Place your bets now: Predict the Year and Exit of Donald Trump

[TornACL 7690]

I guess satire truly is dead.

[Biff Tannen 45554]

Please give us the heads up when posting a satirical piece.  It's so hard to tell these days.

[David Dennison 18749]

49 minutes ago, Helobious said:

2025. In 2020 he will lose the popular vote by a wider margin than 2016 and win the electoral vote by a way slimmer margin, but he'll be re-elected nonetheless. It's pretty near impossible for an incumbent pres. to lose a reelection bid, I have no idea how Bush pulled it off in 1992. 

Shitty economy and Ross Perot drawing GOP votes. A lot of them. 

Edited May 2, 2018 by David Dennison

[Bateshorn 9910]

Assuming he doesn't die in office, then Wednesday, January 20, 2021, upon completion of the oath of office by the 46th President of the United States.  I'm assuming he will not attend the inauguration.

He will not be impeached, nor will the 25th Amendment be invoked.  The courage to do either does not exist in the modern GOP.  It's just not how they function.

[Bateshorn 9910]

6 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Shitty economy and Ross Perot drawing GOP votes. A lot of them. 

Trump's re-election will rest entirely on the economy continuing to be strong.  Virtually every 1 term president, other than Polk, lost because of a shitty economy.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

Unnecessary qualifier. 

[FondrenRoad 4378]

1 hour ago, Helobious said:

2025. In 2020 he will lose the popular vote by a wider margin than 2016 and win the electoral vote by a way slimmer margin, but he'll be re-elected nonetheless. It's pretty near impossible for an incumbent pres. to lose a reelection bid, I have no idea how Bush pulled it off in 1992. 

Bush had a rare strong 3rd party contender.  Usually, incumbents have it relatively easy because they don't have a shit-slinging primary to deal with where their own partymates do oppo research against them.  Trump won't have that luxury.

[David Dennison 18749]

2 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

Bush had a rare strong 3rd party contender.  Usually, incumbents have it relatively easy because they don't have a shit-slinging primary to deal with where their own partymates do oppo research against them.  Trump won't have that luxury.

Do you really think he's going to get primaried?

[Hugo Stiglitz 23366]

3 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Do you really think he's going to get primaried?

I do, if he gets that far.

[FondrenRoad 4378]

9 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Do you really think he's going to get primaried?

Absolutely, although I think the powers that be in the GOP will discourage it.  They won't be able to stop it though and there are already enough would-be contenders that its almost a certainty if Trump runs again.  Also Bush 1 was primaried by Buchanan.  Forgot about that.  Carter was primaried by Ted Kennedy.  Both incumbents ended up losing the general.

[staboner 4959]

i have a hard time believing he doesn't get reelected

its extremely hard to stop 35% of the population with that mentality and a system that favors them (the EC)

generally speaking its always hard stopping single issue thinking. the SOBs are simply never going to respond to anything other than their own hate-filled messaging

my wife had a GD collapse when he won in 2016. i had to wait for the i told you so's. anyone can win the POTUS election. The pope, batman or the devil. everyone will get 45% of the vote. The division is more important than the candidate, values, positions, etc. its such a remarkably corrupted system we support now. but we know that...

happy wednesday friends

Edited May 2, 2018 by staboner

[FondrenRoad 4378]

1 minute ago, staboner said:

i have a hard time believing he doesn't get reelected

its extremely hard to stop 35% of the population with that mentality and a system that favors them (the EC)

generally speaking its always hard stopping single issue thinking. the SOBs are simply never going to respond to anything other than their own hate-filled messaging

my wife had a GD collapse when he won in 2016. i had to wait for the i told you so's. anyone can win the POTUS election. The pope, batman or the devil. everyone will get 45% of the vote. The division is more important than the candidate, values, positions, etc. its such a remarkably corrupted system we support now. 

happy wednesday friends

You forget that many of his close midwestern wins come from Hillary pretending those states didn't exist.  All a Dem candidate needs to do is drive angry minority voters in PA, FL, OH, and MI to the polls and they will win.  They should also reembrace Midwest labor unions.  They don't need to mess around too much with pipe dream future blue states like GA and TX in 2020.  Save them for 2024 or 2028.

[David Dennison 18749]

I can't wait for Texas to turn blue. Because it's when not if and that makes me happy.

[staboner 4959]

yeah its coming and accelerating

[FondrenRoad 4378]

13 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

I can't wait for Texas to turn blue. Because it's when not if and that makes me happy.

Yeah, but its still not yet a place where you waste effort on a Presidential campaign.  The Dems have the benefit of being the party that benefits from population growth.  The GOP benefits from population decline.  Eventually, the Midwest will be mostly GOP states and the Dems will take the sun belt.  FL is really the only interesting state because its the only one that experiences real growth in GOP voters due to old people migration.  If I'm a Dem strategist in 2020, I spend the entire campaign in the Midwest and South Atlantic states.  In 2024, I spend a lot more time in Texas and maybe Mississippi and Louisiana.

[David Dennison 18749]

1 minute ago, FondrenRoad said:

Yeah, but its still not yet a place where you waste effort on a Presidential campaign.  The Dems have the benefit of being the party that benefits from population growth.  The GOP benefits from population decline.  Eventually, the Midwest will be mostly GOP states and the Dems will take the sun belt.  FL is really the only interesting state because its the only one that experiences real growth in GOP voters due to old people migration.  If I'm a Dem strategist in 2020, I spend the entire campaign in the Midwest and South Atlantic states.  In 2024, I spend a lot more time in Texas and maybe Mississippi and Louisiana.

Oh, I agree. It's just that Republicans are going to wet themselves when it finally happens.

[Bateshorn 9910]

You know he only won Florida by 100k-ish votes, right?  Jill Stein and Gary Johnson took 270k+ combined.  The State has picked up 300K Puerto Ricans since the storm.

And he will be primaried in 2020. He'll win the primary, but he's going to have 3 or 4 GOP challengers lobbying bombs at him during the Spring, long before Biden, Harris, or Warren go live in the fall.   If I was a bold GOP candidate, I'd strike in 2020 on the off chance that I can beat the Dem and lock up an 8 year term, rather than wait to run against a Dem incumbent in 2024. That's assuming a famous non politician like the Rock doesn't get involved.

Edited May 2, 2018 by Bateshorn

[Incredulity 11568]

2019 and 2020 are going to be an absolute beating, I gotta believe the circus will make 15 and 16 look dignified. 

If Trump is the R nominee election night 2020 will be must watch tv.

[FondrenRoad 4378]

10 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

You know he only won Florida by 100k-ish votes, right?  Jill Stein and Gary Johnson took 270k+ combined.  The State has picked up 300K Puerto Ricans since the storm.

Yep.  I was just pointing out that FL, and maybe AZ also, is the only state where population growth doesn't necessarily equal a move to the left.  While FL cities do grow and add new Dem voters, old scared white people also move to FL in droves and add new GOP voters.  FL is also unique in that it has a large Cuban population that votes GOP because they want a neverending embargo of Cuba.

[Lat22 4004]

He’s going to serve out two full terms. Guaranteed. 

[High Plains Drifter 10989]

17 hours ago, Texas73 said:

I agree with those that think he will resign in 2019. He will hate being president even more when the Democrats take the House.

I agree. Plus the revelations that will eventually come out from the Mueller investigations.

 

 

If he does hang on until the next election, he will win the nomination of course, but lose in the general.*

 

*if the demos don't nominate Hillary2.0. Yes, I know that is a big fat "IF".

[thrillhammer 683]

4 hours ago, Helobious said:

2025. In 2020 he will lose the popular vote by a wider margin than 2016 and win the electoral vote by a way slimmer margin, but he'll be re-elected nonetheless. It's pretty near impossible for an incumbent pres. to lose a reelection bid, I have no idea how Bush pulled it off in 1992. 

wut? in the last 100 years, 8 presidents have won reelection, 5 lost (2 resigned, 2 died).  that's hardly "pretty near impossible".

[EMAWesome 101]

3 hours ago, FondrenRoad said:

You forget that many of his close midwestern wins come from Hillary pretending those states didn't exist.  All a Dem candidate needs to do is drive angry minority voters in PA, FL, OH, and MI to the polls and they will win.  They should also reembrace Midwest labor unions.  They don't need to mess around too much with pipe dream future blue states like GA and TX in 2020.  Save them for 2024 or 2028.

They should but they won't.  The Democrats have shown no signs of doing anything different in 2018 or 2020 than they did in 2016.  They will not learn from their mistakes.  The cronies running the party will not learn anything from 2016.  This is because they think they don't need to learn anything because they already know everything.  If Tim Ryan was running the party they could make a lot of progress in the upcoming elections but he isn't, Tom Perez is and Perez is a radical leftist who has the same opinion of midwesterners and southerners as Hillary Clinton did.  They are going to continue to insult potential voters in those regions and then be gobshitted when they can't understand why those people did not vote for them.

[Brisketexan 104779]

2 hours ago, Lat22 said:

He’s going to serve out two full terms. Guaranteed. 

This.  Because never underestimate (1) the stupidity of the American people.  It's more of a constant than baseball (sorry, James Earl Jones).  And...

16 minutes ago, EMAWesome said:

They should but they won't.  The Democrats have shown no signs of doing anything different in 2018 or 2020 than they did in 2016.  They will not learn from their mistakes.  The cronies running the party will not learn anything from 2016.  This is because they think they don't need to learn anything because they already know everything.  If Tim Ryan was running the party they could make a lot of progress in the upcoming elections but he isn't, Tom Perez is and Perez is a radical leftist who has the same opinion of midwesterners and southerners as Hillary Clinton did.  They are going to continue to insult potential voters in those regions and then be gobshitted when they can't understand why those people did not vote for them.

While that's quite overstated, the core point is point (2) - that we should never underestimate the ability of the Dems to fuck up a sure thing.  Here, I found a secret recording of their most recent strategy meeting...

 

 

[Bateshorn 9910]

31 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

This.  Because never underestimate (1) the stupidity of the American people.  It's more of a constant than baseball (sorry, James Earl Jones).  And...

While that's quite overstated, the core point is point (2) - that we should never underestimate the ability of the Dems to fuck up a sure thing.  Here, I found a secret recording of their most recent strategy meeting...

 

 

This is such a perfect metaphor for the Demcrats.  Have all my rep.

[Anastasis 23404]

Even the democrats can't fuck this up.

 

But I do wonder why some of you are so committed to the political party status quo in this country given your beliefs about both the democrats and the republicans. 

[Anastasis 23404]

In related news, you guys may be right. 

 

 

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

 

 

But I do wonder why some of you are so committed to the political party status quo in this country given your beliefs about both the democrats and the republicans. 

The two parties are like UT and Ohio State.   They have all the money and most of the power.

Third parties are like Texas Lutheran or Western Nebraska.  They can get a good thing going, but it would be downright miraculous for them to win.

It's not that i am endorsing one party over the other, but rather voting for whom I think will fuck us the least.  It hasn't turned well for any of us in quite some time.

Edited May 2, 2018 by slorch

[Sawbonz 27460]

11 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

For the same reason that in my "I hopped in the car with a drunk driver," the smart bet is "they get home alive."

Trump hasn't made it "more likely than not" that some bullshittery (contested election, attempted usurpation of power, etc.) occurs.  What he has done is increased the likelihood of the previously unfathomable and unacceptable.  So, it's not LIKELY that Trump will refuse to leave office if he loses the next election.  But it's more POSSIBLE than it's been in modern memory.  That's the problem. 

You continue to argue against the strawman of certainty, when those around you are only arguing about unacceptable increased possibilities.

Man you really are something. “Unacceptable increased possibilities “ of the republic ending because of trump. 

So you’re saying there’s a chance! /Lloyd Christmas 

I’m glad we have patriots like you keeping watch and sounding alarms. 

 

Also Hugo has it right in the OP. Fucking Hugo is now the voice of reason around here people. 

Edited May 3, 2018 by Sawbonz

[HtownHorn 14574]

13 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

All you two-termers are really harshing my buzz. 

Blame the Dems, they are masters at stepping on their own dicks/vaginas.

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

17 hours ago, slorch said:

That has a lot to do with why he gives no fucks about their opinion.

The guy that retweets every positive for him poll?

/meme with heads tilted back in laughter.

[thrillhammer 683]

20 hours ago, TornACL said:

I guess satire truly is dead.

jean paul satire? yes, he dead.

[EMAWesome 101]

14 hours ago, slorch said:

The two parties are like UT and Ohio State.   They have all the money and most of the power.

Third parties are like Texas Lutheran or Western Nebraska.  They can get a good thing going, but it would be downright miraculous for them to win.

It's not that i am endorsing one party over the other, but rather voting for whom I think will fuck us the least.  It hasn't turned well for any of us in quite some time.

For me I'll use a different analogy.  Does anyone remember the episode of MASH where the mess serves liver or fish for two weeks straight and Hawkeye blows a gasket and orders ribs from some place in Chicago?  For me the Democrats are liver ( I can't fucking stand liver.) and the Republicans are fish(I like fish but I don't want to eat it every day for two weeks straight.)  A competent, intelligent third party for me would be ribs.(I could however eat ribs pretty much any day.)  Now keep in mind if you own a restaurant and your restaurant's specialty is liver and the only other restaurant around's specialty is fish neither the fish or liver restaurant is going to be happy about a rib joint opening up down the street from them.

[Pig Bellmont 8695]

2019 - Trump will resign after the House votes to impeach but before the trial in the Senate concludes. The only potential caveat is Mueller and the timing of any firing or completion of his investigation. I honestly see best case for Trump is impeachment for obstructing justice after Mueller is fired, bc maybe the extent of his crimes will never come to light. 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23366]

11 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

maybe the extent of his crimes will never come to light. 

After his assault on the FBI and the Justice Department, I seriously doubt they are going to keep anything classified as a favor.

The only things that remain classified are the counterintelligence National Security documents. 

Edited May 3, 2018 by Hugo Stiglitz

[Brisketexan 104779]

10 hours ago, Sawbonz said:

Man you really are something. “Unacceptable increased possibilities “ of the republic ending because of trump. 

So you’re saying there’s a chance! /Lloyd Christmas 

I’m glad we have patriots like you keeping watch and sounding alarms. 

 

Also Hugo has it right in the OP. Fucking Hugo is now the voice of reason around here people. 

Excellent.  So I presume that you drive drunk, and happily hop in a car with a drunk driver?  I mean, your chances of being hurt or killed in a wreck actually only go up slightly compared to having a sober driver.

You aren't very good at risk analysis.  There are two components -- likelihood (percentage chance of it occurring), and consequence (that is, how great is potential harm?)

When the consequence is "death or serious injury," we are -- rightly -- not tolerant of even moderate increases in risk.  If I have a .001% chance of dying while driving sober, I have a .003 chance of dying while driving drunk.  Sure, it's 3X the risk, but as far as "likelihood" goes, it's still pretty minimal.  Yet, every sane and rational person agrees that driving drunk is an unacceptable risk and we shouldn't do it.

The percentage risks -- the likelihood portion of our score -- with respect to Trump are orders of magnitude greater than they were with other presidents.  But, you're correct -- they are still small.  The consequences, however -- when we're dealing with literally the most powerful position in the world, with incredible influence over the global economy, the most powerful military in the world by a large margin, the power and precedents of the office of president itself going forward, incredible influence over our national character (and the list goes on for a long damned time) -- well, the consequences are pretty damned big.

I don't get in a car with a drunk driver.

And I don't appreciate being taken on a ride by a deranged, narcissist, shitbag president.  

My response to both is the same -- pull the fuck over and give me the goddamned keys before you get us all killed.

And you think that makes me an alarmist.

I think that NOT doing that makes you unreasonably irresponsible.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

I hope your legal writing is more concise.  

[Brisketexan 104779]

17 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

I hope your legal writing is more concise.  

Sometimes it is.

Sometimes it isn't.

Respectfully submitted,

Brisketexan, ESQ.

[FondrenRoad 4378]

2 hours ago, Pig Bellmont said:

2019 - Trump will resign after the House votes to impeach but before the trial in the Senate concludes. The only potential caveat is Mueller and the timing of any firing or completion of his investigation. I honestly see best case for Trump is impeachment for obstructing justice after Mueller is fired, bc maybe the extent of his crimes will never come to light. 

Trump is never going to resign.  Admitting defeat or fault isn't in his character.  His entire family and every single one of his advisers could recommend it and he still wouldn't step down.  Ignoring the Senate trial, I could even see him refusing to leave after losing the 2020 election while claiming that there is no way he could have lost and it must have been rigged.  Fox News would trumpet the same shit and we'll be on the verge of collapse because of it.  The only way he's leaving the White House under any circumstance is in handcuffs.  Or I guess they could just trick him into going to Mar a Lago for the weekend and change the White House locks.

Edited May 3, 2018 by FondrenRoad

[FondrenRoad 4378]

8 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Sometimes it is.

Sometimes it isn't.

Respectfully submitted,

Brisketexan, ESQ.

That poem sucks.

[Sawbonz 27460]

32 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Excellent.  So I presume that you drive drunk, and happily hop in a car with a drunk driver?  I mean, your chances of being hurt or killed in a wreck actually only go up slightly compared to having a sober driver.

You aren't very good at risk analysis.  There are two components -- likelihood (percentage chance of it occurring), and consequence (that is, how great is potential harm?)

When the consequence is "death or serious injury," we are -- rightly -- not tolerant of even moderate increases in risk.  If I have a .001% chance of dying while driving sober, I have a .003 chance of dying while driving drunk.  Sure, it's 3X the risk, but as far as "likelihood" goes, it's still pretty minimal.  Yet, every sane and rational person agrees that driving drunk is an unacceptable risk and we shouldn't do it.

The percentage risks -- the likelihood portion of our score -- with respect to Trump are orders of magnitude greater than they were with other presidents.  But, you're correct -- they are still small.  The consequences, however -- when we're dealing with literally the most powerful position in the world, with incredible influence over the global economy, the most powerful military in the world by a large margin, the power and precedents of the office of president itself going forward, incredible influence over our national character (and the list goes on for a long damned time) -- well, the consequences are pretty damned big.

I don't get in a car with a drunk driver.

And I don't appreciate being taken on a ride by a deranged, narcissist, shitbag president.  

My response to both is the same -- pull the fuck over and give me the goddamned keys before you get us all killed.

And you think that makes me an alarmist.

I think that NOT doing that makes you unreasonably irresponsible.

I don’t agree with your analogy so I guess there is no point in continuing to interact. Enjoy your outrage and alarm, and try not to show too much disappointment when trump is gone not with a bang but a whimper

[Brisketexan 104779]

21 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

That poem sucks.

Apologies for not including a mandatory, perhaps rhyming, reference to "your mom."

If I must move for leave to supplement, I will.  

Supplement your mom, I mean.

[Brisketexan 104779]

19 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

I don’t agree with your analogy so I guess there is no point in continuing to interact. Enjoy your outrage and alarm, and try not to show too much disappointment when trump is gone not with a bang but a whimper

Fair enough.  You truly don't see the level of consequences that we're playing with here?  I have to admit -- and I say this in all serious -- that completely baffles me.  I truly don't get how you don't see that we're playing the most dangerous fire here.  And playing with fire is really, really dumb, and really, really bad.  Honestly, I don't get it.  Maybe that's on me, but the end point is that I genuinely cannot understand your take.

[troph 24669]

On 5/1/2018 at 10:00 PM, Texas Jeff said:

In the midterms, the Dems will probably take the House but not the Senate and Congress will look like the last two years of the Clinton administration.  Constant calls to impeach, constant hearings, constant revelations but never votes in the Senate to convict.  Lots of dramatic TV and 24 hour coverage.  Nothing will get done for two years.  Nixon resigned under pressure; Trump will never give in.  I think he's healthy enough to make it to the next election and he'll stay to the end of his term, then leave and complain forever that he got screwed but in spite of that he was the best president ever and did so much in four years.  He will constantly be seeking attention for the rest of his life.

He may lose in the primaries to a more moderate Republican challenger, someone like Kasich.  If not, he will lose to whatever Democrat is on the ticket in 2020.  I always thought that the 2016 winner would set their party up for big losses and a pendulum swing in 2020 and I still think that will happen.  His last day on the job will be January 20, 2021.  He may not come to the inauguration, might just skip it and call in to Fox News later that day.

Trump can change his fate if he is seen as a big part of actually ending the Korean War, the economy stays hot through 2020, Mueller turns out to have not much directly on Trump, or some combination of that.

I think I agree with you but all bets are off if dems take both.  And the odds aren’t in favor of the dems but it’s not an impossibility in this climate.  The grassroots energy and money going to dem candidates is intense - like nothing we’ve ever seen.

[Jiggy-Z 3432]

On 5/2/2018 at 12:25 PM, staboner said:

i have a hard time believing he doesn't get reelected

its extremely hard to stop 35% of the population with that mentality and a system that favors them (the EC)

generally speaking its always hard stopping single issue thinking. the SOBs are simply never going to respond to anything other than their own hate-filled messaging

my wife had a GD collapse when he won in 2016. i had to wait for the i told you so's. anyone can win the POTUS election. The pope, batman or the devil. everyone will get 45% of the vote. The division is more important than the candidate, values, positions, etc. its such a remarkably corrupted system we support now. but we know that...

happy wednesday friends

This.  I was shocked that Obama didn't landslide the 2008 election.  Economy was in the shiter, lame duck president, war, Sarah Palin, etc.  But black, I guess.

[77horn 216]

In the absence of something extraordinary, I think Trump is primaried and loses in 2020.  At which point he makes wild claims about the election being rigged, cheating Dems, etc.

Among the extraordinary things that could happen.

• NK peacefully rejoins SK in a SK style government.  With that he could ride to re-election.  Not likely to happen, but I was shocked when the Berlin wall fell.
• Dems take control of the House/Senate in 2018, and they certainly impeach him and may very well convict. (If so, I kinda agree with Fondren that he will have to be taken from the White House by force.)  But if they try to kill him, they better get him.  If they start it and don't remove him, 2020 will be very ugly,  but he may very well win. 

But I see nothing in Trump that has him resigning, or choosing not to run.  People who think that are likely the same delusional ones who thought he would drop out before the 2016 convention or election.

[Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand 13557]

Spontaneously explodes into grease fire mid-tantrum later this year.

[Brandywine 1315]

On 5/1/2018 at 8:22 PM, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

I hope for resignation, but I bet he makes it to the next election, and if he makes it to the next election, he gets re-elected.  He’ll do the same thing on stage he did last time and people will love him for it like last time and the polls won’t reflect that like last time and people will cast the same ballots as last time.  PT Barnum made a ton of money on people going back to the circus.  Jan 2025. 

If the Dems go down the same road, as far as a candidate like last time, then you are spot on. If he gets reelected, history says his second term will be worse than the first, and when he leaves for good the GOP will be in such bad shape, from the whole experience of the last 8 years, that it will take a decade, maybe two, for them to recover. I keep thinking he's going to expire in office. 

Edited May 3, 2018 by Brandywine

[zork 629]

Trump's dad lived to 94 YO, his mom lived to 88 YO, FWIW.  Not sure they ate much McDonald's.

[Biff Tannen 45554]

If he gets removed from office, can we shoot him out of a cannon?  Would be a fitting end to this circus.