ERCOT Urging For Energy Conservation

[crash_davis 23122]

We need more HDMIs.

[Dahobbs 17720]

14 minutes ago, PTINS said:

The "local news" has an agenda, a combination of ignorance, hunting for clicks, and an intent to cater to their audience, ...

Re: ERCOT Fuel Mix from yesterday, 08 23 2023.

Coal & Nuclear (at the bottom) are the "base supply", always on with little variation.

Solar & Wind (at the top) are the "intermittent supply", on/off based on variable atmospheric conditions, with solar having the most extreme variation.

Natural Gas (in the middle) is the swing supply, on/off or increased/decreased based on the supply demand profile.

Notice how the wind generation tapers off in the early morning hours and there is a slight increase in gas generation. As solar generation begins and wind generation increases, the increasing "renewable" supply is ~ equivalent to increasing demand, and there is a marginal change to gas generation. As demand increases through the hottest part of the day, the renewable supply is max'd out and the new supply is ~ 100%  generated by natural gas. As the solar and wind power generation decreases in the late afternoon, gas power generation increases and peaks to satisfy the increasing demand profile.

THE ONLY THINGS PREVENTING NATURAL GAS POWER GENERATION FROM HAVING A SMOOTH SUPPLY PROFILE IS THAT, (i) there is not enough gas, or (ii) NATURAL GAS POWER GENERATION IS "INTENTIONALLY THROTTLED (by ERCOT)" AS IT IS SIMPLY NOT NEEDED. (Yes, I am intentionally shouting because this same shit is posted every damn day I look over here, which thankfully, is about once every 3-4 weeks.)

The "unexpected lack of generation" is simply an ignorance of not being able to understand a simple concept, that at a specific point in time, it is simply not needed due to the availability of other supply, primarily solar.  The natural gas power generation is reduced, per ERCOT, because it is not needed on a real time basis. Please note how the power generation profile for natural gas very closely tracks the total supply/demand profile, which is indicative of the natural gas supply being the primary swing (variable) supply in the power generation portfolio.

Ii is not that complicated, if you need more power, burn more gas.

With that said, a cloud, or a tropical storm, drifting over a solar array can be offset by existing operating facilities ramping up production, on demand.  A major generation facility dropping offline or a transmission line interruption is a much different issue. 

All of this is true. But there still could also be unexpected unavailability of natural gas capacity (e.g., a generation facility dropping offline or being unable to spin up). I don't have any evidence that is the case here.  We'd have to see these alleged local news reports to understand and verify whatever is being said. From my view it looks like this potential shortage is due to high demand and lower than typical wind generation. That's always going to be problem when a grid has relatively tight margins between peak demand and peak maximum capacity. 

Edited August 24, 2023 by Dahobbs

[Evil Bill Obrien 3310]

3 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

I think those "getting close" points are pretty normal for this summer. But it actually dips below the demand forecast on today's chart. We'll see. 

If there's good news, after this summer I've lost the will to live. So if I bake to death...

Glad its not just me who's been beaten into near submission by this summer. 

 

 

[Dahobbs 17720]

Slightly good news, wind, so far, is trending above estimates. 

[Horns99 169]

It’s the transition from the sun going down, but it’s too hot for the wind to blow.
Forced outages aren’t high right now.  It’s just fucking hot at the end of a fucking hot summer when units have been running full blast for a long time.  Based on day ahead prices, anybody capable moving electrons would be doing so.  The projected demand is looking to exceed the previous record.  Not sure how there is market manipulation at record demand.

This is it. Shit has been running all out for 2 months straight now. I know a portion of you don’t like to believe it, but shit breaks when it’s 105 out every day & you are running all for days on end with no maintenance. It’s all about the wind, when it fails things get tight on the grid.

[PTINS 3486]

1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

All of this is true. But there still could also be unexpected unavailability of natural gas capacity (e.g., a generation facility dropping offline or being unable to spin up). I don't have any evidence that is the case here.  We'd have to see these alleged local news reports to understand and verify whatever is being said. From my view it looks like this potential shortage is due to high demand and lower than typical wind generation. That's always going to be problem when a grid has relatively tight margins between peak demand and peak maximum capacity. 

Perhaps another way of saying "potential shortage" is "record demand."  The majority of new power generation is from renewables, and I'm guessing the underlying gas generation has not grown in proportion to the population increase.  The conundrum of incentivizing a private, for-profit industry, to build peak shaving facilities that don't run +50% of the time, that sell an absolute necessary commodity, at market conditions and pricing, to a hostile populace, is a no-win situation for every body involved.

Re: unexpected availability, most natural gas facilities (compressor stations, treating & processing plants) use fin fan air coolers to cool down process streams (gas or water), basically large forced draft radiators.

 That is good enough most of the time, but becomes an issue when ambient temperatures are over 100° F. Cooling a process stream  down from 180° F to ~120° F is easy when the ambient air is 70-80° F. When the air is 110° F, cooling down 180° F becomes ~140° F instead of 120° F.  Hotter temperature degrades operating efficiencies and is harder on the equipment, and the people maintaining it.  Envision a NASCAR race in west Texas is August. 

Operating natural gas facilities out west with annual temperature extremes ranging from +115° F to -15° F is challenging to say the least. 

Some times you do stuff that you know is unsafe and against well understood policies, but you gotta do what you gotta do. I cannot forget seeing my mechanics running hoses from pick-up exhausts to the crankcases of a large gas engines to try to warm the cold, syruppy oil.  I shook me head, told them I was never there, quietly got in my vehicle, and left.

[royiv 9404]

19 minutes ago, Horns99 said:

This is it. Shit has been running all out for 2 months straight now. I know a portion of you don’t like to believe it, but shit breaks when it’s 105 out every day & you are running all for days on end with no maintenance. It’s all about the wind, when it fails things get tight on the grid.

It's like we have no way of forecasting these things and being prepared.

[Dahobbs 17720]

20 minutes ago, PTINS said:

Perhaps another way of saying "potential shortage" is "record demand."  The majority of new power generation is from renewables, and I'm guessing the underlying gas generation has not grown in proportion to the population increase.  The conundrum of incentivizing a private, for-profit industry, to build peak shaving facilities that don't run +50% of the time, that sell an absolute necessary commodity, at market conditions and pricing, to a hostile populace, is a no-win situation for every body involved.

I think we are agreeing here. Although the forecast doesn't have us surpassing the record demand from the 10th. It may get to #2 all time though, so that's nice. 

In nice news, wind still trending a couple of GW above the estimate. Real time prices are staying low as a result. 

 

[Biff Tannen 45758]

4 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

The "local news" has an agenda, a combination of ignorance, hunting for clicks, and an intent to cater to their audience, ...

Well it is Fox so...

[atomheartbevo 89895]

Things will be tight this evening.

https://www.ercot.com/gridmktinfo/dashboards

[Nathan Jessep 147]

6 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

From my view it looks like this potential shortage is due to high demand and lower than typical wind generation

 

5 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

Slightly good news, wind, so far, is trending above estimates. 

 

4 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

In nice news, wind still trending a couple of GW above the estimate.

I’m just glad that in one of the fossil fuel capitals of the world we’re dependent on good luck for power generation. Thanks to everyone who did a wind dance this afternoon.
 

This all so dumb.  

[YGIFS 19453]

If it's renewables fault, and I know we have abundant natural gas, remind who put a gun to ERCOT's head and made them make renewables such a large part of their blend?  I know it's not that simple, and we're dumb, but we're not that dumb.

When they start on another rant against renewables, that means capacity issues are pending and warnings will be issued.  It's lock clockwork, start blaming shit before you bother to issue warnings and ask for conservation efforts.  Whereas most sane people would work on production, conservation, and safety for the vulnerable, then if there's time after that-play the hindsight blame game.  But nope, not Texas.  Bag on renewables first then brag about our robust energy supply here, then at 7:00p issue statements asking for people to start conserving energy at 4:00p earlier that day and after the old people have gone to bed.  Then overnight, dick around with some buttons and knobs and only after you've blamed the sun for going down.  

[Dahobbs 17720]

27 minutes ago, Nathan Jessep said:

 

 

I’m just glad that in one of the fossil fuel capitals of the world we’re dependent on good luck for power generation. Thanks to everyone who did a wind dance this afternoon.
 

This all so dumb.  

More wind turbines solves the problem just as more gas power plants would. Or more battery storage. Or more nuclear. Or hydroelectric. Lots of options. 

[Nathan Jessep 147]

2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

More wind turbines solves the problem just as more gas power plants would. Or more battery storage. Or more nuclear. Or hydroelectric. Lots of options. 

But gas gives you 100% predictable generation. Nuclear too. I’m skeptical of the claims that renewables are substantially cheaper, but is there no value place on reliability?

How many basic things in life do we pay a little extra for reliability? But the power generation in our freaking homes we don’t? Think about this. 
 

15 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

sane people would work on production, conservation

Will you flourish more by making more money, or saving money? More production is better. The more energy we consume the more we’ll thrive. 

[YGIFS 19453]

I'm all for more energy.  We're underwriting a mini-nuclear deal right now and am getting more involved on another NG interest in the Cleveland.  I'm willing to pay for more reliability.  Right now, I'm just paying more to pay more.  It's just the order of their priorities that cracks me up right now.

[Nathan Jessep 147]

Just now, YGIFS said:

I'm all for more energy.  We're underwriting a mini-nuclear deal right now and am getting more involved on another NG interest in the Cleveland.  I'm willing to pay for more reliability.  Right now, I'm just paying more to pay more.  It's just the order of their priorities that cracks me up right now.

What’s making it cost more now, if it’s not reliability?

[Biff Tannen 45758]

1 hour ago, YGIFS said:

Right now, I'm just paying more to pay more. 

You're paying more to make rich assholes, that literally killed people, richer.

[Brisketexan 105486]

2 hours ago, Nathan Jessep said:

But gas gives you 100% predictable generation. Nuclear too. I’m skeptical of the claims that renewables are substantially cheaper, but is there no value place on reliability?

How many basic things in life do we pay a little extra for reliability? But the power generation in our freaking homes we don’t? Think about this. 
 

Will you flourish more by making more money, or saving money? More production is better. The more energy we consume the more we’ll thrive. 

We could solve it by implementing a capacity market function in ERCOT.  Functionally every other ISO in North America has one.  We don’t in ERCOT.

Wanna guess why?  Here’s a hint: it’s not due to lobbying by greenie enviro hippies.

The product is most valuable when it is scarce (a plain and intentional function of our relatively unique “energy only” market - the opposite of a capacity market).  More scarcity = higher profits.  Figuring it out yet?

[atomheartbevo 89895]

Holy shit how close did we come to rolling blackouts?  The Mayor of San Antonio put this out earlier

 

[atomheartbevo 89895]

 

[Welch 635]

8 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Holy shit how close did we come to rolling blackouts?  The Mayor of San Antonio put this out earlier

 

I was surprised by that too.  

Houston, Dallas, and Austin news stations just had the garden-variety “hey, try to conserve this evening” stories posted, while the city of San Antonio was sending out emergency alerts to cell phones saying “Be prepared for power outages beginning at 6 p.m.  Outages will be in 15-minute intervals.”

Did the SA leadership just overreact?  Did they misinterpret what ERCOT was telling everyone?  Or did ERCOT tell SA that it was first in line for blackouts?

[FartingMonk 3608]

San Antonio consumes a ton of energy.  They are one of the fastest growing players in the data center game.  Microsoft can't build them fast enough for the government and its AI capability.  Those data centers gobble more energy than Bob Stoops gobbles cock

Edited August 25, 2023 by FartingMonk

[MAUFRAIS 6670]

Also a lot of fat people sitting inside under the air.

[atomheartbevo 89895]

Things looking extremely dicey around 8pm tonight 

[F250 28884]

3 hours ago, Welch said:

Did the SA leadership just overreact?  Did they misinterpret what ERCOT was telling everyone?  Or did ERCOT tell SA that it was first in line for blackouts?

I suspect this was the city and CPS Energy trying to stay ahead of any fallout from potential outages. CPS has been catching a lot of flack ever since the winter storm grid failure. At one point there were calls for the city to sell CPS so it could go private.

Most of the public criticism of CPS is really an ERCOT problem and I suspect this was the city trying to let everyone know that if shit goes down it's because of ERCOT.

[YGIFS 19453]

That sounds quite plausible.  ERCOT's first move every damn time is to blame certain aspects of the energy portfolio.  May as well borrow a page from their playbook if you're a muni or co-op and blame them first, too.  Over-alerting people to energy outages is annoying but if I can tolerate 9 Amber Alert warnings in the middle of the night for Wichita Falls, I could listen to the S.A. Mayor and maybe check in on my older neighbors.  

[Samson's Wig 3195]

12 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Holy shit how close did we come to rolling blackouts?  The Mayor of San Antonio put this out earlier

 

I really like Ron.   Here's hoping he continues moving up the political ladder in the state (or beyond).   He's a good dude and was raised in Austin and educated by our very own AISD (try not to hold that against him, it was a heck of a school district back then).

[Brisketexan 105486]

31 minutes ago, F250 said:

I suspect this was the city and CPS Energy trying to stay ahead of any fallout from potential outages. CPS has been catching a lot of flack ever since the winter storm grid failure. At one point there were calls for the city to sell CPS so it could go private.

Most of the public criticism of CPS is really an ERCOT problem and I suspect this was the city trying to let everyone know that if shit goes down it's because of ERCOT.

This.

If we end up having rolling blackouts in these circumstances, it is 100% an ERCOT issue, not a local provider issue.  The only decision that's in the local provider hand is WHICH areas get shut off for a period.  And they usually have a hierarchy for that already set up (e.g., if you're on a grid segment with a hospital, you're going to be one of the last areas to be shut off).

[YGIFS 19453]

Yeah, I didn't realize for many years that one of their chief responsibilities of Austin Energy is drawing up/maintaining the circuits.  I just knew we were on one that gets shut off a lot even though our HOA is literally between a boutique hospital and a fire station.  Not much you can do, they need power more than we do.  Then one day a few years ago, the Governor's former liaison to ERCOT moves into our neighborhood.  Within weeks, we were affixed to the emergency circuit. 

Only time we lost power was due to downed limbs, can't fix that politically.  Except City of Austin could divert the fucking Bike Lane money to more tree-cutting resources.  But no, 'cause that's not a project you can show off to your donors. 

[utee94 15878]

1 minute ago, YGIFS said:

  Except City of Austin could divert the fucking Bike Lane money to more tree-cutting resources.  But no, 'cause that's not a project you can show off to your donors. 

Solve two problems at once.  Put all the bikers on stationary bikes connected to electric chainsaws, and have them power the crews cutting limbs.

I should run for city council.

[Brisketexan 105486]

Just now, YGIFS said:

Except City of Austin could divert the fucking Bike Lane money to more tree-cutting resources.  But no, 'cause that's not a project you can show off to your donors. 

Got even worse news for you.  Want to know who to blame for the fact that AE was behind on tree trimming (only a few years in to a 10 year project)?  Look around at your neighbors.  AE had been pushing for trimming for YEARS, but the Austin NIMBY/don't touch anything crowd flat-out put the kibosh on it.  Finally, city council relented, and let AE do what they'd been pushing to do (and which all other utilities do).  Years too late.

Lessons from the last two outages:

2021: the ERCOT grid didn't "fail."  It functioned EXACTLY as intended and designed.

2023: AE didn't fail to trim trees, vocal Austin citizens kept them from doing so until it was too late.

We get the utility performance we demand.  On the one hand, by implementing a Republican's wet-dream of a grid (great for profit, occasionally kills a bunch of people, which is when it's at its most profitable), and on the other hand, by pursuing the ultimate tree-hugger hippy agenda of never cutting a tree branch.  Leaving those of us with common sense standing in the middle going "WOULD ALL OF YOU SHUT THE FUCK AND GET THE FUCK OUT OF THE WAY SO I DON'T HAVE TO FREEZE MY GODDAMNED NUTS OFF IN MY OWN DAMNED HOUSE?????"

[Samson's Wig 3195]

9 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

We get the utility performance we demand.  On the one hand, by implementing a Republican's wet-dream of a grid (great for profit, occasionally kills a bunch of people, which is when it's at its most profitable), and on the other hand, by pursuing the ultimate tree-hugger hippy agenda of never cutting a tree branch.  Leaving those of us with common sense standing in the middle going "WOULD ALL OF YOU SHUT THE FUCK AND GET THE FUCK OUT OF THE WAY SO I DON'T HAVE TO FREEZE MY GODDAMNED NUTS OFF IN MY OWN DAMNED HOUSE?????"

Man, that encapsulates what is fucked up about this city so damn well.

[MAUFRAIS 6670]

Solve two problems at once.  Put all the bikers on stationary bikes connected to electric chainsaws, and have them power the crews cutting limbs.
I should run for city council.

Did you graduate from one of Canada’s top business schools with really good grades?

[Bozo_Casanova 26615]

4 hours ago, FartingMonk said:

San Antonio consumes a ton of energy.  They are one of the fastest growing players in the data center game.  Microsoft can't build them fast enough for the government and its AI capability.  Those data centers gobble more energy than Bob Stoops gobbles cock

that's a lot of energy!

[InkaUtexas 26267]

5 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Things looking extremely dicey around 8pm tonight 

If the power goes out, I am walking to my local bar where they keep their beer on ice. Once the ice melts I will leave and walk home. And following the request from my local authorities I will carry a flashlight. 

I am surprised we did not have a problem already. But I might want to ask the big box stores and office buildings if they could turn their AC up a bit. I was at meetings this week in Houston and froze my ass off in the conference room. 

[tokamak 6444]

13 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

If the power goes out, I am walking to my local bar where they keep their beer on ice. Once the ice melts I will leave and walk home. And following the request from my local authorities I will carry a flashlight. 

I am surprised we did not have a problem already. But I might want to ask the big box stores and office buildings if they could turn their AC up a bit. I was at meetings this week in Houston and froze my ass off in the conference room. 

My building - 4 stories, guessing like 200k sf - is at a smooth 68 degrees right now. I'm wearing a hoodie. They don't give a single fuck. Asking homeowners to not wash dishes feels ridiculous.

[YGIFS 19453]

I get that industry and manufacturing need to maintain certain temps and water usage, debate for another time.  But to just keep so much square footage of unoccupied office space cooled like that.  And then to have so many retailers just going until 8pm at 70 degrees?  And the rationale being "Well, we've got to keep Texas moving and in business!"  Yeah, have you met most Texans?  They don't know how to manually open their garage doors, so kinda fucking hard to drive their F-250s to go shopping or out to eat when the fucking door won't open.  

[crash_davis 23122]

[drt 640]

6 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Got even worse news for you.  Want to know who to blame for the fact that AE was behind on tree trimming (only a few years in to a 10 year project)?  Look around at your neighbors.  AE had been pushing for trimming for YEARS, but the Austin NIMBY/don't touch anything crowd flat-out put the kibosh on it.  Finally, city council relented, and let AE do what they'd been pushing to do (and which all other utilities do).  Years too late.

Lessons from the last two outages:

2021: the ERCOT grid didn't "fail."  It functioned EXACTLY as intended and designed.

2023: AE didn't fail to trim trees, vocal Austin citizens kept them from doing so until it was too late.

We get the utility performance we demand.  On the one hand, by implementing a Republican's wet-dream of a grid (great for profit, occasionally kills a bunch of people, which is when it's at its most profitable), and on the other hand, by pursuing the ultimate tree-hugger hippy agenda of never cutting a tree branch.  Leaving those of us with common sense standing in the middle going "WOULD ALL OF YOU SHUT THE FUCK AND GET THE FUCK OUT OF THE WAY SO I DON'T HAVE TO FREEZE MY GODDAMNED NUTS OFF IN MY OWN DAMNED HOUSE?????"

100% this on the trees being trimmed. I called AE about limbs on a line at a job site and they were there and trimmed within 4 hours.
 

The limb on the lines serviced 3 residences, was clearly visible from all 5 backyards that formed the corner, was about 10” in diameter, and had been down long enough that the tree wound had gone grey with UV exposure. How no one had thought this was a fucking problem for months is beyond me. 

[deft 6897]

Solve two problems at once.  Put all the bikers on stationary bikes connected to electric chainsaws, and have them power the crews cutting limbs.
I should run for city council.

You should post your tits. Has done well for others in the past.

[Cap33 396]

A contractor from AE came around in May and put little yellow flags on two limbs in our backyard that they thought needed trimming because of their proximity to the power line. While they were here, I pointed at the limb in the yard behind ours resting on the power line and asked if that was a priority. Response: Oh yes, we'll be coming around in late-June or early-July to take care of it. 

Still waiting. One strong wind gust and our whole block (or more) is fucked.

And why don't these lovely neighbors of ours just trim it themselves? "Oh, we rent."

[Beau Vine 54489]

11 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Things looking extremely dicey around 8pm tonight 

[C-Man 27293]

Reports all over FB that a bunch of Park Cities’ residents do not have power

[atomheartbevo 89895]

13 minutes ago, C-Man said:

Reports all over FB that a bunch of Park Cities’ residents do not have power

Sounds like it's around 1,200 or so

https://stormcenter.oncor.com/

 

[drt 640]

2 hours ago, Cap33 said:

A contractor from AE came around in May and put little yellow flags on two limbs in our backyard that they thought needed trimming because of their proximity to the power line. While they were here, I pointed at the limb in the yard behind ours resting on the power line and asked if that was a priority. Response: Oh yes, we'll be coming around in late-June or early-July to take care of it. 

Still waiting. One strong wind gust and our whole block (or more) is fucked.

And why don't these lovely neighbors of ours just trim it themselves? "Oh, we rent."

if it’s on a live wire is not yours or you neighbors job to trim it. AE is like any other entity. They can’t see in your backyard and that hourly worker may have had no clue how to put that immediate request in the system. 
 

Get the yellow tag number off the closest pole, call them and they will come out. Waiting 2 months is on you, not them.

Edited August 26, 2023 by drt

[Cap33 396]

 

9 hours ago, drt said:

Get the yellow tag number off the closest pole, call them and they will come out. Waiting 2 months is on you, not them.

You're right. I'll call.

[Bozo_Casanova 26615]

13 hours ago, C-Man said:

Reports all over FB that a bunch of Park Cities’ residents do not have power

[MAUFRAIS 6670]

[Nice Guy Eddie 13536]

Texas leaders, the puc and ercot have shown that they will not correct the underlying problems. Blackouts might be the only possible way they are forced to put citizens over corporations. I still see no reason to help by using less electricity.

if you support the current state govt efforts, by all means raise AC temps to 83.

[deft 6897]

Yeah but try taking a pulse on social media. As soon as it happens, it’ll be a nonstop wave of “biden’s America”. No CR.