ERCOT Urging For Energy Conservation

[Armybrat 40,851]

6 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

 About General Milley’s comments on US military drag shows, has he never crossed a geographic line with the pollywogs and witnessed what the Navy shellbacks are up to?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/08/18/gen-milley-ukraine-tuberville-wokeness/

 

 

Wrong thread, dammit.

Mods please delete.

[Judge Roybeanbag 11,819]

1 minute ago, Armybrat said:

Wrong thread, dammit.

Mods please delete.

Need more marbles.   Glug.  

[Armybrat 40,851]

Been losing too many lately.

[utee94 15,832]

10 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

 About General Milley’s comments on US military drag shows, has he never crossed a geographic line with the pollywogs and witnessed what the Navy shellbacks are up to?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/08/18/gen-milley-ukraine-tuberville-wokeness/

 

 

 

3 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

Wrong thread, dammit.

Mods please delete.

 

[Judge Roybeanbag 11,819]

Just now, Armybrat said:

Been losing too many lately.

Welcome to the party, Pal.  

[JMFP 1,120]

I try to stay away from this thread because as a system operator most of yall's conversation is over my head but I did decide to catch up on the last page.

All I can add is about burying transmission lines is you have to deal with Ferranti rise which is a lot worse on buried cables, which is why I've been told we don't do it much. Not much of a big deal on distribution lines but nobody wants the added equipment on the transmission system. 

And about line losses - I can tell you live, real time, right now I'm looking at a 32 mile long 345kV line one end is sending 426 mW and the other end is receiving 420 mW. But my 93 mile section of 345 line is actually a couple mW higher on the receiving end but it isn't carrying much load so it's just a big capacitor right now. And I dunno what a substation in the middle would do about line losses? Line loss is line loss and having a bus in the middle wouldn't do fuck all? Maybe they mean it's mitigated from another line coming in? But the loss is still there, just part of doing business, it's accounted for but not considered a big deal. 

[Brisketexan 105,154]

1 minute ago, JMFP said:

you have to deal with Ferranti rise

Ferranti?

Shut up, nerd!

[royiv 9,325]

11 minutes ago, utee94 said:

You're right, we shouldn't be discussing energy transmission on the Energy Conservation thread.

Tell me all about Charleston, South Carolina...

Talking about something that is pie in the sky never going to happen is pointless. It's a squirrel distracting a dog from actually fixing the fuck-up that is ERCOT.

[utee94 15,832]

Ferranti Rise would be a good name for an emo punk band.

 

[JMFP 1,120]

4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Ferranti?

Shut up, nerd!

[Judge Roybeanbag 11,819]

1 hour ago, JMFP said:

I try to stay away from this thread because as a system operator most of yall's conversation is over my head but I did decide to catch up on the last page.

All I can add is about burying transmission lines is you have to deal with Ferranti rise which is a lot worse on buried cables, which is why I've been told we don't do it much. Not much of a big deal on distribution lines but nobody wants the added equipment on the transmission system. 

And about line losses - I can tell you live, real time, right now I'm looking at a 32 mile long 345kV line one end is sending 426 mW and the other end is receiving 420 mW. But my 93 mile section of 345 line is actually a couple mW higher on the receiving end but it isn't carrying much load so it's just a big capacitor right now. And I dunno what a substation in the middle would do about line losses? Line loss is line loss and having a bus in the middle wouldn't do fuck all? Maybe they mean it's mitigated from another line coming in? But the loss is still there, just part of doing business, it's accounted for but not considered a big deal. 

I defer to your expertise.  But I’m still gonna bitch on Facebook, because America! 

[Steel Shank 9,428]

I buried a line last night. A seed transmission line.

[Judge Roybeanbag 11,819]

1 minute ago, Steel Shank said:

I buried a line last night. A seed transmission line.

I’m not seeing any pipe being laid.  Much disappointment.  

[Steel Shank 9,428]

10 minutes ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

I’m not seeing any pipe being laid.  Much disappointment.  

I'll do you a solid and try and record tonight. Will post afterward. 

You're welcome.

[elfenix 34,310]

9 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

It's also a problem with everyone who screams about wind power wind power wind power. Building more wind power in the panhandle...isn't helping Houston. Ditto solar. It helps Dallas. No power generator or operator, like ERCOT, is going to spend the money for a gallon of gasoline to get 1/10th of a tank of gas to someone in Houston, as a crude example. 
 

there's a big transmission project being built that's going to move wind power from central wyoming to vegas and beyond.  that's 700 miles as built.  midland to houston is ~425 miles as the crow flies.  i think it can be done.

Edited August 19, 2023 by elfenix

[Judge Roybeanbag 11,819]

Conduit.  Steel Shank lays it down, one mile at a time.  

[Biff Tannen 45,691]

If this new “ambient temperature copper” thing in the nerds forum is true, wouldn’t that solve the transmission lines being a billion degrees thing?  I understand about 9 words of that thread. 
 

What I do know is that walking underneath the transmission lines in the Southern California desert was wild. Dead silent in the wilderness, but when you get to those things it sounds like a massive bug zapper. 

[TKthunder2 4,992]

You guys know they are building wind farms in the middle of the Texas triangle. Drive by Hubbard or Mart and there’s a bunch of them. Obviously not as many as out West but it’s growing pretty quickly because they demand is there.

https://www.nexteraenergyresources.com/hubbard-wind/project-overview.html
 

https://www.engie-na.com/wind/prairie_hill/

[deft 6,856]

Weird as shit seeing em around Mexia and Groesbeck

[JMFP 1,120]

10 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

...

What I do know is that walking underneath the transmission lines in the Southern California desert was wild. Dead silent in the wilderness, but when you get to those things it sounds like a massive bug zapper. 

I got to do some 345 hot hand hand training with our linemen (more than) a few years ago. It was wild, we put on a full Faraday suit and went up in the bucket truck. When you reach out for the line sparks come out 8 or 10 inches to your fingers, like those plasma balls they used sell at Spencer's but with out the glass, when you grab on you can feel all the hair on your body stand up. 

 

But yeah those higher voltages lines buzz loader the more load you put on them. 

[JMFP 1,120]

11 hours ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

I defer to your expertise.  But I’m still gonna bitch on Facebook, because America! 

To be honest, my system is on the smaller side and I just have a micro view of the BES system as a whole. And I don't think there is any stigma in the industry against burying transmission lines, its just the cost to do so would be astronomical. Before you even start you would have to renegotiate almost every ROW contract with landowners, hire all the labor, purchase all the new material, install reactors, etc.  It's just a lot more than most companies could afford, but I guess the cost would just be passed down to customers. 

[Bozo_Casanova 26,488]

24 minutes ago, JMFP said:

But yeah those higher voltages lines buzz loader the more load you put on them. 

Did you hear singing in the wire?

[JMFP 1,120]

2 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Did you hear singing in the wire?

Yeah, can hear it from the ground. I don't think the 161 lines hum as much but the 345 and larger ones let off an eerie buzz.

[Guest]

On 8/18/2023 at 7:14 AM, Captainant said:

The lawsuit filed and evidence backed claims by the 25-year energy trader would disagree with your assertion. If you care to, there's a four part investigative series on it. But idk why you're so defensive, its not like you were the ghoul choosing to goose profits while a couple hundred Texans froze to death in their homes. 

From the 3rd part of the investigative series by the Houston Chronicle:

So there's a shitload of attorneys general suing various NG firms that have been winning or forcing them to settle. There's several filings highlighted in the article I link in this post, I encourage you to challenge your assumptions about the morality of your industrial peers trading anonymous lives for personal profit

Macquarie is a fucking Australian bank with a big presence in Houston and natural gas trading. They’re not a “natural gas firm”. Producers - oil and gas companies - did receive windfalls for a short period of time, and absolutely had zero choice in the price they received. Zero. Once again, you have no clue what you are talking about. 

[elfenix 34,310]

someone ran an enron on texas and rex is bigmad it wasn't him. 

[Texzilla58 4,738]

Connecting to the national grid makes sense, don't get me wrong. But everyone thinks that's a massive fix, but it's not. No one here ever talks about or even grasps this concept called Load Loss.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Load-loss_factor
 
I hate math, I suck at it, and this is well beyond my pay grade. But what I can say, generally, is that if you put in a megawatt of wind power into the grid in Lubbuck, that shit isn't making it's way to Houston. That electricity will disappear in the powerlines before it gets there. It's why regional power stations are a necessity. Now, I don't know what the actual loss is over distance, but it's a real fucking thing. So connecting to the US grid isn't helping Houston ever if something goes wrong. 

It's also a problem with everyone who screams about wind power wind power wind power. Building more wind power in the panhandle...isn't helping Houston. Ditto solar. It helps Dallas. No power generator or operator, like ERCOT, is going to spend the money for a gallon of gasoline to get 1/10th of a tank of gas to someone in Houston, as a crude example. 

Build some wind farms in the Gulf of Mexico, that'd help Houston. Or fucking nuclear plants, which will never fucking happen in this system. 

Joining the either regional grid does no good. The issue for Texas is we haven’t built enough reliable new generation to accommodate the massive influx of folks from other parts. Wind and solar can’t do it on demand; NG used to be top of the demand pyramid for turning them on. Texas needs nuclear, and new oil burners.

Other states don’t gen enough and sick power from others. Fuck California and their time for use bullshit and constant rolling brownouts. They need to build more power plants for themselves. It’s why EV conversion is a stupid scam. The proponents think electricity is free.

50% of the energy fed into the total grid dissipates. That is physics. We need more micro generation, better load management, more regional plants. Texas doesnt need the national grid it needs to go the other way with more subautonomous regional grids that can power themselves.

[Biff Tannen 45,691]

1 hour ago, Texzilla58 said:

It’s why EV conversion is a stupid scam. The proponents think electricity is free.

Well this is just not true. 

[Brisketexan 105,154]

3 minutes ago, Texzilla58 said:

50% of the energy fed into the total grid dissipates.

Wait....are you contending that we lose 50% of electricity in the process of transmission and distribution?  Ummmm....WTF???  You're off by ten fucking times.  It's around 5%.

And no, EV conversion isn't stupid, either (not having enough generation is bad, but EV conversion isn't).

ICE car: 100% of its power is generated by burning fossil fuels.

EV car, charged in a place where 30% of the power at the time of charging comes from renewables: is 70% powered by burning fossil fuels.

The EV car is responsible for less burned fossil fuel than an ICE car.  No, it's not a 100% reduction, but it IS a reduction.

I agree, STRONGLY, that nuclear energy MUST be part of the solution.  It's long past the time when we need to put it front and center.  Sure, there's the problem of what to do with the spent fuel.  But we're already seeing the problem of, oh, I don't know, the fucking world being on fire.  Let's address the immediate problem, and NOW.

[Dahobbs 17,625]

59 minutes ago, Texzilla58 said:

Joining the either regional grid does no good. The issue for Texas is we haven’t built enough reliable new generation to accommodate the massive influx of folks from other parts. Wind and solar can’t do it on demand; NG used to be top of the demand pyramid for turning them on. Texas needs nuclear, and new oil burners.

Other states don’t gen enough and sick power from others. Fuck California and their time for use bullshit and constant rolling brownouts. They need to build more power plants for themselves. It’s why EV conversion is a stupid scam. The proponents think electricity is free.

50% of the energy fed into the total grid dissipates. That is physics. We need more micro generation, better load management, more regional plants. Texas doesnt need the national grid it needs to go the other way with more subautonomous regional grids that can power themselves.

Everything you have said is wrong. 

[jimmyjazz 45,976]

Today I learned about the Ferranti effect.  Cool.  I guess the earth creates a different dielectric boundary around the cable?

It seems to be exacerbated by long runs and higher power, so it might still be a reasonable stopgap in urban areas where raised power lines wreak all kinds of havoc when it . . . winters.

[YGIFS 19,452]

50% is lost to dissipation?  I had no idea.  Is that true across all types of energy from hydrocarbons to renewables to biofuels to animal power?  Like when we used horses to transport people and cargo across a certain distance.  Would we just get out of the wagon at the end, look at the 6 horses and just shoot three of them for efficiency?  

[utee94 15,832]

1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

Today I learned about the Ferranti effect.  Cool.  I guess the earth creates a different dielectric boundary around the cable?

It seems to be exacerbated by long runs and higher power, so it might still be a reasonable stopgap in urban areas where raised power lines wreak all kinds of havoc when it . . . winters.

Yes it's definitely less of a problem for local distribution compared to long runs of HV transmission lines.

[Homercles 10,206]

Instead of bickering over transmission losses, can we switch to bitching about large businesses being practically exempt from reduction efforts?  Not just keeping their lights/AC blazing at all hours, but also watering their landscaping frequently?

Oh boo hoo. You may incur a $100k loss if some of your landscaping dies…good thing you’ve got Right To Work, tax breaks, lax labor safety laws, etc on your side.  

[swraith 347]

1 hour ago, Texzilla58 said:

Joining the either regional grid does no good. The issue for Texas is we haven’t built enough reliable new generation to accommodate the massive influx of folks from other parts. Wind and solar can’t do it on demand; NG used to be top of the demand pyramid for turning them on. Texas needs nuclear, and new oil burners.

Other states don’t gen enough and sick power from others. Fuck California and their time for use bullshit and constant rolling brownouts. They need to build more power plants for themselves. It’s why EV conversion is a stupid scam. The proponents think electricity is free.

50% of the energy fed into the total grid dissipates. That is physics. We need more micro generation, better load management, more regional plants. Texas doesnt need the national grid it needs to go the other way with more subautonomous regional grids that can power themselves.

This has to be a troll post.

 

new oil burners? no one in the US is building new oil burning power plants.  They are incredibly cost inefficient based on their fuel cost and their pollution levels are absurd.

Texas is theoretically getting a new nuclear plant.  We will see if it actually gets built.

Dow, X-energy to drive carbon emissions reductions through deployment of advanced small modular nuclear power

 

As Brisket stated, Transmission and Distribution losses are nowhere near 50%. Here is a citation for Brisket's posted 5%.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

 

 

The 2 areas ERCOT could easily import from are SPP (lots of wind) and MISO.  Both of those have reserve margin capacity that ERCOT could import from.  In theory, ERCOT could import more from Mexico as well, but that is far more complicated, from a political perspective.  CFE (Mexico Electric Utility) already does importing and exporting across the small DC Tie.

[Biff Tannen 45,691]

1 hour ago, Homercles said:

Instead of bickering over transmission losses, can we switch to bitching about large businesses being practically exempt from reduction efforts?  Not just keeping their lights/AC blazing at all hours, but also watering their landscaping frequently?

Oh boo hoo. You may incur a $100k loss if some of your landscaping dies…good thing you’ve got Right To Work, tax breaks, lax labor safety laws, etc on your side.  

I've been saying this all summer and the past couple of summers as well.  It's complete horse shit.

[jimmyjazz 45,976]

30 minutes ago, Homercles said:

Instead of bickering over transmission losses, can we switch to bitching about large businesses being practically exempt from reduction efforts?  Not just keeping their lights/AC blazing at all hours, but also watering their landscaping frequently?

Oh boo hoo. You may incur a $100k loss if some of your landscaping dies…good thing you’ve got Right To Work, tax breaks, lax labor safety laws, etc on your side.  

Hey man, if you don't appreciate beautiful architecture and landscape design, I can't help you.

[Kringelbert Fishtybuns 943]

Ooh buddy

ERCOT pretty early on the projected capacity shortage watch last night.

The evenings are going to be tight through the weekend.

[Guest]

44 minutes ago, Kringelbert Fishtybuns said:

Ooh buddy

ERCOT pretty early on the projected capacity shortage watch last night.

The evenings are going to be tight through the weekend.

First time I've seen the projected supply to be under demand, though I don't check every day.

[Dahobbs 17,625]

9 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

First time I've seen the projected supply to be under demand, though I don't check every day.

Check out the 6-day:

 

Looks like a drop in wind generation over the next few days. 

Edited August 24, 2023 by Dahobbs

[Eastwood 4,394]

9 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

First time I've seen the projected supply to be under demand, though I don't check every day.

It did this last week, as well. First time I had seen it since Uri. 

[Biff Tannen 45,691]

1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

Check out the 6-day:

 

So this is basically when solar dies down and the gas plants are offline right?  For three straight days now, local news has been reporting that "unexpected lack of generation" from gas plants has been an issue.  I don't see how they can take stuff offline in the hottest (historically) time of the year.

[Guest]

I think those "getting close" points are pretty normal for this summer. But it actually dips below the demand forecast on today's chart. We'll see. 

If there's good news, after this summer I've lost the will to live. So if I bake to death...

[Dahobbs 17,625]

Just now, Biff Tannen said:

So this is basically when solar dies down and the gas plants are offline right?  For three straight days now, local news has been reporting that "unexpected lack of generation" from gas plants has been an issue.  I don't see how they can take stuff offline in the hottest (historically) time of the year.

It's when solar dies down yes. But the issue appears to be that wind generation is expected to be significantly down in comparison to usual for that time of day. Whether there is also an issue of gas generation being unexpectedly unavailable, I can't say. 

[Beau Vine 54,254]

31 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

I don't see how they can take stuff offline in the hottest (historically) time of the year.

Because they make more money that way, dummy.

[Bozo_Casanova 26,488]

1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

Whether there is also an issue of gas generation being unexpectedly unavailable

[YGIFS 19,452]

Can we get wind turbines with frickin' lasers attached to the tops?  

[Brisketexan 105,154]

11 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

Can we get wind turbines with frickin' lasers attached to the tops?  

See, THAT'S how you get windmill cancer.

Geez, do I have to explain everything to y'all around here?  It's like I'm playing cards with my brother's kids.

[YGIFS 19,452]

I was out on a date once with a Dermatologist and she was pretty and all, but I just thought she over-hyped her position as a "Doctor." I mean, she's one step away from working at a Clinique counter.  Skin is easy.  You wash it, you dry it, that's it.  My friend jokingly referred to her as Pimple-Popper, M.D.  So we're sitting in this restaurant and this guy comes up to our table, almost sobbing, and thanks this "doctor" for saving his life.  And I skeptically asked, "She saved your life?"  And he said, "Yes, I had Wind Cancer."  And embarrassingly I mumbled to myself in shame, "wind cancer!"

Once I did my own research and learned how many people, and birds sadly, get Wind Cancer each year, I became adamantly anti-Wind Power.  That, and the real estate and grid logistics and jet stream realities of it all.  We're starting on a mini-nuclear project though with a natural gas company out in Odessa of all things.  Supposed to go out there this Autumn for the first site evaluation.  Before I go, I think I'll show my 4 year old "The China Syndrome" to explain what this is, that's age-appropriate right?  

[PTINS 3,472]

57 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

So this is basically when solar dies down and the gas plants are offline right?  For three straight days now, local news has been reporting that "unexpected lack of generation" from gas plants has been an issue.  I don't see how they can take stuff offline in the hottest (historically) time of the year.

The "local news" has an agenda, a combination of ignorance, hunting for clicks, and an intent to cater to their audience, ...

Re: ERCOT Fuel Mix from yesterday, 08 23 2023.

Coal & Nuclear (at the bottom) are the "base supply", always on with little variation.

Solar & Wind (at the top) are the "intermittent supply", on/off based on variable atmospheric conditions, with solar having the most extreme variation.

Natural Gas (in the middle) is the swing supply, on/off or increased/decreased based on the supply demand profile.

Notice how the wind generation tapers off in the early morning hours and there is a slight increase in gas generation. As solar generation begins and wind generation increases, the increasing "renewable" supply is ~ equivalent to increasing demand, and there is a marginal change to gas generation. As demand increases through the hottest part of the day, the renewable supply is max'd out and the new supply is ~ 100%  generated by natural gas. As the solar and wind power generation decreases in the late afternoon, gas power generation increases and peaks to satisfy the increasing demand profile.

THE ONLY THINGS PREVENTING NATURAL GAS POWER GENERATION FROM HAVING A SMOOTH SUPPLY PROFILE IS THAT, (i) there is not enough gas, or (ii) NATURAL GAS POWER GENERATION IS "INTENTIONALLY THROTTLED (by ERCOT)" AS IT IS SIMPLY NOT NEEDED. (Yes, I am intentionally shouting because this same shit is posted every damn day I look over here, which thankfully, is about once every 3-4 weeks.)

The "unexpected lack of generation" is simply an ignorance of not being able to understand a simple concept, that at a specific point in time, it is simply not needed due to the availability of other supply, primarily solar.  The natural gas power generation is reduced, per ERCOT, because it is not needed on a real time basis. Please note how the power generation profile for natural gas very closely tracks the total supply/demand profile, which is indicative of the natural gas supply being the primary swing (variable) supply in the power generation portfolio.

Ii is not that complicated, if you need more power, burn more gas.

With that said, a cloud, or a tropical storm, drifting over a solar array can be offset by existing operating facilities ramping up production, on demand.  A major generation facility dropping offline or a transmission line interruption is a much different issue. 

[Kringelbert Fishtybuns 943]

2 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

So this is basically when solar dies down and the gas plants are offline right?  For three straight days now, local news has been reporting that "unexpected lack of generation" from gas plants has been an issue.  I don't see how they can take stuff offline in the hottest (historically) time of the year.

It’s the transition from the sun going down, but it’s too hot for the wind to blow.

Forced outages aren’t high right now.  It’s just fucking hot at the end of a fucking hot summer when units have been running full blast for a long time.  Based on day ahead prices, anybody capable moving electrons would be doing so.  The projected demand is looking to exceed the previous record.  Not sure how there is market manipulation at record demand.