foundries and custom silicon. There's some wild possibilities in places like Shenzhen where you can go from an idea to a fully manufactured product in under a month - all thanks to the tightly integrated manufacturing capacity and industrial base.

And yeah pretty much ANYTHING newly made  that consumes electricity these days has at least a small microcontroller embedded in it. Shit, even most LED light bulbs have a small microcontroller

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UT_OB1

UT_OB1 2,225

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6 minutes ago, Murfdogg21 said:

Our home builder claimed lumber costs are up $35-40k per house on average. We had a pay a $30k premium vs prices at the beginning of 2020. Fortunately real estate price increases outpaced that by a long shot. 

Most articles I’ve red says the average price increase is 15k.  I’ve seen as high as $25k in some. They is for the “average “ home though. Sounds like he may have been exaggerating a bit

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B00M

B00M 6,471

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20 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

Thanks, that's a big help when I'm about 1,300 miles from Austin. Maybe I'll just break out some 7 column paper and my 10-key

Cool man, I'll update my spreadsheet of surly poster locations, and I'll cross my fingers that your laptop gets damaged in transit

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