ERCOT Urging For Energy Conservation

[BLKNSTY 289]

are the power outages related to ERCOT or because of shitty infrastructure from local power companies?

The power outages are fundamentally because we are short dependable and dispatchable power in Texas. We can’t get it from anywhere else because we physically aren’t connected to the other power grids in the US. So our only options are generating more power in Texas (which falls on our nat gas power plant owners like NRG, Vistra, etc.) or joining the other power grids (hah). The responsibility to foresee this and manage this through the numerous tools they have available falls to ERCOT, and ERCOT alone, at the direction of the Governor.
There are numerous issues as to why we are short dependable and dispatchable power. NUMEROUS. but those numerous issues all have proven solutions. some of those solutions require tough decisions which you’ll probably be villified over. but if engineering teaches you anything, you can’t keep putting bandaids on issues that can cause catastrophic effects. Which we’ve already seen that once with the lack of weatherization and frozen gas pipes.

For the next 60 days between 2-8PM, we are one 2-3 GW power plant failure away from a pretty detrimental situation. That power plant failure could be cause by a number of different issues. The low hanging fruit/bandaid with asking folks to conserve electricity has already been picked. I don’t have any clue what else ERCOT is doing though.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[52-80 19,263]

Here's a quick podcast with history of why/how Texas' power grid is isolated from the rest of the country

https://99percentinvisible.org/episode/grid-locked/

 

[closetohumping 17,476]

If I lived in Texas I’d boycott Austin energy:

 

[Captainant 27,826]

5 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

If I lived in Texas I’d boycott Austin energy:

 

lmfao which facebook page did you get that off of? I'm suuuuuure it's a genuine image, especially considering how the font is larger than the rest

[utee94 15,868]

looks shopped

[52-80 19,263]

its fake, heres the original

[NorthLoop 14,251]

12 minutes ago, Captainant said:

lmfao which facebook page did you get that off of? I'm suuuuuure it's a genuine image, especially considering how the font is larger than the rest

boy you're a sharp one

[atomheartbevo 89,824]

11 minutes ago, utee94 said:

looks shopped

Just your imagination, sometimes things look like they were resized when an editor adjusts the contrast or brightness.  I changed the contrast on the family photo below and it made my mom's head look smaller.  
 

[Biff Tannen 45,750]

1 hour ago, closetohumping said:

If I lived in Texas I’d boycott Austin energy:

 

Cancel culture!

[Nivek 16,992]

Let's not throw the baby out with the bath water.  The only real solution is to try throwing Greg Abbott into Lake Travis and see if the witch floats.  And I want Jimbo Fisher to stay at aggy for a long long time.  

[dcar00 14,378]

12 hours ago, BLKNSTY said:

The power outages are fundamentally because we are short dependable and dispatchable power in Texas. We can’t get it from anywhere else because we physically aren’t connected to the other power grids in the US. So our only options are generating more power in Texas (which falls on our nat gas power plant owners like NRG, Vistra, etc.) or joining the other power grids (hah). The responsibility to foresee this and manage this through the numerous tools they have available falls to ERCOT, and ERCOT alone, at the direction of the Governor.
There are numerous issues as to why we are short dependable and dispatchable power. NUMEROUS. but those numerous issues all have proven solutions. some of those solutions require tough decisions which you’ll probably be villified over. but if engineering teaches you anything, you can’t keep putting bandaids on issues that can cause catastrophic effects. Which we’ve already seen that once with the lack of weatherization and frozen gas pipes.

For the next 60 days between 2-8PM, we are one 2-3 GW power plant failure away from a pretty detrimental situation. That power plant failure could be cause by a number of different issues. The low hanging fruit/bandaid with asking folks to conserve electricity has already been picked. I don’t have any clue what else ERCOT is doing though.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

so when Austin Energy has 6000 customers without power out of 500K its an ERCOT issue?

agreed that there is a need to build more power generation regardless of what type.

[wildcat09 29,420]

14 hours ago, BLKNSTY said:

The power outages are fundamentally because we are short dependable and dispatchable power in Texas. We can’t get it from anywhere else because we physically aren’t connected to the other power grids in the US. So our only options are generating more power in Texas (which falls on our nat gas power plant owners like NRG, Vistra, etc.) or joining the other power grids (hah). The responsibility to foresee this and manage this through the numerous tools they have available falls to ERCOT, and ERCOT alone, at the direction of the Governor.
There are numerous issues as to why we are short dependable and dispatchable power. NUMEROUS. but those numerous issues all have proven solutions. some of those solutions require tough decisions which you’ll probably be villified over. but if engineering teaches you anything, you can’t keep putting bandaids on issues that can cause catastrophic effects. Which we’ve already seen that once with the lack of weatherization and frozen gas pipes.

For the next 60 days between 2-8PM, we are one 2-3 GW power plant failure away from a pretty detrimental situation. That power plant failure could be cause by a number of different issues. The low hanging fruit/bandaid with asking folks to conserve electricity has already been picked. I don’t have any clue what else ERCOT is doing though.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The real fun part is that every time there's an alert and they ask us to conserve and everything doesn't collapse, the alerts become less effective at inducing conservation. 

[Biff Tannen 45,750]

Looking good right now.

 

[atomheartbevo 89,824]

5 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Looking good right now.

 

Next 15 days for Austin, only one predicted to be below 100, and most 103 and up.  

[HenryJames 66,188]

6 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

2

1,x,x,x

[Hpara759 1,780]

Power off for 15 min ....78626.....was already getting warm before if came back

[luke duke 6,414]

67 at night here. I also have 4 fans. Including a bed fan that blows air under the sheets.

Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

This is the dumbest thing that I’ve ever heard of. How in the hell are you supposed to Dutch Oven the wife with one of those? Get an Ooler.

[phdhorn 6,224]

On 7/14/2022 at 8:59 AM, atomheartbevo said:

Just your imagination, sometimes things look like they were resized when an editor adjusts the contrast or brightness.  I changed the contrast on the family photo below and it made my mom's head look smaller.  
 

Didn't realize you all were any relation:

[Guest]

On 7/13/2022 at 3:39 PM, 52-80 said:

All Energy Sources Matter. 
 

(not facetious…why do people make it into a religious or competitive thing?
a joule is a joule)

But not All Energy Sources were created equal. Some energy sources are much more efficient and have much more utility than others. You know this. @closetojumpingwas right about what he said. FF aren’t going anywhere, we shouldn’t want them to go anywhere, particularly nat gas as it pertains to this discussion, and people blindly clamoring for a broad and swift shift to renewables are absolutely a part of the problem. 

[atomheartbevo 89,824]

Bloomberg saying plants are running far longer without routine maintenance than they used to, grid is strained, more extreme weather than in the past, etc. etc.  basically everything we’ve all talked about.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/things-going-break-texas-power-145408946.html

[Captainant 27,826]

10 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Bloomberg saying plants are running far longer without routine maintenance than they used to, grid is strained, more extreme weather than in the past, etc. etc.  basically everything we’ve all talked about.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/things-going-break-texas-power-145408946.html

I wonder why they're going so much longer without maintenance... Like can they not get parts?

[Guest]

On 7/13/2022 at 2:25 PM, Hermanator said:

If they want people to take this seriously they need to mandate all large venues/buildings not in use turn off all lighting and AC, and all commercial buildings must set their AC to 78 during the 2 to 9 window. 

Just those two things alone if enforced would have us just fine. But no of course no solution that makes sense by eliminating waste from corporate America can ever get done. 

78 is barbaric. 

[Biff Tannen 45,750]

2 hours ago, Porterhouse said:

we shouldn’t want them to go anywhere

wat

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Porterhouse said:

78 is barbaric. 

79 with ceiling fans here during the day. They say it feels 4-5 degrees cooler, so 74-75 "feels like" temp, which is plenty comfortable to me. The folks that live in places that are like an icebox are crazy to me. It's Texas and it's 105 outside. I don't need to be in a deep freeze indoors. Just want some relief from the brutal heat.

[InkaUtexas 26,172]

80. ceiling fans. cold beer and stay hydrated. 

[CooterBrown 18,032]

72 all day.

[Wally Fairway 5,589]

5 hours ago, Captainant said:

I wonder why they're going so much longer without maintenance... Like can they not get parts?

I'm guessing it's because of the plants are taken offline for maintenance that there isn't the capacity to meet demands; and somebody's power is getting shut off

[Surly Bevo 25,178]

I think this coming week may be the week. Seeing 105s to 108s being thrown down for DFW. 103s to 106s for Austin 98s to 101s for Houston and 101s to 104s for San Antonio.

[Biff Tannen 45,750]

4 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

I'm guessing it's because of the plants are taken offline for maintenance that there isn't the capacity to meet demands; and somebody's power is getting shut off

I would also guess that when the football team loses it’s because they score fewer points than the other team. But I’m not sure about that. 

[Hermanator 7,178]

1 hour ago, Surly Bevo said:

I think this coming week may be the week. Seeing 105s to 108s being thrown down for DFW. 103s to 106s for Austin 98s to 101s for Houston and 101s to 104s for San Antonio.

How is that different from every week before this past Thursday? 

[52-80 19,263]

15 hours ago, Porterhouse said:

But not All Energy Sources were created equal. Some energy sources are much more efficient and have much more utility than others. You know this. @closetojumpingwas right about what he said. FF aren’t going anywhere, we shouldn’t want them to go anywhere, particularly nat gas as it pertains to this discussion, and people blindly clamoring for a broad and swift shift to renewables are absolutely a part of the problem. 

They are not mutually exclusive.  Anyone who advocates for an adversarial means of energy production is an idiot and should be kicked off a cliff. 

A farmer in Bangladesh needing illumination in his shack doesnt care if it comes from kerosene, water dam, natural gas, or hamsters running a wheel. 

Noone should be poopoo’ing any one of those. 

[Michael Knight 12,995]

The only way this gets fixed is total collapse... who am I kidding, we literally went thru this exact scenario last year and nothing changed. 

[Captainant 27,826]

7 hours ago, Hermanator said:

How is that different from every week before this past Thursday? 

I think before it was a subset of the cities facing heat waves, now it's every city every day. That's going to be a bigger strain on the grid, which has already been shaky

[Surly Bevo 25,178]

I think before it was a subset of the cities facing heat waves, now it's every city every day. That's going to be a bigger strain on the grid, which has already been shaky

Yep. DFW if the forecasts are correct will be 2-5 degrees hotter for days in a row. Houston at that temp with their humidity might as well be as hot as DFW/Austin/San Antonio.

Hopefully the Saharan dust does its thing.

[closetojumping 62,883]

9 hours ago, Surly Bevo said:

I think this coming week may be the week. Seeing 105s to 108s being thrown down for DFW. 103s to 106s for Austin 98s to 101s for Houston and 101s to 104s for San Antonio.

There will be a lot more wind this week than last week. Of course there’s a shot of something really bad happening, but if they get the wind and some scheduled gen back on, things might be fine. 

Most days, there’s also a good shot of isolated storms during the afternoons around the Houston zone.  We’ll see. 

[Captainant 27,826]

2 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

There will be a lot more wind this week than last week. Of course there’s a shot of something really bad happening, but if they get the wind and some scheduled gen back on, things might be fine. 

Most days, there’s also a good shot of isolated storms during the afternoons around the Houston zone.  We’ll see. 

It's absurd that we're relying on wind to cover for the "more reliable and durable" scheduled generation. We have the capacity to serve the demand, just not the will to pay to maintain it. 

[Guest]

18 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

wat

Of course not. Do you want them gone?

17 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

79 with ceiling fans here during the day. They say it feels 4-5 degrees cooler, so 74-75 "feels like" temp, which is plenty comfortable to me. The folks that live in places that are like an icebox are crazy to me. It's Texas and it's 105 outside. I don't need to be in a deep freeze indoors. Just want some relief from the brutal heat.

68-69 all day every day. 

[Guest]

3 hours ago, 52-80 said:

They are not mutually exclusive.  Anyone who advocates for an adversarial means of energy production is an idiot and should be kicked off a cliff. 

A farmer in Bangladesh needing illumination in his shack doesnt care if it comes from kerosene, water dam, natural gas, or hamsters running a wheel. 

Noone should be poopoo’ing any one of those. 

I agree. That’s my point. What can we afford to lose the least, and what is more criticized?

[Dahobbs 17,692]

31 minutes ago, Porterhouse said:

I agree. That’s my point. What can we afford to lose the least, and what is more criticized?

Coal is the most criticized (and rightly so). It is expensive, dangerous to mine, and has profound health and environmental consequences. It is dying and deserves to die. The ideal economic mix is probably 70-85% renewables and the rest natural gas + nuclear (if it ever becomes economic). I think we are moving that direction at a fairly quick pace. Getting above the 80% mark with renewables is difficult because it requires a lot of over capacity and either significant storage and/or robust connections between regions. 

[PTINS 3,485]

1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

Coal is the most criticized (and rightly so). It is expensive, dangerous to mine, and has profound health and environmental consequences. It is dying and deserves to die. The ideal economic mix is probably 70-85% renewables and the rest natural gas + nuclear (if it ever becomes economic). I think we are moving that direction at a fairly quick pace. Getting above the 80% mark with renewables is difficult because it requires a lot of over capacity and either significant storage and/or robust connections between regions. 

You are right in that ~ 80%  renewables implies tremendous overcapacity in 24/7 energy production, on the order of 60,000 MW.  That scenario, having 80% renewables also means ~ 50-60,000 MW of “idle capacity”, a lot of which is hot & running at reduced capacity, just in case it’s needed.  Somebody has to pay for capacity that is running but not producing commercial quantities of power.  

Regulated nightmare in an unregulated world, particularly with “peak shaving, for profit” power plants; running & selling 70,000 MW of production from 100,000 MW of connected and “able to produce” power. I assume wind & solar can sell whatever they produce, or is it “capped” at the upper end of production v. capacity? Is the hierarchy satisfy demand, sort it out later?

 

 

[Dahobbs 17,692]

23 minutes ago, PTINS said:

You are right in that ~ 80%  renewables implies tremendous overcapacity in 24/7 energy production, on the order of 60,000 MW.  That scenario, having 80% renewables also means ~ 50-60,000 MW of “idle capacity”, a lot of which is hot & running at reduced capacity, just in case it’s needed.  Somebody has to pay for capacity that is running but not producing commercial quantities of power.  

Regulated nightmare in an unregulated world, particularly with “peak shaving, for profit” power plants; running & selling 70,000 MW of production from 100,000 MW of connected and “able to produce” power. I assume wind & solar can sell whatever they produce, or is it “capped” at the upper end of production v. capacity? Is the hierarchy satisfy demand, sort it out later?

 

 

Capacity markets are a solved problem. 

[miguelito 11,313]

Just lost power in Boerne.

We didn't lose power once during the big freeze last year.

[FartingMonk 3,608]

9 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Capacity markets are a solved problem. 

Please explain because if this were the case we would not have this thread.

[utee94 15,868]

13 minutes ago, miguelito said:

Just lost power in Boerne.

We didn't lose power once during the big freeze last year.

Doesn't look like a state issue, should probably check with your local power company.

[Brisketexan 105,438]

Please explain because if this were the case we would not have this thread.

He means “elsewhere.” The answer to the Texas question of “how do we make sure there’s enough generation when we hit peak demand?” he already been answered in lots of places: create a capacity market.
We also need to accelerate large-scale transmission projects to get solar and wind generation from west Texas to the rest of the state. The need is known. The projects are largely identified. But until there is enough generation online to make the transmission profitable enough, the projects won’t happen.
When it comes to life-sustaining utilities, laissez faire capitalism is pretty shitty at meeting the need. It follows max profit (as it is supposed to do) instead of ensuring that the public need is sufficiently met. Maximum profit comes when supply is at or just below demand. Supply exceeding demand is very, very good for people who need the thing being supplied. It is very, very bad for businesses trying to make a hefty profit off of that thing. Guess which one Texas leadership has decided should be the winner?
It ain’t you.

[Biff Tannen 45,750]

4 hours ago, Porterhouse said:

Of course not. Do you want them gone?

Eventually, yes.  I would love to Thanos snap them out of existence right this minute, but technology and political will has to catch up.

[Dahobbs 17,692]

46 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

Please explain because if this were the case we would not have this thread.

How to implement them is solved. Texas's failure to do so is a choice. 

[Dahobbs 17,692]

38 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

He means “elsewhere.” The answer to the Texas question of “how do we make sure there’s enough generation when we hit peak demand?” he already been answered in lots of places: create a capacity market.
We also need to accelerate large-scale transmission projects to get solar and wind generation from west Texas to the rest of the state. The need is known. The projects are largely identified. But until there is enough generation online to make the transmission profitable enough, the projects won’t happen.
When it comes to life-sustaining utilities, laissez faire capitalism is pretty shitty at meeting the need. It follows max profit (as it is supposed to do) instead of ensuring that the public need is sufficiently met. Maximum profit comes when supply is at or just below demand. Supply exceeding demand is very, very good for people who need the thing being supplied. It is very, very bad for businesses trying to make a hefty profit off of that thing. Guess which one Texas leadership has decided should be the winner?
It ain’t you.

I don't necessarily agree this is a fundamental limitation of capitalism. The problem is that, like our market for healthcare, our market for energy is opaque and has inadequate connections between consumers and the demand/supply equation. People want energy resilience, but that demand need isn't sufficiently communicated to the market. A completely rational market would have a demand for energy resilience met by suppliers. Sometimes we have to help markets work as efficiently as their supposed to, and that is where regulation comes in. 

[FartingMonk 3,608]

4 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

How to implement them is solved. Texas's failure to do so is a choice. 

There is a lot of blame to go around but I think the biggest problem is no one knows how to move forward without significant risk in terms of what to build because of this ever evolving energy policy put out by our leaders in charge.  We want to blame the private guys but they have to make money too.  What type of energy is the flavor of the week today might not be when those units go up.  Right now we have everyone sucking natural gas dick but it hasn't been that long where it has been cheap.  That's a relatively new thing.   We keep talking up nuclear but I remember when it was the bastard child.  Those companies choose wrong and it will put them in bankruptcy.  

[Dahobbs 17,692]

1 minute ago, FartingMonk said:

There is a lot of blame to go around but I think the biggest problem is no one knows how to move forward without significant risk in terms of what to build because of this ever evolving energy policy put out by our leaders in charge.  We want to blame the private guys but they have to make money too.  What type of energy is the flavor of the week today might not be when those units go up.  Right now we have everyone sucking natural gas dick but it hasn't been that long where it has been cheap.  That's a relatively new thing.   We keep talking up nuclear but I remember when it was the bastard child.  Those companies choose wrong and it will put them in bankruptcy.  

I agree with a lot of this. Our market isn't truly free. It is run by the government and doesn't sufficiently address true demand. That makes is difficult for private actors to actually address our needs.